US Stock Market Today: CME Outage Freezes Futures as Wall Street Eyes Fed Cut, Bitcoin at $90,000+ – What to Know Before the 28 November 2025 Open

U.S. traders are coming back from Thanksgiving to a very unusual Black Friday: stock index futures are frozen after a major CME Group data‑center outage, the cash equity session will close early, the Federal Reserve is almost fully priced for a December rate cut, and Bitcoin is trading above $90,000 even though stocks were shut yesterday. ^[1]

Here’s everything you need to know before the U.S. stock market opens today, Friday 28 November 2025.

Quick snapshot before the bell

Futures frozen: CME Group has halted trading in all Globex futures and options because of a cooling failure at its CyrusOne data centers. That means S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures are not updating as of early Friday. ^[2]
ETFs point modestly higher: With futures stuck, traders are using ETFs instead: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up about 0.3% and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) around 0.4% in pre‑market trading, suggesting a cautiously positive tone. ^[3]
Best Thanksgiving week in 13+ years: Coming into today, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up roughly 2.6%, 3.2% and 4.2% this week, on track for their strongest Thanksgiving week performance in more than a decade, driven by renewed enthusiasm for AI stocks and rising odds of a Fed rate cut. ^[4]
But November still negative: Despite the week’s rally, the S&P 500 is set for its first monthly decline since April, down about 0.4% in November, while global stocks have endured an unusually choppy month amid concern about stretched tech valuations and a long U.S. government shutdown earlier in the fall. ^[5]
Fed cut almost fully priced: Fed‑funds futures now imply roughly an 80–85% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the Fed’s 9–10 December meeting, up from around 30–40% just a week ago. ^[6]
Bitcoin above $90,000: Bitcoin surged past $90,000 while U.S. markets were closed Thursday and is still holding above that level this morning, even as the crypto market remains well below October’s peak. ^[7]
Early close on Wall Street: The NYSE and Nasdaq will shut at 1 p.m. ET for the traditional Black Friday half‑day, in what is typically one of the lowest‑volume sessions of the year. ^[8]
No major US economic data or earnings today: The macro diary is very light; most market‑moving economic reports and big earnings are due next week rather than today. ^[9]

1. CME outage: futures are dark, ETFs are the new compass

The headline issue this morning is the CME Group outage.

A cooling failure at CyrusOne data centers forced CME to halt trading on its Globex platform, freezing futures across currencies, commodities, Treasuries and equities, including E‑mini S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures. ^[10]
CME’s own system‑alert page states that all Globex futures and options remain halted as support teams “work to resolve the issue in the near term” and will provide pre‑open details once a fix is ready. ^[11]
Separate alerts and market notes say BrokerTec’s EU fixed‑income markets have reopened, but all other CME markets are still suspended as of the latest update. ^[12]

Because of the blackout, traders are looking elsewhere for signals:

Reuters reports that SPY is up about 0.3%, QQQ up 0.4% and a Dow‑tracking ETF up roughly 0.3% in pre‑market trading, with CME’s own stock down around 0.7% on the news. ^[13]
Some brokers have suspended trading in affected futures or are relying on internal price models, which raises risk for leveraged products and automated strategies. ^[14]

Why it matters:
This is one of the most significant exchange outages in years. With a holiday‑thinned, early‑closing session, liquidity was already expected to be low; shutting down CME’s futures and options further reduces hedging and price‑discovery capacity right before month‑end. ^[15]

What to watch:

CME status page & social feeds: any indication of when Globex will reopen, and whether there will be a staggered pre‑open for specific contracts.
ETF volatility: algorithmic strategies may lean more heavily on SPY/QQQ to approximate futures exposure, which can exaggerate intraday moves.
Cross‑asset anomalies: with futures frozen, correlations between ETFs, single stocks, options, and OTC products could become unstable; intraday mispricings are very possible.

2. A powerful Thanksgiving week – but a bruised November

Wednesday’s session (markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving) capped a four‑day winning streak:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.7% on Wednesday, now up 2.6% for the week. ^[16]
S&P 500: +0.7% on Wednesday, up about 3.2% for the week. ^[17]
Nasdaq Composite: +0.8% Wednesday and roughly 4.2% higher on the week, helped by AI‑linked mega‑caps and software names. ^[18]

Under the surface, though, November has been rough:

Reuters notes the S&P 500 is still down around 0.4% for November, heading for its first monthly drop since April, even after rebounding from a deeper 5% loss earlier in the month. ^[19]
Global stocks saw unusually choppy trading as worries about an “AI bubble” and stretched tech valuations collided with the drag from a record 43‑day U.S. government shutdown, which delayed key economic data. ^[20]

Takeaway:
The market is entering today’s short session with strong weekly momentum but fragile monthly psychology. A lot of the recent buying has been driven by rate‑cut expectations and AI optimism; both narratives are vulnerable if data or headlines turn.

3. Fed rate‑cut bets and the “Hassett factor”

Monetary policy is the other big macro driver today:

Rate expectations: CME’s FedWatch tool now shows ~80–85% odds of a 25 bp cut in December, up from roughly 30–40% a week ago, following dovish comments from several Fed officials who are increasingly comfortable with easing given softer growth and patchy data. ^[21]
Treasury yields: The 10‑year U.S. yield is hovering near 4.0–4.1%, slightly higher overnight but dramatically below the highs of early autumn as traders lean into the rate‑cut story. ^[22]
Dollar: The dollar index is on track for its worst week in about four months, pressured by expectations of easier Fed policy. ^[23]

On top of that, political speculation has injected a new angle:

Reports suggest White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as a frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May. ^[24]
Investors view Hassett as relatively dovish, potentially favoring faster rate cuts, which could weigh on the dollarover time but is not yet seen as a threat to Fed independence. ^[25]

What this means for markets today:

Rate‑sensitive sectors – small caps, REITs, utilities, and highly levered companies – have started to outperform as rate‑cut odds rise. ^[26]
Any surprise commentary from Fed officials or leaks around the chair appointment could move yields, the dollar and growth‑stock valuations, even in a low‑volume session.

4. Global markets: Europe flat, Asia mixed, commodities firmer

Europe

The pan‑European STOXX 600 is roughly flat on the day but up about 0.5% in November, its weakest month since June but still near recent record highs. ^[27]
European equities are being supported by expectations of a U.S. rate cut, easing inflation in the eurozone, and cautious optimism around a Ukraine peace plan – even as the CME outage disrupts futures trading and month‑end positioning. ^[28]

Asia‑Pacific

Asian markets traded mixed overnight:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 and broader Topix eked out modest gains.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped as local risk sentiment remained fragile.
- Mainland Chinese indices (Shanghai and Shenzhen) advanced, continuing a recent rebound. ^[29]
Fresh data showed Tokyo core CPI up 2.8% YoY in November, a touch hotter than expected, keeping speculation alive that the Bank of Japan could lift rates as soon as next month. ^[30]

Commodities & FX

Oil: Brent is trading around the low‑$60s (roughly $63–64 per barrel), up modestly on the day but still set for a fourth straight monthly decline amid ongoing diplomacy around Ukraine and concerns about demand. ^[31]
Gold: Spot gold is near $4,150–4,200 an ounce, poised for a fourth consecutive monthly gain as rate‑cut expectations and a softer dollar support bullion. ^[32]
FX: The euro is around $1.15–1.16, the yen near ¥156 per dollar, and the dollar is broadly weaker on the week despite a small bounce this morning. ^[33]

Implication for U.S. traders:
Global markets are cautiously constructive, but the tone is fragile and heavily dependent on the Fed cut narrative. Today’s CME outage only amplifies the sense of end‑of‑month “fragility” in cross‑asset positioning.

5. Bitcoin above $90,000: signal for risk assets?

Crypto traders didn’t take Thanksgiving off:

Bitcoin jumped above $90,000 on Thursday while U.S. equity markets were closed and is still holding in that neighborhood this morning. ^[34]
Barron’s notes that the move is particularly notable because it happened without any help from a concurrent stock market rally, reinforcing the idea that crypto is currently trading on its own catalysts (ETFs, halving cycle, institutional flows). ^[35]
Even so, Bitcoin is still down about 16% in November and almost 30% below its early‑October record near $125,000, according to Reuters and crypto‑market summaries. ^[36]

In Reuters’ “Wall St Week Ahead,” several strategists explicitly described Bitcoin as a risk‑proxy for equities – when it’s strong, it tends to coincide with robust appetite for high‑beta stock trades. ^[37]

Today’s read‑through:

The crypto rebound into month‑end supports the idea that risk appetite hasn’t vanished, even after November’s drawdown in tech.
If the CME outage is resolved smoothly, the combination of crypto strength + expectations of a Fed cut could provide a tailwind for growth stocks and speculative small caps into the close.

6. Pre‑market stock movers to watch

Even with futures halted, individual stocks are trading normally in pre‑market, and there are some large movers at the micro‑ and small‑cap end of the market. ^[38]

From Benzinga’s pre‑market rundown and live screens:

Gainers

HeartBeam (BEAT) – up around 40–45% pre‑market, after the company laid out its regulatory strategy following an FDA “Not Substantially Equivalent” decision on its 12‑lead ECG synthesis software. HeartBeam is considering an appeal or a new 510(k) submission. ^[39]
SMX (Security Matters) plc (SMX) – up more than 70% pre‑market, extending Wednesday’s nearly 200% surge; ultra‑volatile and likely to attract day‑trading interest. ^[40]
TMC the metals company (TMC) – gaining around 15% after a strong prior session, as investors continue to rotate into metals and resources plays. ^[41]
Verrica Pharmaceuticals (VRCA) and Standard BioTools (LAB) – both trading solidly higher after recent financing and balance‑sheet news. ^[42]

Losers

Tilray Brands (TLRY) – down roughly 13–15% pre‑market after announcing a 1‑for‑10 reverse stock split, a move often taken as a sign of stress by equity investors. ^[43]
Solo Brands (SBDS) – off more than 14%, extending losses after weaker‑than‑expected Q3 results. ^[44]
Zynex (ZYXI) and FBS Global (FBGL) – both giving back a portion of huge recent gains following disappointing earnings and heavy speculative trading. ^[45]

Big‑cap angle:
The main mega‑caps (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon) aren’t seeing dramatic pre‑market dislocations based on early ETF indications, but AI names remain the market’s emotional center after another week of headlines about massive AI capex, chips supply, and cloud spending. ^[46]

7. Black Friday retail: more shoppers, fewer dollars

Today is also Black Friday, traditionally a key read‑through for U.S. consumer strength.

According to a detailed Reuters piece:

The National Retail Federation expects record foot traffic this Thanksgiving weekend, but average planned spending per person is projected to fall to about $890 from $902 last year, as inflation and a softer labor market weigh on budgets. ^[47]
Consumer confidence has slipped to a seven‑month low, and shoppers are becoming more selective, prioritizing essentials and small “affordable luxury” items over big‑ticket goods. ^[48]
Spending is increasingly concentrated among high‑income households, with the top 10% of earners accounting for nearly half of all consumer spending. ^[49]

Stock‑market angle:

Today’s trading is mostly about positioning ahead of detailed holiday‑sales data, but retailers like Walmart, Target, Costco, Amazon and major mall chains can still see intraday swings as anecdotal Black Friday reports hit social media and news wires.
The theme of “more shoppers, fewer dollars” is likely to sharpen investor focus on margins, discounting intensity and inventory management when Q4 results arrive.

8. Today’s U.S. economic calendar & market hours

It’s a data‑light Friday:

There are no major top‑tier U.S. economic releases (like payrolls, CPI, PCE or ISM) scheduled for today, according to multiple economic calendars. ^[50]
Routine items include Treasury bill auctions, a buyback announcement and the Fed balance‑sheet update later in the afternoon, but these are unlikely to move the tape in a short session. ^[51]

Market hours (U.S.):

NYSE & Nasdaq: open at 9:30 a.m. ET, close at 1:00 p.m. ET for the Black Friday early close. ^[52]
Bonds and derivatives: some fixed‑income markets also observe shortened hours; futures are effectively closed for now because of the CME outage and will only reopen once the exchange issues a new pre‑open schedule. ^[53]

Given the combination of early close + CME outage + month‑end, liquidity is likely to be very thin, especially in the final hour.

9. How traders are framing the session

Heading into the 28 November 2025 open, professional desks are broadly focused on five questions:

Does CME get Globex back online before or during the cash session?
- A quick resolution would frame the outage as a one‑day nuisance.
- A longer blackout raises the risk of failed hedges, widened spreads and more erratic ETF pricing.
Do Fed‑cut odds stay elevated?
- Any pushback from Fed officials, surprise data, or shifts in the Fed chair narrative (Hassett vs. other candidates) could jolt rates, banks and growth stocks. ^[54]
Is the “AI trade” stabilizing or re‑inflating?
- Reuters notes that the S&P 500 is up about 16% year‑to‑date, driven heavily by AI‑linked tech, but questions about profitability and massive capex have triggered bouts of volatility in names like Nvidia and Alphabet. ^[55]
- Today’s thin trading isn’t decisive, but flows may hint at whether investors are buying dips or quietly de‑risking into December.
Does Bitcoin’s surge spill into equities?
- Crypto strength often correlates with demand for high‑beta, speculative stocks. Watch small‑cap growth, unprofitable tech, and concept names for sympathy moves. ^[56]
What are the early whispers from Black Friday?
- Retail is unlikely to lead today’s tape, but anecdotal signs of strong or weak holiday traffic can move individual names and shape expectations for December.

Final word

Today’s U.S. session is an unusual mix of:

Structural disruption (CME outage),
Macro optimism (a likely December Fed cut),
Sentiment cross‑currents (AI valuation worries, crypto revival, cautious consumers), and
Seasonal quirks (Black Friday early close and thin liquidity).

For traders and investors, the key is less about today’s closing print and more about what this strange Black Friday reveals about risk appetite heading into December.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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