Investors are still digesting a turbulent week for Deere & Company (NYSE: DE). As of Saturday, November 29, 2025, the most recent close for Deere stock is $464.49, down about 1.14% in the latest trading session, with roughly 1.68 million shares changing hands. Despite the pullback, the shares remain up around 11% year to date. [1]
The current move is less about a single bad headline and more about a stack of developments: solid Q4 sales but weaker profits, tariff-driven margin pressure, a sharply lower profit outlook for fiscal 2026, a fresh price‑target cut, and notable insider selling by the CEO. Put together, they define the Deere & Company stock story as of November 29.
Key takeaways for Deere & Company stock today
- Price now: Last close at $464.49, down 1.14% on Friday’s session; still up about 10–11% in 2025. [2]
- Earnings picture: Q4 2025 revenue grew 11% year over year, but quarterly net income fell 14%, and full‑year profit dropped 29%. [3]
- Guidance shock: Fiscal 2026 net income is now forecast at $4.0–$4.75 billion, below Wall Street expectations of roughly $5.2–$5.3 billion. [4]
- Tariff hit: Deere expects a $1.2 billion pre‑tax tariff cost in 2026, roughly double the impact in 2025. [5]
- Analyst split: Evercore ISI cut its price target to $458 and kept a neutral rating, while Truist, RBC and UBS remain bullish with targets in the $535–$612 range. [6]
- Insider signal: CEO John C. May II recently sold 11,106 shares at roughly $500, trimming his personal stake by about 9%, though he still owns more than 112,000 shares. [7]
Where Deere & Company stock stands as of November 29, 2025
Deere shares closed the last session at $464.49, down $5.38 on the day (‑1.14%). Trading volume near 1.68 million shares was in line with recent averages, pointing to steady but not panicked selling. [8]
Over a longer horizon, the picture is less gloomy. Smartkarma data and Barchart coverage both highlight that Deere is up high single‑ to low double‑digits year to date, and has actually outperformed the Nasdaq Composite over the past 12 months, even if it has lagged major benchmarks in the last few sessions. [9]
The past two days of weakness mainly extend a sell‑off that accelerated after Wednesday’s earnings release and guidance update, when headlines repeatedly framed the report as a “beat and guide down” story and noted that the stock fell about 5–6% in response. [10]
Q4 2025: strong sales, weaker profits
Deere’s fiscal fourth quarter, ended November 2, 2025, was not a classic “bad quarter” – but it was a structurally difficult one.
According to the company’s official release, Deere reported: [11]
- Q4 net income:$1.065 billion, down from $1.245 billion a year earlier (‑14%).
- Q4 diluted EPS:$3.93 vs $4.55 last year.
- Q4 net sales & revenues:$12.394 billion, up 11% year over year.
- Full‑year 2025 net income:$5.027 billion, down 29% from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024.
- Full‑year 2025 net sales & revenues:$45.684 billion, down 12% year over year.
Different data providers show slightly different consensus EPS estimates: Zacks had $3.96, implying a small miss, while other services quoted around $3.85–$3.90, suggesting a modest beat. [12] The consistent theme is that revenue clearly beat expectations, while profit margins disappointed.
By segment, Deere’s sales mix tells you where the strength – and pain – is: [13]
- Production & Precision Agriculture
- Net sales rose about 10% in Q4.
- Operating margin slipped from 15.3% to 12.7%, squeezed by higher production costs and tariffs.
- Small Agriculture & Turf
- Net sales grew 7%, but operating margin collapsed from 10.1% to roughly 1%, driven by tariffs, warranty costs and other production expenses.
- Construction & Forestry
- Net sales jumped 27% and operating profit rose modestly, supported by continued strength in infrastructure and non‑residential projects.
In other words: Deere is selling plenty of equipment, especially in construction and high‑tech farm machinery, but it is earning less on each dollar of sales than it did a year ago.
The 2026 guidance that spooked the market
The real blow to Deere’s stock price came from its outlook for fiscal 2026.
Deere now expects net income between $4.0 billion and $4.75 billion for 2026. That’s down from $5.027 billion in 2025, and below analyst expectations, which clustered around $5.2–$5.3 billion according to Reuters and other financial data providers. [14]
Management has been open about the culprits:
- Tariffs: Deere estimates a pre‑tax tariff hit of roughly $1.2 billion in 2026, versus about $600 million in 2025, effectively doubling the drag from trade policy on its income statement. [15]
- Large‑farm slowdown: Deere expects sales to large U.S. and Canadian farms to fall 15–20% next year as low crop prices, high input costs and uncertainty over trade keep farmers cautious on big-ticket machinery. [16]
- Shift to used equipment: With budgets tight, more customers are turning to rentals and used machines, which typically carry lower margins than new production. [17]
CEO John May has described 2026 as likely marking the bottom of the current large‑agricultural cycle, with better prospects beyond that point, but the near‑term message to investors is unmistakable: profit is expected to fall again before it recovers. [18]
Fresh headlines on November 29: price action and narrative
A new Smartkarma note published on November 29 highlighted Deere’s $464.49 share price and 1.14% daily decline, framing it as part of a broader digestion of “mixed performance,” where strong revenue and solid equipment sales are offset by a downbeat outlook and tariff pressures. [19]
That note also pointed to: [20]
- A year‑to‑date gain of roughly 10.9%, evidence that the stock has not been a disaster despite the recent drop.
- Active analyst forecast revisions and growing dispersion in targets as opinions split on how quickly margins can recover.
- A still‑bullish structural story centered on precision agriculture technology and international expansion, which could drive growth into the next cycle despite current headwinds.
At the same time, Zacks’ coverage – echoed via Yahoo Finance and Nasdaq – emphasizes the 5.7% post‑earnings slump and the 14% year‑over‑year decline in quarterly earnings, linking Deere’s move to weakness in related agriculture‑focused ETFs. [21]
Analysts are sharply divided on Deere’s next move
Evercore turns cautious
On November 28, Evercore ISI cut its price target from $487 to $458 and kept an “In Line” (neutral) rating on Deere. [22]
In its note, as reported by Investing.com, Evercore: [23]
- Flagged that Q1 2026 earnings are likely to come in “well below consensus”,
- Saw no clear evidence yet of improving fundamentals in the agriculture equipment market,
- Forecast only modest pricing gains through 2026, and
- Argued that potential upside in the second half of 2026 is “not yet visible enough” to justify aggressive positioning at today’s valuation.
From this perspective, Deere is a stock to hold or trade cautiously, not a screaming bargain.
Others are still optimistic
Not every analyst is ready to downgrade Deere’s long‑term story. The same batch of recent rating updates includes: [24]
- Truist Securities – Raised its target to $612 and reiterated a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in Deere’s technology roadmap and eventual margin recovery.
- RBC Capital – Nudged its target slightly lower to $541 but maintained an Outperform view, and in commentary highlighted by Finimize, argued Deere could grow faster than the broader farm‑equipment industry by 2026 as crop conditions, government support and interest rates improve.
- Oppenheimer – Lifted its target to $531, citing positive progress in automation and precision ag adoption.
- UBS – Reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $535 target, essentially asking investors to look through 2026 and focus on a potential 2027 recovery.
MarketBeat’s compilation of broker research still shows an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average price target in the low‑$500s, above the current share price. [25]
The short version: Wall Street is split into two camps – those who see Deere as an attractive cyclical buying opportunity once tariffs and farm incomes normalize, and those worried that the next few quarters will be rough enough to warrant patience.
Insider selling and institutional flows
Another storyline catching investors’ attention this week is insider and institutional activity in Deere shares.
MarketBeat filings and insider‑trade trackers show that: [26]
- CEO John C. May II sold 11,106 Deere shares on November 25 at an average price around $500.08, a sale worth approximately $5.55 million. His remaining direct ownership stands at about 112,453 shares, so the transaction reduced his stake by roughly 9% but leaves him heavily invested in the company’s future.
- A mix of institutional investors – including Korea Investment Corp and several asset managers – have disclosed both increases and reductions in Deere holdings in Q1, leaving overall institutional ownership around 68–69% of shares outstanding. [27]
CEO stock sales always raise eyebrows, but this looks more like portfolio management than an executive exiting the story altogether. The high level of institutional ownership suggests that large funds remain deeply involved in the name, even if they are actively rebalancing after the guidance cut.
Tariffs, Trump and the farm cycle: the macro backdrop
What makes Deere interesting right now is that it sits at the crossroads of several big macro stories.
Reuters and follow‑up commentary highlight that Deere expects tariffs to cost about $1.2 billion pre‑tax in fiscal 2026, double the roughly $600 million impact in 2025. [28] Much of this is tied to the latest wave of trade measures under U.S. President Donald Trump, which have raised the cost of imported components and complicated export markets for U.S. farm equipment.
Axios notes that U.S. farmers face a two‑year slump driven by low commodity prices, high input costs and trade tensions, and that Deere projects double‑digit declines in large‑farm equipment sales in the U.S. and Canada next year as a result. [29]
Layered on top of that:
- Government support and bailouts for farmers may soften the blow but have not yet sparked a full recovery in equipment demand. [30]
- Used equipment markets and rentals are absorbing some demand that might otherwise go to new machines, compressing margins. [31]
- Analysts like those cited by TalkMarkets and CFRA see 2027, not 2026, as the more realistic recovery point for margins if tariffs stay in place. [32]
For Deere shareholders, that means the macro headwinds are real, quantifiable, and not purely “sentiment.” The stock is now trading on the tension between that worsening near‑term outlook and the enduring strength of the company’s brand, technology and dealer network.
The long‑term Deere story isn’t dead – it’s just messy
Despite the rough headlines, most coverage still treats Deere as a high‑quality cyclical leader dealing with a tough phase of its cycle rather than a broken business.
Several recent analyses, including Smartkarma research and Finimize’s recap of RBC’s view, stress that: [33]
- Deere’s precision agriculture platform – data‑driven planting, autonomous tractors, variable‑rate application – remains a key differentiator that could unlock higher productivity for farmers once budgets normalize.
- The company’s construction and forestry segment is benefiting from infrastructure and housing trends and is not tied as tightly to grain prices.
- Deere has already implemented structural cost improvements, which helped it deliver what management calls its “best results yet for this point in the cycle,” even with earnings down from peak levels.
- If tariffs ease, crop prices stabilize and rates drift lower, the operating leverage in this model cuts both ways – the same forces that hurt margins in 2025–2026 could help them snap back later in the decade.
That’s why some analysts are comfortable recommending patience rather than capitulation, even as others tell clients to stay on the sidelines until visibility improves.
What to watch next for Deere & Company stock
For investors tracking Deere & Company around November 29, 2025, the next few catalysts are fairly clear:
- Tariff policy developments – Any shift in U.S. trade policy that reduces the projected $1.2 billion tariff hit would materially change the earnings math. [34]
- Crop prices and farm income – Better corn and soybean prices, or more generous farm‑support programs, could pull forward the recovery in large‑tractor demand. [35]
- Q1 2026 results vs expectations – Evercore’s warning that Q1 will be “well below consensus” sets up a key test in the next earnings report. [36]
- Margin trends in Small Ag & Turf – With margins collapsing to around 1% in the latest quarter, even a modest rebound here would be read positively by the market. [37]
- Further insider and institutional moves – Additional large insider sales or aggressive fund selling would reinforce the bearish case, while renewed accumulation by long‑term investors would support the bull case. [38]
For now, Deere & Company stock on November 29, 2025 sits in classic “show me” territory: cheap enough for some long‑term optimists to start sharpening their pencils, but facing enough near‑term earnings risk and macro uncertainty that others are content to wait for clearer skies.
References
1. www.smartkarma.com, 2. www.smartkarma.com, 3. www.newswire.ca, 4. www.newswire.ca, 5. talkmarkets.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.smartkarma.com, 9. www.smartkarma.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.newswire.ca, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.newswire.ca, 14. www.newswire.ca, 15. talkmarkets.com, 16. www.axios.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.newswire.ca, 19. www.smartkarma.com, 20. www.smartkarma.com, 21. www.zacks.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.axios.com, 30. www.axios.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. talkmarkets.com, 33. www.smartkarma.com, 34. talkmarkets.com, 35. www.axios.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.newswire.ca, 38. www.marketbeat.com
