Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) heads into the final month of 2025 with its share price steady, its dividend higher, and a fresh batch of news that reshapes parts of its global portfolio.
Across the last 48 hours, investors have had to digest:
- A detailed breakdown of Exxon’s cash‑flow resilience in a weaker oil-price environment. [1]
- A new analysis of its methane‑pyrolysis push and pipeline partnership as part of its energy‑transition strategy. [2]
- The completed sale of French refining and chemicals assets to North Atlantic France SAS. [3]
- Fresh coverage of XOM’s November 28 trading session, dividend hike and institutional “big money” flows. TS2 Tech+1
Here’s how all of that fits together for Exxon Mobil stock as of Saturday, November 29, 2025.
XOM Stock Price Snapshot: Stable in the Mid‑$110s
Exxon Mobil closed Friday, November 28, 2025 at $115.95 per share, up about 1.0% on the day, with after‑hours trading nudging the price slightly lower to around $115.84. [4]
Over the last week, XOM has mostly traded in the mid‑$110s, with intraday highs approaching $119 and lows just under $115. [5]
On a longer view:
- Over the past 52 weeks, Exxon Mobil’s share price is down about 3.3%, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 18% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is down about 2.1%. [6]
- Year‑to‑date, XOM is up around 6.9%, still well behind the broader index’s ~17.2% gain. [7]
So as of today, Exxon looks less like a momentum trade and more like a large, cash‑generating value play that’s been quietly lagging the broader market.
Today’s Headline 1: Methane Pyrolysis and Pipeline Expansion
A new Simply Wall St article published on November 29 zooms in on how Exxon Mobil’s energy‑transition bets intersect with its traditional midstream investments. [8]
BASF–Exxon methane pyrolysis push
Exxon and BASF recently signed a joint development agreement to advance methane pyrolysis technology, with a demonstration plant in Germany designed to produce low‑emission hydrogen from natural gas. [9]
The idea:
- Split methane into hydrogen and solid carbon, rather than emitting CO₂.
- Use that hydrogen for industrial processes and potentially low‑carbon fuels.
From an equity angle, this matters less for 2026 earnings and more for the long‑term narrative: it’s one of the more tangible ways Exxon is trying to stay relevant in a decarbonizing world without abandoning its gas footprint.
40% stake in the Bahia NGL pipeline
On the “old‑school hydrocarbons” side of the ledger, Exxon is deepening its footprint in U.S. natural gas liquids (NGLs):
- Enterprise Products Partners confirmed that Exxon will buy a 40% stake in the Bahia NGL pipeline, reimbursing about $650 million for its share of project costs so far. [10]
- Bahia will initially move 600,000 barrels per day of NGLs from the Midland and Delaware basins to Mont Belvieu, Texas, and is expected to be expanded to 1 million barrels per day capacity via additional pumps and a 92‑mile extension to Exxon’s Cowboy gas processing plant in New Mexico. [11]
This is classic Exxon: lock in midstream infrastructure for a basin (the Permian) where it already has scale, which can support both production growth and more stable cash flows across commodity cycles.
Today’s Headline 2: Exit From Esso France Refining and Chemicals
Another key development hitting the tape this weekend is the completed sale of French downstream assets:
- North Atlantic France SAS has closed its acquisition of an 82.89% controlling interest in Esso Société Anonyme Française (Esso S.A.F.) and 100% of ExxonMobil Chemical France SAS from ExxonMobil France Holding. [12]
- The deal values Exxon’s Esso S.A.F. stake at €26.19 per share, with a mandatory tender offer at €28.93 per share for remaining shareholders. [13]
- Esso S.A.F. is being renamed North Atlantic Energies. [14]
This doesn’t move the needle on Exxon’s global market cap by itself, but it does fit a broader pattern:
- Simplify the asset base in mature, heavily regulated downstream markets.
- Free capital and management bandwidth for higher‑return projects in places like Guyana, the Permian Basin, and Mozambique LNG. [15]
For investors, it’s one more data point that Exxon is happy to shrink in some geographies while massively scaling up in others.
Fresh Coverage: Cash Flows, Dividend and “Big Money” Flows
A detailed TS2.Tech piece published today dissects how XOM traded on November 28, tying together price action, cash flows, dividend policy and institutional activity. TS2 Tech+1
Key takeaways from that synthesis (itself built on filings and third‑party data):
- Price action – XOM traded around the mid‑$110s, roughly in line with recent weeks. [16]
- Valuation – The stock sits at roughly 16× earnings and about 7.5× EV/EBITDA, a modest premium to the average energy peer, suggesting investors are paying up a bit for scale and balance‑sheet strength, but not treating XOM like a high‑growth tech stock. TS2 Tech
- Dividend profile – After its recent dividend increase, the forward yield lands in the mid‑3% range with a payout ratio around 60%, positioning Exxon as a “sleep‑at‑night” income stock rather than a maximum‑yield play. TS2 Tech+1
On the cash‑flow front, a Zacks‑authored note (syndicated via several platforms) emphasizes that:
- Exxon earns a large share of revenue from its upstream business, making it sensitive to swings in oil and gas prices.
- However, low‑cost barrels in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana are expected to keep cash flows robust even if crude prices soften, thanks to attractive breakeven levels on those projects. [17]
That is very much the core of the current XOM thesis: “If oil gets rough, the cheap barrels still pay.”
Q3 2025 Results and Dividend Hike: The Fundamental Backbone
Underpinning the latest commentary is a solid, if not spectacular, third quarter:
- Q3 2025 earnings came in at $7.5 billion, or $1.76 per share, on cash flow from operations of $14.8 billion and free cash flow of $6.3 billion. [18]
- Exxon returned $9.4 billion to shareholders in the quarter, including $4.2 billion of dividends and $5.1 billion of share repurchases. [19]
- Year‑to‑date earnings of $22.3 billion trail last year’s $26.1 billion, reflecting weaker crude prices, bottom‑of‑cycle chemical margins and higher depreciation, partially offset by volume growth in Guyana and the Permian and ongoing structural cost cuts. [20]
Most important for dividend investors:
- Exxon raised its fourth‑quarter dividend to $1.03 per share, up 4%, marking 43 consecutive years of annual dividend‑per‑share growth. [21]
That streak is one big reason income‑oriented investors are willing to hold a stock that isn’t keeping pace with the S&P 500’s rally.
Guyana and the Permian: Low‑Cost Growth Engine
The news flow from Exxon’s megaprojects continues to lean positive.
Guyana hits 900,000 barrels per day
Exxon’s Guyana arm recently announced that daily production in the Stabroek block has reached 900,000 barrels of oil per day, following the ramp‑up of the Yellowtail project to full capacity. [22]
A few key numbers from recent Guyana releases:
- Four FPSOs (Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, Payara, Yellowtail) now support production. [23]
- By 2030, production capacity from eight developments is expected to reach about 1.7 million barrels per day. [24]
- The Hammerhead project, the seventh Stabroek development, has reached final investment decision, targeting ~150,000 barrels per day starting around 2029, and lifting installed capacity on the block to about 1.5 million barrels per day before later projects. [25]
This is one of the most productive offshore developments in the world, and it shows up clearly in Exxon’s upstream volumes and its commentary about “advantaged barrels.”
Permian plus midstream
In the U.S. Permian Basin, Exxon’s production is hovering near 1.7 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day, a new record cited in its Q3 release. [26]
Adding the Bahia NGL stake and Cowboy Connector extension to Exxon’s existing Permian position further ties volumes to infrastructure it partially owns, which tends to support margins and reduce midstream bottleneck risk. [27]
Combine Guyana and the Permian, and you get the main reason analysts think XOM’s cash flows can stay strong even if crude prices drift lower over the next couple of years. [28]
Hydrogen, LNG and the Energy Transition: Mixed Messages
Not all of the recent energy‑transition headlines point in the same direction.
Hydrogen plant plan frozen
Reuters reported that Exxon has paused plans to build what would have been one of the world’s largest blue‑hydrogen plants at its Baytown, Texas complex. CEO Darren Woods cited weak customer demand and the difficulty of signing long‑term off‑take contracts at prices that justify the additional cost of capturing and storing CO₂. [29]
The company and its partners have reportedly invested about $500 million into the project so far and may resume when market demand improves. [30]
Mozambique LNG gets back on track
By contrast, Exxon’s Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique has just taken a step forward:
- Exxon has lifted force majeure on the project, which had been suspended since 2021 due to security concerns. [31]
- The company still expects a final investment decision in 2026, with first LNG targeted around 2030, assuming the security situation remains manageable. [32]
Taken together, these moves suggest Exxon is:
- Cautious on capital‑intensive “new” low‑carbon projects that lack clear long‑term customers.
- Still ready to commit billions to LNG and oil projects where it believes demand and economics are more predictable.
That balance is part of why some investors see Exxon as an energy‑transition “hedged bet” rather than a pure fossil‑fuel holdout or a green‑energy pivot.
Analyst Views and Valuation: Undervalued or Just Fairly Priced?
Recent valuation work from different research shops paints an interesting picture.
Discounted cash‑flow and multiples
Simply Wall St’s latest deep dive estimates an intrinsic value of about $285 per share for Exxon Mobil based on a discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model using forecast free cash flow rising from about $28.1 billion today to roughly $44.7 billion by 2029. At current prices, that implies the stock is trading at around a 60% discount to that fair value estimate. [33]
They also note:
- XOM’s current P/E ratio near 16.1× compares to an oil‑and‑gas industry average of about 13.1×, but below a “fair” ratio of ~22.7× in their model, again arguing for undervaluation. [34]
Separately, IndexBox cites a Wall Street consensus that:
- Projects 2025 EPS around $6.79, down about 12.8% year‑over‑year.
- Assigns a “Moderate Buy” rating from 27 analysts: 15 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, 10 Holds and 1 Strong Sell.
- Puts the average price target at roughly $126.5, with a Street‑high of $156, implying roughly 10% to 35% upside from recent levels. [35]
Meanwhile, TS2.Tech’s synthesis places XOM in the “quality at a reasonable price” bucket given its mid‑teens P/E, mid‑single‑digit free‑cash‑flow yield, and mid‑3% dividend yield. TS2 Tech
Different methodologies, same basic conclusion: Exxon isn’t cheap on a distressed basis, but many analysts think the market is under‑pricing the durability of its cash flows.
Institutions: Norges Bank Buys, Others Trim
The latest institutional flow data, as summarized in that November 29 TS2.Tech article, shows a tug‑of‑war among big money: TS2 Tech
- Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, disclosed a new position of about 57.2 million Exxon shares in Q2, worth roughly $6.16 billion, making Exxon its 15th‑largest holding and giving it around 1.34% ownership of Exxon. TS2 Tech
- At the same time, several asset managers reduced their XOM stakes:
- Scotia Capital, Boston Partners, Virtue Capital Management and F m Investments each trimmed holdings by between roughly 5% and 60% in recent quarters. TS2 Tech
Overall, about 62% of Exxon’s stock is held by hedge funds and other institutions, underlining how much professional money still sees Exxon as a core energy holding. TS2 Tech
The way to read this is:
- Long‑horizon investors (like Norges) are leaning into Exxon as a defensive, cash‑rich compounder.
- Some active managers are locking in gains or rebalancing after the post‑pandemic energy rally, not necessarily abandoning the story.
Key Risks and What to Watch Next
Despite the positive spin in much of the recent coverage, there are real risks investors are tracking:
- Oil and gas prices – Prolonged weakness in crude or gas prices could eventually overwhelm the benefits of low‑cost assets, especially if global demand surprises to the downside. [36]
- Regulatory and political overhang – The FTC’s renewed scrutiny of Exxon’s Pioneer acquisition earlier this year, even if the case file is now closed, shows that big oil M&A remains in the political spotlight. TS2 Tech
- Execution risk on megaprojects – Guyana, the Permian build‑out, Rovuma LNG and the Bahia NGL expansion all require flawless project execution over many years. Exxon’s track record is strong, but not immune to cost overruns or geopolitical shocks. [37]
- Energy‑transition uncertainty – The Baytown hydrogen pause is a reminder that returns on “low‑carbon” projects depend heavily on policy, subsidies and customer willingness to pay. [38]
Bottom Line for Exxon Mobil Stock on November 29, 2025
Put all of today’s and this week’s headlines together and you get a reasonably coherent story:
- Price – XOM is trading around the mid‑$110s, roughly flat in recent weeks and trailing the S&P over the past year. [39]
- Fundamentals – Q3 results confirmed strong cash generation, rising low‑cost production from Guyana and the Permian, and disciplined capital spending. [40]
- Capital returns – A 4% dividend hike and ongoing buybacks signal management confidence in medium‑term cash flows. [41]
- Strategy – Exxon is pruning mature downstream assets in Europe, doubling down on advantaged hydrocarbons, cautiously advancing LNG, and selectively investing in transition technologies like methane pyrolysis. [42]
- Sentiment – Analysts sit at “Moderate Buy” with modest upside targets, while big institutions are repositioning rather than fleeing. [43]
For now, Exxon Mobil looks less like a speculative bet and more like what it has quietly become: a giant, relatively low‑cost oil and gas machine with a big dividend, heavy institutional ownership, and a long list of multi‑year projects that will determine whether 2025’s “reasonable valuation” eventually looks like a bargain or a value trap.
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. simplywall.st, 3. www.globenewswire.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.indexbox.io, 7. www.indexbox.io, 8. simplywall.st, 9. simplywall.st, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 19. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 20. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 21. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 22. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 23. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 24. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 25. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 26. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. simplywall.st, 35. www.indexbox.io, 36. www.tradingview.com, 37. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 41. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 42. www.globenewswire.com, 43. www.indexbox.io
