Flight Centre (ASX: FLT) Stock Outlook 2026: Short Sellers, Buybacks and a New Loyalty Gamble

As at 1 December 2025, Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) sits in one of the market’s strangest sweet spots: strong travel demand, record sales, ambitious 2026 profit targets – and yet it remains one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX 200. ^[1]

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analysis around Flight Centre shares from April’s guidance cut to November’s loyalty-program launch and December’s short-selling data, to frame the investment story heading into 2026.

Flight Centre share price snapshot and recent performance

On Friday 28 November 2025, Flight Centre shares closed at A$13.53 on the ASX, up 6.54% for the day and about 4% over the previous two weeks, on rising trading volume. Technical analysts at StockInvest currently classify FLT as a short‑term “buy candidate”, noting positive signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages and a supportive trend between roughly A$11.67 and A$13.73 over the next three months. ^[2]

Despite the recent bounce, the stock has had a tough year. One valuation-focused research house highlighted in mid‑November that FLT’s share price was down about 21% year to date in 2025, prompting a fresh look at whether the sell‑off has gone too far. ^[3]

Over a 12‑month horizon, an analysis from The Nightly pointed out that Flight Centre shares were down roughly 26% year‑on‑year ahead of the November AGM – a slide that has drawn in hedge funds and short sellers, but also value‑oriented buyers. ^[4]

One of the ASX’s most shorted stocks – but shorts are easing

According to ASIC short‑position data compiled by StockTrack, Flight Centre has consistently ranked in the top 10 most shorted ASX 200 stocks in recent months. Across October and November 2025, between 9.8% and 11.3% of its issued shares were reported as sold short, equivalent to more than 21 million shares bet against the company. ^[5]

A fresh ASX short‑interest list published on 1 December 2025 shows FLT still in that top‑10 group, with short interest around 9.9%, but down from the previous week – a sign that some short sellers are beginning to cover as the share price stabilises. ^[6]

Commentary from fund managers quoted in recent coverage frames this as a classic battleground: traders betting on structural pressure from online competition and macro headwinds, versus long‑term investors who see a profitable, globally diversified travel company trading at what they consider a discounted price. One prominent “fundie” even argued that high short interest could fuel a “big uplift” if sentiment turns and shorts are forced to buy back stock. ^[7]

FY25 results: record sales, softer margins

Flight Centre’s full‑year 2025 results (year to 30 June 2025) are the backbone of today’s investment debate.

In its ASX statement on 27 August 2025, the company reported: ^[8]

Record total transaction value (TTV) of A$24.5 billion, up 3% year on year.
Underlying profit before tax (UPBT) of A$289.1 million, almost 10% below FY24, and slightly under the already‑revised guidance range.
Statutory PBT of A$213 million, about 3% lower than FY24.
An underlying PBT margin of 1.2% (down from 1.3%).
A fully franked final dividend of A$0.29 per share, taking total FY25 dividends to A$0.40, the same as FY24 but at a higher payout ratio (around 52% of underlying NPAT, versus 38% in FY24).

Segment detail highlights a business that is large, profitable and still rebalancing after the post‑COVID rebound:

Corporate travel generated A$12.3 billion TTV (up 2% YoY) and A$190m UPBT, down 10% year‑on‑year, though profit actually grew 6% if Asia is excluded, due to region‑specific issues. ^[9]
Leisure travel produced A$11.8 billion TTV, up 6.7%, with A$175m UPBT – 5.3% lower than FY24 but roughly 35% above pre‑COVID levels. Growth was strongest in lower‑margin brands like Travel Money (TTV up 31% to A$1.2b), Ignite (up ~20% to A$455m) and the independent agent network (up 17% to A$2.3b). ^[10]

Management blamed the earnings shortfall on a cocktail of cyclical and operational factors:

A “volatile” macro environment with cautious consumers, geopolitical tensions and tariff disruptions. ^[11]
Q4 hit especially hard by escalating Middle East tensions and a sharp downturn in leisure travel to the United States – Flight Centre reported that Australian demand for US trips fell 11% in Q4, after increasing 7% in the first nine months of the year. ^[12]
Underperformance in Asia, including system issues and higher provisions, turning a prior‑year profit into a circa A$22m regional loss. ^[13]
Front‑loaded investment in new growth engines such as digital platforms, cruise and an airfare‑aggregation business (TP Connects). ^[14]

A July trading update flagged that FY25 UPBT was likely to land between A$285m and A$295m, below the revised guidance range of A$300–335m, helping trigger a sharp one‑day sell‑off when the market digested the miss. ^[15]

April’s guidance cut and the A$200m share buyback

The turning point for sentiment in 2025 came on 28 April, when Flight Centre cut its FY25 profit guidance and simultaneously announced an on‑market share buyback of up to A$200m. ^[16]

Key points from that ASX announcement:

The original FY25 UPBT target of A$365–405m was lowered to A$300–335m after “uncertain trading conditions”, including new US trade and entry policies, began to bite. ^[17]
The company stressed that TTV was still on track for a record, but that weaker growth in core brands and increased volatility were crimping margins and leverage. ^[18]
Management flagged a series of cost and productivity moves – from a new Global Business Services division to targeted headcount reductions and lower capex – aimed at stabilising earnings. ^[19]
The approved buyback was framed as part of a broader capital management program, alongside dividends and managing outstanding convertible notes.

By the time the FY25 results landed in August, Flight Centre had already executed roughly A$450m in capital‑management initiatives, including: ^[20]

A A$200m convertible note buy‑back,
Around A$60m of on‑market share repurchases (under the up‑to‑A$200m program),
A$92m in fully‑franked dividends, and
A$100m of bank debt repayment.

This capital return story is one reason several brokers still assign FLT a positive rating despite earnings volatility.

FY26 guidance: profit growth back on the menu

At its 11 November 2025 outlook update and AGM commentary, Flight Centre set FY26 UPBT guidance at A$305–340m, implying 5.5% to 17.6% growth versus FY25’s A$289.1m. ^[21]

According to RTTNews and AGM coverage:

First‑half FY26 earnings are expected to be broadly in line with the prior year, with more of the uplift weighted to the second half. ^[22]
The corporate travel division is forecast to grow profits solidly, while leisure profits may dip in the first half due to ongoing volatility. ^[23]
Higher net interest costs are expected to slightly increase losses in the “Other” segment. ^[24]

At the AGM in Brisbane, management presented this as a “reasonably optimistic” outlook after what they described as a soft but cyclical FY25. They reiterated plans to keep underlying cost growth flat, trim FY26 capex by 15–20%, and continue pruning or repositioning under‑performing assets such as StudentUniverse, Canadian leisure and certain touring brands. ^[25]

New World360 loyalty program: a fresh growth lever

One of the most tangible catalysts for FLT in late 2025 is the launch of its World360 Rewards loyalty program, which management had flagged in the FY25 results and formally rolled out on 26 November 2025. ^[26]

Key features of World360 Rewards, according to the company:

Designed as an Australian travel‑focused loyalty platform, covering flights, hotels, cruises, tours and “everyday essentials” via one of the largest partner networks in the country.
Members can earn points across 500+ airlines, 900,000 hotels, 40+ cruise lines, 300,000+ tours and 300+ retail and lifestyle partners. ^[27]
The program is explicitly built to allow “triple dipping” – stacking World360 points with airline frequent‑flyer points and credit‑card rewards – aiming to create one of the fastest earn rates in the local market. ^[28]
Points can be redeemed on almost any travel product sold by participating brands, via a dedicated Rewards Store.
A paid Member Plus tier (A$249 per year) offers bonus points, lounge access, delay protection, a global eSIM and other perks. ^[29]

From a shareholder perspective, Flight Centre pitches World360 as a “new engine of growth” that should:

increase basket size and trip “attachment” rates,
deepen supplier relationships and margins, and
unlock richer customer data to power more personalised marketing. ^[30]

If successful, this could help lift margins in the leisure franchise, which currently carries a lot of volume through lower‑margin channels.

AI, Anthropic and the next structural test

Beyond loyalty, Flight Centre’s other big strategic swing is artificial intelligence.

The FY25 results presentation revealed that FLT has formed enterprise partnerships with data group Quantium and AI company Anthropic to embed AI into customer service, productivity and operations. The company says AI‑driven routing of incoming requests in its corporate division has processed more than 5 million queries and saved around 50,000 full‑time‑equivalent hours, while still improving customer experience. ^[31]

In business travel, FCM’s mobile assistant “Sam” has been “super‑powered” into an agentic AI virtual travel assistant, able to autonomously answer routine questions and perform travel tasks for clients. Leisure brands, meanwhile, are preparing to roll out AI “co‑captains” in stores to help consultants assemble trip proposals faster, supported by Salesforce‑based CRM and data‑cloud tools. ^[32]

A widely discussed Nightly article from 12 November framed AI as “Flight Centre’s next big test” after surviving 9/11, the GFC, the internet and the pandemic. Management told shareholders that AI will transform how travel is sold, while revealing that AI tools had already saved around 64,000 hours of staff time through smarter triage of customer queries. ^[33]

The article also underscored why the stakes feel so high:

Hedge funds and professional investors, wary that online and AI‑driven competition could erode the value of brick‑and‑mortar travel agencies, have helped push short interest to roughly 11% of shares on issue at times in 2025. ^[34]
Yet analysts quoted in the same piece argue that Flight Centre may actually benefit more than it loses from AI, given its scale, proprietary content and the enduring demand for human advice on complex, high‑value trips. ^[35]

The company’s own messaging is blunt: AI is both threat and opportunity, and 2026 will be an important proof‑of‑concept period for its AI investments.

Travel demand backdrop: corporate and leisure

Macro travel trends are crucial to the FLT story.

A September 2025 analysis of Australian airline and travel results found that Australians are travelling overseas in record numbers, with outbound trips up about 32% year‑on‑year in the 12 months to June 2025. Short‑ and mid‑haul Asian destinations – especially Japan, China, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Zealand – are booming, while US leisure travel has softened. Flight Centre’s own data showed an 11% drop in Australian bookings to the US in Q4 FY25, matching this trend. ^[36]

On the corporate side, an October 2025 survey of 1,200 FCM and Corporate Traveller clients found that 45% of buyers plan to increase business‑travel budgets over the July 2025–July 2026 period. SME travel volumes were up roughly 15–18% year‑on‑year in September, and Flight Centre’s Americas leadership described corporate travel as increasingly viewed as non‑discretionary, with companies focusing more on measuring travel ROI than cutting trips. ^[37]

Taken together, these trends support management’s argument that FY25 headwinds were largely cyclical, not structural: travellers are still flying and booking, but they are shifting destinations and booking closer to departure in response to geopolitical and economic uncertainty. ^[38]

Broker views, valuation signals and technical takes

Broker ratings and targets

Recent broker and analyst commentary paints a broadly constructive – if cautious – picture:

Jefferies upgraded FLT from Hold to Buy on 12 November 2025, raising its price target to A$14.00 after a positive year‑to‑date trading update and a return to profitability in Asia. ^[39]
Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating with a A$16.85 target price, implying around 35% upside from mid‑November trading levels. ^[40]
RBC Capital Markets also keeps a Buy rating and a A$16 target, citing corporate‑travel strength and bolt‑on M&A options, even as it acknowledges the market’s concerns about AI and store‑based distribution. ^[41]
A November broker wrap highlighted by The Motley Fool noted that Morgans includes Flight Centre in a basket of ASX dividend ideas, emphasising its potential upside when trading conditions normalise. ^[42]

Data aggregated by Simply Wall St shows that while consensus price targets have been trimmed during 2025, they still sit materially above the current share price, and several of the platform’s valuation models have at times suggested the stock could be 20–30% below intrinsic value after its recent falls. ^[43]

Profitability and returns

On traditional metrics, Flight Centre is back to being a moderately profitable business:

Yahoo/Simply Wall St analysis recently pegged FLT’s return on capital employed (ROCE) at around 11%, broadly in line with the travel‑services industry. However, earlier commentary this year flagged a longer‑term downward trend in ROCE, a sign that the company still needs to prove it can sustainably lift returns in a post‑pandemic world. ^[44]

Dividend profile

With A$0.40 per share in FY25 dividends (A$0.11 interim + A$0.29 final), Flight Centre is running a modest but rebuilding yield. At a share price of roughly A$13.50, that equates to a trailing yield of around 3% (fully franked), supported by a payout ratio just above 50%. ^[45]

Short‑term technicals

Short‑term technical models are currently tilted positive:

StockInvest’s system marks FLT as a short‑term buy candidate, citing buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages, a bullish 3‑month MACD and a recent pivot‑bottom breakout. Their model expects, with 90% probability, that the stock will trade in a A$11.67–13.73 range over the next three months, with support around A$12.23 and no clear resistance overhead at recent levels. ^[46]

As always, that’s a statistical view, not a guarantee – but it does help explain why short sellers are starting to take profits as the stock climbs off its lows.

Key risks to the Flight Centre investment case

Even with recovering profits and bullish broker targets, there are clear risks investors need to weigh:

Macro and geopolitics: FY25 showed how quickly travel demand can shift when tariffs, wars or political uncertainty flare up. Management itself warns of “ongoing turbulence” in early FY26. ^[47]
Structural competition and AI disruption: Online competitors and AI‑first travel platforms could pressure Flight Centre’s store‑heavy leisure network over time if its own AI and loyalty investments don’t keep pace. ^[48]
Execution risk on cost and capital plans: Holding underlying costs flat in a high‑inflation environment, while cutting capex and integrating AI, loyalty and cruising initiatives, is ambitious. If execution slips, margins might not improve as forecast. ^[49]
High short interest: Double‑digit short interest cuts both ways. It can set the stage for a sharp rally if sentiment flips, but it also signals that a sizeable cohort of sophisticated investors remains deeply sceptical. ^[50]

Bottom line: a classic cyclical battleground for 2026

Heading into calendar‑year 2026, Flight Centre is a textbook contrarian travel cyclical:

Fundamentals – record TTV, positive profit outlook, a strengthening balance sheet and new growth levers in loyalty, cruise and AI‑enhanced corporate travel. ^[51]
Sentiment – still bruised by guidance misses and structural fears, as reflected in double‑digit short interest and a share price well below pre‑pandemic highs. ^[52]

Analysts are broadly constructive, but not euphoric; shorts remain active, but are starting to edge back. For investors, that mix of improving fundamentals and unsettled sentiment is exactly what makes FLT such a closely watched name on the ASX right now.