US Stock Market Opening Preview for December 1, 2025: 10 Things to Know Before the Bell

The first trading day of December lands on Monday, December 1, 2025, and Wall Street is coming off a holiday‑shortened week that ended on a surprisingly upbeat note. Stocks have rebounded from their biggest pullback since April, but traders are heading into the new month with one eye on Fed rate‑cut odds and the other on AI valuations, delayed economic data, and signs of consumer fatigue. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at the key themes and data that could shape trading when the US stock market opens on Monday.

Key takeaways at a glance

Wall Street just logged solid weekly gains, even as the Nasdaq finished November in the red and technical indicators flash mild caution. ^[2]
Rate‑cut expectations for the December 9–10 FOMC meeting have surged above 80–85%, after J.P. Morgan flipped its call to a December cut. ^[3]
Record Black Friday online sales of $11.8 billion highlight a still‑spending but price‑sensitive US consumer—crucial for retailers, payments firms and growth outlooks. ^[4]

1. Where Wall Street stands heading into December

Friday’s post‑Thanksgiving half‑day session (Nov. 28) set the tone for the new week:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.61% to 47,716.42
S&P 500: +0.54% to 6,849.09
Nasdaq Composite: +0.65% to 23,365.69 ^[5]

All three major indices posted strong weekly gains (S&P +3.73%, Nasdaq +4.91%, Dow +3.18%), and the S&P and Dow nudged back into positive territory for November. The Nasdaq, however, still finished the month down about 1.5%, reflecting concern over stretched AI and tech valuations. ^[6]

From a longer‑term lens, the S&P 500 is up roughly 16% year‑to‑date going into a month that is historically friendly for stocks: December ranks as the index’s third‑best month since 1950, with an average gain around 1.4%. ^[7]

But the smooth ride is showing some cracks. A widely watched technical pattern just broke:

The S&P 500 ended a 138‑trading‑day streak of closing above its 50‑day moving average on Nov. 17, the longest such run since 2006–07. ^[8]

Historically, breaks after unusually long above‑trend runs have sometimes preceded bear markets, but often they’ve just signaled short‑term consolidation rather than catastrophe. For Monday’s open, it’s a yellow flag, not a red one: traders will be sensitive to any renewed selling in mega‑cap AI names.

2. Fed rate‑cut bets dominate the macro narrative

If there’s one storyline that matters most for December, it’s the Federal Reserve.

J.P. Morgan now expects a 25‑bp rate cut at the December meeting, reversing its earlier call that the Fed would stay on hold until January. ^[9]
Traders in Fed funds futures are pricing roughly 80–85% odds of that December cut, reflecting a sharp shift after dovish comments from key Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams. ^[10]

Complicating the picture: the 43‑day US government shutdown earlier this year has delayed or distorted several key data releases, including some inflation and labor market series the Fed normally watches closely. ^[11]

As Reuters put it, investors are effectively driving “in a fog” through year‑end: the Fed may have just enough information to justify a cut, but not enough to be fully confident about the economy’s true speed. ^[12]

What this means for Monday’s open

Any fresh information that challenges the “December cut is coming” narrative could jolt yields and high‑growth tech.
Conversely, data or corporate commentary that suggest slowing yet not collapsing growth support the “soft landing + gentle easing” scenario that markets are currently pricing.

3. Record Black Friday online sales: strong spending, cautious shoppers

The most striking data point from Saturday, November 29, 2025 came from holiday shopping:

US Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024, according to Adobe Analytics. ^[13]
AI‑powered shopping tools and chatbots drove an 805% jump in AI‑driven traffic to retail websites compared with last year. ^[14]

But it’s not an unambiguously bullish story:

Salesforce data show order volumes fell 1%, with average selling prices up 7%—shoppers bought fewer items per transaction. ^[15]
Analysts point to higher prices, tariffs, and a still‑soft labor market as reasons consumers feel stretched even as dollar spending sets new records. ^[16]

Market implications for Monday

Online‑focused retailers, payment processors, logistics companies and big‑box chains will stay in focus as traders extrapolate these numbers into Q4 earnings and GDP.
The quality of spending matters: higher prices but fewer units sold can pressure margins, especially if discounting intensifies as December progresses.

4. AI trade still leads — but valuations are under scrutiny

Markets are increasingly split between excitement about AI and anxiety over how fast that excitement turns into real profits.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been heavily driven by AI‑linked mega‑caps like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Big moves in these names have recently driven index swings as investors react to AI product launches, chip demand, and enormous capex plans. ^[17]
Alphabet’s market value has climbed toward $4 trillion on optimism around its Gemini 3 AI model and reports that Meta may spend billions on Google’s chips—news that simultaneously rattled Nvidia shares. ^[18]

From a technical angle, the end of the S&P’s long streak above its 50‑day moving average has some strategists wondering whether AI‑heavy indices are transitioning from a smooth uptrend into a choppier, late‑cycle phase. ^[19]

What to watch Monday

Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and other AI bellwethers will be key tells for risk appetite.
Any headlines questioning AI profitability, cloud spending, or chip supply bottlenecks could spark outsized moves, given how concentrated index gains have been in this theme.

5. Monday’s key data: US manufacturing in the spotlight

The economic calendar for Monday, December 1, 2025 isn’t packed, but what is on deck matters:

The US ISM Manufacturing Index for November is due at 10:00 ET, a closely watched gauge of factory activity and business sentiment. ^[20]
A separate Manufacturing PMI print is also scheduled, giving another look at the industrial side of the economy. ^[21]

Later in the week, markets will digest:

ADP employment (Wednesday)
US services PMI / ISM non‑manufacturing (Wednesday) ^[22]
The long‑delayed core PCE Price Index and other inflation data (Friday), rescheduled because of the earlier government shutdown. ^[23]

Why Monday’s manufacturing data matters

A weak ISM reading would reinforce the case for a December Fed cut and might pressure yields, helping rate‑sensitive sectors (small caps, REITs).
A surprisingly strong print, especially on prices‑paid or employment components, could raise fears that the Fed will blink—or cut more cautiously than markets expect.

6. Earnings and sector stories to monitor

While Q3 earnings season is largely behind us, a few marquee names report this week:

Salesforce (CRM) — key for SaaS, cloud, and business software sentiment.
Retail names like Kroger and Dollar Tree — important windows into consumer trade‑downs, food inflation, and value shopping trends. ^[24]

Investors will be listening closely for:

Commentary on holiday sales momentum post–Black Friday/Cyber Monday.
Any signals about enterprise software budgets and AI‑related spending.

These micro stories can feed back into the macro debate: if corporate guidance feels cautious, it can reinforce the idea that growth is slowing just as policy begins to ease.

7. Global backdrop: China’s factory slowdown and OPEC+ stability

Beyond US borders, two macro threads could influence risk sentiment on Monday:

China’s manufacturing slowdown continues
- China’s factory activity shrunk for an eighth month in November, with the official manufacturing PMI at 49.2—still below the 50 expansion line—while services activity cooled as well. ^[25]
- This underlines persistent headwinds from weak domestic demand, trade tensions, and a still‑fragile property sector.
For US markets, continued Chinese softness weighs on global demand expectations for industrial, commodities, and luxury names.
OPEC+ likely to hold oil output steady
- OPEC+ is expected to leave production levels unchanged at its Sunday meeting, as the group balances a desire for market share with fears of a supply glut. ^[26]
Stable supply guidance reduces the risk of a near‑term oil price spike, which helps the “disinflation + Fed cut”story that equity bulls are leaning on.

8. Lessons from the CME outage: market plumbing in focus

Another under‑the‑radar risk heading into Monday is market infrastructure.

On Friday, global futures markets were thrown into chaos when CME Group suffered one of its longest outages in years, triggered by a cooling issue at a data center. Trading in futures linked to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies was halted for more than 11 hours before resuming. ^[27]

Even though the outage happened on a thin, post‑holiday half‑day, limiting real damage, it raised uncomfortable questions:

CME’s equity index futures are a critical pre‑market price discovery tool for Wall Street, especially before the cash session opens. ^[28]
The incident underscored that data centers are now essential financial infrastructure, and not immune to physical or technical failures. ^[29]

For Monday morning, the direct impact from the outage is over, but traders may:

Be more wary about over‑relying on a single venue for price cues.
Watch for regulatory or risk‑management discussions around redundancy and resiliency—particularly important as AI and high‑frequency trading keep raising the stakes on uptime.

9. Sentiment check: seasonal tailwind vs. lingering “risk‑off” signals

Seasonality is a quiet ally for bulls:

December tends to be a strong month, and markets have already rebounded from their sharpest pullback since April. ^[30]

But there are subtle signs that risk appetite isn’t limitless:

The Nasdaq’s November loss, despite big weekly gains, suggests investors are trimming exposure to the highest‑flyer AI names. ^[31]
Bitcoin has slid from above $125,000 in early October to below $90,000, a meaningful drop in what many see as a proxy for speculative risk sentiment. ^[32]

Together with the S&P’s technical break below its 50‑day moving average after an unusually long streak, these factors point toward a market that is still bullish, but more discriminating. ^[33]

10. What it all means for US stocks at Monday’s open

Putting the pieces together, here’s how the setup looks as of Sunday night for Monday, December 1, 2025:

Supportive forces
- Strong weekly gains and a favorable December seasonality pattern. ^[34]
- Rising conviction in a December Fed rate cut, even amid data gaps. ^[35]
- Robust though price‑sensitive Black Friday online spending, suggesting the consumer is downshifting but not collapsing. ^[36]
- OPEC+ leaning toward steady oil output, easing fears of a fresh inflation shock. ^[37]
Headwinds and wildcards
- Valuation jitters in AI and mega‑cap tech, with markets hyper‑sensitive to profit and capex news. ^[38]
- Ongoing data “fog” after the government shutdown, making it harder to gauge true economic momentum. ^[39]
- Persistent weakness in Chinese manufacturing, weighing on global growth expectations. ^[40]
- Structural concerns about market infrastructure resilience, highlighted by the recent CME outage. ^[41]

For traders and investors heading into the opening bell, Monday looks less like a high‑drama event day and more like the opening chapter of a pivotal month:

Short‑term traders may focus on ISM manufacturing, AI‑linked headlines, and any follow‑through in retail stocks after the Black Friday data.
Long‑term investors might treat early‑December volatility as a barometer of how much “Fed cut + AI + holiday spending” optimism is already baked into prices.

Either way, the main story is clear: December’s path for US stocks will be written at the intersection of AI, the Fed, the consumer, and a global economy that’s still struggling to find its post‑shock footing.

This article is for information and education only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

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