National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) heads into Monday’s trade with its share price well below early‑November highs, as investors digest full-year 2025 results, a chunky fully franked dividend, ongoing climate and ESG scrutiny, and a shifting interest rate outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Here’s a structured look at what’s driving NAB shares right now – and the key issues to have on your radar before the Australian market opens on Monday, 24 November 2025.
1. NAB share price snapshot before Monday’s open
At the close on Friday, 21 November 2025, NAB shares finished at A$40.56, down 0.78% on the day and roughly 3.9% lower than a week earlier. Market Index
That price leaves the stock about 10% below its 52‑week high of A$45.25, set on 6 November 2025, when optimism around bank earnings and dividends peaked. Financial Times Markets
Key trading and valuation markers as of the last close:
- Last close: A$40.56
- 1‑year share price return: ~3.1% (before dividends) StockAnalysis
- Market capitalisation: ~A$124 billion StockAnalysis
- Trailing EPS (TTM): ~A$2.20 StockAnalysis
- Trailing P/E: ~18.4x
- Forward P/E: ~17.2x StockAnalysis
- Full‑year dividend (FY25): A$1.70 per share, fully franked NAB News
- Historical dividend yield at A$40.56: ~4.2% (about 6.0% grossed‑up for franking, assuming the FY25 dividend is sustained) StockAnalysis
Longer term, NAB has been a strong compounder: one widely cited analysis pegs five‑year total shareholder return well above 150%, reflecting both price gains and reinvested dividends, even after the recent pull‑back. Simply Wall St
2. FY25 results: revenue growth, but higher costs and credit charges
NAB released its full‑year 2025 (FY25) results on 6 November 2025, for the year ended 30 September. The headline numbers were solid but not spectacular – and slightly below what the market had been expecting.
Headline earnings
- Statutory net profit: A$6.76 billion, down about 2.9% year‑on‑year. Asian Banking & Finance
- Cash earnings: A$7.09 billion, broadly flat on FY24 and marginally under consensus forecasts near A$7.2 billion. Reuters
- Underlying profit: up about 1.3%, supported by volume growth and stronger Markets & Treasury income. NAB
- Cash ROE: ~11.4%. NAB
Revenue, loans and deposits
The bank continues to lean heavily on its business banking franchise:
- Total revenue: up 2.9% year‑on‑year. NAB
- Gross loans and advances: up 5.9%. NAB
- Customer deposits: up 7.4% across the year, with management highlighting market‑share gains in business deposits. NAB News
- Net interest margin (NIM): up 3 basis points to 1.74%, but excluding Markets & Treasury and lower liquid‑asset balances, underlying NIM actually ticked down slightly as deposit and wholesale funding costs rose. NAB
Divisional performance (cash earnings growth FY25 vs FY24) underlines the mix:
- Business & Private Banking: +1.6% to ~A$3.33 billion.
- Personal Banking: +9.9%.
- Corporate & Institutional Banking: +4.7%.
- New Zealand Banking: +2.8% (NZ$). NAB
Costs and productivity
Cost control is one of the big swing factors for the investment case:
- Operating expenses: up 4.6%, including roughly A$130 million in payroll review and remediation costs. NAB
- Excluding payroll remediation, expenses rose 3.2%, driven by higher personnel and technology spend, partly offset by A$420 million in productivity gains. NAB
NAB is aggressively investing in automation and artificial intelligence to streamline operations and improve customer service, and has increased its annual productivity target to around A$450 million. News
Asset quality and impairments
The credit cycle is no longer at rock‑bottom:
- Credit impairment charge: rose to A$833 million in FY25 (vs A$728m in FY24), with higher individually assessed charges, particularly in business lending and some unsecured retail. Asian Banking & Finance
- Non‑performing exposures: increased to about 1.55% of loans and acceptances, up from 1.39% a year earlier, largely driven by a small number of business customers. NAB
Asset quality is still described as sound, but the trend is clearly one of normalisation rather than further improvement.
3. Dividends, DRP and capital: still a yield story
For income‑focused investors, the latest dividend settings are a central part of the NAB narrative.
Final dividend and yield
- Final FY25 dividend: 85 cents per share, fully franked, payable on 12 December 2025. Asian Banking & Finance
- Total FY25 dividend: A$1.70 per share, up 1 cent on FY24. rogermontgomery.com
- Payout ratio: about 73.3% of cash earnings, at the upper end of NAB’s 65–75% target band. NAB
At Friday’s close of A$40.56, that implies:
- Historical cash yield: ~4.2%,
- Grossed‑up yield (including franking credits): just under 6%, assuming the FY25 dividend is maintained. StockAnalysis
Of course, future dividends remain at the discretion of the board and will depend on earnings, capital and the broader economic environment.
DRP and Bonus Share Plan
NAB continues to offer a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) and Bonus Share Plan (BSP):
- The pricing period for the 2025 final dividend runs for 10 trading days from 18 November to 1 December 2025, based on the volume‑weighted average price (VWAP). NAB
- No discount is being applied to the DRP issue price for this dividend. NAB
- The last date to vary BSP/DRP participation was 13 November 2025. NAB
For Monday’s session, investors may still see flow effects from DRP hedging and positioning during the ongoing pricing window.
Capital position and buybacks
NAB’s balance sheet remains comfortably above regulatory minimums:
- CET1 capital ratio: 11.7% at 30 September 2025 (Level 2), with a pro‑forma 11.81% after including the sale of NAB’s remaining 20% stake in MLC Life, completed on 31 October 2025. NAB
- Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): ~135%; Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): ~116%. NAB
NAB also wrapped up a A$3 billion on‑market share buyback in March 2025, cancelling around 87.8 million shares, with A$0.6 billion of that repurchased in FY25. NAB
For investors, this combination of solid capital, a high payout ratio and completed buybacks supports the case that NAB is still being managed as a yield‑and‑income stock, even as growth slows.
4. Housing, AI and growth strategy under CEO Andrew Irvine
CEO Andrew Irvine is increasingly defining NAB’s narrative around three themes: business banking, housing, and technology (especially AI).
Housing as “Australia’s greatest challenge”
In recent commentary alongside the results, Irvine described housing as Australia’s “greatest societal and policy challenge”, arguing for faster decision‑making to unlock supply and support economic growth. Reuters
NAB has:
- Reaffirmed a A$60 billion housing affordability financing commitment by 2030, including construction and affordable housing initiatives. News
- Leaned into government‑backed schemes (such as low‑deposit programs) and private capital to share the risk of new lending. Theaustralian
On mortgages, NAB is trying to reduce reliance on brokers:
- Over the past two years, proprietary home‑loan settlements have increased about 46%, and
- Around 41% of mortgages are now written directly through NAB bankers rather than third‑party brokers. News
That shift could help margins and deepen customer relationships, but also makes NAB more exposed to how well its own distribution performs.
AI‑driven efficiency push
NAB is also positioning itself as a technology‑enabled bank:
- The bank is increasingly using AI tools in areas like productivity, process automation and customer service, while being more cautious in applying AI directly to credit decisions. News
- Management lifted its annual productivity target to A$450 million, signalling further cost discipline is expected to come from technology and simplification rather than brute‑force job cuts alone. News
These strategic shifts are central to bullish arguments that NAB can hold or grow earnings even if revenue growth moderates.
5. Climate strategy, nature risk and shareholder activism
Climate and broader ESG issues are becoming more material to NAB’s valuation and brand – and they’re front and centre heading into the 2025 AGM.
2025 Climate Report
On 6 November 2025, NAB released its 2025 Climate Report, prepared with reference to the Task Force on Climate‑related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and its commitments under the Net‑Zero Banking Alliance. NAB
The report outlines:
- Governance and strategy for managing climate risk,
- Sector‑by‑sector transition plans and financed emissions metrics, and
- Progress against previously announced climate targets and financing ambitions. NAB
For investors, it’s a key document for assessing transition risk and alignment with net‑zero pathways.
Withdrawn and remaining shareholder resolutions
Climate‑related shareholder resolutions have been in focus:
- A resolution labelled Item 5(d) – “Customer Transition Plan Approach and Climate Commitments” was withdrawn and will not be put to a vote at the 2025 AGM, after proponents were satisfied with the detail in the Climate Report. Company Announcements
- However, a separate resolution on financed deforestation and nature‑related risk remains on the AGM agenda. The board has recommended shareholders vote against it, but ESG investors and advocacy groups are using it to pressure NAB on deforestation‑linked lending. FS Sustainability
Environmental group Market Forces, for example, has previously criticised NAB’s fossil‑fuel stance and argued that its commitments still leave the bank exposed to deforestation and high‑emissions projects, describing the bank as lagging its peers on climate ambition. Market Forces
For NAB’s share price, the immediate impact is more reputational and long‑term regulatory than short‑term financial, but large institutions are increasingly integrating these issues into risk and valuation models.
6. Operational and regulatory headwinds: jobs, payroll and data
NAB’s transformation isn’t happening in a vacuum, and several operational issues could affect sentiment.
Key recent developments:
- Workforce reshaping: NAB plans to cut around 410 technology and enterprise roles in Australia, while creating about 127 roles in India and Vietnam, as part of an efficiency and capability reshuffle. StockAnalysis
- Payroll remediation: The bank has flagged A$130 million in payroll‑related costs and launched a broader review of staff pay and benefits, contributing to higher FY25 expenses. NAB
- Consumer data rights penalty: Earlier in 2025, NAB paid a penalty of around A$751,000 over alleged breaches of Australia’s consumer data right rules, highlighting ongoing regulatory scrutiny. StockAnalysis
- Leadership changes: NAB has appointed Inder Singh as Group Chief Financial Officer, effective March 2026, adding fresh leadership to the finance function just as the bank navigates a more complex environment. StockAnalysis
These issues add execution risk: they’re manageable for a bank of NAB’s size, but investors will watch closely for further remediation costs, regulatory actions, or cultural concerns.
7. Macro backdrop: RBA on hold, housing running hot, inflation sticky
Bank shares are highly leveraged to the interest‑rate and housing cycle. The current macro setting is mixed for NAB.
RBA: long pause after three cuts
The RBA left the cash rate at 3.6% at its November 2025 meeting, where it has sat since August after three rate cuts earlier in the year. The Wall Street Journal
Key points from the RBA and recent data:
- Inflation has risen back above the 2–3% target band and is expected to stay above it for some time. Reserve Bank of Australia
- RBA forecasts now see trimmed‑mean inflation around 3.2% and headline near 3.7% by mid‑2026. Reserve Bank of Australia
- October labour data showed the economy adding over 40,000 jobs, with unemployment easing to about 4.3% from 4.5%, reinforcing the case for a pause in further cuts. Theaustralian
NAB’s own economic outlook, included in its FY25 results materials, assumes:
- The cash rate stays at 3.6% “for a while”, and
- The next 25bp cut doesn’t occur until around May 2026. NAB
A widely cited property‑market summary notes that NAB has now joined Commonwealth Bank in predicting no further rate cuts in the near term, even as some peers (like Westpac) still expect modest easing in 2026. Realestate
The next RBA decision is scheduled for Tuesday, 9 December 2025, with markets pricing a high probability of no change. Realestate
What this means for NAB
A prolonged hold at 3.6% has mixed implications:
- Margins: Stable rates reduce volatility but also limit the tailwind from falling funding costs; competition for deposits remains intense, which can squeeze NIM. NAB
- Credit quality: Strong employment and resilient GDP growth support borrowers’ ability to pay, but stretched housing affordability and higher rents increase stress for more vulnerable segments. News.com.au
- Loan growth: Previous rate cuts and a hot housing market are supporting credit demand, but higher‑for‑longer inflation and rising living costs may cap how far that can run. News.com.au
For Monday’s session, macro headlines around inflation expectations, housing and RBA commentary will likely keep influencing sentiment toward NAB and the broader bank sector.
8. Valuation and sentiment: has the de‑rating gone far enough?
With the share price roughly 10% below its early‑November peak, the big question is whether NAB now looks fairly priced, expensive or cheap relative to its fundamentals and peers.
External valuation views
A range of recent analyses highlight the debate:
- A Simply Wall St model suggests a fair value around A$37 per share, versus recent trading levels in the low‑A$40s, implying the stock may still be roughly 15–20% overvalued depending on the day you look. It also notes NAB’s P/E around 19x, above a domestic banking industry average near 10x. Simply Wall St
- Dividend‑focused valuations from Rask Media that apply dividend‑discount models to NAB’s fully franked payout arrive at values in the mid‑A$30s, again below where the stock currently trades, though the articles stress the appeal of the franked yield for long‑term holders. Rask Media
- Other commentary points to the recent move from roughly A$45 down to the A$40–41 range as the market “resetting expectations” after a multi‑year run and a modest earnings miss, with concerns centred on margin pressure, rising costs and normalising credit losses. Simply Wall St
At the same time, NAB’s multi‑year total returns, solid capital position and high franked yield remain key parts of the bull case. NAB News
9. Key things to watch for NAB before and after the 24 November open
Going into Monday’s ASX session, investors watching NAB may want to keep an eye on:
- Price action around A$40–41
- Does the stock continue to find support near the current level, or does selling pressure resume as investors rotate out of bank exposures?
- Volumes during the DRP pricing window
- With the DRP and BSP pricing period running until 1 December, there may be technical flows from institutions managing their exposure and hedging DRP issuance. NAB
- Broker and media commentary post‑results
- A swathe of articles – from valuation deep‑dives to broader bank sector outlooks – has already highlighted NAB’s stable but unspectacular earnings, strong franchise and elevated valuation multiples. How investors react to these narratives can influence short‑term sentiment. StockAnalysis
- Signals on climate and ESG ahead of the 12 December AGM
- Further commentary from large super funds, proxy advisers or advocacy groups on the remaining nature‑risk/deforestation resolution – or on NAB’s climate report – could shape longer‑term institutional positioning. NAB
- Macro headlines in the lead‑up to the 9 December RBA meeting
- Any surprises in inflation, wages, retail sales or labour data that change the market’s view of the RBA’s next move will likely ripple through bank stocks, including NAB. The Guardian
10. Bottom line
Heading into the 24 November 2025 ASX open, NAB remains:
- A large, well‑capitalised business bank with strong business and housing franchises,
- Offering a high, fully franked dividend yield supported by robust capital and earnings,
- But facing earnings headwinds from rising costs, normalising credit losses and intense competition for deposits,
- And trading at valuation multiples that several independent models still describe as demanding compared with peers.
How you interpret that mix will depend on your time horizon, risk tolerance and portfolio needs. For some, NAB at today’s levels will look like a defensive income stock with moderate growth. For others, it may appear fully priced given the macro and regulatory uncertainties.
Important note:
This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NAB shares. It does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser and doing your own research before making investment decisions.
