Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is catching its breath after one of the wildest runs any pharmaceutical stock has ever seen. On November 29, 2025, the share price is easing off record highs, but the company is still hovering near the rarefied air of a trillion‑dollar valuation and sitting on massive gains for the year. [1]
This piece walks through what’s happening with Eli Lilly’s stock today, why it ran so hard in November, how new U.S. drug‑pricing deals and obesity drugs feed into the story, and what risks are starting to flash on the dashboard.
Eli Lilly Stock Today: November 29, 2025 Snapshot
As of trading on November 29, 2025, Smartkarma data shows: [2]
- Share price: about $1,075.47
- Daily move:–2.61% (down $28.87 on the session)
- Volume: roughly 2.73 million shares (healthy but not frenetic)
- Year‑to‑date performance: about +43%
Even after the pullback, that’s not exactly “fallen angel” territory; it’s more like “angel paused to catch its breath.”
Lightyear’s data puts Eli Lilly’s market cap around $989 billion and its price‑to‑earnings ratio (P/E) in the mid‑50s as of November 29. Macrotrends has a very similar read, with a trailing P/E just above 50x. [3]
Put differently: Lilly is still priced more like a high‑growth tech platform than a traditional drug company.
The Two‑Day Cool‑Down: From Black Friday to Today
The weakness you’re seeing in LLY now is basically a continuation of Friday’s post‑holiday wobble.
On November 28, during the shortened Black Friday session:
- The S&P 500 and Dow both finished higher in a low‑volume, post‑Thanksgiving bounce.
- Healthcare was the only S&P sector in the red, weighed down by Eli Lilly, which fell about 2.6% on the day. [4]
- Investopedia noted that LLY’s drop was just giving back part of the surge that recently pushed the company above a $1 trillion market cap, with shares still up about 39% for 2025 at that point. [5]
MarketBeat’s recap estimates Friday’s move at –2.7%, with the stock trading as low as about $1,067.69 and closing near $1,074.94, on volume roughly one‑third below average. [6]
Smartkarma’s Saturday update basically picks up where Friday left off:
- Price near $1,075
- Day’s move –2.61%
- YTD gain still north of 40%
- November performance: around +30% for the month. [7]
So what looks like “pain” on a one‑day chart is really just profit‑taking after a ballistic November rally.
How November Turned Eli Lilly Into a Trillion‑Dollar Stock
The obvious question: What lit the fuse?
A cluster of catalysts landed in late October and November:
- Monster Q3 2025 earnings
- Q3 revenue: about $17.6 billion, up more than 50% year‑over‑year. [8]
- EPS around $7.02, beating consensus estimates that ranged in the mid‑$5 to mid‑$6 area depending on provider. [9]
- Crucially, revenue growth was volume‑driven, not price‑driven. MarketBeat’s analysis notes that volume rose roughly 62%, while average realized prices actually fell around 10%. [10]
- Obesity and diabetes drugs crossing $10 billion in quarterly sales
- GLP‑1‑based blockbusters Mounjaro (for diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity) together generated more than $10 billion in quarterly revenue, making them the core of Lilly’s growth engine. [11]
- Reuters reported that this obesity/diabetes portfolio contributed over half of the company’s total revenue. [12]
- The $1 trillion market‑cap milestone
- On November 21, Lilly briefly hit about $1,051 per share, pushing its market value to $1 trillion and making it the first pharmaceutical company ever to join the trillion‑dollar club. [13]
- OncoDaily and other industry outlets highlighted that this puts a 149‑year‑old drugmaker in the same valuation league as the tech megacaps. [14]
- A 30%+ November surge
In short: ballistic earnings + GLP‑1 mania + a big psychological round number = one euphoric month for the stock.
The GLP‑1 Obesity Franchise: Where the Growth Actually Comes From
Strip away the ticker tape and Lilly’s story right now boils down to metabolic disease and the GLP‑1 drug class.
According to Reuters’ company profile, Lilly’s cardiometabolic portfolio includes: [17]
- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) – diabetes
- Zepbound – obesity
- Trulicity, Jardiance and a suite of older insulin brands
On top of that, the company has:
- Immunology drugs like Taltz, Omvoh, Ebglyss, Olumiant
- Oncology treatments such as Verzenio, Cyramza and others
- Neuroscience products, including Emgality for migraines and Kisunla for Alzheimer’s disease
- A radiopharmaceutical pipeline via its POINT Biopharma acquisition and an oral integrin inhibitor in development for inflammatory bowel disease. [18]
But the stardom today is firmly with GLP‑1:
- Q3 2025: Mounjaro ~$6.5 billion in revenue and Zepbound ~$3.6 billion, per MarketBeat’s breakdown of Lilly’s results. [19]
- That means two drugs alone are generating over $10 billion per quarter and still growing fast.
The market for these drugs isn’t just “big”; it’s being treated like a new healthcare infrastructure layer, akin to cloud computing in tech. Analysts and industry watchers see multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar potential for GLP‑1 therapies across obesity, diabetes and possibly other conditions. [20]
To keep up, Lilly has gone on an industrial building spree:
- MarketBeat/ Nasdaq reporting notes more than $50 billion committed to manufacturing expansion since 2020, including big new facilities in Indiana, Virginia, Texas and expanded operations in Puerto Rico. [21]
That scale becomes a moat: even if rivals develop similar molecules, matching Lilly’s production capacity is a multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar challenge.
From Pens to Pills: Orforglipron and the Next Phase
The next big GLP‑1 catalyst isn’t another injectable — it’s a pill.
MarketBeat’s “Trillion‑Dollar Pill” analysis points to orforglipron, Lilly’s once‑daily oral GLP‑1 candidate, as a key upcoming driver: [22]
- Phase 3 data suggest strong efficacy versus oral semaglutide.
- Orforglipron could avoid cold‑chain logistics and simplify manufacturing compared with injectable pens.
- Lilly has already booked nearly $1 billion in pre‑launch inventory tied partly to orforglipron, a sign it is planning for a large‑scale rollout. [23]
TipRanks notes that many analysts expect regulatory approval for Lilly’s new weight‑loss pill in 2026, with forecasts that it will become a global bestseller shortly after launch. [24]
This is why the market is willing to pay tech‑style multiples: investors aren’t just valuing current GLP‑1 injections; they’re pricing in a decade‑long franchise across injectables, pills and new indications.
A Huge U.S. Drug‑Pricing Deal That Changes the Economics
November didn’t just bring good earnings. It also brought a major U.S. policy shift that directly involves Eli Lilly.
On November 6, the Trump administration announced “most‑favored‑nation” (MFN) pricing agreements with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, aimed squarely at GLP‑1 drugs. [25]
Key elements, as described in the White House fact sheet and Lilly’s own materials: [26]
- Prices for blockbuster GLP‑1 drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound and pipeline oral versions) sold through the TrumpRx program will be slashed versus current U.S. list prices, often by more than half.
- Medicare and Medicaid get access to these lower prices, and for the first time Medicare is set to cover Wegovy and Zepbound for obesity under specific criteria.
- Medicare beneficiaries with obesity or qualifying comorbidities are expected to pay around $50 per month out of pocket for Zepbound or, once approved, oral orforglipron.
- Lilly and Novo commit to offering MFN prices on future drugs and to expanding U.S. manufacturing, with Lilly tied to at least $27 billion in new domestic investments under the deal. [27]
Investor translation:
- Lower price per prescription → potential margin pressure per unit
- Many more patients covered by government programs → potential explosion in volume
That dovetails neatly with Lilly’s existing strategy: as the Nasdaq/MarketBeat analysis stressed, Q3 revenue growth was driven by higher volume despite lower realized prices, which already looked like a deliberate land‑grab. [28]
The MFN deal effectively puts policy wind at the back of that volume‑over‑price strategy — but it also increases exposure to U.S. political risk. A future administration could try to reopen or rewrite the terms, and there will almost certainly be litigation and lobbying around how MFN pricing is implemented in practice.
Valuation: How Expensive Is LLY Stock After the Run?
Here’s where things get spicy.
Different data providers give slightly different multiples, but they agree on one point: Lilly is expensive.
- Nasdaq/MarketBeat pegs Lilly at a trailing P/E near 70x and a forward P/E around 45x based on consensus earnings estimates when it first crossed $1 trillion. [29]
- As of November 29, data from Lightyear and Macrotrends puts the trailing multiple closer to 50–55x, reflecting the small pullback but still massively above typical big‑pharma valuations. [30]
Forecasts are similarly aggressive:
- Simply Wall St’s narrative, echoed in a widely cited Yahoo Finance piece, models 2028 revenue of about $89.1 billion and earnings of roughly $34.2 billion, implying high‑teens annual revenue growth from today’s base. [31]
- Their fair‑value estimate lands around $1,003 per share, which suggests modest downside from current levels, not screaming cheap. [32]
On the Street side:
- MarketBeat’s summary of analyst coverage shows a “Moderate/Strong Buy”‑type consensus, with most analysts rating the stock as a buy and a handful at hold. [33]
- Recent target hikes include UBS ($1,080), Cantor Fitzgerald ($985), Scotiabank ($1,165) and a JPMorgan target at $1,150 cited by Smartkarma. [34]
- The average price target in some datasets actually sits a bit below the current price, in the $1,030–$1,050 range, reflecting that the stock has run ahead of earlier estimates. [35]
Quant and factor models agree on the “great business, rich price” story:
- Smartkarma’s Smart Score gives Lilly high marks for Momentum and Growth, but low for Value, with an overall composite score in the mid‑3s on a 5‑point scale. [36]
For investors, that boils down to:
You’re paying a premium multiple that assumes Lilly can stay on top of the obesity/diabetes market, execute complex policy deals, scale manufacturing, and successfully launch an oral GLP‑1 pill — with relatively few stumbles.
Technical and Sentiment Signals: Overbought, or Just Powerful Momentum?
Technical analysts who’ve been staring at LLY’s chart all month are starting to sound a bit nervous.
FinanceFeeds’ November 28 piece points out that: [37]
- The stock was trapped in a descending channel for over a year, then exploded higher after the Q3 earnings beat.
- Price has now pushed to the upper extension of that expanded channel, often seen as a “natural” resistance zone.
- After breaking the psychological $1,000 level, momentum accelerated, which can sometimes signal a blow‑off phase rather than a new stable range.
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has reached extreme overbought territory and started to roll over.
Add in:
- Two straight days of 2–3% declines following a huge run,
- A post‑holiday, low‑liquidity environment, and
- Constant chatter about whether the stock will split (covered by outlets like the Motley Fool), [38]
…and you get a picture of a stock where sentiment has been euphoric, and even small negative catalysts can trigger sharp pullbacks.
Beyond Obesity: Pipeline and Trials Investors Are Watching
The entire investment case is not just “skinny shots forever.” Lilly has a reasonably broad and deep pipeline: [39]
- Neuroscience:
- Kisunla (donanemab) for Alzheimer’s disease is an approved therapy in some markets and a potential long‑term growth pillar, though the Alzheimer’s field remains risky and politically charged.
- Immunology & IBD:
- An oral a4β7 integrin inhibitor is in development for inflammatory bowel disease, an area where biologics have historically done well commercially.
- Radiopharmaceuticals:
- The acquisition of POINT Biopharma gives Lilly a pipeline of radioligand therapies targeting cancer.
- Type 1 diabetes:
- New clinical trials of baricitinib are launching to see whether the drug can delay onset or progression of type 1 diabetes, based on earlier Australian research. [40]
None of these are as commercially gigantic as GLP‑1 obesity — at least not yet — but they matter for diversification and long‑term durability.
Dividend, Guidance and How “Defensive” This Really Is
Even at nosebleed valuations, Lilly retains a few classic big‑pharma traits:
- The board recently declared a fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend of $1.50 per share, continuing its pattern of annual dividend growth. [41]
- MarketBeat notes full‑year 2025 EPS guidance in the $23.00–$23.70 range, broadly aligned with Street forecasts and implying strong double‑digit earnings growth. [42]
That said, the dividend yield is well under 1% at current prices, so this is not a classic income stock; it’s broadly a growth compounder wrapped in a pharma ticker.
The defensive reputation of healthcare stocks doesn’t fully apply here either. With GLP‑1s dominating the story, Lilly is highly exposed to: [43]
- Policy risk (MFN pricing, Medicare coverage details, future reforms)
- Competitive risk (Novo Nordisk’s next‑gen drugs, plus other entrants)
- Execution risk (manufacturing scale‑up, pill launch, side‑effect profile, long‑term safety questions)
It’s more comparable to a high‑growth platform company riding a huge secular trend than a sleepy dividend payer.
What Today’s Pullback Really Means
Putting it all together:
- Near‑term price action:
- The 2–3% drop into November 29 looks like normal profit‑taking after a 30%+ monthly surge and a historic milestone. [44]
- Technical indicators and post‑holiday liquidity amplify the move, but there’s no single catastrophic headline driving it.
- Fundamentals:
- Q3 numbers and GLP‑1 demand remain extremely strong, and the U.S. drug‑pricing deal, oddly enough, may increase long‑term volume even as it puts a lid on price per dose. [45]
- Valuation & risk:
- The investment case now depends heavily on continued near‑flawless execution: maintaining GLP‑1 leadership, rolling out an oral pill, managing political scrutiny and expanding manufacturing on time and on budget.
- At 50–70x earnings depending on how you count, there isn’t a huge margin for big mistakes. [46]
- Sentiment:
- Analysts and factor models still lean positive — “buy” ratings, bullish long‑term forecasts, strong momentum scores — but more and more commentary is starting to sound like “incredible company, very full price.” [47]
None of this is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold LLY; it’s a snapshot of where the story stands today. The stock has effectively become a referendum on two big ideas:
- Can GLP‑1 drugs reshape global metabolic health at the scale the market is currently assuming?
- Can Eli Lilly stay at the center of that transformation long enough to grow into its valuation?
References
1. www.smartkarma.com, 2. www.smartkarma.com, 3. lightyear.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.smartkarma.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. oncodaily.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. financefeeds.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.whitehouse.gov, 26. www.whitehouse.gov, 27. www.whitehouse.gov, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. lightyear.com, 31. simplywall.st, 32. simplywall.st, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.smartkarma.com, 37. financefeeds.com, 38. www.fool.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. breakthrought1d.org.au, 41. lilly.gcs-web.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.smartkarma.com, 45. www.nasdaq.com, 46. www.nasdaq.com, 47. www.marketbeat.com
