Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) enters the final days of November 2025 looking like both the hero and the villain of the AI trade: a record‑breaking earnings machine, yet suddenly the target of bubble fears, Google-fueled competition and even Enron memes.
Below is a deep dive into where Nvidia stock stands as of November 30, 2025, what actually happened this month, and what the latest news means for investors following NVDA.
Nvidia stock today: price, market cap and November performance
US markets are closed on Sunday, November 30, 2025, so the latest full trading data comes from Friday, November 28:
- Last close: about $177.00 per share [1]
- Intraday range on Nov. 28: roughly $176.44–$181.00
- Market cap: around $4.3–4.4 trillion, keeping Nvidia among the most valuable (and by some measures the most valuable) company on Earth. [2]
Despite the bruises, Nvidia is still up roughly 30% year to date in 2025, down from a peak gain of about 54% earlier in the year. [3]
The November picture is less flattering:
- Before earnings, Nvidia shares were down about 8% for the month, despite a 1,200% gain over the prior three years. [4]
- After further selling on Google‑TPU headlines, the total November drawdown has been described in recent coverage as roughly 11–13%. [5]
So as of November 30, 2025, Nvidia stock is:
- Far off its $5 trillion market‑cap highs reached in October. [6]
- Still huge, still dominant, but suddenly mortal again in investors’ eyes.
Blowout Q3 FY26 earnings: AI demand still “off the charts”
Underneath the scary stock chart, Nvidia’s latest numbers are almost cartoonishly large.
For Q3 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended October 26, 2025), Nvidia reported: [7]
- Revenue: $57.0 billion, up 22% quarter‑over‑quarter and 62% year‑over‑year.
- Data center revenue: $51.2 billion, up 25% sequentially and 66% year‑over‑year – roughly 90% of total sales.
- Diluted EPS (non‑GAAP): $1.30, beating analyst expectations around $1.26.
- Gross margin: mid‑70% range, with management guiding to around 75% for Q4.
For Q4 FY26, Nvidia guided to:
- Revenue of about $65 billion (±2%), well ahead of prior Street estimates near $62 billion. [8]
On the earnings call and in follow‑up coverage, CFO Colette Kress and CEO Jensen Huang repeated a headline figure that has become central to the bull case:
- Nvidia sees “half a trillion” (around $500 billion) in AI chip orders across 2025–2026 for its Blackwell and Rubin architectures. [9]
The data center story is simple but extreme: hyperscalers, AI labs and sovereign AI projects are still throwing staggering capital at Nvidia’s GPUs and networking gear. The company’s own guidance effectively says: this party is not over yet.
So why did Nvidia stock tank in November?
When a company prints $57 billion in quarterly revenue and still sells off, you know the market’s mood is… complicated.
A few overlapping themes hit NVDA this month:
- “AI bubble” worries.
Nvidia had become the poster child for the entire AI trade. When broader investors began questioning whether AI capex is running “ahead of ROI,” Nvidia’s shares took the brunt of that anxiety. Reuters noted that despite the blow‑out quarter and upbeat guidance, investors were nervous about an “AI bubble,” and Nvidia’s Q4 outlook was being treated as a reality check on whether AI spending is justified. [10] - Concentration risk.
About 61% of Nvidia’s revenue now comes from just four major customers, according to Reuters, highlighting how dependent the company is on hyperscalers and a few mega‑buyers. [11] - Valuation vertigo.
Nvidia briefly crossed $5 trillion in market cap in late October — larger than most national stock markets. [12]
Even bullish commentators concede that when a chip maker trades at multi‑trillion valuations with triple‑digit percentage gains over a few years, any hint of slowing or competition sparks outsized reactions.
Put bluntly: the fundamentals screamed “hyper‑growth,” while the price started to scream “gravity exists.”
Google’s TPUs and the Meta question: Nvidia’s moat gets tested
If you want a single headline that spooked Nvidia investors this month, it’s this: Meta is reportedly preparing to spend billions of dollars on Google’s AI chips instead of just Nvidia’s.
A report from The Information (summarized by Reuters and others) said: [13]
- Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs) starting in 2027, and may rent TPUs through Google Cloud as early as 2026.
- The potential deal could shift up to 10% of Nvidia’s annual revenue toward Google over time.
- The news sent Nvidia shares down about 3–4% on the day, while Alphabet and Broadcom (which helps Google manufacture its AI chips) rallied.
At the same time:
- Barron’s and other outlets highlighted how Google’s latest TPUs, coupled with its Gemini AI models, are finally being seen as a serious rival to Nvidia’s GPUs in some workloads. [14]
- Commentators noted that TPUs can be more efficient for certain inference and search‑like tasks, while Nvidia still leans on its CUDA software ecosystem and general‑purpose flexibility.
The takeaway isn’t “Google killed Nvidia.” It’s subtler:
- Nvidia’s “only game in town” aura is cracking, at least in the market narrative.
- Big cloud players want leverage. Even if they remain huge Nvidia customers, striking deals with Google or building in‑house chips gives them bargaining power.
The stock reaction makes sense: when one of your biggest customers is rumored to be shifting even a slice of spend to a rival, the market doesn’t wait to see the fine print.
The “We’re Not Enron” memo and accounting jitters
Just in case “AI bubble” and “Google’s back” weren’t enough drama, late November delivered one of the stranger optics moments in mega‑cap history:
Nvidia sent a seven‑page private memo to Wall Street analysts titled, in effect, “We’re not Enron.”
According to detailed reporting from Technobezz and other outlets, the memo was prompted by: [15]
- A viral Substack post that speculated Nvidia might be cooking its books.
- Social‑media chatter and posts referencing Michael Burry’s critique of Nvidia’s stock‑based compensation and buybacks.
The Technobezz article (dated November 30, 2025) lays out the key points:
- The memo explicitly argues that Nvidia’s business is economically sound, with complete and transparent reporting, and that its customers generally pay within about 53 days, far from the extreme payment terms associated with Enron‑style schemes.
- It acknowledges investor concerns around accounts receivable, which have reportedly swelled to about $33.4 billion, and the idea of “circular financing” — customers borrowing against Nvidia hardware to buy more Nvidia hardware. [16]
- The article stresses that while these optics invite comparison to past accounting blow‑ups, Nvidia’s underlying demand — from cloud giants, AI labs, and government “sovereign AI” projects — appears very real and verifiable.
In other words:
- No credible outlet has presented hard evidence of fraud.
- The memo is less a confession and more a sign of how paranoid the market has become around anything that looks like “too much growth.”
But the episode does highlight legitimate risk factors:
- Huge receivables tied to a small set of leveraged customers.
- Aggressive capex cycles that may depend on cheap financing and bullish AI narratives.
- And sheer market concentration: Nvidia is now such a large piece of major indexes that any stumble could ripple across portfolios worldwide. [17]
Wall Street still loves Nvidia: price targets and ratings
Despite the pullback and the memes, analyst sentiment is still overwhelmingly positive.
A recent breakdown of 63 analyst ratings, cited by Nasdaq/Motley Fool, shows: [18]
- 10 rate NVDA a “strong buy”.
- 48 rate it a “buy”.
- Only 5 are in the hold/sell camp.
The average 12‑month price target is nearly $250 per share, versus a current price around $177 — implying roughly 40% upside if the consensus is right.
Other notable calls:
- A recent note from Bernstein slapped a $272 price target on Nvidia, calling it a “Strong Buy” and implying about 50% upside after the November pullback. [19]
- Some valuation models (like GuruFocus and others) peg a “fair value” in the mid‑$230s based on projected cash flows and growth. [20]
Even more interesting: Nvidia’s forward P/E around 24x isn’t dramatically higher than other big tech names like Apple and Microsoft, despite far faster expected revenue growth. [21]
So the Street’s stance, boiled down, is something like: “Yes, it’s gigantic. No, we still don’t think it’s overpriced if the AI thesis holds.”
Big “if,” of course.
Forecasts, models and the reality check of November 30
One of the more meta storylines this month: AI trying to predict Nvidia, the AI king.
A widely shared Finbold piece asked an AI model to forecast Nvidia’s price for today, November 30, 2025. The model (ChatGPT in that article) projected: [22]
- A target around $214 by the end of November.
- A trading range of roughly $206–$222 supported by “strong institutional accumulation” and demand for Blackwell GPUs.
Reality check:
- NVDA is currently closer to $177, not $214. [23]
Meanwhile, quantitative forecast sites like CoinCodex have short‑term models that see NVDA drifting modestly higher into early December, with targets in the high‑$170s and low‑$180s — far less dramatic than the earlier “> $200 by month‑end” projections. [24]
Moral of the story: price‑target models (human or machine) are guesses, not guarantees. Nvidia’s November proves how quickly sentiment can overpower spreadsheets.
The ultra‑bull case: could Nvidia really hit a $20 trillion market cap?
On the other end of the spectrum from AI models missing a one‑month target, you have long‑horizon bull theses that sound absurd… until Nvidia’s recent history makes them at least debatable.
In a detailed piece originally from I/O Fund and republished on Medium, tech analyst Beth Kindig lays out a scenario where Nvidia reaches a $20 trillion market cap by 2030. [25]
Key assumptions in that thesis:
- Nvidia’s data center segment grows at roughly 36% compound annual growth through 2030.
- The data center business alone reaches a run‑rate in the mid‑$900 billion range, supported by AI accelerator demand and attached networking/software revenue.
- Nvidia maintains something close to its historical valuation multiples (around 25x forward sales at the high end) thanks to a moat built on:
- A one‑year GPU product cadence (Blackwell → Rubin → Feynman).
- The entrenched CUDA software ecosystem.
- Its evolution into a full‑stack AI systems company, not “just a chip maker.”
The same analysis cites:
- Management’s “$500 billion” visibility into Blackwell and Rubin sales through 2026.
- Rapidly rising AI capex forecasts, with big‑tech AI spending potentially heading well north of $400 billion per year and overall AI infrastructure investment running into the trillions by 2030. [26]
Is $20 trillion guaranteed? Absolutely not. But it’s a useful reminder that:
- A stock that once seemed pricey at a $110 billion valuation has, in a few short years, made multi‑trillion scenarios look… less impossible.
Key risks Nvidia investors should still care about
Strip away the noise and memes, and several real risk vectors remain front‑and‑center after November 2025:
- Competition from Google, AMD and custom silicon
- Customer and market concentration
- Four major customers accounting for over 60% of revenue is fantastic when everyone is buying, but brutal if any of them cut orders or diversify away. [29]
- Regulatory and geopolitical risk
- US export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China have already forced Nvidia to walk away from sizable orders and to explicitly assume zero data‑center compute revenue from China in Q4 guidance. [30]
- Political pressure to keep cutting‑edge GPUs out of rival nations remains high and could tighten further.
- Accounting and financing concerns (even if fraud is unlikely)
- A rapidly growing accounts‑receivable balance and the possibility of customers financing purchases with Nvidia‑backed collateral raise questions about how sustainable the capex boom is if credit conditions change. [31]
- Macro and AI‑ROI risk
- Multiple analyses note that many enterprises have yet to see clear returns on big AI projects, even as spending soars. If CFOs decide the payoff isn’t materializing, AI capex growth could slow sharply. [32]
In short: Nvidia’s near‑term fundamentals are spectacular, but they’re riding on a macro‑level AI bet that could be more cyclical than the current narrative admits.
Bottom line: Nvidia on November 30, 2025
As of November 30, 2025, Nvidia stock sits in an unusual place:
- Fundamentals: record revenue, towering data‑center growth, and a half‑trillion‑dollar AI order book.
- Stock price: roughly $177, up big for the year but well off recent highs, after a choppy November. [33]
- Narrative: caught between “AI bubble” skepticism, serious emerging competition from Google’s TPUs, and ultra‑bullish forecasts that imagine a $20 trillion Nvidia dominating AI infrastructure for a decade.
For investors, that means:
- Nvidia remains the central bellwether for the AI trade.
- Volatility is not a bug; it’s a feature of being at the center of a technological gold rush.
- Any NVDA decision — buy, hold, trim, avoid — is ultimately a bet on how fast AI spending grows, how durable Nvidia’s moat really is, and how long the company can keep out‑executing both rivals and expectations.
References
1. www.wallstreetzen.com, 2. companiesmarketcap.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.technobezz.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 8. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 9. www.businessinsider.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.technobezz.com, 16. www.technobezz.com, 17. www.technobezz.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. coincentral.com, 20. www.gurufocus.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. finbold.com, 23. www.wallstreetzen.com, 24. coincodex.com, 25. beth-kindig.medium.com, 26. beth-kindig.medium.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.tomshardware.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.businessinsider.com, 31. www.technobezz.com, 32. www.technobezz.com, 33. www.wallstreetzen.com
