Published: November 30, 2025
Deere & Company stock: where things stand after Q4 2025
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) stock is coming off a volatile week as investors digest weaker full‑year earnings, cautious guidance for 2026 and a fresh wave of analyst downgrades.
In its official fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 report, Deere posted Q4 net income of $1.065 billion, or $3.93 per share, down from $1.245 billion, or $4.55 per share, in the same quarter a year earlier. For the full fiscal year, net income fell about 29%, from $7.10 billion in 2024 to $5.027 billion in 2025, even as the company maintained double‑digit profit margins. [1]
Despite the earnings decline, Deere’s Q4 worldwide net sales and revenues rose 11% to $12.394 billion, while equipment net sales climbed to $10.579 billion, up from $9.275 billion a year earlier. [2]
The market’s verdict has been clear: since closing at $498.13 on Tuesday, November 25, ahead of the report, Deere shares have slid to around $464–465 by Friday’s close, a drop of roughly 6.8% for the week. [3]
Q4 2025: resilient sales, weaker profits
Deere’s latest results highlight a familiar combination for cyclical industrials: relatively healthy demand in some segments, but significant pressure on profitability.
According to the company’s detailed earnings release:
- Q4 worldwide net sales and revenues: $12.394 billion, up 11% year‑over‑year.
- Q4 net income: $1.065 billion, down 14% year‑over‑year.
- Full‑year 2025 net sales and revenues: $45.684 billion, down 12% versus 2024.
- Full‑year net income: $5.027 billion, down 29% versus 2024, implying roughly 11% net margin. [4]
Segment performance was mixed: [5]
- Production & Precision Agriculture
- Q4 net sales: $4.74 billion, +10% YoY.
- Operating profit fell as higher production costs and tariffs offset price increases.
- Small Agriculture & Turf
- Q4 net sales: $2.46 billion, +7% YoY.
- Operating margin collapsed from 10.1% to 1.0%, hurt by tariffs, warranty costs and higher production expenses.
- Construction & Forestry
- Q4 net sales: $3.38 billion, +27% YoY.
- Operating profit grew modestly, supported by higher shipment volumes.
- Financial Services
- Q4 net income jumped 69% to $293 million on better financing spreads, special items and a lower provision for credit losses.
Local reporting from Deere’s hometown of Moline, Illinois, framed the year as “challenging,” stressing that the company’s net income fell about 29% but still totaled “just over $5 billion” for 2025. [6]
2026 outlook: Deere says this is the bottom of the large‑ag cycle
If the earnings line explains some of the stock’s weakness, the 2026 outlook explains the rest.
In its official guidance, Deere forecasts fiscal 2026 net income between $4.0 billion and $4.75 billion, well below 2025’s $5.027 billion, signaling another down year before an expected recovery. [7]
The company also laid out a granular industry outlook for 2026: [8]
- U.S. & Canada Large Agriculture: down 15–20%.
- U.S. & Canada Small Ag & Turf: flat to up 5%.
- Europe Ag & Turf: flat to up 5%.
- South America (tractors & combines): roughly flat.
- Asia Ag: down about 5%.
- U.S. & Canada Construction Equipment: flat to up 5%.
Deere’s management explicitly tied margin pressure to tariffs and higher production costs, estimating potential tariff impacts at around $1.2 billion pre‑tax, and warning that these pressures will persist into 2026 even as some markets begin to stabilize. [9]
Chairman and CEO John May described 2026 as likely marking “the bottom of the large ag cycle,” while pointing to growth opportunities in small agriculture, turf, and construction & forestry as offsets to weakness in big-ticket farm equipment. [10]
An earnings‑preview piece earlier in the week highlighted the macro backdrop: farmer sentiment, as tracked by a Purdue University/CME survey, had fallen to its lowest point in 12 months, reflecting pressure from record‑high corn and soybean yields and softer crop prices. [11]
How DE stock traded after the report
The stock reaction was swift.
Historical price data show: [12]
- Tue, Nov 25, 2025 (pre‑earnings close): $498.13
- Wed, Nov 26 (earnings day): shares dropped 5.67% to $469.87 on heavy volume.
- Fri, Nov 28: the stock closed at $464.49, down another 1.14% on the day and roughly 6.8% below Tuesday’s level.
Coverage from InsiderMonkey noted that Deere’s share price fell 5.67% to $469.87 as investors reacted to a “cautious outlook for the next fiscal year amid the threats of tariffs,” and to a full‑year earnings performance that underwhelmed relative to prior years. [13]
Zacks’ ETF commentary (via headlines) flagged that a 14% year‑over‑year decline in quarterly earnings put agriculture‑heavy ETFs in the spotlight, as funds with significant Deere weightings moved with the stock. [14]
All of this came during a generally supportive market backdrop: major U.S. indices logged strong gains over the holiday‑shortened week, even as Deere traded lower. [15]
Wall Street response: downgrades, cuts and cautious optimism
Analysts have been quick to adjust their models and ratings in the wake of Deere’s guidance.
1. Wall Street Zen downgrade and consensus snapshot
A fresh article from MarketBeat on November 29 reports that Wall Street Zen downgraded Deere from “hold” to “sell”, even as the broader analyst community still sees upside. According to MarketBeat: [16]
- Overall consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.”
- Breakdown: 1 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Average price target: $519.45, implying upside from current levels.
- Recent trade data: shares around $465.95, with a 52‑week range of $403.01 to $533.78 and a trailing P/E in the mid‑20s.
The same piece notes that Q4 EPS of $3.93 came in $0.03 below one commonly used consensus estimate of $3.96 and that quarterly revenue of roughly $12.39 billion represented about 14% year‑over‑year growth. [17]
Other outlets, including an Investing.com transcript summary, describe the earnings as a slight beat, citing expectations closer to $3.85 per share. [18]
The takeaway: regardless of which data provider you trust, Deere’s Q4 earnings landed very close to expectations. The stock damage is mainly about the outlook, not the headline beat/miss.
2. Evercore ISI cuts its price target
Evercore ISI cut its price target on Deere to $458 from $487, while maintaining an “In Line” rating. [19]
In its note, Evercore highlighted:
- Ongoing weakness in agricultural equipment fundamentals with no clear positive inflection visible in the near term.
- An expectation that Q1 2026 earnings will be “well below consensus,” raising questions about the achievability of full‑year guidance.
- A view that meaningful improvement is more likely in the second half of 2026, but that such upside is “not yet visible” and thus not worth paying a premium valuation for today.
Other banks are more constructive. The same article references: [20]
- Truist Securities raising its price target to $612 (Buy).
- RBC Capital trimming its target to $541 but citing “solid” Q4 results.
- Oppenheimer increasing its target to $531, pointing to Deere’s technology adoption and precision‑ag strategy.
- UBS reiterating a Buy rating and suggesting 2027 as the likely year for earnings to move decisively higher after a 2026 trough.
3. Quant and valuation takes
A quantitative look from Trefis this week painted a much less flattering picture. Using its downturn‑resilience framework, Trefis described Deere as “Unattractive,” citing: [21]
- Market cap around $127 billion with roughly $43 billion in revenue.
- Last‑12‑month revenue growth of ‑20.9% and an operating margin of about 20%.
- A P/E around 24x and a P/EBIT multiple near 13x.
The analysis emphasized Deere’s history of large drawdowns in past downturns but also its ability to recover strongly once the cycle turns.
Dividend, balance sheet and valuation snapshot
Beyond earnings and guidance, long‑term investors care about how Deere looks on dividends, leverage and valuation.
Dividend
In late August, Deere’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, payable on November 10, 2025 to shareholders of record as of September 30. [22]
At a share price around $464–465, that works out to an annualized dividend of $6.48 per share and a yield of roughly 1.4%—not high, but backed by an 11% net margin and a long history of regular payouts. [23]
Balance sheet & ownership
StockTitan’s summary of Deere’s latest filings lists: [24]
- Market cap: about $127 billion.
- Float: roughly 270 million shares.
- Insider ownership: about 0.2–0.3%.
- Institutional ownership: more than 80% of shares.
Deere’s own financial statements show robust liquidity, with cash and cash equivalents rising to $8.3 billion and a large, but managed, financing portfolio in its Financial Services arm. [25]
Taken together, most third‑party data sources place Deere on solid footing, but not obviously cheap: the stock trades at roughly 24–25 times trailing earnings, while earnings are forecast to decline again in 2026 before recovering. [26]
Tariffs, technology and farmer sentiment: key themes to watch
Three big themes run through this week’s coverage of Deere & Company stock:
- Tariffs and margin pressure
Deere’s Q4 materials and earnings call repeatedly flagged tariffs as a major headwind, both via higher production costs and direct tariff expense. Management now estimates potential tariff impacts at around $1.2 billion pre‑tax, and local/regional coverage has underlined that these pressures were a major contributor to the 14% Q4 net income decline and 29% full‑year drop. [27] - Farmer sentiment and the large‑ag downturn
A Stocktwits analysis before the earnings release highlighted how farmer sentiment has deteriorated, with the Purdue/CME survey hitting a 12‑month low amid record corn and soybean yields pressuring crop prices. [28]
Deere’s own 2026 industry outlook, calling for a 15–20% decline in North American large‑ag demand, effectively bakes that weaker sentiment into its guidance. [29] - Precision agriculture and autonomy as long‑term growth drivers
Even in a tough year, Deere is still leaning hard into precision agriculture, autonomy and subscription‑like digital services. The company recently noted that its See & Spray™ technology covered more than five million acres in 2025, cutting herbicide use by almost 50% on those acres. [30]
Wells Fargo analysts have projected a tripling of Deere’s installed base of subscription retrofit precision‑ag products, viewing that portfolio as a key driver of future unit profitability. [31]
Is Deere & Company stock a buy, hold or sell now?
As of November 30, 2025, the story around DE stock is nuanced:
- The bear case:
- Earnings are down sharply year‑over‑year, both in Q4 and for the full year. [32]
- 2026 guidance implies another earnings step down and a double‑digit decline in large‑ag volumes. [33]
- Tariffs and production costs remain a drag, and at ~24–25x trailing earnings, the stock isn’t obviously cheap for a cyclical manufacturer facing a downturn. [34]
- Some quantitative and research providers now flag Deere as unattractive, and at least one service has downgraded the stock to “sell.” [35]
- The bull case:
- Deere is still generating around $5 billion of annual net income with double‑digit net margins in what management argues is a down‑cycle. [36]
- The company is deeply embedded in global food, construction and infrastructure supply chains—structural demand drivers that don’t disappear because of one weak cycle. [37]
- Precision agriculture, autonomy and connected equipment create a path to higher‑margin, more recurring revenue as adoption scales. [38]
- The consensus analyst target (around $519) still implies upside from current levels, and several major firms maintain Buy ratings with targets in the $530–$600+ range. [39]
For investors, the decision now largely comes down to time horizon and risk tolerance:
- Short‑term traders are wrestling with weak 2026 numbers, tariff uncertainty and the risk that estimates still need to move lower.
- Long‑term holders are looking past the trough, betting that Deere’s technology investments and the eventual recovery in farm income will justify paying up for a best‑in‑class franchise.
References
1. www.deere.com, 2. www.deere.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.deere.com, 5. www.deere.com, 6. www.kwqc.com, 7. www.deere.com, 8. www.deere.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.deere.com, 11. stocktwits.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.insidermonkey.com, 14. www.zacks.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.trefis.com, 22. www.stocktitan.net, 23. www.deere.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. www.deere.com, 26. www.deere.com, 27. www.deere.com, 28. stocktwits.com, 29. www.deere.com, 30. www.deere.com, 31. stocktwits.com, 32. www.deere.com, 33. www.deere.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.trefis.com, 36. www.deere.com, 37. www.deere.com, 38. www.deere.com, 39. www.investing.com
