As of Sunday, November 30, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) sits just below its all‑time high after a packed month of record earnings, restructuring, and fresh pressure from U.S. export rules aimed at China. The stock closed Friday at $252.25, near its 52‑week high of $252.66, extending a roughly 44% gain over the past 12 months and more than 50% in 2025 on many measures. [1]
Behind that move is a mix of powerful AI-driven demand for advanced chips, record margins, a new round of layoffs and cost cuts, and growing uncertainty about how much business AMAT will be allowed to do in China over the next few years. [2]
Key takeaways for AMAT stock as of November 30, 2025
- Trading near record highs: AMAT last closed at $252.25, just below its 52‑week peak of $252.66, with the stock up about 44% over the past year. [3]
- Record fiscal 2025 results: Revenue reached $28.37 billion (+4% year over year) with record GAAP EPS of $8.66 and non‑GAAP EPS of $9.42, despite a slight decline in Q4 sales. [4]
- China and export controls are the main overhang: Management expects lower chipmaking equipment spending in China in 2026 and a potential $600 million revenue hit from new U.S. export restrictions. [5]
- Restructuring and layoffs: Applied Materials is cutting about 1,400 jobs (under 4% of its workforce) and recording up to $180 million in restructuring costs as it shifts toward automation and digitalization. [6]
- Strong balance sheet and institutional support: The company sports a P/E around 30, low leverage, and high institutional ownership around 80–83%, with large investors both trimming and adding positions. [7]
- Wall Street mostly bullish but divided on valuation: Consensus ratings cluster around “Moderate Buy,” yet different models see everything from modest downside to strong long‑term outperformance potential. [8]
AMAT stock snapshot heading into December 2025
Friday’s close at $252.25 capped a strong November for AMAT, with recent trading days showing a steady march higher from $230.91 on November 24 to $252.25 on November 28. [9]
Over the last 12 months:
- 52‑week range: roughly $123.74 – $252.66
- 12‑month performance: about +44%
- Average daily volume: around 2.9 million shares [10]
According to recent filings and market data, the stock now carries:
- Market capitalization: about $200–201 billion
- Trailing P/E ratio: roughly 30x
- Price‑to‑sales (P/S): about 7.0x, roughly 31% lower than a year ago even though the stock is up strongly year‑to‑date [11]
- Quick ratio:1.76 and current ratio:2.50, signaling ample liquidity
- Debt‑to‑equity: just 0.28, indicating a conservative balance sheet
- 50‑day / 200‑day simple moving averages: about $224.86 and $192.43, respectively [12]
Institutional and hedge‑fund ownership sits near 80–83%, depending on the dataset, while short interest is a modest ~2.8% of shares. [13]
Record fiscal 2025 results: AI keeps the story growing
Applied Materials’ fourth‑quarter and fiscal 2025 results—reported on November 13—anchored much of the recent move. The company delivered: [14]
- Fiscal 2025 revenue: $28.37 billion, up 4% year over year
- Record GAAP EPS: $8.66, up 1% year over year
- Record non‑GAAP EPS: $9.42, up 9% year over year
- Q4 2025 revenue: $6.80 billion, down 3% vs. Q4 2024
- Q4 GAAP EPS: $2.38 (+14% YoY)
- Q4 non‑GAAP EPS: $2.17 (‑6% YoY)
Gross margin expanded to 48.7% for the year and 48.0% in Q4, with non‑GAAP gross margin even higher at 48.8%, underscoring strong pricing power and product mix. Operating margins stayed near 29–30% on a non‑GAAP basis. [15]
Management has guided Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue to about $6.85 billion ± $500 million, with non‑GAAP EPS of $2.18 ± $0.20. [16]
In its earnings release, the company highlighted that AI adoption is driving substantial investment in advanced semiconductors, and that Applied is positioned “at the highest value technology inflections in leading‑edge logic, DRAM and advanced packaging” as the next wave of AI‑centric chips ramps into volume production. [17]
Analysts’ post‑earnings summaries generally note:
- A beat on EPS versus consensus (roughly $2.17 vs. a $2.11 estimate),
- A 3.5% year‑over‑year revenue decline for the quarter,
- Still‑robust return on equity (~41%) and net margin (~24%). [18]
In short, fiscal 2025 showed that AMAT can keep expanding earnings and margins even in a bumpy spending environment, largely thanks to its leverage to AI, high‑end logic, and advanced memory.
Export controls and the China overhang
The biggest shadow over the story is China.
On November 14, Reuters reported that AMAT’s shares fell more than 3% in early trading after the company forecast reduced spending in China for 2026 due to stricter U.S. export curbs on advanced chipmaking tools. [19]
Industry research firm TrendForce noted that: [20]
- New U.S. export rules in 2025 have shrunk AMAT’s addressable market in China.
- China still accounted for about 28% of Applied’s total systems and services revenue in fiscal 2025, and 25% in Q4, underscoring how important that market remains.
- The company expects spending on chipmaking equipment in China to fall in 2026, while rising demand tied to AI‑driven memory and advanced logic outside China should partially offset the impact.
A separate analysis highlighted management’s estimate that new U.S. export restrictions could wipe roughly $600 million off fiscal 2026 revenue, adding another layer of uncertainty to the medium‑term outlook. [21]
So far, investors seem willing to accept that near‑term China weakness may be balanced by stronger demand in other regions and segments tied to AI infrastructure. But export policy remains a key risk lever for AMAT’s valuation.
Restructuring, layoffs, and an automation push
In late October, Applied Materials announced a restructuring program that includes cutting about 1,400 jobs worldwide, representing under 4% of its 36,100 employees. The company expects $160–$180 million in severance and termination‑related charges, largely recognized in Q4 fiscal 2025. [22]
According to an October 24 regulatory filing and subsequent coverage: [23]
- The cuts are framed as part of a broader shift toward automation, digitalization, and geographic realignment of operations.
- The move is also described as a response to export headwinds and a more complex regulatory environment, especially around China.
- Despite the layoffs, AMAT’s stock rose nearly 4% on the day of the announcement, closing around $228.47, suggesting investors are viewing the restructuring as proactive cost and productivity management rather than a distress signal.
Taken together with management’s commentary on preparing for higher demand in the second half of calendar 2026, the restructuring looks aimed at streamlining the company ahead of what it expects will be another up‑leg in AI‑driven wafer‑fab spending. [24]
Institutional flows and insider activity
Recent 13F filings show that large institutional investors are actively tuning their positions in AMAT rather than abandoning it:
- The New York State Common Retirement Fund trimmed its stake by about 0.7% in Q2, selling just over 7,000 shares. It still holds 1,077,482 shares, roughly 0.13% of the company, valued near $197 million. [25]
- Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management went the other way, raising its AMAT position by 12.5% in Q2 by purchasing about 59,000 additional shares. It now owns 532,194 shares, approximately 0.07% of AMAT, worth around $97 million. [26]
MarketBeat’s aggregation of filings suggests that around 80.6% of the stock is held by hedge funds and other institutions, while another dataset compiled by StockTitan pegs institutional ownership closer to 83%, a difference likely explained by methodology and timing. [27]
On the insider front, senior vice president and CLO Teri A. Little sold 4,000 shares on November 25 at an average price of $238.24, a roughly $953,000 transaction that reduced her stake by about 4.5% but still left her holding more than 84,000 shares. Corporate insiders in total own only around 0.24% of AMAT’s stock, typical for a large‑cap semiconductor equipment name. [28]
Overall, the flow data suggests continued institutional confidence with portfolio rebalancing at the margins, rather than a broad exit.
Dividends, balance sheet, and capital returns
Applied Materials continues to return cash to shareholders while maintaining a conservative balance sheet:
- The company recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.46 per share, payable December 11, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 20. That works out to $1.84 per share annually, for a trailing yield of about 0.7% and a payout ratio around 21%. [29]
- Earlier in 2025, the board approved a new $10 billion share repurchase authorization, underscoring management’s confidence in long‑term cash generation. [30]
- As noted above, AMAT’s quick ratio (1.76) and current ratio (2.50) point to strong near‑term liquidity, while a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.28 keeps financial leverage modest. [31]
Trefis data show AMAT generating last‑twelve‑months operating margins around 30% and operating cash‑flow margins near 27%, well above S&P 500 medians. [32]
The combination of high margins, disciplined leverage, and ongoing buybacks makes AMAT look very much like a mature “cash machine” at the heart of the semiconductor equipment stack.
How Wall Street and models value AMAT now
The current debate is less about whether Applied Materials is a high‑quality business—that point is broadly conceded—and more about how much of that quality is already in the price.
Analyst ratings and price targets
MarketBeat’s compilation of broker research shows: [33]
- A “Moderate Buy” consensus rating
- Roughly 20 Buy ratings and 14 Hold ratings
- An average price target around $228 per share, below the current price but not dramatically so
Individual price targets run the gamut:
- Evercore ISI: $290 (Outperform)
- UBS: upgraded AMAT to “Buy” with a target of $285
- Citigroup:$250 and Buy
- Barclays:$250 with an Equal Weight rating
- TD Cowen: $200 target but still a Buy
In other words, even the cautious houses generally see AMAT as a long‑term winner, though several targets trail the current share price.
Model‑driven valuations: fair value or fully priced?
A recent analysis from TIKR argues that AMAT is high‑quality but close to fully valued: [34]
- At the time of that report, the stock traded near $236.
- The average Street price target was about $218, with a high of ~$265 and a low near $160.
- TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model—using roughly 19x forward earnings and consensus estimates through 2027—suggested a target around $221 by 2027, implying about 6% downside from that then‑current price and slightly negative annualized returns if everything goes exactly to plan.
By contrast, Trefis frames the story as one of multiple compression despite strong fundamentals: AMAT is up roughly 55% so far in 2025, but its P/S multiple is about 31% lower than a year ago, as revenue and cash‑flow metrics have improved faster than valuation multiples. [35]
Meanwhile, GuruFocus assigns AMAT a GF Score of 94 out of 100, its highest “outperformance potential” category, pointing to strong profitability, growth, and financial strength. At the time of its recent note, the stock traded around $248, with a three‑month gain above 50%. [36]
The big picture:
- Quantitative valuation models tend to say “great company, modest near‑term return potential at this price.”
- Quality‑focused frameworks emphasize AMAT’s structural advantages and long‑term compounding potential, even if near‑term upside looks muted.
Near‑term catalysts: UBS Tech & AI conference and the AI product cycle
Investors will get another read‑out from management soon. CFO Brice Hill is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference on December 2, 2025, with a live webcast and replay available via Applied’s investor relations site. [37]
On the product side, October saw Applied roll out new tools like the Kinex Bonding System and the Centura Xtera Epi system, both aimed at improving chip performance and yield in advanced packaging—key bottlenecks in AI and high‑performance computing. [38]
The company has also deepened collaborations with major chipmakers—including work with GlobalFoundries on AI‑powered photonics manufacturing—and continues to emphasize materials engineering and automation software as long‑term growth drivers. [39]
Any incremental commentary on:
- the Q1 FY26 outlook,
- China demand and export rules, and
- expected savings from the restructuring program
could influence how investors reconcile AMAT’s strong fundamentals with its already rich valuation.
Risks to monitor
Despite the strong setup, several risks loom large for AMAT shareholders:
- Export and geopolitical risk: New U.S. rules targeting advanced tools and Chinese fabs are already expected to shave about $600 million off fiscal 2026 revenue, and further policy changes could hit orders or delay installations. [40]
- China concentration: With around a quarter to nearly a third of systems and services revenue tied to China, any slowdown or additional restrictions could disproportionately impact AMAT relative to more diversified peers. [41]
- Cyclicality and competition: Analyst work from TIKR and others stresses that even the highest‑quality semi‑equipment names regularly suffer deep drawdowns—AMAT’s past cycles have seen peak‑to‑trough declines exceeding 50% during major market sell‑offs. Competitors like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron remain aggressive on price and technology. [42]
- Execution on restructuring: The 1,400‑person restructuring aims to streamline operations and accelerate automation. If disruptions outweigh efficiencies—or if the company under‑delivers on cost savings—margin expansion could stall. [43]
- Valuation risk: With a trailing P/E around 30x and forward multiples near long‑term averages, there is limited room for multiple expansion unless AI demand surprises materially to the upside. Conversely, any moderation in capex could compress earnings and valuation at the same time. [44]
Bottom line: high‑quality AI lever with a policy‑driven ceiling
As of November 30, 2025, Applied Materials looks like one of the clearest pure‑play beneficiaries of the AI build‑out, with record earnings, industry‑leading margins, and a deep product roadmap in advanced logic, memory, and packaging. The stock now trades near all‑time highs after a huge 2025 rally, supported by robust cash generation, active buybacks, and broad institutional ownership. [45]
At the same time, China exposure and U.S. export controls introduce real uncertainty into the 2026–2027 outlook, and multiple independent valuation models suggest that much of the near‑term optimism is already reflected in today’s price. [46]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.globenewswire.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.globenewswire.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. coincentral.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.trendforce.com, 21. coincentral.com, 22. coincentral.com, 23. coincentral.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.tikr.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.trefis.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.tikr.com, 35. www.trefis.com, 36. www.gurufocus.com, 37. www.stocktitan.net, 38. www.trefis.com, 39. coincentral.com, 40. coincentral.com, 41. www.trendforce.com, 42. www.tikr.com, 43. coincentral.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. www.globenewswire.com, 46. www.reuters.com
