UK Stock Market Preview for 1 December 2025: FTSE 100 Eyes Higher Open as Budget Fallout, PMI Data and Fed Bets Dominate

As London investors gear up for the first trading day of December on Monday, 1 December 2025, the UK stock market opens against a backdrop of calmer bond markets, a tax‑heavy Budget under political fire, and growing expectations of global interest‑rate cuts.

The FTSE 100 closed on Friday at 9,720.51, up about 0.27% on the day, while the mid‑cap FTSE 250 also edged higher. Both indices logged solid weekly gains but finished November roughly flat overall, with the FTSE 100 ending the month down around 0.2%, breaking a four‑month winning streak. ^[1]

As of Sunday afternoon (30 November), FTSE 100 futures were trading around 9,746, indicating a mildly positive start for UK equities if the tone holds into the cash open. US and European index futures are also pointing higher, suggesting risk appetite remains intact heading into the new week. ^[2]

Below is what you need to know before the UK stock market opens tomorrow.

1. How markets finished last week

UK: Strong week, soft month

FTSE 100:
- Friday close: 9,720.51, up 26.58 points (+0.27%). ^[3]
- November performance: modest decline of about 0.2%, ending a four‑month run of monthly gains. ^[4]
FTSE 250:
- Friday close: 22,165.17, up roughly 0.33% on the day. ^[5]

Weekly data from London and European exchanges show UK equities chalked up one of their better weeks in months, with large‑caps and mid‑caps posting mid‑single‑digit gains, helped by easing bond yields and a more constructive reaction to the Autumn Budget than many feared. ^[6]

At the same time, the pullback over the month is a reminder that UK stocks are still trading just below record highs – the FTSE 100 hit an all‑time high above 9,930 earlier in November – and are sensitive to any wobble in global risk sentiment or domestic politics. ^[7]

Global risk tone: Wall Street’s holiday bounce

On Friday 28 November, US markets ended a shortened Black Friday session in the green:

S&P 500 up about 0.5%,
Dow Jones Industrial Average up roughly 0.6%,
Nasdaq Composite up around 0.7%. ^[8]

For the week, all three major US indices posted some of their strongest gains since June, even though the Nasdaq ended November down about 1.5%, weighed by renewed concerns over stretched tech valuations. ^[9]

The global picture from late Friday showed:

S&P 500: 6,849.09 (+0.54% on the day)
FTSE 100: 9,720.51 (+0.27%)
DAX: 23,836.79 (+0.29%)
Nikkei 225: 50,253.91 (+0.17%) ^[10]

That leaves risk assets heading into December with positive momentum, but also high expectations that central banks will soon deliver rate cuts – a key theme for UK investors on Monday.

2. Budget 2025: Markets calm, politics anything but

What markets liked

The Autumn Budget delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in late November remains the single biggest domestic story for UK assets going into Monday’s open.

Key market takeaways from the week: ^[11]

The Budget raised taxes to a post‑war high, hitting workers, savers and investors but boosting the government’s fiscal “headroom” – the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now estimates nearly £22bn of space in five years’ time.
Gilt yields fell sharply in the immediate aftermath. Long‑dated yields saw one of their biggest single‑day drops since April, signalling that bond investors were reassured by tighter long‑term fiscal plans. ^[12]
The pound strengthened and the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both jumped about 0.9–1.2% on Budget day, led by banks and miners. ^[13]
Banks rallied after the sector escaped a new windfall levy, making financials one of the best‑performing European sectors in November. ^[14]

Sector moves around the Budget:

Banks climbed more than 2% on Budget day as investors cheered the absence of new targeted taxes. ^[15]
Precious metal miners surged over 5% as gold prices rallied on growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. ^[16]
Homebuilders fell roughly 1% amid higher property taxes on high‑value real estate. ^[17]
Whitbread, the Premier Inn owner, slumped by around 11–12% over the week, after analysts warned that changes to business rates could wipe tens of millions from annual profits. ^[18]

From a markets‑only lens, the Budget has reduced immediate fears of a UK debt spiral and helped cool the “bond vigilantes” that shook gilts in previous years. UK 10‑year yields now hover near 4.44%, down from recent highs. ^[19]

What worries economists and politicians

Beneath that calm surface, criticism of the Budget intensified on 29 November, and this could cast a shadow over gilts, sterling and some domestically focused stocks on Monday.

Risk of a “confidence crisis”
- Analysts at Oxford Economics warn that the fiscal plan relies heavily on back‑loaded tax rises and spending restraint in the years around the next general election.
- They argue markets could gradually lose faith, leaving the UK vulnerable to a sudden confidence shock if investors start to doubt that promised tightening will ever materialise. ^[20]
Accusations of misleading pre‑Budget briefings
- On Saturday 29 November, the Scottish National Party called on the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to investigate whether the Treasury misled the public and markets with claims of a £20bn “black hole” in the public finances ahead of the Budget. ^[21]
- The OBR revealed it had already told the Chancellor in mid‑September that the fiscal gap was likely smaller than early headlines suggested, raising questions about whether warnings of a huge shortfall were exaggerated. ^[22]
- Opposition politicians, including Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, accuse Reeves of scaring markets and consumers with talk of a non‑existent hole; Downing Street denies any intent to mislead. ^[23]
Strategic shift to shorter‑term debt
- An analysis published on 29 November highlights that the Debt Management Office plans to increase Treasury bill issuance by about £11bn in 2025/26, part of a shift towards shorter‑maturity borrowing. ^[24]
- Outstanding UK T‑bills already total around £108bn. While a deeper bill market can boost liquidity and attract new investors (including GBP‑backed stablecoin issuers), it also leaves the UK more exposed to future rate hikes, because debt has to be refinanced more frequently. ^[25]

What it means for Monday:

Any headlines about an FCA probe or further OBR commentary could nudge gilt yields and sterling at the open.
Domestic plays tied to consumer confidence, housing and hospitality (housebuilders, retailers, hotel groups like Whitbread) remain sensitive to signs that higher taxes and political uncertainty are weighing on spending. ^[26]

3. Central banks: Fed cut hopes vs BoE caution

Federal Reserve: Markets are leaning dovish

Friday’s Wall Street rally came as investors priced in a high probability of a US rate cut at the December 2025 meeting, helped by softer economic data and dovish rhetoric from some Fed officials. ^[27]

Reuters reports that all three US indices advanced over the holiday‑shortened week, with optimism about a December cut a key driver. ^[28]
Fed watchers note that policymakers remain split on how quickly to ease, but futures pricing implies investors think the Fed is close to – or already in – the early stages of a rate‑cutting cycle. ^[29]

For UK markets, lower US yields and a softer dollar are typically supportive for:

Gold miners (via gold prices),
Global cyclicals and EM‑exposed names, and
High‑dividend defensives that benefit when bond yields fall. ^[30]

Bank of England: On hold at 4%, December cut in play

Closer to home, the Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 4% in recent meetings as UK inflation cools, and several analyses now suggest a December rate cut is increasingly likely, even as officials stress caution. ^[31]

Commentary from economists and media coverage of the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting highlight that the BoE is trying to balance weak growth with still‑elevated price pressures, but the bias has shifted away from further hikes. ^[32]

Implications for Monday:

Expectations of global policy easing support rate‑sensitive sectors such as real estate, infrastructure and some mid‑cap growth names.
However, with the UK Budget already pushing the tax burden higher, investors may be wary that monetary easing won’t fully offset fiscal tightening, especially for domestic small‑caps.

4. CME outage and market plumbing: A new risk on the radar

One of the more under‑the‑radar stories that could still be influencing sentiment at the Monday open is the CME Group outage on Friday.

A cooling failure at a data centre forced CME – the world’s largest derivatives exchange operator – to halt trading for several hours across futures and options on stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. ^[33]
Trading resumed before the US cash equity open, but the disruption highlighted how dependent global markets have become on single points of infrastructure.

For UK investors, this matters because:

FTSE futures and other index derivatives are a key signalling mechanism for the cash open. Any lingering concerns about exchange resilience could temper risk‑taking or prompt higher intraday volatility as traders adjust hedging strategies.
Regulators and risk managers may re‑examine contingency plans, potentially influencing how much leverage institutions are comfortable running into year‑end.

5. Key data and events on Monday, 1 December 2025

The first trading day of December is data‑heavy, with manufacturing PMIs and UK credit numbers in focus.

1. UK manufacturing and credit data (morning London time)

According to major economic calendars, Monday brings several important UK releases: ^[34]

S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov, final)
- Consensus and previous: around 50.2, just above the 50 boom‑bust line.
- Rough release time: 09:30 GMT.
Bank of England lending data (Oct)
- Mortgage approvals
- Consumer credit
- Broad money supply measures (M4/M3)

Why it matters:

A weaker‑than‑expected PMI could pressure cyclicals, industrials and mid‑caps, reinforcing growth concerns.
A stronger reading would support the narrative that the UK is avoiding outright contraction despite fiscal tightening.
Lending and mortgage figures will be closely watched by housebuilders, banks and REITs, given earlier signs that Budget uncertainty has already weighed on housing markets in parts of southern England. ^[35]

2. Global manufacturing PMIs

Monday also features a wave of manufacturing PMIs across major economies: ^[36]

China: Official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs are due overnight UK time, setting the tone for Asian trade and commodity demand.
Eurozone & Germany: Final manufacturing PMIs for November will update the picture for Europe’s industrial core.
United States:
- Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov) later in the US session.

For a commodity‑heavy, globally exposed index like the FTSE 100, these numbers will influence:

Miners and energy stocks (through demand for raw materials and oil),
Exporters (through global growth expectations and FX), and
Overall risk appetite through what they imply for the depth and timing of any Fed and ECB easing cycle.

6. Sectors and stocks to watch at the London open

Based on price action last week and weekend news dated 29 November 2025, several UK sectors look poised for potential moves when the market opens.

Banks and financials

European banks delivered some of the strongest monthly gains, with a regional bank index up about 4.5% in November, helped by the UK Budget’s decision not to impose extra levies on lenders. ^[37]
With the BoE seen edging closer to a cut but not yet slamming on the brakes, banks benefit from reduced regulatory and fiscal uncertainty but will be sensitive to the shape of the yield curve and any hint of weaker credit growth.

What to watch Monday:

Re‑pricing in major UK banks if gilt yields move on fresh Budget headlines or if the PMI data suggest corporate loan demand is softening.

Miners and energy

Industrial miners and precious‑metal miners were among the week’s outperformers, supported by record‑high copper prices and a strong rally in gold, as investors bet on Fed easing. ^[38]
The FTSE 100’s heavyweights like Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore and Fresnillo remain tightly linked to China’s PMIs and the US dollar path.

What to watch Monday:

Overnight China PMI surprises could drive early moves in miners.
Any update from OPEC+, which is widely expected to keep production policy broadly steady, would also influence BP, Shell and the wider energy complex. ^[39]

Homebuilders, real estate and hospitality

Homebuilders and hotel operators have been Budget losers, hit by higher property‑related taxes and the perception that the fiscal squeeze will dampen housing and travel demand. Whitbread’s double‑digit drop last week underlined how exposed the sector is. ^[40]
Fresh criticism of the Budget’s credibility and talk of an FCA probe can keep domestic property and consumer names under pressure.

What to watch Monday:

Mortgage approvals and consumer credit data will be key for sentiment in Berkeley Group, Barratt, Taylor Wimpey, REITs and leisure stocks. ^[41]

Exporters and FX‑sensitive names

With GBP/USD trading near 1.32 and both UK and US 10‑year yields just over 4%, exporters and overseas earners in the FTSE 100 remain sensitive to moves in sterling and global yields. ^[42]

What to watch Monday:

Any surprise in US PMI or Fed rhetoric could move the dollar, dragging sterling and, by extension, many large‑cap UK exporters with it.

7. Key levels and sentiment signals

While this article isn’t technical advice, a few reference points help frame Monday’s open:

FTSE 100
- Friday close: 9,720
- Record high (12 November): just under 9,930
- Futures currently suggest a start around 9,740–9,750, putting the index within sight of the 9,800 region that traders often treat as a psychological barometer of bullishness. ^[43]
UK 10‑year gilt
- Yield around 4.44%, down from peaks earlier this autumn but still well above pre‑pandemic norms. ^[44]
GBP/USD
- Around 1.32, marginally softer over the week but comfortably off this year’s lows. ^[45]

If futures stay firm and Budget‑related headlines don’t deteriorate, Monday’s session could extend the late‑November rebound, especially in banks, miners and other globally exposed blue‑chips. But with manufacturing data due, an FCA investigation being demanded, and central‑bank expectations delicately poised, volatility around key releases is likely.

8. The bottom line for Monday’s UK open

Going into 1 December 2025, UK investors face a market shaped by three intersecting forces:

A tax‑heavy but market‑friendly Budget that soothed bond markets and boosted banks, while angering parts of the domestic economy and triggering calls for regulatory scrutiny. ^[46]
Global rate‑cut hopes, with the Fed and, to a lesser extent, the BoE expected to begin easing in the months ahead – a tailwind for risk assets, but also a potential disappointment risk if data or central‑bank messaging turn more hawkish. ^[47]
A heavy slate of manufacturing PMIs and UK credit data that will shape how investors view the health of global industry and the domestic cycle as the year moves into its final weeks. ^[48]

For traders and longer‑term investors alike, the opening hour in London is likely to hinge on:

How FTSE futures trade into the open;
Any fresh political headlines on the Budget and FCA;
Overnight China PMI surprises; and
The tone of sterling and gilts as UK data hit the tape.

Important note

This article is for information and news purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a prediction of future market performance. Markets can move quickly, and prices, yields and economic data mentioned here may change before the UK stock market opens. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making trading or investment decisions.

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