Strategy Inc Stock (MSTR): Bitcoin Proxy Under Pressure as Index Risks, Rising Yields and Big Buyers Collide

Published: November 30, 2025

Strategy Inc — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and now positioned as the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury company — is back at the center of market debate. As of Friday’s close on November 28, 2025, Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) traded around $177 per share, with an intraday range near $175–$187 and a market capitalization of roughly $51 billion. ^[1]

Yet the headline number hardly tells the story. The stock is down around 40% year to date and roughly 54% over the past 12 months, even as Bitcoin itself has spent much of 2025 near record highs. ^[2] At the same time, Strategy’s underlying Bitcoin hoard has grown to roughly 640,000–650,000 BTC, more than 3% of all coins that will ever exist, making MSTR arguably the purest listed proxy on Bitcoin anywhere in public markets. ^[3]

On November 30, investors waking up to the latest headlines on Strategy stock are trying to reconcile a strange mix of signals: record earnings tied to Bitcoin, rising preferred stock yields, index-removal risk, a shareholder lawsuit, and fresh institutional buying all at once. Here’s how the latest news fits together.

A Bitcoin Treasury Company First, Software Company Second

Strategy’s rebrand from MicroStrategy earlier in 2025 wasn’t cosmetic. The company now explicitly describes itself as a “Bitcoin Treasury Company” that also sells AI-powered enterprise analytics software. ^[4]

In its Q3 2025 earnings release, Strategy reported:

Total revenue of about $128.7 million, up roughly 11% year-on-year.
Subscription services revenue jumping more than 65% year-on-year, as the cloud analytics business continues to shift to recurring SaaS income.
Gross margin holding around 70%, showing the core software business is still high-margin even if it’s no longer the main driver of the stock. ^[5]

The big headline, however, came from accounting changes. With full adoption of fair‑value accounting for digital assets (ASU 2023‑08), Strategy recognized about $3.9 billion in unrealized Bitcoin gains, driving net income to roughly $2.8 billion in the quarter and diluted EPS to around $8.42. ^[6]

As of late October, the company reported approximately 640,808 BTC with an estimated cost basis of $47.4 billion and fair value of roughly $71 billion, implying a meaningful embedded gain on its BTC position even after the recent crypto pullback. ^[7]

In other words: the income statement now moves largely with Bitcoin’s price, while the software business provides a stable but comparatively small foundation beneath the BTC bet.

Market Performance: Deep Drawdown in a High-Volatility Year

Despite blockbuster headline earnings, MSTR shares have suffered a brutal derating:

1‑month performance: down nearly 38%
6‑month performance: down roughly 52%
1‑year performance: down nearly 54%

These figures come from TradingView’s performance snapshot as of November 28. ^[8] TipRanks cites a similar year‑to‑date decline of about 40%, underscoring that the drawdown isn’t just a short‑term wobble. ^[9]

Zacks notes that Strategy’s share price now trades at roughly 0.97x book value, a stark contrast to the hefty premium the stock commanded for most of its “Bitcoin proxy” history. ^[10]

At the same time, Strategy’s market‑to‑Bitcoin net‑asset‑value multiple (mNAV) — essentially how much investors are paying for each dollar of BTC on its balance sheet — has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since the company began buying Bitcoin in 2020. A detailed analysis from DL News puts basic mNAV around 0.88, meaning investors are currently paying less than a dollar in equity value for each dollar of Bitcoin the company holds. ^[11]

That single metric captures why MSTR is suddenly at the center of so many headlines: the market is, at least for now, valuing the company at a discount to its Bitcoin rather than the rich leverage premium that defined the story for years.

Why the Stock Is Under Pressure: MSCI Risk, Bitcoin Pullback, and Funding Costs

1. Potential MSCI Index Removal

One of the most important near‑term overhangs is the risk that Strategy may be removed from MSCI equity indices. JPMorgan has warned that an exclusion could force index‑tracking funds to sell, potentially triggering billions of dollars of outflows from MSTR. ^[12]

TipRanks’ recent breakdown of the sell‑off explicitly lists MSCI index risk alongside falling Bitcoin prices as the two major drivers of the latest leg lower in MSTR. ^[13]

For a stock that has become popular with ETFs, quant funds and crypto‑adjacent thematic products, forced selling can matter as much as fundamentals in the short run.

2. Bitcoin Correction and “Hedge Stock” Dynamics

In November, Bitcoin has been consolidating below its recent highs, with prices hovering in the low‑$90,000s, according to several crypto‑market trackers. ^[14]

CoinDesk reported that Strategy’s share price has dropped roughly 43% over the past month as institutional investors increasingly use MSTR as a “pressure valve” to hedge crypto exposure. Shorting a liquid, option‑rich stock is simply easier than hedging large BTC positions directly in relatively shallow derivatives markets. ^[15]

That dynamic creates a feedback loop:

Bitcoin drops →
Investors short MSTR as a hedge →
MSTR falls more than Bitcoin →
mNAV compresses below 1.0 →
Headlines amplify the “broken premium” story.

From a narrative standpoint, Strategy has shifted — at least temporarily — from leveraged BTC bet to pseudo‑hedge for crypto longs, which is not a flattering role if you own the stock.

3. Rising Preferred Stock Yields and Funding Costs

Strategy’s capital‑markets strategy has been extraordinarily aggressive in 2025. Between common‑stock at‑the‑market (ATM) programs and multiple tranches of perpetual preferred stock, the company has raised nearly $20 billion this year, including roughly $5.1 billion in Q3 alone. ^[16]

On November 7, RTT News reported that Strategy priced an IPO of 7.75 million shares of its 10% Series A Perpetual “STRE” preferred stock at €80 per share, with an effective 10% coupon on a €100 stated value, raising around €609 million to fund additional Bitcoin purchases and general corporate purposes. ^[17]

At the same time, a widely cited Investors.com piece highlighted that the dividend rate on Strategy’s variable‑rate STRC preferred shares has been stepping up from 9% to above 10.5%, and could reach the 10.75–11% range under the company’s rules‑based framework, depending on STRC’s trading price. ^[18]

Put bluntly:

Strategy has more flexibility than ever to raise capital.
But that capital is getting more expensive, and it is being used primarily to buy more Bitcoin, amplifying both upside and downside.

CEO and Management: “More Flexibility Than Ever” to Keep Buying Bitcoin

In a November 29 interview highlighted by CoinDesk, Strategy CEO Phong Le argued that the company now has “more flexibility than ever” to continue accumulating Bitcoin. He emphasized:

A balance sheet built around long‑dated convertible debt,
Multiple perpetual preferred stock programs, and
At‑the‑market equity issuance that can be dialed up or down depending on market conditions. ^[19]

Le stressed that the first major debt maturity doesn’t hit until late 2025 and 2026, which he believes gives Strategy room to ride out volatility without facing immediate refinancing pressure. He also reiterated that the company intends to keep channeling cash from its software business — plus capital‑markets proceeds — into additional BTC over time. ^[20]

This messaging is internally consistent with the company’s own FY 2025 guidance, which assumes a year‑end Bitcoin price of $150,000 and points to potential operating income of around $34 billion, net income of about $24 billion and EPS of roughly $80 under that scenario. ^[21]

Those projections are explicitly conditional on Bitcoin’s price and come with large caveats, but they illustrate how leveraged the business model has become to BTC.

Lawsuit and Legal Overhang: Shareholder Claims Around Bitcoin Strategy Disclosures

On October 2, shareholder‑rights firm Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. announced that it is continuing an investigation into Strategy on behalf of long‑term stockholders, following a class‑action complaint filed earlier in 2025. ^[22]

According to the firm’s summary, the complaint alleges that Strategy and certain executives:

Overstated the anticipated profitability of its Bitcoin‑focused investment and treasury strategy.
Understated the risks tied to Bitcoin’s volatility and the potential magnitude of losses under fair‑value accounting rules (ASU 2023‑08).
Made public statements that were therefore materially misleading during the alleged class period (April 30, 2024 to April 4, 2025). ^[23]

These claims have not been adjudicated, and the company has not admitted wrongdoing. But the investigation adds another variable to the risk profile that investors need to watch alongside macro and crypto factors.

Institutional Flows: Big Money Still Buying the Dip

Despite the volatility, institutional investors remain deeply involved in the name. MarketBeat data shows that roughly 60% of MSTR’s float is held by hedge funds and other institutional investors. ^[24]

In filings summarized over the weekend of November 29–30:

Williamson Legacy Group LLC disclosed a new position of 2,744 MSTR shares, valued at about $1.1 million based on its latest 13F filing. ^[25]
Independent Family Office LLC increased its stake by more than 300% in Q2 to roughly 4,100 shares, worth about $1.66 million at the time of reporting. ^[26]
Earlier reports highlighted that Norges Bank, Legal & General, Charles Schwab Investment Management, Swiss National Bank and Harvest Portfolios Group collectively expanded their holdings in Strategy during the second quarter, with several positions in the hundreds of millions of dollars. ^[27]

On the insider side, filings show a mix of selling by executives and buying by directors: EVP Wei‑Ming Shao has sold shares at higher prices, while director Jarrod M. Patten added to his stake at substantially lower levels, reflecting divergent individual views but a still‑engaged insider base. ^[28]

Analyst Opinions: From “Very Cheap” to “High‑Risk Leverage”

Wall Street’s view of MSTR is anything but unanimous — but overall, it leans positive on a long‑term horizon:

MarketBeat’s aggregation shows one “Strong Buy,” thirteen “Buy” and four “Hold” ratings, with an average target price around $485–$490 per share, implying well over 100% upside from current levels. ^[29]
Zacks currently rates the stock a “Hold” but emphasizes that Strategy’s massive BTC holdings could lift long‑term prospects if Bitcoin continues to gain traction, even as near‑term volatility and competition from Bitcoin ETFs weigh on sentiment. ^[30]
Insider Monkey and other outlets have described MSTR as both one of the “cheapest” high‑beta Bitcoin proxies and one of the more controversial given its reliance on financial engineering. ^[31]

In short: the bull case is that the market is now valuing Strategy below the Bitcoin it owns while ignoring the optionality in the software franchise and capital‑markets machine. The bear case is that the discount simply reflects:

Elevated funding costs,
Index‑removal risk,
Possible legal liabilities, and
A business model that only works if Bitcoin keeps climbing over the long run.

Both sides can point to real data.

The mNAV Discount: Why Is Strategy Worth Less Than Its Bitcoin?

The DL News piece that went viral this week crystallized the debate: Strategy’s mNAV slipped to about 0.88, meaning the company was valued at roughly 88 cents for every dollar of Bitcoin it holds, based on one widely watched metric. ^[32]

Several analysts quoted in that report argued that:

The discount likely reflects lower expectations for future BTC performance, not necessarily a structural flaw in Strategy’s business.
Historically, Strategy traded at 2–4x mNAV, with peaks near 1.8x earlier this year, as investors paid a premium for leveraged BTC exposure and the company’s ability to raise capital cheaply.
As Bitcoin futures curves flattened and ETF alternatives proliferated, that premium compressed, eventually turning into a discount. ^[33]

From a fundamental perspective, a sustained discount raises tricky questions:

If the stock trades below BTC value, why own the proxy rather than BTC itself or an ETF?
If the discount persists, can Strategy still issue equity at attractive terms to buy more Bitcoin?

The company’s own guidance explicitly acknowledges that its earnings are now extremely sensitive to BTC price moves, and actual results could differ materially if year‑end Bitcoin prices diverge from internal assumptions. ^[34]

Short Sellers and the End of a Famous Trade

Another headline making the rounds this week: legendary short seller Jim Chanos has reportedly closed his hedged trade against Strategy. Chanos had been publicly skeptical of Bitcoin treasury companies, comparing their valuation boom to the SPAC mania of 2021 and arguing that premiums over underlying assets were unsustainable. ^[35]

According to reporting from Yahoo Finance and DL News, Chanos began unwinding his position in early November as mNAV compressed toward, and ultimately below, 1.0. ^[36]

The exit of a prominent short doesn’t automatically mean the bottom is in, but it removes one highly visible bear from the narrative at the exact moment when the stock has already suffered a sharp decline.

Index Drama: S&P 500 Snub and “What If” Scenarios

Earlier in November, Strategy also made headlines indirectly when a MarketWatch story noted that a booming tech stock was joining the S&P 500 — and it wasn’t Strategy. The slot ultimately went to another company, dashing the hopes of investors who had speculated that MSTR’s inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 and its large market cap might naturally lead to S&P 500 membership. ^[37]

Combine that disappointment with the MSCI removal risk on the other side, and you get a strange setup:

The upside scenario: Strategy holds or gains index memberships, triggering passive inflows during a future Bitcoin upcycle.
The downside scenario: one or more index providers eject MSTR, forcing large funds to sell into already weak price action. ^[38]

Investors watching Strategy today are effectively trading not just the Bitcoin price, but also the politics and rules of index construction.

What to Watch Next for Strategy Stock

Looking ahead from November 30, 2025, the key signposts for anyone following MSTR are:

Bitcoin Price Trajectory
The single biggest driver remains BTC itself. A renewed rally could quickly lift Strategy’s earnings, reduce the mNAV discount and trigger short covering; a deeper crypto drawdown would amplify both earnings volatility and balance‑sheet risk. ^[39]
MSCI Decision and Index Memberships
Any official announcement from MSCI about adding, removing or re‑weighting Strategy will likely be a major catalyst. Analysts have floated potential forced‑selling estimates in the multi‑billion‑dollar range if the stock is indeed removed from key indices. ^[40]
Capital‑Markets Activity and Preferred Yields
Watch the pricing and uptake of new preferred stock offerings (like STRE) and the dividend rates on STRC. Rising required yields signal market skepticism; stable or falling yields would suggest investors remain comfortable funding Strategy’s Bitcoin expansion. ^[41]
Legal Developments in the Shareholder Case
Any motions, settlements or court rulings in the Bragar Eagel & Squire matter could further clarify the legal risk embedded in the stock. ^[42]
Next Earnings and Updated Guidance
Strategy’s next major earnings update and any revisions to its Bitcoin‑linked guidance will be crucial in revealing how management and auditors are navigating fair‑value accounting through extreme BTC volatility. ^[43]

Bottom Line

On November 30, 2025, Strategy Inc stock sits at a fascinating crossroads:

It is deeply tied to Bitcoin, with one of the largest corporate BTC treasuries in the world.
It is leveraged via convertibles and high‑coupon perpetual preferreds.
It is under scrutiny from index providers, shareholder lawyers and skeptics of its financial engineering.
Yet it remains heavily owned by major institutions, still carries a broadly positive analyst consensus, and trades at or below some estimates of its underlying Bitcoin value. ^[44]

For investors scanning Google News or Discover on November 30, MSTR is not just another tech stock. It is a running experiment in what happens when a listed software company effectively transforms itself into a leveraged, actively managed Bitcoin holding vehicle — with all the rewards and risks that transformation implies.

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