Netflix Stock on November 29, 2025: Post‑Split Price, Warner Bros. Bid Jitters and Fresh Analyst Upside Calls

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is ending November in a curious spot: the business is humming, the share price is well below its recent peak, and Wall Street can’t quite agree whether the stock is still too expensive or offering 40%‑plus upside.

As of November 29, 2025, Netflix stock is trading around $107.6 per share, with an intraday range near $106.24–$107.94 and a 52‑week range of $82.11–$134.12. ^[1] The stock is roughly 20% below its 52‑week high but still up around 20–21% over the past year. ^[2]

Below is a breakdown of the key developments shaping the Netflix stock story as of November 29, 2025, based on the latest news and analyst commentary.

Where Netflix Stock Stands Today

On Friday’s session (November 28), Netflix shares climbed about 1.3% to roughly $107.47, with trading volume sharply below average. ^[3] That leaves the stock:

About 22% above its 52‑week low of $82.11. ^[4]
Around 20% below its recent high near $134.12. ^[5]
Down roughly 14% over the past month, despite being up about 20% over the last year. ^[6]

On the valuation side, multiple data providers show Netflix trading at a trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio in the mid‑40s. TradingView, for example, lists a P/E of about 44.3x, a market cap around $450 billion, trailing twelve‑month revenue near $38.9 billion, and net income of roughly $8.7 billion. ^[7]

An aggregate forecast page at MarketBeat pegs the consensus analyst rating at “Moderate Buy”, with an average price target around $133.90, implying roughly 25% upside from current levels. ^[8]

So the headline picture as of November 29 is:

A premium‑valued, highly profitable streaming leader, trading well off its highs but still not exactly “cheap.”

Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Growth, Brazil Tax Hit and Post‑Earnings Volatility

The current Netflix narrative is still anchored in its third‑quarter 2025 results, reported on October 21.

Multiple outlets, including Variety and TheWrap, report that revenue grew about 17–17.2% year‑over‑year to roughly $11.5 billion, powered by subscriber growth, pricing and the expanding ad‑supported tier. ^[9]

On the profit side, Netflix delivered earnings per share (EPS) of $5.87. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected roughly $6.92 per share, so EPS came in below consensus, while revenue was essentially in line. ^[10]

The main culprit was a one‑time tax charge in Brazil:

The company recorded a large expense—reported around $619 million by several outlets—tied to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities. ^[11]
As a result, operating margin landed near 28%, below Netflix’s own guidance of about 31.5%. ^[12]

Despite the margin disappointment, Netflix reaffirmed strong full‑year guidance, projecting 2025 revenue of about $45.1 billion, near the top of its prior $44.8–$45.2 billion range, and calling for roughly 17% revenue growth in Q4. ^[13]

The market reaction was whiplash‑like:

Immediately after earnings, the stock fell 7–12%, depending on the trading window cited, as traders focused on the tax charge and margin miss. ^[14]
Over the following weeks, technical analysts noted that Netflix had broken below key moving averages and was forming a descending triangle pattern, a classic bearish formation that can signal further downside if support levels fail. ^[15]

That post‑earnings slump is a big reason Netflix now sits well below its highs, even though revenue and profit trends remain strong.

The 10‑for‑1 Stock Split: Cheaper Ticket, Same Movie

Another major pillar of the current story is Netflix’s 10‑for‑1 stock split.

On October 30, 2025, Netflix’s board approved a ten‑for‑one forward split of the company’s common stock. Shareholders of record as of November 10 received nine additional shares for every one share after the close on November 14, and the stock began trading on a split‑adjusted basis on Monday, November 17. ^[16]

A widely cited 24/7 Wall St. analysis notes that this was Netflix’s first split in over a decade, triggered after the pre‑split share price climbed above $1,100. ^[17]

In simple terms:

Pre‑split: a single share traded north of $1,100.
Post‑split: that becomes 10 shares around $110 each, leaving the company’s overall value unchanged, but making the stock more accessible to employees and smaller investors. ^[18]

Since the split went into effect, Netflix shares have drifted lower from early post‑split levels around the low‑$110s to today’s mid‑$100s, mirroring the earnings‑driven correction.

Valuation: Overvalued, Fairly Valued, or 40% Upside? Depends Who You Ask

Consensus Snapshot

A MarketBeat report released on November 28 notes that Netflix:

Trades at roughly 44x trailing earnings with net margin around 24% and return on equity above 40%.
Has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and an average price target of $133.90. ^[19]

That average target implies ~24–25% upside from the current ~$107–108 level.

Simply Wall St: Overvalued on DCF and P/E

A new November 28 Simply Wall St analysis takes a more cautious view. It highlights:

A discounted cash flow (DCF) fair value of $86.54, implying the stock is about 23% overvalued versus recent prices. ^[20]
A current P/E of about 43.1x, well above the entertainment industry average of 20.8x and above their own “fair” multiple of 36.1x based on growth and risk factors. ^[21]

On their internal six‑point valuation scorecard, Netflix scores just 2/6, leading Simply Wall St to label the shares “overvalued” on both DCF and earnings‑based metrics. ^[22]

TechStock²: Rich, But Maybe Justified

A fresh TechStock² “Netflix Stock Today” update, timestamped November 29, stitches together several data sources:

Price: about $107.5.
Trailing P/E: around 44–45x.
Forward P/E (2026 estimates): about 35x.
PEG ratio (price/earnings‑to‑growth): roughly 1.3–1.4, suggesting the multiple is broadly in line with expected EPS growth.
Price‑to‑sales: close to 10x trailing sales, based on around $43.4 billion in trailing revenue. TS2 Tech

The piece also references wildly different fair‑value estimates:

$86.54 from Simply Wall St’s DCF (downside from here). ^[23]
Around $55–56 on a conservative value‑investing model (ValueInvesting.io). TS2 Tech
Roughly $141 in a bullish TIKR scenario analysis (upside of about 30%). TS2 Tech

Taken together, the message is clear: the market agrees Netflix is a high‑quality business, but disagrees sharply on how much you should pay for it.

Financial Modeling Prep / Cbonds: 41.41% Upside

Adding to the dispersion, Financial Modeling Prep, via bond‑data platform Cbonds, published a fresh note on November 29 titled:

“Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) Stock Analysis: A Potential 41.41% Increase in Value.” ^[24]

The full model requires registration, but the headline figure tells you their internal fair value sits roughly 40% above current prices.

Analyst Activity on November 29: Rosenblatt Trims, Still Bullish

The most concrete Wall Street move today comes from Rosenblatt Securities:

Rosenblatt lowered its Netflix price target to $152 from $153 but reiterated a Buy rating, according to an Investing.com summary and a parallel Cbonds note dated November 29. ^[25]

Key points from the Rosenblatt commentary:

The cut is a minor housekeeping adjustment tied to the 10‑for‑1 split and updated assumptions on share count, FX and debt. ^[26]
Rosenblatt believes Netflix can trade at about 45x earnings in a year, based on 2026 EPS estimates and a projected 28% compound annual EPS growth rate. ^[27]
The stock currently trades on their numbers at roughly 44x trailing earnings with a PEG ratio near 1.2 and debt‑to‑equity of 0.66, which they frame as manageable. ^[28]

Crucially, Rosenblatt says its base‑case thesis does not assume Netflix successfully acquires Warner Bros. Discovery; that potential deal is treated more as risk and optionality than a core driver. ^[29]

Other recent moves include:

JPMorgan maintaining a Neutral rating and trimming its target to $124 from $127.50 earlier in November, citing high expectations and recent volatility. ^[30]
A Motley Fool piece highlighting Netflix as one of two “stock‑split growth stocks” that Wall Street believes could climb 51–64%, based on consensus price targets. ^[31]

So while targets vary, the analyst community overall still leans constructively bullish on Netflix, with the occasional warning flag about valuation.

Strategy Update: Ads, Live Sports and a South India Pivot

Ad Business: 190 Million Viewers and a New Metric

Netflix’s advertising business has become one of the most important parts of the equity story.

In early November, Reuters reported that Netflix ads now reach over 190 million monthly active viewers (MAVs) globally, across its ad‑supported plans. ^[32]

Two notable shifts:

Netflix introduced a new viewer‑based metric, counting individual viewers rather than just accounts, to give advertisers a clearer sense of reach. ^[33]
Management said Q3 2025 marked its best ad‑sales quarter to date, and the company is on track to more than double ad revenue in 2025. ^[34]

Netflix is also piloting dynamic ad insertion (DAI) for live events, starting with properties like WWE and an upcoming NFL Christmas Gameday, with rollouts planned across the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Germany, Mexico and the UK. ^[35]

For shareholders, the takeaway is that advertising is no longer a side quest; it’s increasingly central to the company’s growth and valuation narrative.

Sports and Live Content: A Growth Lever with Costs

The Simply Wall St note from November 28 zeroes in on Netflix’s push into live sports and global content deals, arguing this strategy helps explain both recent investor optimism and heightened volatility. ^[36]

External coverage over November has highlighted:

Bidding for premium sports rights (including baseball and wrestling). TS2 Tech+1
Experiments with live events and appointment‑viewing programming, complementing the traditional binge‑watch model. ^[37]

Sports and live rights can be expensive, however, which is one reason some analysts worry the operating leverage story could flatten if costs rise faster than expected. ^[38]

South India Strategy: From Film Rights to Local Originals

A new report from India’s Moneycontrol today adds a regional twist. Netflix is changing its strategy in South India, one of the world’s most dynamic content markets:

Instead of paying high prices to license Telugu, Tamil, Kannada and Malayalam films, Netflix is shifting spending toward original series and web dramas for those languages. ^[39]
The company has opened a new office in Hyderabad to support this push and has announced upcoming titles like Legacy, Takshakudu, Stephen, Super Subbu and Love, Made in Korea, aimed at both local and global audiences. ^[40]

The article notes that producers who previously relied on large pre‑release OTT deals are uneasy, but the shift may improve Netflix’s content ROI and give it more control over programming quality and release timing. ^[41]

For investors, the message is that Netflix is tightening its content economics in key regions rather than simply throwing money at costly film rights.

M&A Overhang: Netflix and the Warner Bros. Discovery Bidding War

The most dramatic overhang on the stock right now is the potential acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

Here’s the sequence so far:

October 31 – Reuters reports that Netflix is “actively exploring” a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming business, having hired a financial adviser and obtained access to financial information. ^[42]
November 20 – Reuters follows up that Warner Bros. Discovery has received preliminary bids from Paramount Skydance, Comcast and Netflix, kicking off a formal sale process. ^[43]
November 25 – Bloomberg and Reuters report that WBD has asked suitors to submit improved offers by December 1, after which the company may enter exclusive talks with a single bidder. ^[44]

Analysts and regulators are already flagging significant political and antitrust risk for any buyer, particularly regarding streaming concentration, theatrical market share and sports rights. ^[45]

For Netflix specifically, the stakes are high:

A successful bid would bring an enormous IP library (HBO, DC, Warner Bros. film catalog), but also massive integration and regulatory challenges. ^[46]
Rosenblatt explicitly states that its $152 target does not assume a WBD acquisition, framing any deal as an option, not a necessity. ^[47]

Investors are therefore treating the WBD process as a binary catalyst:

A win could materially expand Netflix’s content moat and theatrical footprint.
A loss—or decision to walk away—might actually reassure investors who are more worried about overpaying and regulatory headaches than about losing the asset.

Technical and Sentiment Check: Why the Stock is Off Its Highs

While earnings and M&A headlines tell one story, the price action has its own logic.

Recent technical commentary and trading‑desk analysis highlight:

Netflix is currently about 21% below its 52‑week high and down roughly 14% over the last month, even though it remains up around 20% year‑over‑year. ^[48]
The stock has broken below key moving averages, triggering algorithmic and momentum‑based selling. ^[49]
Chart watchers on Investopedia describe a descending triangle pattern, with key support levels around the pre‑split equivalent of $942 and upside resistance zones near $1,265–$1,341 on the old price scale. ^[50]

A separate breakdown from EBC notes that despite the recent drop, Netflix is still trading about 20% above its 52‑week low and roughly 20% higher than a year ago, suggesting the move is a correction within a longer‑term uptrend rather than a complete reversal. ^[51]

On the fundamentals‑plus‑sentiment side, a Seeking Alpha article published today under the title “Beyond the Binge: Netflix Stock Might Have Already Eaten the Feast” argues that:

Netflix remains a highly profitable streaming leader with strong international and ad‑tier growth.
But its pricing power may be fading, and the easy operational leverage gains could already be behind it, limiting future multiple expansion. ^[52]

That view lines up with the more cautious camp: Netflix might still be a good business, but the stock may already reflect much of that strength.

So What Actually Matters for Netflix Stock After November 29?

Looking beyond today’s flurry of notes and targets, several concrete catalysts stand out for Netflix investors heading into December and early 2026:

Warner Bros. Discovery Bid Outcome
- December 1 is the deadline for improved bids, and management’s stance—go big, walk away, or somewhere in between—could move the stock sharply. ^[53]
Holiday Quarter Performance
- Netflix guided to around 17% revenue growth in Q4 2025, leaning on big tentpole titles (including Stranger Things Season 5) and live events. ^[54]
- Actual engagement and subscriber figures over the holiday season will be closely scrutinised.
Ad‑Tier Trajectory
- Investors will look for confirmation that ad revenue is indeed doubling in 2025, that MAVs continue to climb, and that dynamic ad insertion for live events improves pricing power. ^[55]
Margin Recovery After the Brazil Tax Charge
- The market wants to see operating margins drift back toward the low‑30s once the Brazil dispute rolls off, confirming that the Q3 hit was truly one‑time. ^[56]
Valuation Compression or Re‑Rating
- With the stock trading in the mid‑40s on trailing earnings and analysts divided between “overvalued” and “40% upside,” the next few quarters of execution will likely determine whether Netflix’s multiple compresses toward industry norms or stays in premium territory. ^[57]

Bottom Line

As of November 29, 2025, Netflix stock is a paradox in motion:

Business: Growing revenue in the mid‑teens, expanding its ad business, experimenting aggressively with live sports and local originals, and generating substantial free cash flow. ^[58]
Stock: Trading about 20% below recent highs, but still at a premium valuation, with fair‑value estimates ranging from steep downside to meaningful upside depending on the model. ^[59]
Narrative: Balanced between excitement over ads, sports and potential M&A and concerns about valuation, regulatory risk, and sensitivity to any earnings stumble. ^[60]

For now, the November 29 news flow—from Rosenblatt’s slight target trim to Financial Modeling Prep’s 41% upside call—doesn’t resolve that tension. It simply underlines the central question for 2026:

Can Netflix’s growth in ads, live content and global originals justify a mid‑40s earnings multiple, or will the stock have to come down to earth even if the business keeps performing?

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