Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Outlook Before December 1, 2025 Market Open: AI Catalysts, Alphawave Deal and Analyst Forecasts

Data and prices in this article refer to the U.S. market close on Friday, November 28, 2025, unless otherwise noted, and reflect news and forecasts published between November 28–30, 2025.

Quick snapshot before Monday’s bell

• Last close: Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) ended Friday, November 28, around $168 per share, up about 1.8% on the day and roughly 3–4% below its level 10 trading days ago. ^[1]
• Position in range: The stock sits about 20% under its recent 52‑week high of $205.95 and well above its $120.80 low, putting it in the middle of its yearly range as December begins. ^[2]
• Fundamentals: Q4 FY2025 revenue grew about 10–14% year over year to roughly $11.27 billion, and non‑GAAP EPS came in at $3.00, beating Wall Street estimates, even as a one‑off tax charge produced a GAAP loss. ^[3]
• Big themes right now:
  • Closing the $2.4 billion Alphawave AI connectivity acquisition after Korean regulatory approval. ^[4]
  • A new AI Engineering Center in Riyadh to support data‑center and AI initiatives. ^[5]
  • Ongoing rollout of AI200/AI250 data‑center hardware, Dragonwing IQ‑X industrial PCs, and Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 / 8 Elite Gen 5 mobile SoCs. TS2+1
• Street view: Most analyst aggregators still show a “Moderate Buy” or “Buy” consensus with average 12‑month price targets around $186–$192, implying mid‑teens upside from current levels. ^[6]
• Quant signals for early December: Short‑term algorithmic models are split: one popular technical service flags QCOM as a “Strong Sell” on near‑term momentum, while others see a bullish technical profile and only small expected moves around the current price into the first week of December. ^[7]

With U.S. markets set to reopen Monday, December 1, investors are weighing whether Qualcomm’s AI expansion, M&A pipeline and valuation justify re‑rating the stock back toward its late‑October highs—or whether recent gains and technical warnings argue for caution.

1. Where Qualcomm stock stands heading into December 1

Price, range and relative performance

On the final trading day of November, QCOM closed near $168.09, gaining 1.79% on Friday as it moved between an intraday low of about $164.13 and a high around $168.19 on volume just over 5 million shares. ^[8] Over the last ten sessions, the stock is still down roughly 3.7%, reflecting a modest consolidation after a big AI‑driven rally earlier in the autumn. ^[9]

Across the last year:

• QCOM is about 20–21% below its 52‑week high of $205.95 set in late October. ^[10]
• It has gained only low‑single‑digit percentages over the past 12 months, trailing the Nasdaq Composite’s roughly 20%+ advance over the same period. ^[11]
• Depending on whether you include dividends, year‑to‑date total return is in the mid‑single‑ to high‑single‑digit range—respectable, but noticeably behind the broader tech benchmark. ^[12]

Despite that underperformance, valuation remains moderate for a large AI‑exposed chip name: recent MarketBeat data puts Qualcomm’s market cap around $180 billion, with a P/E near 16, PEG ratio around 2.6, and beta around 1.26, underlining that the stock still trades more like a diversified semiconductor name than a high‑flying AI pure play. ^[13]

2. Key news from November 28–30: Alphawave, AI expansion and the Riyadh center

The news flow between November 28 and 30 centers on Qualcomm’s AI infrastructure strategy and M&A execution, giving investors fresh context before Monday’s open.

Alphawave: $2.4 billion AI connectivity deal crosses final regulatory hurdles

Late‑November coverage confirms that Qualcomm now has all major regulatory approvals for its planned $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave IP Group (Alphawave Semi), a UK‑listed specialist in high‑speed wired connectivity and custom silicon for data centers. ^[14]

Key points highlighted in TipRanks’ M&A coverage and follow‑up analysis: ^[15]

• South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission granted approval, described as the last big regulatory hurdle after green lights from the U.S., UK, Germany, Canada and others.
• Qualcomm expects to close the deal in December, pending final UK court procedures.
• Alphawave brings SerDes and high‑speed interconnect IP, plus chiplet and custom ASIC expertise, which are increasingly critical for AI data‑center and networking chips.
• Qualcomm has articulated an ambition to grow non‑handset revenue to about $22 billion by fiscal 2029, implying >20% compound annual growth from roughly $8.3 billion last year; Alphawave is positioned as a key enabler of that plan. ^[16]

A November 30 deep‑dive from TS2 and others also notes a $20 million unsecured bridge loan from Qualcomm to Alphawave, at Term SOFR + 2.75%, designed to keep the target’s balance sheet in good shape while regulators finish their work. If the deal falls apart, the loan must be repaid by a specified “long stop” date, underscoring Qualcomm’s commitment but also highlighting execution risk. TS2

New AI Engineering Center in Riyadh

A November 30 analysis from Simply Wall St flags Qualcomm’s new AI Engineering Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, positioning it as part of the company’s broader pivot toward AI and data‑center computing. ^[17]

That move aligns with:

• Qualcomm’s AI200/AI250 rack‑scale data‑center platforms, unveiled in late October and targeting efficient AI inference at scale; and TS2
• A large initial customer commitment from Saudi‑backed AI company Humain, which analysts estimate could equate to roughly $2 billion in AI hardware revenue over time starting in 2026. TS2

For Monday’s open, investors will be watching for any additional details or follow‑through announcements around Middle East AI deployments—especially given the region’s appetite for large‑scale AI infrastructure.

Arduino and Dragonwing: Seeding the edge‑AI ecosystem

Recent coverage, capped by TS2’s November 30 article, continues to emphasize two other strategic steps that remain front‑of‑mind as December begins: TS2+1

• Arduino acquisition:
  • Qualcomm is acquiring Arduino, the open‑source electronics platform with an estimated 33 million active users, giving it direct access to a vast developer community in IoT, robotics and embedded systems. TS2
  • The first joint board, Arduino UNO Q, combines a Qualcomm Dragonwing processor with a traditional microcontroller, running Linux plus real‑time code and designed for lightweight vision and audio AI at the edge. TS2
• Dragonwing IQ‑X industrial PCs:
  • The new Dragonwing IQ‑X series uses a 4 nm Oryon CPU with integrated NPU delivering roughly 45 TOPS of AI performance, in rugged, extended‑temperature designs for factories, logistics and energy infrastructure. TS2
  • Early OEM partners include prominent industrial‑computing vendors, signalling Qualcomm’s ambition to challenge x86 incumbents in industrial PCs. TS2

Altogether, the late‑November narrative is that Qualcomm is simultaneously building an AI stack from data center to industrial edge to hobbyist developers—a story that will heavily influence how the market prices QCOM as we head into 2026.

3. Fundamentals in focus: Q4 beat, GAAP loss and 2026 guidance

Although the quarterly results came earlier in November, nearly all late‑November commentary references them as the fundamental backdrop for Monday’s trade.

Q4 FY2025: strong top‑line, one‑off tax hit

According to RTT News and multiple analyst recaps, Qualcomm’s Q4 FY2025 looked like this: ^[18]

• Revenue: about $11.27 billion, up roughly 10% YoY, above analyst expectations around $10.7–$10.8 billion.
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.00, beating consensus of ~$2.87.
• GAAP results: A net loss of ~$3.1 billion (‑$2.89 per share), driven by an estimated $5.7 billion non‑cash tax charge tied to U.S. tax law changes.
• Full‑year FY2025: Revenue near $44.28 billion, up about 14% YoY, while GAAP EPS fell to roughly $5.01 from $8.97 in 2024 due to that tax effect.

Segment detail highlighted by Barchart and other sources reinforces the diversification story: QCT (the chip segment) delivered roughly $9.8 billion in quarterly revenue, with handsets up ~14%, automotive up mid‑teens to high‑teens, and IoT up high‑single digits. ^[19]

Forward guidance: double‑digit earnings power, but smartphone share shifts

For Q1 FY2026, Qualcomm guided to: TS2+1

• Revenue:$11.8–$12.6 billion (midpoint ~$12.2 billion), above Wall Street’s prior expectations.
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.30–$3.50, again ahead of consensus near $3.31.

However, management also indicated that its modem share at Samsung is expected to fall to roughly 75% in the upcoming Galaxy S26 line, from 100% in the current S25 generation, while Apple continues moving some iPhone models to in‑house modems. TS2+1

That mix shift, combined with ongoing regulatory scrutiny in major markets (including a Chinese antitrust probe related to the Autotalks acquisition), remains a key risk factor that traders may revisit as they position for early‑December sessions. ^[20]

4. Who’s buying (and selling): institutional flows and insider activity

Institutions ramp up exposure

Several November 29–30 filings and write‑ups show large institutional investors increasing their Qualcomm stakes:

• Mackenzie Financial Corp boosted its QCOM holdings by 122.1% in Q2, ending with 852,373 shares worth around $135.75 million, or about 0.08% of the company. ^[21]
• Railway Pension Investments Ltd increased its position by 279.9%, to 168,300 shares valued near $26.8 million. ^[22]
• Both articles note that institutional investors collectively own roughly 74% of Qualcomm’s float, a high figure even among mega‑cap tech stocks. ^[23]

TS2’s November 28–30 coverage also highlights: TS2+2TS2+2

• A ~1.6% stake by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund (Norges Bank).
• Significant holdings by Vanguard, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Invesco and others, some of which have recently added to positions.

Some trimming—and notable insider sales

Not all flows are one‑way:

• The New York State Common Retirement Fund disclosed a 2.4% reduction in its QCOM stake, selling 36,026 shares but still holding about 1.44 million shares (roughly 0.13% of the company). ^[24]

On the insider front, multiple late‑November articles emphasize that management has been net sellers over the last quarter: ^[25]

• CEO Cristiano Amon sold 150,000 shares on October 1 at an average price near $165.56, for proceeds around $24.8 million, cutting his stake roughly in half.
• CFO Akash Palkhiwala sold 3,333 shares in early November for about $567,000.
• In total, insiders sold about 167,791 shares (~$27.8 million) over the past 90 days, leaving insiders with around 0.08% of outstanding shares.

While insider selling doesn’t automatically signal trouble—executives often diversify their personal holdings—this pattern is one element short‑term traders may weigh against the rising institutional ownership and positive AI narrative.

5. How Wall Street and valuation models see QCOM now

Analyst ratings and price targets

Across late‑November sources, the headline view remains constructive:

• MarketBeat’s November 29 recap reports one Strong Buy, 13 Buy, nine Hold and one Sell rating, yielding an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target around $190.38. ^[26]
• Barchart notes 29 analysts covering QCOM with a mean target near $192.36, implying ~18% upside from current levels. ^[27]
• StockAnalysis shows several target hikes on November 6 following Q4 earnings:
  • UBS: Hold, target raised $175 → $185.
  • Wells Fargo: Sell/Underweight, target raised $140 → $165.
  • Piper Sandler: Buy/Overweight, $175 → $200.
  • Mizuho: Buy, $185 → $200.
  • Rosenblatt: Strong Buy, target $225. ^[28]

Public.com’s forecast page similarly aggregates 17 analysts with a consensus “Buy” rating and an average 2025 price prediction around $186.94, again suggesting mid‑teens upside from Friday’s close. ^[29]

Valuation perspectives: modest upside, not a screaming bargain

Several late‑November valuation models give QCOM room to run, but not unlimited headroom:

• Simply Wall St calculates a fair value of about $191.80 per share—roughly 12% above the recent close—and labels the shares “12.4% undervalued”, citing rapid growth expectations in automotive and industrial IoT, with a combined $22 billion non‑handset revenue target by 2029. ^[30]
• Barchart points out that despite AI‑related excitement, QCOM has lagged the Nasdaq over 3‑, 12‑ and year‑to‑date horizons even as the consensus price target implies nearly 18% upside. ^[31]
• Danelfin, an AI‑driven analytics platform, assigns Qualcomm an AI Score of 5/10 (Hold) and estimates an average analyst price‑target upside of about 14.7% over 12 months, reflecting a balanced risk‑reward profile. ^[32]

In other words, the Street generally likes Qualcomm as an AI‑leveraged compounder, but not so much that it’s willing to slap a pure‑play AI premium on the stock—at least not yet.

6. Quant and technical models: mixed signals into Monday’s open

Short‑term trading setups into December 1 look very different depending on which quantitative lens you use.

Bearish tilt from one technical model

Intellectia’s November 28–30 technical report on QCOM is notably cautious: ^[33]

• The service labels Qualcomm a “Strong Sell candidate” based on a combination of momentum, MACD and short‑selling indicators.
• It estimates:
  • 1‑day prediction: ~$166.76 (‑0.79% versus $168.09).
  • 1‑week prediction: ~$168.33 (‑0.88%).
  • 1‑month prediction: ~$165.33 (‑1.64%).
• The model notes the stock has fallen 3.67% over the last 10 days, with three bearish vs one bullish key technical signals, and mentions a short‑sale ratio around 20.45% of daily volume as of November 25, suggesting short sellers are active.

Despite this, Intellectia also observes that medium‑ and long‑term moving averages remain constructive, with the 20‑day above the 60‑day and the 60‑day above the 200‑day, implying a longer‑term uptrend that’s currently consolidating. ^[34]

Bullish bias from another quantitative forecast

CoinCodex, by contrast, shows a bullish overall technical sentiment as of late afternoon on November 30: ^[35]

• 21 out of 26 indicators are flagged as bullish, 5 as bearish.
• Its short‑term price path projects QCOM at about $168.09 on December 1 (flat vs current), then a drift lower toward $162–$163 over the following days.
• For December 2025, it expects QCOM to trade in a broad $162.61–$172.57 channel with an average price of $168.31, implying only about 2.7% annual return versus today’s levels.

These algorithmic forecasts should be treated with caution—they are model‑driven, sensitive to inputs, and often miss real‑world catalysts—but they do reinforce the idea that volatility may remain contained near the high‑$160s to low‑$170s unless new information breaks the current stalemate.

7. Risks and catalysts traders will watch around the open

Heading into the December 1 session, several themes are likely to guide how investors treat Qualcomm on any early‑morning moves:

1. Delivery on AI infrastructure ambitions
   • Can Qualcomm convert AI200/AI250 hype and early wins like the Humain deployment into repeatable, large‑scale revenue by 2026–2027? TS2+1
   • Does the Alphawave acquisition close smoothly in December, and how quickly can connectivity IP be integrated into Qualcomm’s broader data‑center products? ^[36]
2. Smartphone cycle and customer concentration
   • How much will Samsung modem share dropping from 100% to ~75% in the next Galaxy cycle weigh on investor sentiment? TS2+1
   • Will Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 and 8 Elite Gen 5, plus new design wins at OEMs like OnePlus, Vivo and Motorola, offset any unit softness or ASP pressure in 2026? TS2+1
3. Regulatory scrutiny and M&A risk
   • The Chinese Autotalks antitrust investigation shows that even relatively small acquisitions can draw attention in strategic sectors like automotive and semiconductors, potentially impacting Qualcomm’s broader operations in China. ^[37]
   • Ongoing legal jousting with Arm over licensing frameworks, along with Qualcomm’s own history of competition probes, means regulatory headlines could still surprise. TS2
4. Valuation vs. AI peers
   • Comparing QCOM’s mid‑teens P/E and modest YTD performance with high‑multiple AI leaders like Nvidia and AMD, some investors see Qualcomm as a cheaper AI‑leveraged name, while others worry it’s trapped between legacy smartphone exposure and higher‑growth rivals. ^[38]
5. Dividend and capital returns
   • Qualcomm’s $0.89 quarterly dividend (annualized yield around 2.1%) and ongoing buybacks provide a cushion for long‑term shareholders, but insiders cashing out tens of millions of dollars in stock may temper enthusiasm among short‑term traders. ^[39]

8. Takeaways for investors ahead of the December 1, 2025 open

Going into Monday’s session, Qualcomm looks like a story of solid fundamentals plus big AI optionality, priced at a discount to its recent peak but not at fire‑sale levels:

• Core business: Q4 results and FY2025 numbers suggest that Qualcomm still generates robust cash flow and double‑digit non‑GAAP earnings power, even with GAAP noise from tax charges. ^[40]
• Growth vectors: Alphawave, AI200/AI250, Dragonwing IQ‑X and Arduino collectively sketch a path where data‑center AI, automotive and IoT could become much larger contributors by the end of the decade. TS2+2TipRanks+2
• Valuation: Most fundamental models and analyst targets imply mid‑teens upside from current prices, but not a dramatic re‑rating unless AI initiatives gain visible traction. ^[41]
• Technical picture: Near‑term technical and algorithmic signals are mixed—one model calls QCOM a strong short‑term sell, another sees broadly bullish indicators and only a slight drift lower over the coming days. ^[42]

For traders and longer‑term investors alike, the pre‑market narrative on December 1 is likely to revolve around whether Qualcomm can convert its AI storyline into sustained revenue growth while managing smartphone cyclicality and regulatory risk. Any fresh headlines on Alphawave closing, new AI customer wins, or regulatory developments could easily tip sentiment in either direction at the open.

This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investing in equities, including Qualcomm stock, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

References

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