Sydney — 1 December 2025 — Macquarie Group Limited (ASX:MQG), Australia’s best‑known investment bank and global infrastructure investor, is trading around A$197.45 per share, leaving the stock roughly 18% below its 52‑week high of about A$242.90 and well above its recent low near A$160. Over the past 12 months, the Macquarie share price is down about 14–15%, underperforming the broader market despite continued profitability and rising dividends. [1]
Today’s valuation — a market capitalisation of roughly A$72 billion, a price‑to‑earnings multiple around 19–20x, price‑to‑book near 2.0x and an indicative dividend yield of about 3.4–3.6% — sits at the intersection of several big storylines: a solid but controversial half‑year result, a bold A$11.6 billion bid for Qube Holdings, the completed sale of Macquarie’s US and European public asset management business to Nomura, large capital returns, and mounting regulatory and governance scrutiny. [2]
Below is a deep dive into the latest Macquarie Group news, forecasts and analyses as of 1 December 2025.
Macquarie share price today: recovery after a post‑results shock
Real‑time data shows Macquarie Group trading around A$197.45 on the ASX, with recent intraday ranges typically between A$195 and A$199. Over the last month, the stock has fallen more than 13%, reflecting the market’s reaction to the bank’s November half‑year result, before staging a modest rebound over the past week. [3]
Over the past year, Macquarie shares have:
- Delivered a negative low‑teens total return,
- Traded in a 52‑week band of A$160.00 to A$242.90, and
- Underperformed both the S&P/ASX 200 and the Australian financials index, which are in positive territory over the same period. [4]
Price‑action metrics from trading platforms show MQG is down roughly 10% year‑to‑date and more than 15% over 12 months, but still up more than 40% over five years, capturing its longer‑term track record as a compounder. [5]
Half‑year 2026 result: solid business, disappointing expectations
On 7 November 2025, Macquarie reported its 1H26 (half‑year to 30 September 2025) result:
- Net profit after tax: A$1,655 million, up 3% on the prior corresponding period but 21% lower than the preceding half.
- Net operating income: A$8.69 billion, up 6% year‑on‑year.
- Operating expenses: A$6.24 billion, up 5% year‑on‑year.
- Return on equity (ROE): 9.6%, below the double‑digit/high‑teens levels Macquarie delivered pre‑2023.
- Assets under management (AUM): A$959.1 billion, up 5% vs September 2024.
- Capital surplus: A$7.6 billion; CET1 ratio 12.4%, LCR 173%, NSFR 113% — all comfortably above regulatory minima. [6]
Divisional performance highlighted a changing earnings mix:
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM): profit contribution A$1,175m, up 43% year‑on‑year, driven by higher performance fees.
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS): profit A$793m, up 22%, supported by a rapidly growing home‑loan and deposit franchise.
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM): profit A$1,113m, down 15%, reflecting lower trading income and higher remediation‑related costs.
- Macquarie Capital: profit A$711m, up 92%, thanks to stronger M&A advisory and private credit income. [7]
While those headline numbers look respectable, they missed investor expectations. Reuters reported that the half‑year profit came in around 12% below consensus, with analysts having pencilled in roughly A$1.86 billion of earnings. Macquarie shares dropped about 5.7% on the day, extending an already weak year of relative performance versus global peers. [8]
A critical concern for the market is that Macquarie’s ROE has drifted down toward 10%, while the stock still trades at more than 2x forward book value. In a Breakingviews commentary, Reuters noted that analysts do not expect returns to exceed roughly 13% in the next couple of years, suggesting investors may still be pricing the stock as if it were in its “glory days” of high‑teens ROE. [9]
Dividend, buyback and income profile
Income‑focused investors continue to scrutinise Macquarie’s capital‑return story.
From the 1H26 result, the board:
- Declared an interim ordinary dividend of A$2.80 per share (35% franked),
- Set a payout ratio of 64%, comfortably within its 50–70% target band, and
- Confirmed key dates: ex‑dividend 17 November 2025, record date 18 November, payment date 17 December 2025. [10]
At current prices near A$197, the interim dividend alone equates to roughly a 1.4% half‑year cash yield (before franking), implying an annualised yield in the high‑2% to low‑3% range if a similar final dividend is paid — broadly consistent with third‑party estimates of a 3.2–3.6% yield. [11]
Macquarie is also leaning on buybacks:
- The board has extended its on‑market share buyback of up to A$2 billion for another 12 months.
- As of 6 November 2025, the group had already repurchased about A$1.01 billion of stock at an average price of A$189.80 per share. [12]
A recent dividend analysis from Simply Wall St, published via Webull, argues that Macquarie’s dividend appears well covered by earnings, with a historical payout ratio around 68% and forecast EPS growth of roughly 38% over the next three years, keeping the forward payout ratio near 66%. The same analysis notes about 7% annualised dividend growth over the past decade, albeit with at least one cut along the way. [13]
For income investors, that combination — growing earnings, a mid‑single‑digit yield, and ongoing buybacks — is part of the appeal, even as short‑term share price volatility remains elevated.
Strategic pivot: Qube bid and Nomura asset‑management deal
A$11.6 billion play for Qube Holdings
On 24 November 2025, Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) lodged a A$5.20‑per‑share, all‑cash takeover proposal for Qube Holdings (ASX:QUB), valuing Australia’s largest logistics operator at A$11.6 billion enterprise value, including about A$2.3 billion of debt. [14]
Key deal terms and implications:
- The offer represents a 27.8% premium to Qube’s pre‑bid closing price.
- Qube’s shares surged nearly 20% to a record A$4.89 on the announcement. [15]
- Qube has granted Macquarie exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026, with the board indicating preliminary support in the absence of a superior proposal. [16]
For Macquarie Group shareholders, the Qube bid reinforces several themes:
- Capital deployment into long‑duration infrastructure‑linked assets,
- Potential for higher management and performance fees through Macquarie’s asset‑management platforms, and
- Execution, regulatory and pricing risk if logistics and port valuations come under pressure or competing bids emerge. TS2 Tech+1
If completed, it would be one of Australia’s largest deals of 2025, deepening Macquarie’s footprint in ports, intermodal terminals and bulk‑handling infrastructure at a time when investors are re‑rating “real‑asset” cash flows. [17]
Nomura completes acquisition of Macquarie’s US & European public asset business
The other big strategic move crystallised today. On 1 December 2025, Nomura Holdings announced it had completed the acquisition of Macquarie Asset Management’s US and European public asset management business for US$1.8 billion. The deal transfers roughly US$166 billion of client assets in public equities, fixed income and multi‑asset strategies into Nomura Asset Management International. [18]
Under the transaction:
- Nomura is combining the acquired Macquarie business with its own Nomura Capital Management (NCM) and Nomura Corporate Research and Asset Management (NCRAM) to form a new international asset‑management platform.
- Macquarie and Nomura have established a strategic partnership for product distribution and co‑development of investment strategies, including distribution of selected Macquarie private funds to US high‑net‑worth and family‑office clients. [19]
For Macquarie, the sale accelerates the shift away from traditional public‑markets asset management toward higher‑margin alternative investments such as infrastructure, private markets and real assets, while freeing up capital and sharpening strategic focus. For investors in MQG shares, it also adds another moving part to the earnings mix, potentially reducing fee volatility from public markets but increasing reliance on alternative‑asset cycles and fundraising.
Data centres, AI and the Aligned sale
In October 2025, Macquarie Asset Management completed a landmark ~US$40 billion sale of Aligned Data Centers, one of the world’s major data‑centre operators, to a consortium that includes BlackRock, Microsoft and Nvidia. Despite the huge realisation, Macquarie emphasised that it remains bullish on AI and digital infrastructure, with plans to invest up to US$5 billion alongside Applied Digital in new high‑performance computing data centres. [20]
The Aligned exit highlights Macquarie’s strategy of:
- Originating and scaling infrastructure platforms,
- Monetising them via large secondary transactions, and
- Recycling capital into new deals — such as the potential Qube acquisition and other digital‑infrastructure projects.
For the Macquarie share price, this underpins the long‑term growth narrative in data, AI and infrastructure, but also reinforces the inherently lumpy, transaction‑driven nature of earnings in its asset‑management and capital divisions.
Regulatory and governance overhangs
Macquarie’s strategic progress has been accompanied by a steady drip of regulatory actions and governance controversy, which the market increasingly treats as part of the investment case.
Shield Master Fund remediation
In September 2025, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) announced that a Macquarie investment‑management unit would repay about A$321 million to around 3,000 investors who lost retirement savings in the failed Shield Master Fund, a leveraged bond product offered via Macquarie’s platform. Macquarie agreed to refund losses and implement tighter governance after ASIC alleged it had failed to adequately monitor the product. [21]
“First strike” on executive pay and CFO transition
At the July 2025 annual general meeting, roughly 25.4% of shareholders voted against Macquarie’s remuneration report, handing the group a “first strike” under Australian corporate‑governance rules. A second strike next year could trigger a vote to spill the entire board. The backlash was fuelled by concerns over high executive pay — including CEO Shemara Wikramanayake’s multi‑million‑dollar package — against a backdrop of regulatory investigations and softer earnings. [22]
Around the same time, the bank announced that Chief Financial Officer Alex Harvey would step down at the end of 2025, with long‑time executive Frank Kwok slated as his successor. Reuters also flagged ASIC proceedings alleging that Macquarie had misreported around A$1.5 billion in short‑sale trades over more than a decade, adding to a list of compliance issues. [23]
Combined, these events have:
- Dented Macquarie’s reputation for flawless execution,
- Increased the level of shareholder activism and scrutiny on pay, and
- Contributed to a valuation debate about whether MQG still deserves a premium multiple to other global investment banks.
Analyst forecasts and valuation: cautious optimism at current levels
Fundamental forecasts
Post‑results, analysts’ medium‑term forecasts have shifted only modestly.
A consensus summary from Simply Wall St (via Webull) indicates that for fiscal 2026:
- Revenue is expected to reach about A$18.4 billion, a 3.2% increase on the past 12 months.
- Statutory EPS is forecast to rise about 9.1% to A$10.83.
- Revenue growth over the period to 2026 is projected at roughly 6.5% per year, broadly in line with the wider industry’s ~6.2% rate and consistent with Macquarie’s 5‑year historical growth of around 5.6% annually. [24]
Price targets and rating consensus
Different aggregators paint a broadly similar picture:
- Simply Wall St’s collated broker data shows a consensus 12‑month price target of A$224, with a tight range between A$200 and A$255 per share — implying high single‑ to low double‑digit upside from current levels. [25]
- TipRanks reports a consensus 1‑year target of about A$220.89, suggesting roughly 12% upside, based on eight analyst ratings that collectively amount to a “Hold” recommendation. [26]
- Investing.com’s consensus estimates put potential upside near 13–14% from today’s price, consistent with those targets. [27]
TipRanks’ AI‑driven analysis currently scores Macquarie as “Neutral”, noting:
- Strength in asset management growth,
- Ongoing expansion in banking and financial services,
- A strong capital position, but
- Headwinds from declining commodities earnings, rising expenses, and falling ROE, leaving valuation metrics “rich but not extreme” at a P/E near 20x and P/B just above 2x. [28]
Technical views and short‑term trading ranges
Technical‑analysis platform StockInvest estimates a “predicted fair opening price” of around A$196.82 for 1 December 2025, with MQG sitting mid‑range in a short‑term falling trend channel. Its models suggest a possible further downside of up to ~10% over the next three months if the downtrend persists, with key: [29]
- Support between roughly A$193–194, where buying interest has previously emerged; and
- Resistance near A$205, around the post‑results lows seen in early November.
Short‑term traders are watching whether the share price can hold the A$193–200 band, which has captured much of the recent consolidation.
How Macquarie compares to peers
Trading data and fundamental metrics show that MQG:
- Has underperformed US peers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, whose shares have risen by at least 25% over the past six months, versus roughly 5% for Macquarie over the same period. [30]
- Offers a higher ROE and growth profile than many domestic Australian banks, but with more earnings volatility due to commodities, capital‑markets and alternative‑asset exposures.
- Commands a premium valuation — over 2x book value — that assumes Macquarie can maintain its status as a global infrastructure and alternatives powerhouse rather than revert to a more ordinary bank‑like earnings profile. [31]
This premium is what underpins much of the current debate: is Macquarie still Macquarie, or has the world changed enough that investors should expect lower structural returns?
Key themes and risks to watch into 2026
From the perspective of general market commentary (not personalised advice), several themes look set to drive the Macquarie Group share price over the next year:
- Execution on Qube and other large deals
- Can Macquarie close the Qube transaction on attractive terms, and will it deliver the expected fee and return profile without stretching the balance sheet? [32]
- Post‑Nomura portfolio shape
- The completed sale of the US and European public asset‑management business simplifies Macquarie’s footprint but increases its skew to private markets and infrastructure. The success of the strategic partnership with Nomura in distributing private funds and co‑developing strategies will matter for future fund flows and fees. [33]
- Commodities and CGM earnings
- Earnings from commodities trading have normalised sharply after the extreme volatility of 2022–23. If volatility remains subdued, CGM may continue to drag on group ROE; a resurgence could provide meaningful upside surprise. [34]
- Mortgage growth versus margin pressure
- Macquarie has grown its Australian mortgage book to about A$160 billion and a 6.5% market share, up from 3.5% five years ago. Sustaining that growth while preserving margins in a competitive lending market is a key swing factor for BFS earnings. [35]
- Regulatory, governance and ESG scrutiny
- The Shield Master Fund remediation, short‑selling misreporting issues, the remuneration “first strike”, and climate‑related criticism of fossil‑fuel financing all contribute to a higher “governance risk premium” that could weigh on valuation if not addressed decisively. [36]
- Macro backdrop and interest‑rate cycle
- As a globally exposed financial conglomerate, Macquarie remains sensitive to global growth, rates, deal‑making activity, capital markets issuance, and commodity volatility, all of which can move quickly and in unpredictable ways. [37]
Bottom line: a premium franchise facing a reality check
As of 1 December 2025, Macquarie Group’s share price near A$197 reflects a tug‑of‑war between:
- Positive forces: growing asset‑management and retail‑banking earnings; strong capital buffers; ongoing dividends and buybacks; a deep deal pipeline in infrastructure, logistics and digital assets; and the strategic reshaping of its asset‑management business via the Nomura transaction. [38]
- Headwinds: a high‑profile profit miss, lower ROE than in the past, cyclically soft commodities earnings, elevated regulatory and governance scrutiny, and a valuation multiple that still bakes in a degree of “old Macquarie” performance. [39]
Analyst consensus today suggests modest upside over the next 12 months, with most forecasts clustered in the A$220–A$225 per‑share range, but also flags that Macquarie is no longer obviously cheap relative to its risk profile. [40]
For investors, MQG remains what it has long been: a high‑quality but higher‑beta play on global infrastructure, alternative assets, capital markets and Australian retail banking — now entering a new chapter defined by normalised returns, sharper regulatory focus and bolder strategic bets.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.macquarie.com, 7. www.macquarie.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.macquarie.com, 11. www.webull.com, 12. www.macquarie.com, 13. www.webull.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.nomuraholdings.com, 19. www.nomuraholdings.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.webull.com, 25. www.webull.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. stockinvest.us, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.nomuraholdings.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.macquarie.com, 38. www.macquarie.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.webull.com
