Gold Price Today, November 30, 2025: XAU/USD Near $4,230 as Markets Bet on Fed Cuts and 2026 Record Highs

Gold is ending November on a roar, not a whisper.

On Sunday, November 30, 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,220–$4,230 per ounce, hovering just below its October record highs above $4,380 and capping one of its strongest years since the late 1970s. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into today’s gold price, the forces driving the market, and what major banks and analysts expect for 2026.

Key Takeaways

Gold price today: Live spot prices are around $4,230/oz in early U.S. trade, up roughly 1–2% on the day and within striking distance of all‑time highs. ^[2]
Huge year‑to‑date rally: Gold is up more than 50% in 2025, one of its best annual gains since 1979, driven by rate‑cut expectations, persistent inflation worries, and geopolitical risk. ^[3]
Central banks & Tether buying: Central banks have added hundreds of tonnes of gold this year, while stablecoin issuer Tether has become one of the largest single private holders, with around 116 tonnes, amplifying the rally. ^[4]
Wall Street outlook: Major institutions such as Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America now see gold staying above $4,000 in 2026, with several forecasts clustering between $4,400 and $5,000 per ounce. ^[5]
Near‑term sentiment: Short‑term surveys show most professional and retail traders expect higher prices in the week ahead, as markets watch a key U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and a wave of delayed economic data. ^[6]

Gold Price Today: Global Snapshot on November 30, 2025

Spot and futures

Global spot price:
Gold spot is quoted near $4,220–$4,230 per troy ounce on Sunday, based on live bullion pricing and international market feeds. ^[7]
Recent range:
In the last few sessions, XAU/USD has traded roughly between $4,150 and $4,230, putting the metal within 3–4% of its mid‑October record peak around $4,381/oz. ^[8]
One‑year performance:
Over the past 12 months, gold is up about 59%, with a 52‑week trading range from roughly $2,580 to $4,380 per ounce. ^[9]

Local market snapshots

Today’s move is global, but it shows up differently in local currencies:

Vietnam: Domestic gold bar prices jumped by roughly 700,000 VND per tael overnight across major brands such as SJC, DOJI and PNJ, with retail prices approaching 155 million VND/tael as world gold hovers near $4,220/oz. ^[10]
Nepal: Nepal News reports local gold and silver prices have risen again, noting international spot prices around $4,175/oz earlier in the session. ^[11]
Bangladesh & UK: Regional price trackers for Bangladesh and the UK show gold near record local‑currency levels as well, reflecting both the dollar price surge and currency moves. ^[12]

The common thread: whether measured in dollars, rupees, dong or pounds, gold is extremely expensive by historical standards.

Why Is Gold So High in Late 2025?

1. Rate‑cut expectations and bond yields

Gold’s latest leg higher is tightly linked to U.S. interest‑rate expectations:

A Reuters report this week noted that traders now see around an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next meeting, up sharply from about 30% just a week earlier. ^[13]
UBS’s chief investment office expects two more Fed rate cuts by the first quarter of 2026, a backdrop they say remains supportive for both bonds and gold. ^[14]
FXEmpire’s November 30 analysis highlights that the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield has slipped to roughly 4.0%, easing real yields and helping push XAU/USD back toward record territory. ^[15]

Because gold pays no interest, lower real yields and prospects for easier monetary policy make it more attractive relative to bonds and cash.

2. A softer, unstable dollar

The powerful rally has also coincided with a weaker U.S. dollar:

FXEmpire points to a notable decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) over the past year, nearly 6%, making gold cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers and adding fuel to the move above $4,200. ^[16]

If the Fed cuts rates while other central banks lag behind, the dollar could weaken further—a scenario many gold bulls are banking on.

3. Geopolitical tension, fiscal worries and “fiscal dominance”

Big picture, gold is thriving in an era of persistent policy and geopolitical anxiety:

A World Bank analysis estimates that gold prices will have risen around 42% in 2025, the strongest annual gain since the late 1970s, largely on the back of elevated geopolitical risk and a weaker dollar. ^[17]
Reuters commentary notes that the 2025 surge—up roughly 56% year‑to‑date at the time of writing—is tied to concerns about high public debt, loose fiscal policy, and a loss of confidence in traditional “hard” currencies. ^[18]
A prolonged U.S. government shutdown and repeated fiscal standoffs have further boosted demand for safe‑haven assets, with analysts in Economic Times arguing that gold’s resilience above $4,100/oz reflects investor nerves over political and fiscal uncertainty. ^[19]

4. Central bank gold buying – still strong

Central banks have been persistent net buyers:

The World Gold Council’s 2025 central bank survey shows more reserve managers now actively managing their gold holdings (44% vs 37% in 2024), citing risk management and diversification as key motives. ^[20]
A Bloomberg‑reported WGC update estimates 220 tonnes of gold were bought in the third quarter alone, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, with Kazakhstan the largest single buyer and Brazil returning to the market. Full‑year 2025 purchases are projected at 750–900 tonnes. ^[21]
An analysis on Medium calculates that central banks have accumulated about 634 tonnes so far in 2025, above the pre‑2022 annual average of 400–500 tonnes, even if slightly below the record pace of the last three years. ^[22]

Large sovereign buyers provide a structural floor under demand—especially when they keep buying even at record prices.

5. The Tether factor: crypto meets bullion

One of the most eye‑catching 2025 storylines is the emergence of Tether as a major player:

Reuters reports that by the end of Q3 2025, Tether—issuer of the USDT stablecoin and gold‑backed token XAUt—held around 116 tonnes of gold, roughly $14 billion at prevailing prices. ^[23]
Jefferies estimates that Tether’s gold purchases exceeded official central‑bank buying over two consecutive quarters, accounting for roughly 12–14% of central‑bank‑equivalent demand during that period. ^[24]

That mix of sovereign buyers, ETF inflows, and now large crypto‑linked demand has tightened physical supply and magnified every macro tailwind.

What Are Major Banks Forecasting for Gold in 2026?

While no one can predict prices with certainty, there’s an unusually bullish consensus among large financial institutions and research houses.

Deutsche Bank: $4,450 in 2026

In a November 26 note referenced by Reuters, Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450/oz from $4,000, citing stabilizing investor flows and continued central‑bank buying. ^[25]

Morgan Stanley: Dip as a buying opportunity, $4,500 by mid‑2026

A fresh forecast published November 30 says Morgan Stanley views recent pullbacks as a buying opportunity, targeting around $4,500 per ounce by mid‑2026.
The bank notes a shift toward real assets as investors search for hedges against inflation and macro uncertainty, and lists the current spot price near $4,219.53/oz as a reference point. ^[26]

Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and others: New highs ahead

A Goldman‑sponsored poll highlighted by Mining.com finds that institutional investors largely expect gold to reach new highs in 2026, with some scenarios pointing above current records. ^[27]
J.P. Morgan Research projects average prices of roughly $3,675/oz in Q4 2025, rising toward $4,000 by mid‑2026, underpinned by central‑bank and investor demand. ^[28]
A Business Insider survey of top Wall Street forecasters suggests gold could climb another 20% in 2026, with targets around $4,500–$5,000 per ounce as rate cuts, central‑bank buying and private demand remain strong. ^[29]
Investopedia notes that several experts now openly discuss the possibility of $5,000 gold in 2026, pointing to persistent fiscal deficits, robust central‑bank demand and lingering geopolitical risks as key drivers. ^[30]

Longer‑term structural views

Asset manager Amundi describes the current environment as a “gold beyond records” phase, highlighting more than $26 billion of inflows into physically backed gold ETFs in Q3 2025—the strongest quarter on record—and arguing that this may mark a structural shift in reserve management and asset allocation. ^[31]
VanEck similarly frames 2025 as the start of a new era of “structural strength” for gold, seeing central‑bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar and projecting that gold could reach $5,000/oz by 2030 if current trends persist. ^[32]

Put simply, most mainstream forecasts now assume gold stays above $4,000 and has room to grind higher, even if short‑term volatility remains extreme.

Near‑Term Outlook: What to Watch in December 2025

Fed meeting, U.S. data and India’s RBI in focus

A cluster of macro events could inject fresh volatility in the coming days:

FXEmpire’s November 30 outlook notes that traders have sharply increased bets on a December Fed rate cut, helping lift XAU/USD back to around $4,216 and near resistance levels in the low $4,200s. ^[33]
In India, LiveMint reports that domestic gold prices are likely to remain firm or rise next week as investors focus on both the U.S. Fed policy meeting and the Reserve Bank of India’s MPC decision, with a weaker rupee and ongoing wedding‑season demand adding local support. ^[34]
Vietnamese coverage cites Kitco data showing world prices near $4,220/oz and highlights that 79% of surveyed Wall Street analysts and 70% of retail investors expect gold to rise again next week. ^[35]

In other words, short‑term sentiment is firmly bullish, but it hinges on how dovish the Fed sounds and how incoming data—on jobs, inflation and activity—shapes expectations for 2026.

Technical picture: Key levels traders are watching

DailyForex notes that after reclaiming the $4,000 psychological level, gold has moved back into a neutral‑to‑bullish technical zone, with near‑term upside targets around $4,055 and $4,120, and downside support near $3,880. ^[36]
Economic Times points to a resistance band between $4,125 and $4,193, with a potential breakout path toward $4,252 and a retest of the $4,356–$4,382 2025 highs if momentum holds. ^[37]

With prices already near those resistance levels as of November 30, even modest surprises in macro data could trigger sharp moves in either direction.

Risks That Could Challenge the Gold Rally

Despite the bullish consensus, several downside risks loom:

Stronger‑than‑expected economic data
- If U.S. employment, wage growth or inflation rebound, markets may scale back rate‑cut expectations, lifting real yields and pressuring gold lower.
A resurgent U.S. dollar
- A renewed dollar rally—perhaps driven by relative U.S. strength or renewed risk aversion in emerging markets—would make gold more expensive outside the U.S. and could trigger profit‑taking.
Central‑bank or Tether demand cooling
- WGC data already show central‑bank buying moderating from 2023’s record pace, even if it remains elevated by historical standards. ^[38]
- Any shift by Tether or other large players to reduce gold holdings could release supply back into the market and dent sentiment. ^[39]
Positioning and leverage
- After a 50%+ annual gain, speculative positioning is heavy. That leaves the market vulnerable to sudden deleveraging, where a modest price drop snowballs into a bigger sell‑off as leveraged traders exit.

For now, most banks still frame any sizable pullbacks as corrections within a longer‑term uptrend, but these risks underscore how quickly the narrative could change.

How Investors and Savers Are Responding

Retail sentiment is heavily bullish

As noted in the Kitco survey summarized by Vietnamese media:

Around 79% of participating Wall Street analysts expect gold to rise next week.
Roughly 70% of 260 retail respondents are also bullish, with only a small minority expecting prices to fall. ^[40]

That kind of one‑sided sentiment can sometimes precede short‑term pullbacks, even if the longer‑term trend remains up.

ETF and bar/coin demand

Amundi points out that physically backed gold ETFs saw their strongest quarter on record in Q3 2025, with inflows around $26 billion, showing that institutional and wealth‑management demand remains strong despite high prices. ^[41]
Local press in countries like India, Nepal and Vietnam report steady demand for jewellery, bars and rings, supported by cultural buying patterns, festivals and weddings, even as prices test all‑time highs in local currency terms. ^[42]

What Today’s Gold Price Means for You

Whether the next big move is another breakout or a sharp correction, today’s price tells us a few things:

Gold is already pricing in a lot of good news for bulls: lower future interest rates, continued central‑bank buying, persistent geopolitical risk and ongoing demand from investors and even crypto platforms.
At these levels, the metal is likely to remain highly volatile. Daily swings of 1–3%—equivalent to $40–$120 per ounce—have become normal in 2025. ^[43]
Many institutional forecasts see more upside into 2026, but the path there may be bumpy, with pullbacks of several hundred dollars per ounce entirely possible along the way. ^[44]

If you’re an individual saver or investor, it’s important to remember that:

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Decisions about buying, selling or holding gold should be made in light of your own financial situation, risk tolerance and, ideally, with input from a qualified financial adviser.