Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS), the Amsterdam‑based AI‑infrastructure specialist, heads into the new trading week around $94–95 per share, up well over 200% in 2025 but still about 30% below its recent 52‑week high of $141.10. [1]
From 28–30 November 2025, the stock was at the center of a fresh wave of analyst notes, hedge‑fund filings and opinion pieces that sharpened the bull and bear cases ahead of the Monday, 1 December 2025 U.S. market open.
Key takeaways before the 1 December 2025 open
- Last close & volatility: NBIS closed at $94.87 on Friday, 28 November (after‑hours ~$95.00), with about 6 million shares traded and a 52‑week range of $18.31–$141.10. [2]
- YTD surge, sharp pullback: Shares are up roughly 240–300% year‑to‑date, yet sit about 30% below October’s peak after a violent AI‑infrastructure sell‑off in November. [3]
- Mega AI contracts: Nebius now has two giant, multi‑year AI‑compute deals — roughly $17–19B with Microsoft and $3B with Meta — plus Q3 revenue growth of 355% year‑on‑year to $146.1 million. [4]
- Q3 still loss‑making: Despite a sharply narrower adjusted loss, GAAP net loss exceeded $100–120 million in Q3 as Nebius poured nearly $1 billion into GPUs, land and power. [5]
- Street still bullish: As of 28–30 November, 11 brokerages tracked by MarketBeat rate NBIS a “Buy” on average, with a consensus 12‑month price target around $144.7 — roughly 50% upside from current levels. Individual targets run as high as $211. [6]
- Institutions buying the dip: New or increased positions from funds including Dilation Capital, Corsair Capital, Elevation Point, Pursue Wealth Partners and others highlight active institutional interest, even as some large holders (e.g. Legal & General) take profits. [7]
- Narrative split 28–30 Nov: New analysis ranges from “could double your money” and “lifetime opportunity” to “AI dreams and borrowed billions” and concerns about capital‑intensive growth and financing risk. [8]
Below is a structured look at price action, news, analysis and forecasts from 28–30 November 2025, plus how Nebius is positioned heading into Monday’s open.
1. Nebius stock price snapshot before the 1 December 2025 open
Quote & trading context
- Last regular close (Fri, 28 Nov 2025):
- $94.87, up 0.19% on the day. [9]
- After‑hours:
- Around $95.00, adding another ~0.14%. [10]
- Volume: ~6.0 million shares, below the recent frenzied trading peaks but still elevated versus longer‑term averages. [11]
- 52‑week range:$18.31 (low) – $141.10 (high). [12]
- Market cap: Roughly $23–24 billion at current prices. [13]
- Volatility: Beta around 3.3, making NBIS several times more volatile than the broader U.S. market. [14]
Valuation snapshot
Different data providers treat Nebius’s still‑negative earnings differently, but they all agree the stock is priced for aggressive growth:
- MarketBeat shows a negative GAAP P/E near -120, reflecting continued losses. [15]
- Some retail platforms show a triple‑digit positive P/E based on adjusted metrics, but in practice Nebius remains loss‑making on a GAAP basis, so simple P/E is of limited use right now. [16]
2. Round‑up of Nebius news, analysis and forecasts (28–30 November 2025)
2.1. 28 November: Consensus “Buy”, fresh dip‑buying and a leverage warning
Analyst & quant views
- MarketBeat – consensus “Buy”:
A widely‑cited MarketBeat note on 28 November reports that 11 brokerages cover Nebius, with 2 “Strong Buy”, 7 “Buy” and 2 “Hold” ratings, for an overall “Buy” consensus. The average 12‑month target price is $144.71, implying roughly 50% upside from Friday’s close. [17] - TipRanks – 2026 rally thesis:
A TipRanks feature titled “Is Nebius Stock (NBIS) Set for Another Big Rally in 2026? Analysts Say Yes” highlights that Nebius shares are up over 240% year‑to‑date and argues that its smaller size and focus allow it to adapt faster than hyperscale rivals, with heavy R&D and strong customer feedback underpinning the bullish case. [18] - Seeking Alpha – “Gross profit could 50x”:
Another widely shared piece, “Nebius Stock To Surge As Gross Profit Could 50x”, points to 355% revenue growth, 70%+ gross margins, and effectively “sold‑out” compute capacity thanks to Microsoft and Meta contracts. The author rates NBIS a Buy and models very large long‑term upside if the company can scale efficiently. [19]
Institutional flows
28 November filings show a mix of profit‑taking and accumulation:
- Legal & General Group Plc cut its stake by 26.8%, selling 155,048 shares but still holding about 0.18% of Nebius (~424,000 shares worth $23.5m). [20]
- Corsair Capital Management increased its position by 14.9%, adding 5,000 shares to reach 38,509 shares (about 0.4% of the fund’s portfolio). [21]
- Elevation Point Wealth Partners boosted its holdings by 131.8% to 35,620 shares, valued just under $2 million. [22]
Taken together — along with prior buying by Danske Bank and CIBC — these moves help lift institutional ownership to roughly 22%. [23]
“Is Nebius a buy?” – mixed Retail sentiment
- A Motley Fool piece titled “Is Nebius a Buy?” points out the tension between triple‑digit revenue growth and wide losses. It notes that Nebius’s business model requires aggressive capital expenditure and flags short‑seller Michael Burry’s concern that AI players may underestimate how quickly GPUs will need to be depreciated. For risk‑tolerant investors, the article says Nebius can make sense, but stresses the speculative, high‑risk nature of the stock. [24]
- GuruFocus counters the bullish chatter with “Nebius: The Company Built on AI Dreams and Borrowed Billions”, highlighting the heavy reliance on external financing, including multi‑billion‑dollar equity and convertible offerings, and warning that the business needs perfect execution to justify its debt and valuation. [25]
Benzinga – 30% off the highs, but growth intact
A Benzinga article summarised widely under headlines like “Nebius Dropped 30% From Highs — But Its Growth Story Didn’t” stresses that NBIS, despite closing up 6.5% on 26 November at $94.69, remains roughly 30% below its $141.10 52‑week high. The author frames the drawdown as potential mispricing of a “fastest‑scaling AI platform,” pointing to the Meta and Microsoft deals and the autonomous‑driving unit Avride as long‑term growth levers. [26]
2.2. 29 November: “Lifetime opportunity” vs. AI bubble worries
On Saturday the debate intensified, even with markets closed.
Bullish narratives
- Motley Fool – “Why Nebius Stock Rallied This Week”:
This recap notes that Nebius shares bounced about 14% in the latest week, even though they remain nearly 30% below recent highs. The article contrasts investors who fear AI capex will fail to generate adequate returns with those who believe the AI “arms race” is still in early innings; it concludes that “AI bulls won out this week” as dip‑buyers stepped in. [27] - Seeking Alpha – “This decline might be a lifetime opportunity”:
A separate analysis argues that NBIS’s roughly 30% correction from mid‑October levels has not changed the fundamental story. The author emphasises the $19.4B Microsoft contract and ~$3B Meta deal as a backlog that already secures a large portion of the growth needed to justify today’s valuation, suggesting Nebius may even be undervalued by more than 100% if execution continues. [28]
More cautious voices
- AInvest – funding and execution risk:
A note titled along the lines of “Why Nebius Stock Rallied: Partnership Impact and Cash Flow Considerations” praises the Meta deal as a revenue anchor but flags that Nebius is running an at‑the‑market (ATM) equity program and will likely need to keep tapping capital markets to fund its enormous capex plan. It raises questions about regulatory compliance and platform execution as Nebius moves into more regions. [29] - Macro‑level AI bubble debate:
A wider Seeking Alpha piece, “Why The AI Bubble Isn’t Likely Popping Any Time Soon”, does not focus solely on Nebius but includes NBIS in a high‑conviction basket of AI names (alongside CoreWeave and Meta). The author argues that recent pullbacks represent valuation resets rather than bubble bursts, but cautions that names like Nebius remain high beta and vulnerable to any slowdown in AI spending. [30]
Institutional update
- Pursue Wealth Partners LLC disclosed a new stake in Nebius on 29 November, another data point showing that fresh capital is still coming into the name even after the post‑earnings drop. [31]
2.3. 30 November: Hedge‑fund buying, “double your money” talk and guru scores
With U.S. markets closed on Sunday, the narrative shifted to positioning and medium‑term forecasts.
TS2.Tech – weekend wrap on Meta, Microsoft and hedge funds
A detailed TS2.Tech update titled “Nebius Group N.V. Stock (NBIS) Today: Meta Deal, Microsoft Contract and Hedge Fund Buying – 30 November 2025 Update” pulls together several strands: Reuters+3TS2 Tech+3TS2 Tech+3
- YTD performance of >240%, but about 30% below the 52‑week high.
- Confirmation of the multi‑year Microsoft and Meta AI‑infra contracts as the core of the growth story.
- Fresh 13F filings showing yet another hedge fund building a meaningful new position in NBIS.
- The central debate: is Nebius a levered AI bubble stock, or a long‑term compounder with contracted revenue visibility?
MarketBeat – Dilation Capital and institutional ownership
On the same day, MarketBeat reported that Dilation Capital Management LP initiated an $4.47 million position (80,790 shares), making Nebius its 18th‑largest holding and about 2.4% of the fund’s portfolio. The article also lists major new positions at Orbis Allan Gray (~$331m), Accel Leaders (~$96.7m) and Invesco (~$73.8m), and reiterates that institutions now control about 21.9% of outstanding shares. [32]
Motley Fool – “This AI infrastructure play could double your money”
A new Motley Fool commentary — “This AI Infrastructure Play Could Double Your Money” — singles out Nebius as a potential multi‑bagger for investors who can tolerate high volatility. The article leans heavily on: [33]
- The Microsoft and Meta mega‑contracts, which collectively represent tens of billions of dollars in potential revenue over several years.
- Nebius’s fast‑growing AI cloud platform and the new Nebius Token Factory product, which lets customers run open‑source models (Llama, Qwen, DeepSeek, etc.) at scale with sub‑second latency. [34]
- Management’s ambitious guidance for revenue run‑rate in 2026, which, if achieved, could move profitability and cash‑flow metrics sharply higher. [35]
The piece, however, stresses that the path will be bumpy and that Nebius is not a widows‑and‑orphans stock; drawdowns of 30–50% remain very possible.
Validea “guru” momentum score
Validea’s “Guru Fundamental Report for NBIS” (30 November) rates Nebius at 83% on a Wesley Gray–style quantitative momentum model, which looks for strong and consistent intermediate‑term performance. It classifies Nebius as a large‑cap growth stock in computer services, with the high score signalling that the model sees NBIS as an attractive momentum name despite recent pullbacks. [36]
3. Fundamental backdrop: Q3 2025 results and mega AI deals
To make sense of the late‑November commentary, it helps to anchor on Nebius’s latest financials and contracts.
Business model
Nebius is a Dutch technology company that provides full‑stack AI infrastructure: GPU‑rich data centers, AI‑centric cloud services, and developer tools. It also owns autonomous‑driving startup Avride and ed‑tech platform TripleTen, and has stakes in Toloka and ClickHouse. [37]
Q3 2025 highlights
From the company’s 11 November results release and accompanying coverage: [38]
- Revenue:
- Q3 2025 revenue of $146.1 million, up 355% year‑on‑year and 39% sequentially.
- Nine‑month 2025 revenue of $302.1 million, up 437% vs. the same period in 2024.
- Profitability:
- Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from -$45.9m to -$5.2m year‑on‑year.
- However, GAAP net loss widened to over $100–120m, in part due to heavy depreciation, share‑based compensation and interest expense.
- Capex & capacity:
- Nebius spent around $955m in capex in the quarter, scaling GPU clusters, data‑center capacity and power access to meet demand from hyperscale customers.
- Meta deal:
- Announced a five‑year AI‑infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms worth roughly $3B, providing high‑performance compute over dedicated clusters.
- Microsoft deal:
- This follows the previously announced $17.4–19.4B, five‑year agreement with Microsoft to provide GPU infrastructure services, which sent the stock soaring earlier in 2025. [39]
- ATM equity program:
- At the same time, Nebius launched an at‑the‑market equity program of up to 25 million Class A shares, signalling that ongoing equity issuance is part of its funding plan. [40]
Token Factory and product expansion
Beyond pure capacity, Nebius is trying to move up the stack:
- On 5 November, it launched Nebius Token Factory, an inference platform allowing customers to deploy open‑source models (Llama, DeepSeek, GPT‑OSS, Qwen, Mistral and others) with sub‑second latency and 99.9% uptime, built on Nebius AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”. [41]
- Insider Monkey later framed Token Factory as an attempt to “take on tech giants on open AI models” by offering predictable performance and transparent pricing to enterprises. [42]
For bulls, Token Factory deepens customer lock‑in and adds higher‑margin software‑like revenue on top of the underlying infrastructure.
4. What Wall Street and models are forecasting
4.1. Street ratings and price targets
Across late November, the Street remains broadly positive on Nebius, though price targets have edged down from earlier highs:
- Consensus rating:
- Average 12‑month target:
- Around $144.7 per share, roughly 50% above Friday’s close. [45]
- Key individual targets (recent notes): [46]
- DA Davidson: reiterated Buy, target $150.
- Goldman Sachs:Buy, target $120.
- Northland Securities:Outperform, target $211 after raising on the Microsoft contract.
- Citizens JMP:Market Outperform, target around $175.
- BWS Financial:Buy, target $130.
TipRanks and other aggregators still describe Nebius as having a “strong bullish story”, but recent commentary notes that consensus targets have eased from around $160 to the high‑$150s as analysts factor in financing risk and near‑term volatility. [47]
4.2. Quant, technical and AI‑generated forecasts
- StockInvest technical view:
A recent StockInvest.us update flags a “general sell signal” based on moving averages: the long‑term MA sits above the short‑term MA. The service sees support near $90.48 and resistance around $107.87, warning that a break below the short‑term average would strengthen the bearish signal, while a breakout above the long‑term average would flip the tone to bullish again. [48] - AIStockFinder & similar tools:
AI‑driven forecast sites describe Nebius as a large‑cap, high‑growth tech name with strong momentum and institutional backing, but keep specific 7‑, 30‑ and 90‑day price targets behind paywalls. Public pages emphasise high price‑to‑book multiples (often 20x+) and elevated volatility, underscoring how much future growth is already priced in. [49] - Validea “guru” momentum rating:
As noted earlier, Nebius scores 83% on a quantitative momentum model, indicating that, on intermediate‑term momentum criteria, NBIS still looks attractive despite its recent 30% drawdown. [50]
5. Short‑term setup: What to watch before Monday’s open
No one can reliably predict how NBIS will trade on Monday, 1 December 2025, but the late‑November data points suggest a few key dynamics to watch.
5.1. Technical positioning
- Price vs moving averages:
At roughly $94.9, Nebius trades well below its 50‑day moving average (~$110) but far above its 200‑day (~$75), situating the stock in a mid‑range consolidation zone after the October blow‑off top and November plunge. [51] - Support & resistance:
Short‑term traders are likely eyeing support in the low‑$90s, with the 26–28 November lows in the $90–93 range and the StockInvest support band near $90.48. Immediate resistance sits in the $100–108 area, where the falling 50‑day moving average and previous supply kicked in. [52] - Volatility:
With a beta >3 and recent single‑day swings of 10%+, NBIS can easily move 5–10% in either direction on relatively modest news — a fact both bulls and bears recognise. [53]
5.2. Sentiment drivers to monitor
Going into Monday, the main incremental inputs the market may react to are:
- Follow‑through on institutional flows
- Additional 13F or 13G filings revealing new hedge‑fund or long‑only positions (or exits) could influence sentiment, especially after the Dilation Capital and other Q2/Q3 stakes revealed this weekend. [54]
- Macro and AI‑sector risk appetite
- Nebius often moves with other AI infrastructure names and high‑beta tech. Any Monday headlines about rates, Nvidia, or peers like CoreWeave and IREN could spill over into NBIS, just as earlier AI sell‑offs dragged the stock down 30% from its high. [55]
- Ongoing reaction to Q3 and Token Factory
- Investors are still digesting the Q3 print, the Meta deal, and the launch of Token Factory. Additional commentary from analysts or large customers about actual utilisation, margins, or early Token Factory traction could nudge expectations for 2026 revenue and profitability. [56]
Given these factors, the most plausible near‑term scenario is continued range‑bound trading with high intraday volatility, unless a new contract, downgrade or macro shock appears.
6. Big picture: How the late‑November news reshapes the Nebius story
Putting all the 28–30 November coverage together, several themes emerge:
6.1. The bull case
- Contracted growth: Multi‑billion‑dollar deals with Microsoft (~$17–19B) and Meta (~$3B) give Nebius unusually high visibility into multi‑year revenue, especially relative to its current $300m+ annualised run‑rate. [57]
- Explosive top‑line momentum: Q3 revenue growth of 355% and strong ARR expansion have led some analysts to call Nebius one of the fastest‑growing AI infrastructure plays on the market. [58]
- High margins and “neocloud” positioning: Gross margins above 70% on AI workloads, plus energy‑efficient data centers (reportedly ~20% more power‑efficient than standard facilities), support the idea of a durable economic moat if Nebius can keep utilisation high. [59]
- Product stack expansion: Token Factory and other higher‑level services could tilt the mix toward recurring, software‑like revenue and deepen customer lock‑in. [60]
- Supportive analyst & quant signals: Consensus “Buy” rating, ~50% upside implied by average price target, and strong quant momentum scores all back the view that Nebius can keep compounding if it executes. [61]
6.2. The bear (or cautious) case
- Financing dependence & leverage: GuruFocus’s “borrowed billions” framing, Investor’s Business Daily’s focus on widening net losses, and multiple Seeking Alpha pieces emphasise that Nebius is highly dependent on capital markets to fund its build‑out — via convertible notes, ATM share sales and possibly more debt. [62]
- Execution and utilisation risk: If AI demand slows, or if Meta/Microsoft under‑utilise their contracted capacity, Nebius could end up with oversized, under‑used data centers and limited pricing power. [63]
- Valuation & volatility: Even after the 30% pullback, the stock trades at a very high multiple of current revenue and non‑GAAP metrics, with a beta above 3 and regular double‑digit daily moves. Critics like Jim Cramer publicly call Nebius “too speculative” and point investors to more established names. [64]
- Concentration risk: A large portion of future revenue is tied to just a handful of hyperscale customers, raising questions about bargaining power and what happens when these contracts come up for renewal. [65]
6.3. What it means going into December
For long‑term investors, the late‑November news flow effectively reaffirms the core bull and bear theses:
- If you believe the AI infrastructure super‑cycle will continue, that Nebius can execute on its build‑out, and that its mega‑contracts will translate into strong, eventually profitable cash flows, the stock still looks like a high‑beta growth vehicle with significant upside, as many analysts argue. [66]
- If you worry about over‑building, financing risk, and an AI hype overshoot, the warnings about “borrowed billions”, speculation and the dependence on capital markets highlight real downside, especially if rates stay high or AI budgets tighten. [67]
Either way, everything published between 28 and 30 November 2025 points to one clear conclusion: Nebius will likely remain a highly volatile, news‑driven stock into December and 2026, with price moves driven as much by sentiment about AI spending and financing conditions as by its own quarterly numbers.
Not investment advice:
This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any transaction. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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