Bitcoin Price Targets $100,000 as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Soar, but December 1 Sell-Off Tests Bulls

Published: December 1, 2025 – All figures and probabilities are approximate and may have changed since publication. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

Key Points

BTIG says Bitcoin’s “reflex rally” could carry the price back toward $100,000 after a 36% peak-to-trough drawdown from October’s all‑time high near $126,000. ^[1]
Prediction and derivatives markets now price a December Fed rate cut as the base case, with CME FedWatch odds around 85% and Polymarket pricing a 25 bps cut at roughly 89%. ^[2]
Bitcoin’s December 1 session opened with fresh pain: a DeFi “Yearn incident,” BOJ rate-hike jitters and a wave of liquidations dragged BTC back below $90,000 and erased part of last week’s rally. ^[3]

From $126K Peak to BTIG’s $100K “Reflex Rally” Thesis

Bitcoin enters December 2025 in a dramatically different place than it was just a month ago.

After setting a record high close to $126,000 in October, BTC slid as much as 36% in the weeks that followed, bottoming in the $80,000–$82,000 zone before staging a late‑November rebound. ^[4]

By November 28, Bitcoin had:

Rebounded to roughly $93,000 in early U.S. trading,
Recovered about 15% from its panic low near $80,000,
Still finished November with a 17–18% monthly loss, its worst month since March. ^[5]

Against that backdrop, global financial services firm BTIG stepped in with one of the cycle’s boldest short‑term calls: a “reflex rally” back toward $100,000.

In a note cited by multiple outlets, BTIG chief technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky argued that:

Bitcoin’s 36% peak‑to‑trough decline has pushed it into oversold territory,
Historical seasonality shows BTC tends to bottom around November 26 and strengthen into year‑end,
Technical conditions now favor a rebound “at least back towards 100k.” ^[6]

BTIG’s framework is explicitly technical, not fundamental. The firm points to:

Oversold momentum indicators,
A standard year‑end seasonality pattern,
A view that the recent washout may have reset positioning after an overheated run to new highs. ^[7]

Crucially, BTIG is not calling for a new parabolic run far beyond $100,000 – the call is framed as a tactical rebound within a still‑uncertain bigger trend.

Rate-Cut Mania: Polymarket and CME FedWatch Push December Odds Higher

One of the big reasons the $100K narrative refuses to die: interest‑rate expectations have flipped in Bitcoin’s favor.

Prediction markets: Polymarket

On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the contract “Fed decision in December?” – which pays based on the change in the Fed funds target after the December 9–10 FOMC meeting – now prices: ^[8]

~89% chance of a 25 bps cut,
~10% chance of no change,
~1% odds of a 50 bps cut,
Virtually 0% odds of a rate hike.

That pricing follows a dramatic swing over November. Earlier in the month, hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell knocked odds of a December cut down toward 20–30%. But more dovish remarks from Governor Christopher Waller and other officials – emphasizing a softer labor market and inflation near target – helped drive those odds sharply higher in the second half of the month. ^[9]

A recap from Whale Alert, aggregating Cointelegraph’s coverage, notes Polymarket odds climbing to about 87% for a December cut, coinciding with a ~7% weekly gain in Bitcoin, double‑digit rallies in several miners, and a near 10% jump in USDC‑issuer Circle. ^[10]

Derivatives markets: CME FedWatch

On the traditional side, CME FedWatch – which infers probabilities from Fed funds futures – has also swung decisively dovish:

Coingape reports FedWatch now shows an ~85% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, up from around 30% earlier in the week. ^[11]
DL News similarly cites FedWatch odds in the low‑80s and Polymarket in the mid‑80s, as macro data and Fed commentary steadily shifted sentiment. ^[12]

In parallel, Deutsche Bank published a forecast calling for a single 25 bps cut in December followed by a long pause, noting that Polymarket’s contract had surged to ~84% probability for that same outcome. ^[13]

Taken together, prediction and derivatives markets are sending a clear message: a December rate cut is now treated as the base case, not a tail‑risk scenario. For a high‑beta macro asset like Bitcoin, that’s fuel for every “$100K soon” headline – including BTIG’s.

Crypto Miners and Stocks: Leveraged Bets on the Same Story

If Bitcoin is the headline act, crypto mining and related stocks are the high‑beta chorus.

On November 28, as BTC pushed back toward $93,000 and rate‑cut odds “shot back to 89%,” Coindesk reported that crypto‑related stocks were rallying across the board: ^[14]

CleanSpark (CLSK) up about 12.5%,
Bitfarms (BITF) up around 11%,
Riot Platforms (RIOT) up roughly 9%,
Bitcoin‑treasury firm KindlyMD (NAKA) bouncing 12%,
Strategy (MSTR) – the rebranded MicroStrategy – gaining about 3.8%.

BTIG’s own note singled out Cipher Mining (CIFR) and Terawulf (WULF) as “showing impressive performance” relative to the broader crypto pullback. The firm also highlighted Strategy as a potential mean‑reversion trade, with the stock down more than 60% from its summer peak but sitting on what it considers strong technical support. ^[15]

A Cointelegraph‑syndicated piece, summarized by TradingView and Whale Alert, adds that prediction‑market‑driven optimism helped lift: ^[16]

US‑listed miners CleanSpark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining, which all posted double‑digit five‑day gains,
Circle, which jumped nearly 10% in early trading,
Coinbase and Strategy, which notched more modest but still positive moves.

Why such sensitivity? Mining and crypto‑adjacent stocks are effectively levered bets on Bitcoin and on the cost of capital:

Higher BTC prices increase mining revenue (in BTC terms),
Lower interest rates ease debt burdens and make equity capital cheaper,
AI and GPU‑cloud side‑businesses at some miners (like IREN) are increasingly seen as an additional growth leg. ^[17]

When markets price in a “dovish pivot” plus a Bitcoin bounce, miners tend to move first – and harder.

December 1 Reality Check: Yearn Incident, BOJ Jitters and Liquidations

The first trading day of December, however, has reminded everyone how quickly crypto sentiment can flip.

Yearn’s yETH “incident” hits DeFi and majors

In early Asian hours on December 1, Yearn Finance posted an alert about an “incident” in its yETH liquidity pool, sparking fear across DeFi. Coindesk reports that: ^[18]

The attacker allegedly exploited a vulnerability to mint a large amount of yETH in a single transaction,
Around 1,000 ETH (roughly $3 million) was drained from the pool and laundered via mixers,
Yearn said its V2 and V3 vaults remained unaffected, but the news triggered broad selling.

Bitcoin dropped over 3% to near $87,000, while Ether fell about 5%, and large‑cap altcoins including SOL, DOGE and XRP lost more than 4% in the wake of the incident. The sell‑off extended an already bruising November for majors, with BTC having finished the month down 17.5% and ETH down 22%. ^[19]

BOJ shock and global risk-off

At almost the same time, macro forces turned against risk assets.

In its Asia morning briefing, Coindesk notes that Japan’s 2‑year government bond yield spiked to about 1.01%, the highest level since 2008, as traders bet the Bank of Japan could finally move away from ultra‑low rates. ^[20]

Key points from that report:

Bitcoin slipped below $87,500 during Hong Kong trading,
Rising Japanese yields strengthened the yen and pressured yen‑funded carry trades,
Crypto, which is highly sensitive to short‑term liquidity, “bore the brunt” of the move.

Polymarket simultaneously showed traders assigning roughly 50% odds to a December BOJ rate increase, underscoring how prediction markets are now influencing not just Fed expectations but Asian policy as well. ^[21]

Liquidation cascade: $200M–$400M longs wiped out

The price action wasn’t just about sentiment – it was about leverage.

CryptoBriefing reports Bitcoin slid from above $91,000 to about $88,900 within an hour, triggering more than $200 million in leveraged long liquidations across the crypto market. ^[22]
A flash‑note from Blockchain.News cites data shared by The Kobeissi Letter, estimating that BTC fell roughly $4,000 in two hours as about $400 million in levered long positions were wiped out in just 60 minutes. ^[23]

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg‑syndicated piece carried by Moneycontrol describes Bitcoin sliding as much as 4.3% below $88,000, with Ether down around 6% to under $2,900. The article frames the move as a “risk‑off start to December” after a weeks‑long sell‑off that began when about $19 billion in levered bets were wiped out in early October, shortly after BTC’s all‑time high. ^[24]

Traders quoted in that report flag:

Weak inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs,
A lack of aggressive dip‑buying,
$80,000 as the next major technical support to watch.

A separate analysis from MEXC characterizes the recent slide as part of a $600 billion crypto‑market wipeout, noting that Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000 marks a seven‑month low and erases nearly 30% of its value since October’s peak. ^[25]

The Bull and Bear Cases for $100,000 From Here

Given the mix of bullish rate‑cut narratives and brutal liquidations, where does BTIG’s $100,000 call stand now?

Tailwinds for the $100K thesis

Oversold technical backdrop
- BTIG’s core argument is that a 30–36% drawdown from the highs has washed out speculative excess and created room for a “reflex rally” higher. ^[26]
- On‑chain and derivatives data cited by QCP Capital and Glassnode also point to reduced long leverage, negative funding rates, and a shift toward more balanced positioning – all conditions typically seen in the later stages of corrections. ^[27]
Supportive seasonality
- BTIG notes that Bitcoin’s average seasonal pattern shows price tends to bottom around November 26 and gain momentum through the end of the year, suggesting a historical tailwind into December. ^[28]
Dovish Fed expectations
- Prediction and derivatives markets are aligned around a 25 bps December cut with 80–90% probability, after a swift repricing from sub‑30% levels earlier in November. ^[29]
- Deutsche Bank’s baseline of “one cut, then a long pause” still implies the rate‑hiking cycle is over, which tends to be constructive for high‑beta assets even if cuts don’t come in a rapid series. ^[30]
Miners and crypto stocks confirming sentiment shift
- The late‑November outperformance of miners and crypto‑linked equities suggests equity investors are already positioning for a more benign macro backdrop – and, by extension, for higher BTC prices – even after December 1’s pullback. ^[31]

Headwinds that could derail the rally

Leverage still bites on the downside
- December 1’s move showed that over‑leveraged longs remain vulnerable. Hundreds of millions of dollars in positions were liquidated in hours, turning a normal sell‑off into a cascade. ^[32]
- If $80,000 gives way, the next leg lower could again be driven more by forced deleveraging than by fundamentals, as Moneycontrol’s coverage suggests. ^[33]
ETF flows and institutional demand are wobbling
- Coindesk notes that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $3.48 billion in net outflows in November, the second‑largest redemption month on record, while Ether ETFs lost a record $1.42 billion. ^[34]
- DL News, despite acknowledging a recent bounce in ETF inflows, highlights that November remains one of the worst months for outflows and that some analysts do not expect BTC to “explode” to new highs before 2026. ^[35]
Security and idiosyncratic risk in DeFi
- The Yearn yETH exploit arrives just days after a major Korean exchange hack, underlining that the industry’s security layer still lags the pace of institutionalization and ETF growth. ^[36]
- Each new incident undermines the “digital gold” narrative and can scare off marginal institutional buyers.
Macro remains fluid
- While markets are confident about a December cut, Deutsche Bank and others warn that the Fed could cut once and then hold, limiting how far real yields actually fall. ^[37]
- Outside the U.S., potential BOJ tightening has already shown its power to disrupt carry trades and slam risk assets globally – including Bitcoin. ^[38]

In short: $100,000 is still technically plausible, but the path looks less like a smooth “Santa rally” and more like a narrow ridge between renewed panic and macro disappointment.

What to Watch Next

For traders, fund managers and curious observers, several catalysts will define whether BTIG’s $100K call looks prescient or premature:

U.S. macro data into the December 9–10 FOMC meeting
- Labor‑market and inflation prints will determine whether Fed‑cut odds stay in the 80–90% band or retreat again toward 50–50. ^[39]
Actual FOMC decision and forward guidance
- A 25 bps cut with cautious language (Deutsche Bank’s baseline) may already be priced in.
- A surprise no‑cut could force a sharp repricing lower in both Bitcoin and miners.
ETF flows and institutional positioning
- Renewed net inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs would strengthen the bull case that November’s outflows were a temporary shake‑out. Continued heavy redemptions would say the opposite. ^[40]
On‑chain leverage and derivatives data
- If funding stays tame and open interest rebuilds slowly, the market may have room to grind higher without another liquidation wave.
- A fast rebuild of crowded longs at key levels (e.g., $95,000 and above) would raise the risk of another “trapdoor” sell‑off. ^[41]
Security headlines in DeFi and exchanges
- A quiet period after the Yearn and Upbit incidents would help soothe nerves. Another major exploit could accelerate rotation back into Bitcoin‑only or even gold and cash. ^[42]

Bottom Line

As of December 1, 2025, the Bitcoin story is not as simple as “$100K is guaranteed” – or “the crash has only just begun.”

BTIG’s $100,000 target rests on oversold technicals, favorable seasonality and a macro backdrop where a December Fed rate cut is now the consensus bet. ^[43]
Prediction markets and miners are broadly aligned with that optimistic view – when they are not being interrupted by macro shocks or protocol exploits. ^[44]
At the same time, leverage, ETF outflows and security lapses are powerful counterforces, reminding traders that Bitcoin’s journey is rarely a straight line. ^[45]

For now, Bitcoin sits in a volatile middle ground: close enough to $100,000 for bullish calls to sound plausible, but fragile enough that one bad headline can erase billions in a few hours.

Anyone trading or investing around these levels should treat rate‑cut odds, leverage metrics and security news as first‑class signals – and remember that no call, even from a major firm like BTIG, can eliminate the fundamental uncertainty that defines crypto.