Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Today: Trillion‑Dollar Weight‑Loss Giant Pulls Back After November Surge

By [Author Name] – November 29, 2025

Eli Lilly and Company’s stock has cooled after an explosive November rally that briefly turned the 149‑year‑old drugmaker into the world’s first trillion‑dollar pharmaceutical company. ^[1]

On Friday, November 28, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) closed at $1,075.47, down about 2.6% on the day, dragging the S&P 500 healthcare sector into the red even as the broader U.S. market finished higher in thin post‑holiday trading. ^[2] Despite that pullback, LLY remains up more than 30% in November and over 40% year‑to‑date, cementing its status as one of 2025’s most powerful large‑cap winners. ^[3]

This article rounds up the key Eli Lilly stock news on November 29, 2025, and explains what’s driving the share price, how analysts now value the company, and which risks investors are watching.

Eli Lilly stock today: price, performance and context

• Last close (Nov 28, 2025): $1,075.47
• Daily move: –2.6%
• Volume: ~2.7 million shares, below recent averages ^[4]
• Year‑to‑date performance: roughly +40–43%
• Market capitalization: around $1.0–1.1 trillion, keeping Lilly in the exclusive trillion‑dollar club even after the dip. ^[5]

A Reuters‑syndicated market recap notes that healthcare was the only S&P 500 sector in the red on Friday, weighed down by Lilly’s 2.6% slide, while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all advanced on optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. ^[6]

In other words, Friday’s weakness was stock‑specific, not a broad risk‑off move.

Today’s key Eli Lilly (LLY) headlines – November 29, 2025

Several fresh pieces of coverage landed today or over the weekend, shaping the narrative around LLY:

1. Smartkarma: “Is it time to buy after a 2.6% dip?”

Smartkarma’s “Market Movers” update highlights that LLY fell 2.61% to $1,075.47 with strong trading volume, but is still up over 43% year‑to‑date. ^[7]

The platform’s Smart Score gives Lilly:

• Value: 2/5
• Dividend: 3/5
• Growth: 4/5
• Resilience: 3/5
• Momentum: 5/5
• Overall: 3.4/5, indicating a “great business, rich price” profile rather than a deep value opportunity. ^[8]

JPMorgan is cited as raising its price target to $1,150, and Smartkarma emphasizes that most of the weakness looks like profit‑taking after an extended run, rather than a thesis‑breaking headline.

2. TipRanks: “LLY stock rose 30.77% in November”

TipRanks reports that Eli Lilly shares gained 30.77% in November, making LLY one of the top performers in the S&P 500 this month. ^[9]

Key points from the TipRanks note:

• The November rally pushed Lilly’s valuation above $1 trillion, the first time any pharma company has reached that mark. ^[10]
• Q3 2025 earnings smashed expectations, with EPS of $7.02 versus $5.69 expected and revenue driven by GLP‑1 weight‑loss franchise Mounjaro and Zepbound, whose combined sales topped $10 billion in the third quarter alone. ^[11]
• Analysts expect regulatory approval for Lilly’s oral weight‑loss pill in 2026, with many forecasting it to become a global bestseller. ^[12]

TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus: 18 Buys, 2 Holds over the last three months. However, the average price target of about $1,035 now sits modestly below the current price, implying roughly 6% downside from recent levels based on that dataset. ^[13]

3. Simply Wall St: “Huge rally but still ~15% undervalued on DCF”

Simply Wall St published a valuation deep‑dive today concluding that, despite Lilly’s huge rally, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model pegs fair value at about $1,270 per share, implying the stock is roughly 15% undervalued versus current levels. ^[14]

Their analysis highlights:

• Projected free cash flow rising from about $6.15 billion today to ~ $37.35 billion by 2029, before extrapolating further out. ^[15]
• A current P/E of 52.3x, far above the pharma industry average (~20.6x) and peer group (~16.3x).
• A proprietary “fair” P/E ratio of 44.5x, suggesting some multiple compression is likely over time even if earnings grow strongly. ^[16]

Interestingly, Simply Wall St’s own “Narratives” framework shows a bull case fair value around $1,189 (current price ~9.6% below) and a more cautious bear case fair value around $1,003 (current price ~7% above). ^[17]

4. MarketBeat: big pension trims, family office adds

Two MarketBeat articles today focus on institutional flows: ^[18]

• New York State Common Retirement Fund cut its LLY stake by 4.7% in Q2, selling about 50,000 shares and ending the period with 1,009,269 shares worth roughly $787 million, making Lilly its 13th‑largest holding.
• West Family Investments Inc. boosted its position by 193% to 4,395 shares (about $3.4 million), where Lilly now ranks as its 19th‑largest holding.

MarketBeat also reiterates:

• Q3 EPS of $7.02 and revenue of $17.6 billion, up about 54% year‑over‑year, and
• Full‑year 2025 EPS guidance of $23.00–$23.70 and a $1.50 quarterly dividend (roughly a 0.6% yield at current prices). ^[19]

High institutional ownership – estimated around 82–83% – underscores that LLY is deeply embedded in large portfolios, but today’s 13F‑based headlines show some big holders taking profits while others are still adding.

5. TS2 Tech: “Two‑day cool‑down after trillion‑dollar surge”

An in‑depth TS2 Tech explainer frames the recent weakness as a two‑day cool‑down rather than a trend shift:

• Friday’s –2.6% move followed a shortened Black Friday session where healthcare was the only S&P sector lower. TechStock²+1
• The stock’s November performance is still around +30%, with year‑to‑date gains north of 40%. TechStock²+1
• TS2 Tech highlights that Q3 revenue growth was driven by volume, not price – volume up ~62%, with average realized prices down about 10%, suggesting Lilly is prioritizing share gains and patient access over per‑unit pricing. TechStock²+1

How Eli Lilly became a trillion‑dollar pharma stock

The late‑2025 surge in Eli Lilly stock rests on a powerful fundamental story:

Monster Q3 2025 results

On October 30, Lilly reported: ^[20]

• Revenue: $17.6 billion, up about 54% year‑over‑year, beating Wall Street expectations.
• EPS: $7.02 vs consensus forecasts in the mid‑$5 range. ^[21]
• Guidance raised: Full‑year revenue outlook increased to $63.0–$63.5 billion and adjusted EPS guided to $23.00–$23.70. ^[22]

Behind those numbers is the company’s blockbuster GLP‑1 therapy tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity). In Q3 alone, tirzepatide generated $10.1 billion in sales and $24.8 billion year‑to‑date, surpassing Merck’s Keytruda as the world’s best‑selling medicine. ^[23]

Analysts now expect tirzepatide to deliver over $32 billion in 2025 sales, giving Lilly a growth engine rarely seen in large‑cap pharma. ^[24]

The trillion‑dollar milestone

On November 21, Lilly shares briefly traded around $1,051, lifting its market cap to $1 trillion and making it the first drugmaker ever to join the trillion‑dollar club. ^[25]

That milestone was driven by:

• Explosive GLP‑1 demand,
• Upward earnings revisions after Q3, and
• Growing conviction that Lilly can sustain high‑teens revenue growth for years as obesity and diabetes drugs reshape global metabolic health. ^[26]

GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs: still the core growth engine

Mounjaro and Zepbound

Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise has rapidly become the centerpiece of its investment story:

• Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) is now the world’s best‑selling medicine by revenue. ^[27]
• Q3 2025: Mounjaro generated roughly $6.5 billion and Zepbound about $3.6 billion, together representing well over half of Lilly’s total revenue. TechStock²+1

A small but widely discussed study published in Nature Medicine and covered by Reuters recently showed that tirzepatide appeared to temporarily suppress food‑craving signals in a patient with severe binge‑eating disorder, providing early insight into how GLP‑1 drugs affect the brain’s reward center. ^[28]

The effect faded after several months, and researchers stressed that the data came from a single patient, so it cannot be generalized. Still, the study adds to the narrative that GLP‑1s may eventually be used in some eating disorders – another potentially large market, although far from a near‑term revenue driver.

From injections to once‑daily pills: orforglipron

A major medium‑term catalyst is orforglipron, Lilly’s once‑daily oral GLP‑1 pill:

• CT Insider reports that in clinical trials, orforglipron taken once daily led participants on the highest dose to lose an average of 12.4% of body weight over 72 weeks. ^[29]
• Lilly plans to submit orforglipron for regulatory review for type 2 diabetes in 2026, and the drug has been selected for the FDA Commissioner’s National Priority Review Voucher pilot, potentially enabling a decision in the first half of 2026. ^[30]
• Analysts and outlets like TipRanks and TS2 Tech widely expect orforglipron to become a global bestseller if approved, thanks to its convenience and broader reach beyond injectable pens. ^[31]

Because pills are easier to distribute and use, the market assumes that an oral GLP‑1 could substantially expand the addressable obesity and diabetes population – one reason Lilly is valued more like a high‑growth platform company than a traditional pharma name.

Beyond obesity: Alzheimer’s, radiopharma and more

While GLP‑1 drugs dominate headlines, Lilly has been steadily building a broader pipeline that investors view as important for long‑term diversification.

Alzheimer’s: Kisunla (donanemab)

• In July 2025, the U.S. FDA approved an updated label for Kisunla (donanemab‑azbt), adjusting dosing recommendations in early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease to mitigate the risk of brain swelling and bleeding (ARIA). ^[32]
• Later in the month, the European Medicines Agency’s committee reversed an earlier negative opinion and recommended Kisunla for approval in certain lower‑risk patients, after initially worrying that ARIA risks outweighed benefits. ^[33]

These decisions do not yet make Kisunla a revenue pillar on the scale of tirzepatide, but they reinforce Lilly’s credibility in Alzheimer’s, particularly as rival Novo Nordisk recently reported failed Phase 3 trials of its semaglutide Alzheimer’s program, sending Novo’s shares sharply lower. ^[34]

Radiopharmaceuticals and other franchises

According to recent coverage summarised by Reuters and TS2 Tech, Lilly’s broader pipeline includes: TechStock²+1

• Radioligand therapies via the acquisition of POINT Biopharma, targeting certain cancers.
• An oral a4β7 integrin inhibitor for inflammatory bowel disease.
• Baricitinib trials exploring applications in type 1 diabetes progression.

None of these programs currently match GLP‑1s in commercial potential, but together they help underpin a multi‑pillar growth story rather than a one‑drug company.

Policy shock: GLP‑1 pricing deals with the Trump administration

A crucial – and controversial – development this month is the U.S. government’s push to cut GLP‑1 prices for Medicare and Medicaid while expanding coverage.

On November 6, 2025, the Trump administration announced “most‑favored‑nation” (MFN) pricing agreements with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Key points from the White House fact sheet and follow‑up coverage: ^[35]

• Lilly and Novo agreed to substantial discounts on drugs including Wegovy, Ozempic, Zepbound and future oral GLP‑1s for Medicare, Medicaid and the new TrumpRx program.
• For injectable GLP‑1s, negotiated prices for Medicare beneficiaries are expected to fall sharply from current list prices, with some analyses citing 60–70% headline discount rates by 2027. ^[36]
• Oral GLP‑1s, once approved, are expected to be offered at around $150 per month, dramatically improving affordability for patients versus current expectations. ^[37]
• Patients on Medicare would typically see copays capped near $50 per month for obesity indications under certain designs. ^[38]

Bank of America has described Lilly’s side of the deal as “probably a good tradeoff overall”, noting that while per‑dose prices will fall, the volume opportunity from expanded coverage could more than offset the hit to margins. ^[39]

For investors, the takeaway is nuanced:

• Positive: Millions more potential patients gain coverage, especially older Americans, supporting long‑term volume growth.
• Negative: Pricing becomes more politicized, and Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise is now deeply tied to U.S. policy decisions that can change with future administrations.

Valuation check: how expensive is LLY after the rally?

Even bullish analysts concede that Eli Lilly now trades at premium multiples:

• Simply Wall St estimates a P/E around 52x, more than double the pharma industry average (~20x). ^[40]
• TS2 Tech notes that when Lilly first crossed the trillion‑dollar mark, some datasets pegged its trailing P/E near 70x and forward P/E around the mid‑40s, before the recent pullback. TechStock²
• The average Wall Street target (~$1,035) now slightly trails the stock price, implying limited short‑term upside from current levels according to TipRanks’ sample. ^[41]

At the same time:

• Simply Wall St’s DCF fair value of ~$1,270 suggests about 15% upside if long‑term cash‑flow forecasts materialize. ^[42]
• Some research houses, including Bernstein, have reportedly pushed price targets to around $1,300, citing the potential of orforglipron and other pipeline assets as catalysts for further upside. ^[43]

The message from independent and Street research alike is broadly consistent:

Lilly is a high‑quality, high‑growth company whose stock already prices in a lot of success.

Dividend, balance sheet and institutional profile

Despite its growth‑stock valuation, Lilly still carries some classic big‑pharma features:

• The board recently declared a Q4 2025 dividend of $1.50 per share, continuing a pattern of annual dividend increases. TechStock²+1
• That equates to a yield of roughly 0.6%, making LLY a growth‑oriented stock, not an income play. ^[44]
• Debt is manageable relative to cash flow, and the company is investing heavily – more than $50 billion committed since 2020 – in new manufacturing capacity to support massive GLP‑1 demand, including facilities in Indiana, Virginia, Texas and Puerto Rico. TechStock²

High institutional ownership (over 80%) plus a growing base of long‑only funds and family offices suggests broad professional support, even as some large pensions take profits at these levels. ^[45]

Key risks investors are watching

Even fans of the stock highlight several material risks:

1. Policy and pricing risk
   • MFN pricing and Medicare negotiations could compress margins if volume fails to ramp as hoped. ^[46]
   • Future administrations or court rulings could alter the structure of TrumpRx and drug‑pricing rules.
2. Concentration risk
   • A large share of Lilly’s current valuation depends on continued GLP‑1 dominance. Any safety signal, competitive surprise from Novo Nordisk or others, or supply issues could hit growth expectations. ^[47]
3. Clinical and reputational risk
   • Long‑term safety data for chronic use of GLP‑1s in diverse populations are still being gathered.
   • High visibility around obesity and Alzheimer’s treatments invites scrutiny from regulators, payers and the public.
4. Execution risk
   • Lilly must scale manufacturing, launch orforglipron globally, manage complex pricing deals and continue advancing its pipeline – largely without major missteps – to justify current multiples. TechStock²+1
5. Valuation risk
   • With P/E ratios far above sector norms, even small disappointments in policy, competition or trial data could trigger outsized share price reactions.

Bottom line: what today’s pullback means for Eli Lilly stock

Today’s 2–3% decline in Eli Lilly stock looks, in context, like normal profit‑taking after a month in which the shares rose more than 30% and the company crossed the trillion‑dollar valuation threshold. TechStock²+1

The fundamental story remains intact:

• GLP‑1 demand is still surging, with tirzepatide now the world’s best‑selling drug. ^[48]
• An oral GLP‑1 pill, orforglipron, is moving toward potential approval in 2026. ^[49]
• The company is expanding into Alzheimer’s, radiopharmaceuticals and other growth areas. ^[50]

At the same time, valuation is demanding, and the stock is now deeply intertwined with U.S. drug‑pricing politics and expectations for flawless execution.

For readers and investors following LLY:

• Short‑term moves are likely to be volatile, driven by headlines about TrumpRx pricing, Medicare negotiations, supply updates and obesity‑drug competition.
• The longer‑term thesis hinges on whether GLP‑1 therapies truly reshape global metabolic health at the scale currently implied by Lilly’s valuation – and whether Lilly can stay at the center of that transformation.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Anyone considering Eli Lilly stock should carefully assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification needs, and consider speaking with a qualified financial professional.

References

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