ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock on November 29, 2025: Dividend Hike, Deep Job Cuts and Norway Deal Shape the Outlook

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) heads into the final weeks of 2025 with its share price hovering around the high‑$80s, leaving the stock roughly 20% below its 52‑week peak of $108.99 despite a solid rebound over the last three months. ^[1]

As of the latest close before November 29, COP trades near $88.7 per share, giving the company a market value of about $107 billion, making it the world’s largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company. ^[2]
Over the past three months, the stock is up about 10%, but it remains down around 12% year‑to‑date and roughly 18% over the last 12 months, underperforming the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). ^[3]

At the same time, ConocoPhillips has:

Delivered a third‑quarter earnings beat and raised its ordinary dividend. ^[4]
Unveiled a 20–25% global workforce reduction to cut costs. ^[5]
Signed a multi‑year maintenance contract offshore Norway starting 2027. ^[6]
Secured a gas development memorandum of understanding in Syria, expanding its gas‑focused growth pipeline. ^[7]
Seen Fitch affirm its “A” credit rating with a Stable outlook, highlighting balance‑sheet strength despite elevated capex. ^[8]

Here’s how all of this is shaping the investment narrative around ConocoPhillips stock on November 29, 2025.

Stock snapshot: price, performance and valuation

Key numbers (latest available before Nov. 29, 2025):

Share price: about $88.69
Market cap: ~$107–108 billion ^[9]
52‑week high: $108.99 (shares are down ~20% from that level) ^[10]
3‑month performance: +10.3%
Year‑to‑date: –12.2%
12‑month performance: –18.4% vs –9.2% for XOP ^[11]
Annualized ordinary dividend:$3.36 per share (quarterly $0.84), implying a yield of roughly 3.8% at current levels. ^[12]

On the technical side, COP has spent much of the autumn trading below both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, a sign that the stock remains in a longer‑term downtrend despite its recent bounce. ^[13]

Fundamental valuation metrics skew toward “cheap” compared with ConocoPhillips’ own history:

P/E ratio: ~11.8
Price‑to‑sales: ~1.9
Price‑to‑book: ~1.7

GuruFocus notes those multiples sit near the low end of COP’s historical ranges, suggesting the market is not paying a premium for current earnings or assets. ^[14]

Equity research platform Simply Wall St, using a discounted‑cash‑flow style model, estimates a “fair value” of about $113.54 per share, implying the stock trades roughly 23–24% below its modeled intrinsic value today. ^[15]

Q3 2025 earnings beat and an 8% dividend hike

The biggest fundamental driver for ConocoPhillips in November was its third‑quarter 2025 earnings release on November 6.

Adjusted EPS:$1.61 vs Wall Street consensus around $1.43.
Production: about 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up roughly 482,000 boepd year‑on‑year, helped by its Marathon Oil acquisition and strong U.S. shale output. ^[16]

Management used the beat to reset guidance:

Full‑year 2025 production guidance raised to 2.375 million boepd, slightly above the prior range.
Q4 2025 output guided to 2.30–2.34 million boepd.
2025 operating‑cost outlook lowered to around $10.6 billion, from up to $10.9 billion previously. ^[17]

The company also rolled out a preliminary 2026 plan of roughly:

$12 billion in capital spending
$10.2 billion in operating costs
Up to 2% underlying production growth, powered by Alaska’s Willow project and multiple LNG ventures along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in Qatar. ^[18]

Richer ordinary dividend and shareholder returns

ConocoPhillips increased its ordinary quarterly dividend by 8%, from $0.78 to $0.84 per share (annualized $3.36). ^[19]

At today’s share price, that ordinary dividend alone yields roughly 3.8–3.9%, not counting variable dividends and buybacks. The move fits COP’s long‑standing policy of returning at least 30% of cash from operations to shareholders. Fitch estimates the company actually returned around 45% of CFO—roughly $7 billion—through the first nine months of 2025. ^[20]

Big capex, Willow cost inflation and the long growth runway

Even as it boosts cash returns, ConocoPhillips is in the middle of an unusually heavy investment phase.

Fitch Ratings, in affirming COP’s “A” credit rating with a Stable outlook on November 25, highlighted: ^[21]

3Q25 production of ~2.2 million boepd on a consolidated basis (2.4 million including affiliates), making COP the largest independent E&P in North America.
A large, diversified upstream portfolio spanning U.S. shale (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken), Alaska, Canadian oil sands, LNG positions (Qatar, Port Arthur), and international assets in Norway, China, Malaysia and Libya.
Elevated capex to fund growth projects, notably:
- Willow in Alaska (targeting 180,000 boepd)
- Multiple LNG projects in Qatar and at Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 in Texas

A key flashpoint for investors is Willow’s cost overrun. Fitch notes ConocoPhillips’ capex estimate for Willow has risen from about $7.0–$7.5 billion to $8.5–$9.0 billion, mostly driven by local labor and equipment inflation. Roughly 50% of the project is complete, with first oil expected in early 2029. ^[22]

Despite the higher price tag, Fitch expects a major free‑cash‑flow (FCF) “inflection point” as these projects come online:

Qatar LNG and Port Arthur starting up in 2026–2027,
Willow contributing from 2029,
And project capex stepping down afterward. ^[23]

ConocoPhillips targets a corporate FCF breakeven in the low‑$30 per barrel range by the end of the decade, versus the mid‑$40s per barrel today, assuming Fitch’s base‑case WTI path of $65 in 2025, $60 in 2026–27 and $57 thereafter. ^[24]

Deep workforce cuts under the “Competitive Edge” program

The bullish growth story is being paired with one of the largest layoff programs in the energy sector this year.

On September 3, ConocoPhillips announced plans to cut 20–25% of its global workforce, or roughly 2,600–3,250 jobs out of about 13,000 employees. The restructuring—internally dubbed “Competitive Edge” and advised by Boston Consulting Group—is meant to address rising unit costs and sharpen competitiveness. ^[25]

Key points from the layoff push:

Most cuts are expected to be completed before the end of 2025.
Reuters has reported follow‑up memos confirming layoffs in Canada and warnings of job losses in Alaska, underscoring the program’s global reach. ^[26]
The announcement knocked COP shares about 4% lower on the day and came amid a broader wave of reductions across the oil and gas industry as crude prices softened. ^[27]

Fitch estimates ConocoPhillips has already realized around 75% of a targeted $1 billion in synergies from its Marathon Oil acquisition and related efficiency measures, with the new layoffs expected to unlock additional cost and margin improvements. ^[28]

For investors, the program is a double‑edged sword: it should lower structural costs and support that low‑$30 FCF breakeven target, but it also introduces execution risk and potential operational disruption in key regions like Alaska.

Norway maintenance deal and gas‑heavy growth pipeline

While job cuts grab headlines, ConocoPhillips continues to extend the life of core assets and expand its gas footprint.

A “substantial” Norway maintenance & modification contract

On November 29, Aker Solutions announced a new six‑year frame agreement with ConocoPhillips Skandinavia for brownfield maintenance and modification services on the Eldfisk and Ekofisk fields offshore Norway. ^[29]

The contract starts in January 2027, with options for two additional three‑year extensions.
Aker classifies it as “substantial,” meaning between NOK 2.5–4.0 billion (roughly $230–$370 million), depending on activity levels. ^[30]

The agreement underscores ConocoPhillips’ commitment to its North Sea legacy fields and adds multi‑year visibility for maintenance capital in the region.

Syria gas memorandum of understanding

Earlier in November, ConocoPhillips and partner Novatera signed a memorandum of understanding with the Syrian Petroleum Company to explore expanding natural gas production and infrastructure in Syria. ^[31]

Details remain limited, and geopolitical and sanctions risks are substantial, but the MoU fits COP’s broader strategy of leaning into natural gas and LNG as a “transition fuel”, a theme also emphasized in independent valuation narratives. ^[32]

Combined with its Qatar and U.S. Gulf Coast projects, these moves reinforce a gas‑heavy growth pipeline extending well into the next decade.

Portfolio optimization: Anadarko sale and asset recycling

In August, ConocoPhillips agreed to sell its Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion to Flywheel Energy, an Oklahoma‑based producer. The sale is part of a post‑Marathon Oil portfolio cleanup that prioritizes higher‑margin basins. ^[33]

Key takeaways from the deal: ^[34]

The transaction pushes COP past its previous $2 billion asset‑sale target ahead of schedule.
Management has raised its asset‑sale goal to $5 billion by 2026, aiming for roughly $1 billion in incremental cost and margin gains.
The company expects more than $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, helped by disposals and growth projects.
Q2 2025 production reached 2.39 million boepd, up 446,000 boepd year‑on‑year, with Q3 output guided to 2.33–2.37 million boepd at that time.

This portfolio rotation complements the internal cost cutting: COP is simultaneously cutting overhead, simplifying its asset base and plowing capital into a smaller set of large, long‑life projects.

Balance sheet strength and Fitch’s “A” rating

Despite heavy capex and robust shareholder distributions, ConocoPhillips’ balance sheet remains a key support for the equity story.

In its November 25 report, Fitch: ^[35]

Affirmed COP’s Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating at “A” and Short‑Term IDR at “F1+”, with a Stable outlook.
Highlighted leverage of just 0.9x (debt / EBITDA) and EBITDA interest coverage of about 30x as of Q3 2025.
Noted free cash flow after dividends of roughly $3.1 billion over the last twelve months.
Pointed to total liquidity of about $11.7 billion, including $5.26 billion of cash and equivalents and a fully undrawn $5.5 billion revolving credit facility maturing in 2030.

The rating agency’s base case assumes COP continues to favor shareholder distributions over rapid debt reduction, returning a “majority of free cash flow” to investors while keeping leverage comfortably within its “A” category thresholds.

What big money is doing with COP right now

November 29 filings and commentary show heavy institutional ownership and active reshuffling of positions.

Recent 13F‑based updates compiled by MarketBeat include: ^[36]

Level Four Advisory Services LLC
- Boosted its COP stake by 42.3% in Q2, buying 34,828 shares to reach 117,190 shares worth about $10.5 million.
Vinva Investment Management Ltd
- Increased holdings by 30.4%, adding 20,803 shares for a total of 89,183 shares valued around $8.0 million.
GM Advisory Group LLC
- Raised its position by 144% to 6,050 shares (about $543,000).
Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. LLC (GMO)
- Grew its stake by 30.7% to 397,791 shares, worth roughly $35.7 million.
State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
- Trimmed its stake by a modest 0.5%, selling 6,562 shares but still holding 1,308,767 shares, around 0.10% of the company, valued at about $117.4 million.
Korea Investment CORP
- Cut its holdings by 35.6%, selling 340,096 shares and ending Q2 with 614,961 shares worth about $55.2 million.

Across these filings, MarketBeat estimates that institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own about 82.36% of ConocoPhillips’ outstanding stock, underscoring COP’s status as a heavily institutionally‑held, large‑cap energy name. ^[37]

There has also been insider buying: director William H. McRaven reportedly purchased 5,768 shares, spending around $500,000 at an average price near $86.68, a signal of internal confidence that frequently gets attention from sentiment watchers. ^[38]

How Wall Street values ConocoPhillips today

Analyst sentiment toward COP remains broadly positive, though there are nuanced differences between rating agencies and research shops.

Barchart reports a “Strong Buy” consensus from 27 analysts, with a mean price target of $112.88, about 30% above the current share price. ^[39]
MarketBeat’s compilation shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target closer to $115–116 per share, incorporating a mix of Buy and Overweight ratings. ^[40]

Individual calls have moved recently:

Wolfe Research reaffirmed its Outperform rating on November 6 and nudged its price target up to $131 (from $130), arguing that the 8% dividend increase could help the market re‑rate COP as “more major than E&P” given its scale and project pipeline. ^[41]
UBS, by contrast, cut its target from $122 to $117, citing the higher cost estimate for Willow while maintaining a positive stance on the stock. ^[42]

On the quantitative side:

Simply Wall St’s narrative‑driven model still sees COP as around 23.7% undervalued, with a fair‑value estimate of $113.54 per share, heavily premised on long‑term LNG and Willow contributions through 2029. ^[43]
GuruFocus’ metrics show COP trading at P/E ~11.8, P/S ~1.9 and P/B ~1.7, figures it describes as being near historic lows and potentially pointing to valuation upside if earnings hold up. ^[44]
A separate summary of analyst fair‑value estimates suggests those targets have edged slightly lower in recent days (for example, one aggregated estimate slipped from about $113.54 to $112.91), but they still sit well above the current market price. ^[45]

Taken together, Wall Street largely sees upside potential in COP, but that upside is conditional on successful execution of its cost‑cutting, project pipeline and capital‑allocation strategy in a volatile commodity environment.

Oil market backdrop: oversupply fears vs CEO’s view

ConocoPhillips’ share price is heavily tethered to oil and gas prices. In recent weeks:

On November 21, COP fell more than 1% as WTI crude slid over 2% to a four‑week low, a move Barchart notes as part of a broader energy selloff. ^[46]
For Q3, Reuters highlighted that Brent crude prices were about 13% lower than a year earlier, even as COP offset part of the impact through higher volumes and lower costs. ^[47]

Fitch’s base case for COP uses WTI assumptions of $65 in 2025, $60 in 2026–27 and $57 from 2028 onward, which it describes as mid‑cycle rather than bullish. ^[48]

At the same time, some strategists warn of a possible oil glut in 2026 as OPEC+ supply, U.S. shale output and softer global demand collide—one reason why energy stocks, including COP, have struggled to hold rallies this year. ^[49]

ConocoPhillips’ CEO Ryan Lance has taken a more sanguine tone. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, he dismissed fears of a global oil oversupply, pointing to relatively stable inventories at hubs like the U.S. Gulf Coast and Cushing. According to a summary from GuruFocus, he argued that if WTI stays roughly in the $60–$65 per barrel range, U.S. production growth is likely to remain measured. The same report highlights COP’s solid margins, manageable leverage and meaningful institutional ownership as supports for the equity case. ^[50]

In short, COP’s outlook is tightly linked to whether the market ultimately experiences a mild mid‑cycle environment (close to Fitch’s assumptions) or something closer to a deep 2026 oversupply, which would challenge the company’s ambitious shareholder‑return and capex plans.

Key risks and what to watch next

For investors and traders following ConocoPhillips stock, a few themes are likely to drive sentiment into 2026:

Commodity prices: COP’s earnings and cash flow remain highly sensitive to WTI and Henry Hub price swings. A sustained drop below Fitch’s base‑case bands would pressure both growth spending and shareholder returns. ^[51]
Execution on mega‑projects:
- Containing further cost inflation at Willow in Alaska.
- Delivering Qatar and Port Arthur LNG projects on time and on budget. ^[52]
Layoff program impacts: The 20–25% workforce reduction should lower structural costs but could also affect operations, safety culture and project execution if not carefully managed. ^[53]
Asset sales and portfolio mix: Successfully hitting the $5 billion asset‑sale target by 2026 and reinvesting into higher‑margin assets will be key to achieving the promised $7+ billion incremental FCF by 2029. ^[54]
Regulatory and geopolitical risk: Projects in Norway, Syria, Qatar and Alaska all carry distinct political, environmental and regulatory uncertainties—from Arctic permitting to Middle‑East sanctions and European climate policy. ^[55]

Investors will be watching the next earnings call and 2026 capital‑allocation update closely for further detail on Willow costs, LNG milestones, layoff progress and how much cash COP plans to return versus retain.

Is ConocoPhillips (COP) stock a buy now?

From a pure information standpoint, here’s the picture as of November 29, 2025:

The stock trades well below analyst targets and some intrinsic‑value estimates, with consensus price objectives in the $112–$131 range and DCF‑style models around $113+ per share. ^[56]
ConocoPhillips offers a near‑4% ordinary dividend yield, aggressive buybacks and an “A” credit rating, supported by low leverage and strong liquidity. ^[57]
The company is simultaneously ramping multi‑billion‑dollar projects, cutting up to a quarter of its workforce and selling non‑core assets, all in a commodity market where 2026 supply‑demand balances are still hotly debated. ^[58]

Whether COP is appropriate for you depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon and view on long‑term oil and gas demand. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities. If you’re considering an investment decision, it’s important to evaluate your own situation or speak with a qualified financial adviser.

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