SYDNEY, March 13, 2026, 09:22 AEDT
- National Australia Bank closed out Thursday at A$46.40, slipping roughly 2% from Wednesday’s A$47.32 finish.
- ASX 200 dropped 1.3% in Australia, with the financials index down 1.5% after Brent crude pushed past $100 a barrel.
- NAB shifted its outlook this week, projecting rate hikes for both March and May. Markets, according to Reuters, were betting on a 75% probability of a quarter-point increase next week.
National Australia Bank Ltd shares wrapped up Thursday at A$46.40, slipping roughly 2% from Wednesday’s A$47.32. A new jolt in oil prices rattled the market, sparking a selloff in Australian bank stocks and fueling renewed speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could hike rates again next week.
NAB shares had recently hovered just shy of a record, buoyed by last month’s robust first-quarter update. Now, after slipping roughly 3% from the A$47.96 peak reached on Feb. 18, investors are left gauging a shifting macro landscape versus one of the sector’s standout earnings runs.
NAB’s economics team on Wednesday flagged expectations for rate hikes from the central bank in both March and May, targeting a 4.35% cash rate. Reuters noted market odds now price in a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rise next week—a basis point equals one-hundredth of a percent. Commonwealth Bank economist Belinda Allen said “the balance of probabilities has shifted” and sees hikes on the table for both months. NAB News
Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.3% on Thursday, with financials slipping 1.5%. The index has now shed over 6% for the month. Brent crude finished at $100.46 per barrel—highest mark since August 2022—after attacks on two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters sparked fresh concerns over Middle East supply.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, pointed out that unless there’s some kind of breakthrough regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, risk aversion probably sticks around—the surge in oil keeps inflation fears alive. That dynamic was all it took on Thursday to pull banks down alongside the broader market.
The RBA isn’t committing to a decision yet. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signaled a “genuine” policy debate is on for next week, stressing inflation remains “too high” but noting policymakers see “arguments on both sides” if concerns about weaker growth are factoring in. Reuters
The slide at NAB stands out after February’s Big Four results moved in the opposite direction. Reuters noted NAB’s first-quarter cash earnings climbed 16% to A$2.02 billion. Westpac came in ahead of profit forecasts, ANZ saw a jump in cash profit, and Commonwealth Bank delivered record first-half numbers.
NAB CEO Andrew Irvine said the bank was “well placed” for sustainable growth after the update. Citi analysts, though, described the result as a “very strong headline beat” but flagged the CET1 ratio — the capital buffer — as “the clear negative.” Reuters
Things could tip in either direction over the next few sessions. Phil O’Donaghoe, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, is leaning toward a rate hike as his base case. Still, he flagged that “an amplification of the conflict” might force a pause. Oil prices dropping would likely ease some of the strain on bank shares, but a sharper supply shock would keep inflation worries front and center. Reuters
NAB finished Thursday at A$46.40, still short of its high from last month, as oil, inflation, and the next central-bank move have quickly overshadowed what had looked like a robust bank earnings narrative.
