Ripple’s XRP is heading into the final days of November under heavy technical and macro pressure. As of November 29, 2025, XRP is trading roughly in the $2.18–$2.22 zone, down about 1% over the past 24 hours but still more than 40% higher than a year ago. [1]
The mood, however, is decidedly cautious. A fresh death cross on XRP’s daily chart, soft spot ETF inflows, and a cluster of bearish targets around $1.50–$1.55 have put bulls on the defensive just as a new XRP spot ETF launches and exchange balances continue to drain. [2]
Below, we break down what’s driving the latest XRP volatility, why multiple analysts are watching the $1.50–$2.20 band so closely, and what this environment means not just for traders, but also for Web3 startups and businesses built around Ripple’s ecosystem.
XRP price today: trading just above $2 as volatility returns
On November 29, most data providers show XRP changing hands near $2.18–$2.22, after a choppy week that saw repeated failures to hold above the $2.20–$2.24 region. [3]
Key context:
- Short‑term performance: XRP slipped back under $2.20 after briefly recovering earlier in the week, reinforcing a downtrend that began after summer’s ETF‑driven highs. [4]
- From all‑time highs: FXEmpire notes XRP hit around $3.66 on Binance in July as spot ETF optimism peaked; today’s price leaves it roughly 40% below those levels. [5]
- Volatility cluster: Over the last two weeks, XRP has repeatedly bounced between roughly $2.10 and $2.30, with each attempt to break higher fading quickly as sellers step in near resistance zones. [6]
In other words: XRP is not collapsing, but it’s also not acting like a healthy, trending bull market. Instead, it’s sitting in a fragile mid‑range where one big move could decide whether the next leg is a retest of summer highs—or a slide back toward the mid‑$1 area.
The new XRP death cross: why it matters this time
The main headline hanging over XRP this weekend is the death cross on the daily chart—when the 50‑day moving average crosses below the 200‑day moving average, a classic bearish signal watched by technical traders. [7]
Recent coverage highlights several important points:
- Fresh confirmation of trend weakness:
- CoinDesk reports that XRP’s latest breakdown from around $2.22 to $2.18 came just as the daily death cross printed, reinforcing a descending price channel that has been in place for weeks. [8]
- Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are stuck in negative territory, showing sellers still in control of short‑term price action. [9]
- Historical context:
- Finbold notes that prior death crosses on XRP have accompanied drawdowns of up to about 15%, which—off a ~$2.17 price—points roughly toward the $1.50 region. [10]
- A OneSafe analysis aimed at startups echoes this, pointing out that the last notable XRP death cross coincided with a drop of roughly that magnitude. [11]
- Reinforced by the 200‑day moving average:
- Yellow.com stresses that XRP has repeatedly failed to reclaim its 200‑day moving average around $2.72, and that the death cross on the daily EMA stack is one of the more powerful bearish signals in classical technical analysis. [12]
Taken together, the fresh death cross is less about a single indicator and more about confluence: weakening momentum, failure at major moving averages, and a pattern that has historically signaled extended corrective phases for XRP.
Historical patterns and the $1.50–$1.55 danger zone
Several recent reports suggest that if XRP cannot hold current support levels, gravity could pull the price toward a cluster of lower supports between roughly $1.82 and $1.50.
What the charts are saying
- First line of defense: $2.17–$2.20 and $2.08
- CoinDesk describes the $2.17–$2.18 zone as a “decision area.” A clean break below that level exposes $2.08, followed by the broader $1.90 region, which separates a normal correction from a deeper retracement. [13]
- The $1.88–$1.82 “decision maker” zone
- Finbold cites analyst Umair, who sees XRP consolidating in a band between $1.90 and $2.08, calling it the key range that decides whether the asset can base for weeks—or breaks down. Previous death crosses, they note, have telegraphed moves that eventually dragged price toward the low‑$1.80s. [14]
- CoinCentral’s separate analysis of the upcoming ETF launch also references $1.88–$1.82 as critical support where prior consolidation has taken place. [15]
- Deeper bearish targets: $1.55 and $1.50
- Coinfomania warns that a descending triangle pattern, combined with bearish RSI divergence, could send XRP toward $1.55, a level identified as key long‑term support; a clean break below that zone could trigger significantly heavier losses. [16]
- Finbold’s historical death‑cross study suggests that, measured from current prices, a similar magnitude drop could place XRP in the $1.50 area, matching warnings in CoinDesk’s own death‑cross‑focused coverage. [17]
For now, these lower levels are risk markers, not inevitabilities. But as long as XRP trades below its major moving averages and fails at nearby resistance, many professional traders will keep them on their charts.
“Bulls lose grip”: short‑term technicals around $2.20–$2.28
Zooming into the intraday picture, XRP’s latest attempts to bounce have been consistently capped by tight resistance bands.
A NewsBTC analysis published on TradingView under the headline “XRP Bulls Lose Grip as Signals Point Toward Another Decline” highlights a few key details: [18]
- XRP recently pushed above $2.20 and even tagged $2.24–$2.28, but failed to hold those gains.
- The price is now hovering near $2.18 and its 100‑hour simple moving average.
- A bearish trend line has formed with resistance around $2.225, adding overhead pressure.
- If XRP closes decisively below $2.15, the analysis warns of a fresh leg down, with the next local supports below $2 coming into view.
CoinDesk’s broader technical read aligns with this: they see XRP trading inside a descending channel, printing a series of lower highs, with every bounce stalling before RSI can reclaim neutral territory. [19]
In short: the micro‑trend is still down, and bulls have not yet reclaimed the key levels that would flip the short‑term structure back in their favor.
ETF flows, whales and exchange supply: bearish tape, bullish undercurrent
The ETF story, once a clear bullish catalyst, has grown more complicated.
Weak near‑term ETF flows
FXEmpire’s November 29 report argues that XRP‑spot ETF flows have underwhelmed, especially versus the blockbuster debut of Bitcoin ETFs: [20]
- XRP spot ETFs have attracted roughly $644 million in net inflows since launch—respectable, but modest relative to expectations.
- Despite this, the underlying price has slipped below $2.20, and the death cross has turned technical sentiment bearish.
- The author warns that the combination of muted ETF demand and the death cross could drive XRP back toward the November low near $1.8239, especially if key U.S. regulatory and policy decisions break negatively.
At the same time, FXEmpire notes macro tailwinds—like rising odds of a December Fed rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening—have probably prevented an even sharper XRP sell‑off. [21]
21Shares’ TOXR ETF debuts as supply leaves exchanges
Even as flows into existing products cool, the ecosystem of XRP ETFs is still expanding:
- A Coinpaper report syndicated via CryptoRank confirms that the 21Shares XRP Spot ETF (ticker: TOXR) received approval and is scheduled to launch on November 29, joining products from Franklin Templeton, Grayscale and Canary. [22]
- CoinCentral adds that XRP is trading around $2.20 as markets brace for TOXR’s debut, with the token testing the upper boundary of a descending channel and key resistances at $2.25, $2.60 and $3.13. [23]
On‑chain and exchange data add an intriguing twist:
- Both CoinDesk and CoinCentral point out that Binance’s XRP reserves have dropped to about 2.7 billion tokens, down roughly 300 million XRP since early October, a multi‑month low. [24]
- Yellow.com reports that more than 216 million XRP left exchanges in the week leading up to the first U.S. spot ETF launch earlier in November, even as some whale wallets trimmed holdings. [25]
- Finbold notes a similar pattern: exchange‑held reserves falling alongside price—often interpreted as long‑term accumulation even when the chart looks weak. [26]
The takeaway: near‑term sentiment is bearish, but structural supply trends are quietly bullish. Fewer tokens sitting on exchanges mean less instant sell pressure—yet without stronger demand, that alone can’t reverse a death‑cross‑driven downtrend.
Not everyone is bearish: bullish divergence and “Wave 5” hopes
Despite the gloomy headlines, a different camp of analysts sees the early stages of a potential bullish reversal forming under the surface.
Bullish RSI divergence and higher‑timeframe structure
Brave New Coin highlights an emerging bullish divergence on XRP’s daily RSI—the indicator is starting to rise while price has printed lower lows, historically a sign that selling pressure may be fading. [27]
Their piece notes:
- XRP was trading near $2.22 when the divergence was identified.
- A similar RSI pattern appeared at XRP’s 2022 bear‑market bottom, just before one of its stronger counter‑trend rallies.
- Several analysts using Elliott Wave theory argue that XRP may be approaching the fifth and final wave of its current upward cycle, provided it can clear nearby resistance.
One of those Elliott Wave‑focused views, covered by Brave New Coin, flags $2.60 as a critical resistance that could unlock a move toward the $4 region if broken with strong volume—though that outcome is explicitly described as contingent on a decisive breakout. [28]
“Wave 5” and targets above $5
CryptoPotato separately reports on analyst “Dark Defender,” who believes XRP has completed a monthly Wave 4 correction around $1.88, with signs that Wave 5 could be starting: [29]
- A breakout above a descending resistance line, alongside a move past roughly $2.22, is seen as the first confirmation.
- If that breakout occurs and XRP clears subsequent resistance layers, the analysis maps long‑term targets near $5.85, based on Fibonacci extensions.
Meanwhile, a November 29 market review from U.Today suggests XRP is showing an “early‑stage bullish reversal” inside a descending channel, with $2 acting as a reasonable short‑term upside target if momentum continues to rebuild. [30]
These views don’t cancel out the death cross or the $1.50 risk—they simply underscore that the technical picture is divided, with lower‑timeframe charts leaning bearish while some higher‑timeframe structures still allow for one last push higher if bulls can reclaim key levels.
Beyond traders: what XRP’s death cross means for startups and Web3 businesses
The OneSafe blog takes a different angle, focusing on what XRP’s death cross and broader crypto volatility mean for startups and Web3 companies that operate with significant exposure to the token. [31]
Key messages for builders:
- Treat the death cross as a warning light, not a doomsday signal.
The pattern is a reminder to re‑examine runway, treasury allocation and revenue stability rather than something that should dictate panic moves. - Prioritize real utility over speculation.
Projects solving real problems in areas like AI, DeFi infrastructure or cross‑border payments are better positioned to attract long‑term capital, even if token prices chop around. - Diversify geography and revenue streams.
The article highlights emerging tech hubs such as Brazil, Argentina and Mexico as examples of markets where startups can diversify users, partners and regulators instead of relying on a single jurisdiction or customer base. - Use modern risk‑management tools.
Proactive strategies—such as automated stop‑loss tools, treasury dashboards, and multi‑asset balance sheets—can reduce the impact of sudden 10–20% moves in XRP and other volatile assets. - Lean on stablecoins for payroll and operations.
OneSafe points out that a growing share of businesses now use stablecoins like USDT and USDC to pay salaries and suppliers, citing 2025 projections that over a quarter of companies could be using some form of crypto for payroll. This helps keep core operating expenses stable even when native ecosystem tokens like XRP are swinging. [32]
For founders and CFOs, the message is simple: don’t build your entire business model around XRP’s price. Use it where it makes sense (liquidity, settlement, ecosystem alignment), but anchor day‑to‑day operations in more stable assets.
Key XRP levels and scenarios to watch into December
Given all of the above, here are the levels most analysts are watching:
Immediate resistance
- $2.20–$2.24: Local pivot zone. Reclaiming and holding above this area would be the first sign that bulls are clawing back control. [33]
- $2.25–$2.28: Short‑term resistance where recent rallies have stalled. Clearing this with volume would weaken the short‑term downtrend. [34]
- $2.60: Widely flagged as a decisive resistance. Several bullish outlooks link a breakout above this level with potential runs toward $4–$5+. [35]
Critical support
- $2.00: Psychological round‑number support referenced in multiple short‑term analyses. [36]
- $1.90–$2.08: The “decision maker” range where consolidation could turn into either a base or a breakdown. [37]
- $1.88–$1.82: Major historical support identified as a likely retest area if current levels fail. [38]
- $1.55: Key structural support from descending‑triangle analyses; a clean break below would signal a deeper bear leg. [39]
- $1.50: The rough downside zone implied by historical death‑cross drops from current prices. [40]
Scenario snapshots (not financial advice)
These are generalized scenarios synthesizing what different analysts are discussing, not predictions or recommendations:
- Base case (sideways‑to‑slightly‑down):
XRP chops between roughly $1.82 and $2.30 while the market digests ETF flows, macro data and U.S. regulatory headlines. - Bear case:
The price loses $2.00, then the $1.88–$1.82 band, accelerating toward $1.55–$1.50 if ETF demand stays weak and macro/rule‑making news skews negative. - Bull case:
Strong ETF inflows, improving macro sentiment and a clean break above $2.60 turn the death cross into a “fake‑out,” with price re‑testing $3+ and potentially stretching toward prior analyst targets between $4 and $5.85. [41]
None of these are guaranteed. They’re simply roadmaps traders are updating as new data comes in.
How traders and long‑term holders can think about the current setup
Nothing in this article is investment advice, but the recent coverage suggests a few broad principles for anyone watching XRP right now:
- Respect the trend and your timeframe.
On daily charts, the death cross and lower highs signal a bearish or at best corrective environment. Short‑term traders often respond by tightening risk and avoiding oversized positions in assets that haven’t reclaimed key moving averages. - Avoid over‑reliance on a single indicator.
The death cross and bearish EMAs are important, but they’re being weighed against bullish RSI divergence, Elliott Wave structures and declining exchange supply. Most professional traders treat any one signal as a piece of a larger puzzle, not a stand‑alone trigger. - Watch macro and regulatory catalysts.
FXEmpire and others highlight several near‑term events: Fed policy, the U.S. Market Structure Bill, decisions around Ripple’s banking charter application, and MSCI’s stance on digital‑asset treasuries. These could matter as much as the chart itself over the next few months. [42] - For builders and companies, de‑risk operations.
Startups that earn or hold XRP can:- Sweep a portion of inflows into stablecoins or fiat for predictable expenses. [43]
- Diversify banking and on‑ramp partners across multiple jurisdictions.
- Stress‑test their runway under scenarios where XRP trades at $1.50 or lower for an extended period.
- For individual investors, size and diversification matter.
Because XRP’s short‑term outlook is genuinely mixed—bearish trend, but potentially constructive higher‑timeframe setups—position sizing, diversification across assets, and a clearly defined time horizon become more important than trying to nail the perfect bottom or top.
As of November 29, 2025, XRP sits at a crossroads: technicals scream caution, ETF flows are softer than hoped, but exchange supply trends, structural adoption via new ETFs, and some higher‑timeframe signals leave the door open for a recovery later in the cycle.
References
1. ycharts.com, 2. www.coindesk.com, 3. ycharts.com, 4. www.coindesk.com, 5. www.fxempire.com, 6. www.coindesk.com, 7. www.onesafe.io, 8. www.coindesk.com, 9. www.coindesk.com, 10. finbold.com, 11. www.onesafe.io, 12. yellow.com, 13. www.coindesk.com, 14. finbold.com, 15. coincentral.com, 16. coinfomania.com, 17. finbold.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.coindesk.com, 20. www.fxempire.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. cryptorank.io, 23. coincentral.com, 24. www.coindesk.com, 25. yellow.com, 26. finbold.com, 27. bravenewcoin.com, 28. bravenewcoin.com, 29. cryptopotato.com, 30. u.today, 31. www.onesafe.io, 32. www.onesafe.io, 33. www.coindesk.com, 34. www.tradingview.com, 35. bravenewcoin.com, 36. www.fxempire.com, 37. finbold.com, 38. coincentral.com, 39. coinfomania.com, 40. finbold.com, 41. bravenewcoin.com, 42. www.fxempire.com, 43. www.onesafe.io
