
Eli Lilly and Company dropped 0.9% on Friday following the news that Mounjaro received a significant cardiovascular indication. The drop wiped out approximately $9.8 billion in implied equity value.
Eli Lilly · NYSE: LLY · Market data at August 28, 2026, 09:44:26 EDT
| New indication | CV risk reduction in high-risk adults with type 2 diabetes |
| Comparator | Trulicity |
| MACE-3 hazard ratio | 0.92 (95.3% CI: 0.83–1.01) |
| Relative event rate | 8% lower |
| All-cause mortality | 16% lower |
| Statistical result | Noninferior; not superior |
| Product | Q2 2026 sales | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Mounjaro worldwide | $9.9B | +91% |
| Mounjaro U.S. | $4.8B | +45% |
| Mounjaro ex-U.S. | $5.2B | +172% |
| Zepbound U.S. | $4.9B | +44% |
| Lilly total | $22.97B | Quarter ended June |
Mounjaro as a share of Lilly revenue
43.3%
Mounjaro plus Zepbound as a share of Lilly revenue
64.4%
The label expansion is material because tirzepatide already supplies nearly two-thirds of quarterly revenue.
| Friday open | $1,172.66 |
| Early range | $1,164.32–$1,174.00 |
| 52-week range | $712.05–$1,292.65 |
| P/E ratio | 39.22× |
| Average volume | 2.65M shares |
| Analyst ratings | 18 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell |
Lower realized prices already offset part of U.S. volume growth. Rebate pressure, supply tightness and Novo Nordisk competition can limit incremental revenue. The medicine carries warnings including thyroid C-cell tumors and pancreatitis.
Sources: Lilly, Reuters, PubMed, Lilly Pricing Information and Google Finance. Market data are timestamped above.
Annualised at £110 monthly. Scenario only; before discounts, dropouts, taxes and channel costs.
Britain validates the oral platform, but private-pay sales start small against a $86bn guidance midpoint. NICE access is the real volume gate.
Slow reimbursement, Novo competition, discontinuations, safety concerns or lower realised prices could expose a premium valuation.
Obesity growth meets a narrow valuation cushion
A post-earnings rerating met fresh bullish targets. Investors priced in 48% quarterly sales growth, $85B-$87B guidance and a deeper obesity pipeline. Thursday's reversal showed how quickly profit-taking appears near records.
Lilly is proving it can trade price for reach. Volume growth has more than offset lower realized prices. The burden now shifts to durability: prescriptions must keep rising, manufacturing must arrive on time, and Foundayo must close a large oral-market gap with Novo. At $1,225.73, the stock already discounts much of the near-term earnings beat.