AMD Stock: AI Boom, OpenAI Deal and a Brutal November – What Investors Need to Know Now (November 29, 2025)

Ticker: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD)

Where AMD stock stands after a wild November

Advanced Micro Devices heads into the last month of 2025 in a very strange position: fundamentally stronger than ever, but coming off its worst month since the end of 2022.

AMD shares closed at $217.43 on Friday, November 28, 2025, in a shortened Black Friday trading session, up about 1.5% on the day and around $217.86 in after-hours trading. ^[1]

That bounce masks how rough November has been:

From early November highs above $259 to Friday’s close, AMD has dropped roughly 16%. ^[2]
A month-end wrap from TradingView pegs the November decline at about 17%, calling it AMD’s worst month since late 2022, even though the company just reported record quarterly revenue. ^[3]
Despite the sell-off, AMD is still up more than 70% year to date and trades roughly 180% above its 52‑week low near $76.50. ^[4]

On valuation, AMD is still priced for aggressive growth. Aggregated data from Tickernerd puts AMD at around 112× trailing earnings, 10.9× sales, with a market cap near $349 billion and year‑over‑year revenue growth of about 36%. ^[5]

In other words: the stock has cooled off, but it’s still nowhere near “cheap” in classical terms.

The OpenAI mega‑deal that rewrote the AMD story

The single biggest narrative driver for AMD in 2025 has been its blockbuster agreement with OpenAI.

On October 6, 2025, AMD and OpenAI announced a multi‑year, multi‑generation partnership under which OpenAI plans to deploy up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of AMD Instinct GPUs — starting with a 1 GW deployment of MI450 accelerators in the second half of 2026. ^[6]

Several reports across Reuters, AP, DatacenterDynamics and others outline key elements of the deal: ^[7]

OpenAI will build massive AI data centers powered by AMD’s next‑gen MI450 GPUs, with the total capacity equivalent to the output of multiple large power plants.
AMD has issued warrants giving OpenAI the option to buy up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01, potentially equating to roughly 10% of the company, vesting in tranches tied to delivery milestones and ambitious share‑price targets (reportedly up to $600).
Analysts estimate the deal could generate “tens of billions” of dollars in revenue for AMD over several years if fully executed, significantly accelerating its AI data‑center ambitions.

The announcement triggered a 20–30% single‑day surge in AMD’s share price and added around $80 billion to its market value, as investors briefly treated AMD as Nvidia’s only credible large‑scale GPU rival. ^[8]

But people being people (and markets being drama magnets), the same deal that supercharged the stock is now part of the reason it’s so volatile.

Record Q3 2025 results: fundamentals still look strong

In early November, AMD reported record Q3 2025 numbers: ^[9]

Revenue: about $9.25 billion, up 36% year over year
Non‑GAAP EPS: roughly $1.20, up sharply from a year ago
Data Center segment: around $4.3 billion in revenue, up over 20%
Strong growth as well in Client and Gaming chips, helped by Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs

Management guided for Q4 2025 revenue of roughly $9.3–$9.9 billion, implying mid‑20s percentage growth, and highlighted expanding gross margins as AI accelerators become a larger share of the mix. ^[10]

At AMD’s recent AI and investor events, CEO Lisa Su has repeatedly laid out an aggressively bullish roadmap:

AMD reported ~36% revenue growth last quarter and has talked about “at least 35%” annual growth over the next few years. ^[11]
Management sees a path to over $100 billion in cumulative data‑center revenue in the coming years as MI300 and MI450 families ramp. ^[12]

So the core fundamentals — revenue, margins, AI pipeline — have actually improved in 2025. The problem is that the stock got ahead of itself, and then the narrative turned.

Why AMD stock just had its worst month since 2022

If fundamentals look so good, why did AMD shares skid nearly 17% this month? A few key issues have converged:

1. Meta–Google chip news rattled AI GPU hopes

Several outlets, including Motley Fool summaries and stock‑forecast aggregators, highlighted a Bloomberg report that Meta Platforms plans to buy custom TPUs from Google, rather than relying heavily on AMD GPUs. ^[13]

That headline hit particularly hard because the OpenAI deal had led investors to assume AMD would start landing multiple hyperscale GPU wins (OpenAI, Meta, others) as Nvidia’s main alternative. If one of those hypothetical wins disappears, growth expectations get marked down in a hurry.

Commentary pieces such as “Why AMD Stock Just Crashed” and “Why AMD Stock Is Crashing: the OpenAI Monopoly Trap That Wall Street Ignored” framed the situation like this: ^[14]

The OpenAI warrant and the sheer scale of that one customer introduce customer‑concentration risk.
If other cloud giants double down on their own custom silicon or on Google/AWS chips, AMD could be extremely dependent on OpenAI for high‑margin AI revenue.
Markets started worrying about whether this is a sustainable long‑term footprint or a one‑off mega‑deal that leaves AMD exposed.

2. “Worst month in three years” headlines feed momentum selling

MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance and TradingView all ran stories noting that AMD’s November decline is its steepest monthly drop since late 2022, even as revenue hits record highs. ^[15]

TradingView’s “Key Facts” summary distilled it bluntly: AMD reported $9.25 billion in quarterly revenue, but the stock still fell about 17% in November, making it the weakest month in roughly three years. ^[16]

When headlines say “worst since 2022,” that tends to attract short‑term traders and quant funds on the short side, amplifying volatility.

3. Valuation fears — “champagne price for a beer‑budget growth rate”?

A recent Forbes piece — cheerfully titled something like “The Only Real Reason To Buy AMD Stock” — noted that AMD trades at about 55× 2025 consensus earnings, with expected revenue growth in the low‑30% range. ^[17]

Put differently: a lot of growth is already priced in.

Even after the pullback, Tickernerd’s dashboard shows: ^[18]

P/E ~112× (trailing)
Price‑to‑sales ~11×
Gross margin above 50%, but net margin still just over 10%
YTD gain over 70%

That multiple can be fine if AI demand continues to explode and AMD takes meaningful share from Nvidia, but investors are now more sensitive to any hint that the AI infrastructure boom might be fragmenting across multiple chip suppliers.

4. Technical breakdown and AI sector rotation

Several technical analysts have taken a more bearish tack. Recent Seeking Alpha articles include: ^[19]

“AMD: Time To Sell Before The Momentum Dies”
“AMD: Downgrading Back To Sell, Horrible Crack In Momentum (Technical Analysis)”
Earlier in the month, a more optimistic “AMD’s AI Runway Is Long and Promising” piece that already warned AI revenue takeoff might be a year out.

On the shorter‑term trading side, FXEmpire notes that AMD now sits just below its 50‑day EMA, with potential resistance around $230 and support near the 200‑day EMA in the high‑$180s. The author expects a possible return to the $260 area over time but warns of “sideways noise” in the near term. ^[20]

Layer on top the broader November story — a choppy month for high‑multiple AI names as bond yields bounced and investors rotated between mega‑cap tech winners and laggards — and AMD’s slide starts to look less mysterious. ^[21]

Wall Street’s view: bullish on AI, cautious on volatility

Despite the recent smack‑down, most Wall Street analysts are still positive on AMD, but there’s far less euphoria than in early October.

Data compiled by Tickernerd from 53 analysts shows: ^[22]

40 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell ratings
Median price target:$290
Target range:$178–$380
At ~$214–$218, that implies roughly 35% upside to the median target, and over 75% to the high target.

Recent updates include: ^[23]

Mizuho: Outperform, target $285
Bank of America: Buy, target $300
Wells Fargo: Overweight, target $345
Morgan Stanley: Equal‑Weight, target $260 (more cautious despite the OpenAI deal)

A widely cited Seeking Alpha piece titled “AMD: Multiple Tailwinds But Higher Uncertainty (Rating Upgrade)” describes AMD as a GARP stock — growth at a reasonable price — but only if its aggressive AI roadmap plays out and macro conditions cooperate. The author models around 31% annual revenue growth through 2029, up from 26% previously, while explicitly flagging increased uncertainty around AI competition and customer concentration. ^[24]

Meanwhile, TipRanks highlights that AMD has rallied more than 75% YTD but notes increasingly mixed opinions on whether the recent pullback is a chance to buy or a warning of fading momentum. ^[25]

Insider activity: Lisa Su’s 40,000‑share gift

Fresh SEC filings also generated some chatter. On November 28, 2025, AMD filed a Form 4 showing that CEO and chair Lisa T. Sugifted 40,000 shares on November 25 at a reported price of $0.00 — a classic sign of a transfer for charitable or estate‑planning purposes, not a market sale. ^[26]

After the transaction, Su still holds roughly 4.23 million AMD shares (direct and indirect), underscoring that her personal financial exposure to AMD’s long‑term outcome remains very large. ^[27]

For most institutional investors, that’s a non‑event; but retail traders often watch insider filings closely, and “insiders gifting or selling into strength” has become a recurring theme across AI‑linked tech names in 2025.

The bull case: can AMD really be a $1 trillion company?

Several recent pieces on The Motley Fool toy with a provocative question: could AMD be a $1 trillion company by 2028? ^[28]

The optimistic thesis looks roughly like this:

Explosive AI data‑center TAM
AMD is targeting the same trillion‑dollar‑plus AI infrastructure market Nvidia has described, with management projecting 60%+ compound growth in its data‑center business over the next few years and 35%+ for the company as a whole. ^[29]
Competitive accelerators at scale
Independent benchmarks and analyst commentary suggest that MI300‑series and upcoming MI350/MI450 chips are competitive on performance and cost against Nvidia’s current generation for many workloads, especially where customers value open software (ROCm) and supply diversification. ^[30]
OpenAI deal as proof of relevance
The 6 GW OpenAI partnership is a strong signal that a top‑tier AI player is willing to bet its next‑gen infrastructure on AMD, not just Nvidia and custom silicon. If AMD can replicate that with other hyperscalers (Microsoft Azure, Oracle, smaller clouds, sovereign AI projects), data‑center revenue could grow far beyond traditional CPU sales. ^[31]
Optionality in client, gaming and custom silicon
Outside data centers, AMD continues to push Ryzen AI laptops, console chips and potential next‑gen console GPUs (Sony and AMD have already teased work on hardware beyond the PS5). These may not move the needle as dramatically as GPUs, but they add to the growth mix. ^[32]

If you assume that:

AMD executes the OpenAI deal cleanly,
wins a few more hyperscale deployments, and
maintains strong margins while compound‑growing revenue north of 30% for several years,

then it’s not hard for bullish models to spit out market‑cap estimates drifting toward $800 billion–$1 trillion by the late 2020s. ^[33]

Those are scenarios, not guarantees.

The bear case: OpenAI concentration, custom chips and valuation risk

The more cautious (and outright bearish) research notes focus on three big issues.

1. Customer concentration and counter‑party risk

A number of commentators, especially the Invezz “monopoly trap” piece and follow‑up opinion columns, emphasize that tying so much of AMD’s future to OpenAI is risky: ^[34]

OpenAI itself is spending heavily on compute, faces legal and regulatory scrutiny, and depends on continued financing from Microsoft and others.
The 10% equity warrant further entangles AMD’s fate with OpenAI’s and could meaningfully dilute existing shareholders if fully exercised.
If OpenAI delays deployments or renegotiates volumes, the “tens of billions” revenue narrative could get scaled back.

2. Intensifying AI chip competition

At the same time, the broader AI infrastructure landscape is fragmenting:

Nvidia continues to roll out new architectures and software lock‑in.
Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all pushing custom AI silicon (TPUs, Trainium, Athena, etc.) and may prioritize their own chips over AMD for strategic reasons. ^[35]
Other players like Broadcom are building bespoke accelerators for hyperscalers. ^[36]

If AI becomes less of a “standard GPU” market and more of an ASIC + custom chip market, AMD’s addressable share could be smaller than current bullish models imply.

3. High expectations embedded in the price

Finally, valuation. Even after a 17% monthly drop, AMD: ^[37]

trades at high double‑digit forward earnings multiples,
carries a double‑digit sales multiple, and
is heavily owned by growth‑oriented funds that can be quick to sell if momentum breaks.

Some recent notes — including the two late‑November Seeking Alpha pieces arguing it’s “time to sell” and flagging a “horrible crack in momentum” — stress that a lot has to go right for investors buying at these levels to be rewarded over the next few years. ^[38]

Key catalysts to watch after November’s reset

For investors following AMD stock as of November 29, 2025, the next 6–12 months will likely hinge on a few major catalysts:

Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026)
Does AMD hit or beat its $9.3–$9.9 billion revenue guidance? How quickly is AI accelerator revenue scaling, and what does management say about 2026 growth? ^[39]
More color on OpenAI timelines and cash flows
Investors will want clearer disclosure on when the 6 GW of GPUs convert into revenue, how the warrant accounting works, and whether there are similar deals in the pipeline with other hyperscalers. ^[40]
Hyperscaler diversification moves
Any new headlines about Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, or others choosing custom TPUs/ASICs over AMD GPUs — or, conversely, adopting AMD Instinct for large clusters — could move the stock sharply in either direction. ^[41]
Macro backdrop and AI sentiment
AMD’s high‑multiple status makes it sensitive to interest‑rate expectations, rotations within tech, and general AI euphoria vs. skepticism. A renewed “AI isn’t a bubble” narrative from high‑profile analysts—like Wedbush’s Dan Ives repeatedly naming AMD among his top AI picks—helps support the bull case, but that can change quickly if macro data sours. ^[42]

Bottom line: powerful AI story, fragile stock

As of November 29, 2025, AMD stock sits at an awkward intersection:

Fundamentals: record revenue, surging AI data‑center demand, a historic OpenAI partnership, and a rich product roadmap in GPUs, CPUs, and accelerators. ^[43]
Sentiment: bruised by Meta–Google chip headlines, concern about OpenAI concentration, and worry that the AI trade has become crowded and richly valued. ^[44]
Valuation: still demanding, with much of the AI dream already priced into the shares. ^[45]

For long‑term investors who believe in the AI infrastructure super‑cycle and AMD’s ability to execute alongside Nvidia, Google, AWS and others, November’s drawdown can be interpreted as a reset in expectations, not a collapse in the thesis.

For more cautious investors, the combination of lofty multiples, single‑customer risk and fierce competition justifies a healthy dose of skepticism — and perhaps a preference for diversified semiconductor or AI ETFs over a single, highly volatile name.

Either way, AMD is likely to remain one of the most closely watched stocks in global markets as the AI arms race continues into 2026 and beyond.

Is this an AI bubble? Going to pop soon?