West African Resources (ASX: WAF) Share Price Outlook: Kiaka Stake Talks, Gold Production Surge and 2026 Forecasts

West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF) has gone from market darling to lightning rod for sovereign‑risk debate in just a few months. After a lengthy trading suspension linked to Burkina Faso’s new mining rules and a proposed increase in the State’s stake in its flagship Kiaka gold project, the stock is back on the ASX — and volatility has followed.

As of 28 November 2025, West African Resources shares were trading around A$2.81, giving the company a market capitalisation of roughly A$3.1–3.2 billion. ^[1] That price is well below recent highs, but still represents a multi‑year rerating driven by record gold prices, new production from Kiaka and a strong pipeline of growth projects.

This article reviews the latest news, Kiaka stake negotiations, production and financial results, analyst forecasts and key risks around West African Resources as at 1 December 2025.

Share price performance: strong long‑term returns, sharp short‑term shock

Over the past five years, West African Resources shareholders have enjoyed a total shareholder return of about 188%, according to Simply Wall St, with a one‑year return of roughly 87% noted in an August 2025 analysis. ^[2] That performance reflects the company’s transition from developer to profitable producer at its Sanbrado mine and, more recently, the start‑up of Kiaka.

Yet the journey has not been smooth:

The shares have traded between about A$1.42 and A$3.09 over the past 12 months. ^[3]
Prior to the current pull‑back, the stock had been one of the stronger performers among ASX gold names, supported by record‑high gold prices and rising production. ^[4]
In late November 2025, after trading resumed on the ASX, the stock fell around 13–15% in a single session as investors reacted to the terms and uncertainty surrounding government ownership talks at Kiaka. ^[5]

Even after the sell‑off, several valuation screens still show West African Resources trading on lower price‑earnings and price‑to‑book multiples than the average ASX gold stock, with a P/E near 9–10 versus an industry average closer to the high teens. ^[6]

Why trading was suspended: Burkina Faso’s Kiaka stake and the new mining code

The main source of recent volatility is not geology or metallurgy — it’s Burkina Faso’s evolving mining policy.

From 10% to 15% free‑carried interests

In 2024–25, Burkina Faso adopted a new mining code that lifted the State’s standard free‑carried equity stake in gold projects from 10% to 15%. West African Resources moved to comply, increasing the State’s interest in each of its three mining subsidiaries — Sanbrado, Kiaka and Toega — from 10% to 15% during the September 2025 quarter. ^[7]

The extra 35% at Kiaka and the ASX suspension

The real shock came in late August 2025, when West African disclosed that the Burkina Faso government had requested an additional 35% equity interest in Kiaka SA, the company that owns the Kiaka gold mine. If agreed, this would lift the State’s holding in Kiaka from 15% to 50%, with West African’s stake falling from 85% to 50%. ^[8]

Key points:

On 28 August 2025, West African requested a trading halt;
On 1 September 2025, the ASX suspended trading in WAF shares under Listing Rule 17.3, pending further clarification about the Kiaka transaction and compliance with continuous disclosure obligations. ^[9]

At the same time, local and regional media reported that Burkina Faso had already nationalised five other gold mines, underscoring market concerns around rising state intervention in the sector. ^[10]

Government clarification: “option, not a demand”

In early September, Burkina Faso’s mining authorities sought to calm nerves. A statement reported by Mining.com and other outlets emphasised that the request to acquire a further 35% stake in Kiaka was an option under the new framework, not an automatic demand, and that the government aimed to increase mining revenue while keeping projects attractive to investors. ^[11]

This distinction matters: it suggests the final outcome at Kiaka is negotiable, rather than imposed.

WAF’s November update and ASX reinstatement

On 25 November 2025, West African Resources released a detailed update on the discussions and announced:

It is proposing alternative mechanisms for “increasing national participation and government revenue”, including the development of new and previously closed mining projects, rather than simply transferring more equity in Kiaka;
The company has clarified that Sanbrado and Toega are not part of the equity stake discussions;
Burkina Faso’s leadership has, according to the company, indicated support for an outcome that “respects the legitimate interests of all parties”. ^[12]

Following these announcements, the ASX reinstated WAF to quotation, with MiningWeekly noting that the company confirmed its full compliance with listing rules as part of the reinstatement process. ^[13]

When trading resumed, however, investors priced in the remaining uncertainty, leading to the sharp one‑day drop in the share price.

Operations: Sanbrado, Kiaka and Toega form a multi‑mine gold platform

Behind the policy noise, West African Resources has quietly built a two‑mine, third‑project pipeline in Burkina Faso.

Sanbrado: the cash‑generating core

Sanbrado, located about 90km southeast of Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou, has been in commercial production since 2020. ^[14]

2024 production: 206,622 oz at an AISC (all‑in sustaining cost) of US$1,240/oz. ^[15]
2025 guidance: 190,000–210,000 oz at a site sustaining cost below US$1,350/oz. ^[16]

Sanbrado continues to be the group’s primary cash engine. In the September 2025 quarter, the mine sold 57,638 oz of gold at a site sustaining cost of US$1,348/oz, benefitting from very strong realised prices. ^[17]

Kiaka: new long‑life production centre

Kiaka, about 45km south of Sanbrado, is the company’s second production hub:

First gold was poured in June 2025, ahead of schedule and under budget. ^[18]
Kiaka is designed as a large, low‑grade, long‑life operation with Ore Reserves of 4.8Moz and a planned average production of ~234,000 oz per year for around 20 years from 2025. ^[19]

During the September 2025 quarter:

Kiaka sold 18,254 oz of gold at a site sustaining cost of US$1,921/oz, reflecting ramp‑up costs and early‑stage operational inefficiencies; ^[20]
Management expects unit costs to fall as throughput stabilises and the mine leverages fixed infrastructure over larger volumes. ^[21]

Toega: the next leg of growth

Toega, a satellite deposit about 13km from Sanbrado, is expected to feed higher‑grade ore into the Sanbrado plant:

Open‑pit Ore Reserve: 9.5Mt at 1.9 g/t Au for ~569,000 oz;
A separate underground resource of 4.9Mt at 3.5 g/t Au for ~560,000 oz, still open at depth. ^[22]

The company has:

Completed temporary resettlement of affected people and built a water storage facility;
Started construction of mine services and maintenance infrastructure;
Planned to commence open‑pit pre‑stripping by the end of Q4 2025. ^[23]

A scoping study suggests Toega could support an underground operation averaging about 81,000 oz per year for seven years, with underground ore displacing lower‑grade open‑pit feed at Sanbrado and potentially lifting overall group production by ~50,000 oz annually versus prior plans. ^[24]

10‑year production outlook: towards ~500,000 oz per year

In its updated resources, reserves and 10‑year outlook (released August 2025 and summarised again in the Q3 report), West African Resources outlined: ^[25]

Ore Reserves: 6.5Moz of gold;
Mineral Resources: 12.2Moz;
2025–2034 production: 4.8Moz;
Average 2026–2034 production: ~496,000 oz per year;
Peak annual production: ~569,000 oz in 2029.

Those numbers underpin the company’s aspirational goal of becoming a 500,000 oz‑per‑year producer by around 2030. ^[26]

Financials and balance sheet: high margins in a record gold price environment

The September 2025 quarter gives a useful snapshot of West African’s financial profile.

Q3 2025 snapshot

From the company’s quarterly activities and cashflow reports: ^[27]

Group gold sold: 75,892 oz;
Average realised gold price: US$3,396/oz;
Group AISC: US$1,532/oz for Q3 and US$1,443/oz year‑to‑date;
Operating cash flow: A$242 million in Q3 (including A$52m of VAT refunds and A$24m of income tax payments);
Quarter‑end cash: A$340 million;
Notional net cash: improved from US$72m net debt at the start of the quarter to US$33m net cash at 30 September, supported by strong cash generation and growing bullion inventory.

In other words, at current gold prices the company is generating very wide operating margins and has transitioned into a net cash position even while funding completion and ramp‑up of Kiaka and early spend at Toega.

Simply Wall St characterises West African’s balance sheet as strong, with debt used “quite sensibly” in the context of its cash flow, and notes repeated analyses over 2023–25 concluding the company can comfortably manage its borrowings. ^[28]

Valuation, broker forecasts and analyst sentiment

Fundamental valuation metrics

Data providers such as StockLight and Fintel show West African Resources trading on: ^[29]

P/E ratio: around 9.7x based on forecast FY25 earnings, versus an ASX gold sector average in the high‑teens;
Price‑to‑book and price‑to‑sales ratios below the average for ASX‑listed gold miners;
Market capitalisation: roughly A$3.1–3.2 billion at a share price of A$2.81–2.88.

Simply Wall St’s most recent “valuation insights” narrative (late November 2025) describes WAF as trading around 24% below their estimate of fair value, highlighting a perceived disconnect between the company’s growth profile and its current market price. ^[30]

Broker earnings and dividend forecasts

FNArena’s 1 December 2025 “Australian Broker Call Extra” summarises Canaccord Genuity’s latest forecasts (noting that the broker is formally under research restriction and has no published rating): ^[31]

FY25 EPS: 29 cents per share, implying a current‑year P/E of about 9.7x at A$2.81;
FY26 EPS: 79 cents per share, implying a forward P/E of roughly 3.6x if those numbers are achieved;
Dividends: no dividend expected for FY25, but 12 cents per share forecast for FY26, equivalent to a prospective yield of about 4.3% at recent prices.

These forecasts are not consensus, but they illustrate how brokers modelling a successful ramp‑up at Kiaka and Toega see material earnings and cash flow growth into 2026.

Price targets and ratings

Different platforms aggregate slightly different sets of broker and blogger targets, but recent snapshots show:

Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target for WAF in the low‑to‑mid A$3 range, with high estimates approaching the mid‑A$4s, implying double‑digit to potentially high double‑digit upside from ~A$2.8. ^[32]
TradingView and TipRanks similarly report average targets in the A$3–4 band, and still tend to classify the stock somewhere between “buy” and “strong buy” based on the small pool of covering brokers. ^[33]
AlphaSpread aggregates analyst estimates into an average target around the mid‑A$3s, again implying meaningful upside if guidance is delivered and the Kiaka stake issue resolves benignly. ^[34]

Not all coverage is bullish. MarketScreener records that Macquarie previously downgraded West African Resources to Underperform from Outperform, with a reduced price target of about A$3.00 after earlier, more optimistic reports citing ~40% upside. ^[35]

And on the technical side, StockInvest.us currently concludes that WAF “holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold (or accumulate) while awaiting further development.” ^[36]

Ownership and sentiment

Recent commentary on Yahoo Finance highlights that insiders collectively hold a significant stake in West African Resources, which many investors view as aligning management incentives with shareholders. ^[37]

Simply Wall St’s newsfeed shows a series of upgrades to consensus EPS estimates and price targets through 2024 and early 2025, followed by some downward revisions and more cautious sentiment as policy risk in Burkina Faso moved into focus. ^[38]

Country and project risks: what could go wrong?

While the growth story is compelling on paper, West African Resources is exposed to several material risks.

1. Sovereign and policy risk in Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso has experienced political instability and security challenges in recent years, and the government is clearly seeking to extract more value from its mineral resources.

Key risk factors include:

The new mining code, which increases state free‑carried stakes and royalty rates as gold prices rise; ^[39]
The government’s willingness to nationalise or renegotiate terms at certain mines, as seen with other operators; ^[40]
The still‑unresolved question of whether Kiaka ultimately remains majority controlled by WAF or becomes a 50/50 joint venture with the State. ^[41]

While recent communications from both the company and the government emphasise “constructive” talks and mutual respect for all parties’ interests, the final economics at Kiaka remain uncertain, and investors are rightly factoring that into valuations. ^[42]

2. Operational and execution risk

Kiaka is still in ramp‑up mode, and its initial site sustaining cost of ~US$1,921/oz in Q3 2025 is significantly above Sanbrado’s cost base. ^[43]

If:

ramp‑up takes longer than expected,
grade control underperforms the mine plan, or
input costs continue to rise,

then the group AISC could remain elevated and erode margins, even with high gold prices.

Similarly, Toega’s successful development depends on:

Delivering resettlement and infrastructure on time;
Managing community relations;
Achieving the grades and recoveries assumed in the scoping study. ^[44]

3. Gold price risk

West African Resources is unhedged, by design, which maximises leverage to gold’s upside but also leaves earnings and cash flow fully exposed to downside moves. ^[45]

With realised prices above US$3,300/oz during Q3, margins are very healthy. ^[46] If gold were to fall sharply, the company’s high‑growth capex plans and potential dividend ambitions could come under pressure.

ESG and community engagement

The Q3 2025 report emphasises a range of environmental and social programs:

Reforestation campaigns around Sanbrado;
Construction and refurbishment of schools in resettlement communities;
University scholarships for local students;
Livelihood restoration programs including agricultural field schools and moringa cultivation projects. ^[47]

These initiatives matter not just for ethics but also for operational stability, especially in jurisdictions where community relations and government goodwill can directly influence licence security.

Key catalysts to watch into 2026

Investors following West African Resources over the next year are likely to focus on several milestones:

Final outcome of Kiaka stake negotiations
Whether the government ultimately takes the extra 35% stake, accepts alternative revenue‑sharing mechanisms, or lands somewhere in between will have a direct impact on WAF’s long‑term share of Kiaka’s cash flows. ^[48]
Sustained performance at Kiaka
Evidence that Kiaka can consistently hit throughput and grade targets while bringing its cost structure closer to Sanbrado’s will be crucial to validating the 10‑year production and earnings profile. ^[49]
Start of mining at Toega
The commencement of pre‑stripping and, later, first ore deliveries will test WAF’s ability to execute another project while managing two operating mines. ^[50]
Next full‑year results and guidance update
StockInvest notes the next earnings date is currently expected around 3 March 2026, which should bring updated guidance, cost outlook and any changes to capital allocation plans. ^[51]
Potential introduction of dividends
If brokers such as Canaccord are correct, 2026 could see the first dividend from West African Resources, signalling a transition from pure reinvestment to a mix of growth and shareholder returns. ^[52]

Is West African Resources a buy, hold or avoid?

West African Resources sits at a crossroads that is unusually clear:

On the positive side:

Two operating mines in a tier‑one gold belt, with a third project close behind; ^[53]
A robust balance sheet that has recently moved into net cash; ^[54]
A 10‑year production plan targeting ~500,000 oz per year and peak output of ~569,000 oz in 2029; ^[55]
Valuation multiples below many ASX gold peers and multiple independent models suggesting the shares trade at a discount to estimated fair value. ^[56]

On the risk side:

A highly visible sovereign‑risk overhang in Burkina Faso;
Uncertainty over the ultimate ownership and economics of Kiaka;
Typical mining execution risks as Kiaka ramps up and Toega is built;
Full exposure to the gold price, for better or worse. ^[57]

Whether the current share price compensates for those risks is ultimately an individual judgement. What recent developments do make clear is that policy outcomes in Burkina Faso may matter as much as drill results for WAF’s valuation over the next few years.

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