Morgan Sindall (MGNS) and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG): Fresh News, Q3 2025 Results and Stock Forecasts as of 1 December 2025

UK construction specialist Morgan Sindall Group plc and market‑infrastructure giant London Stock Exchange Group plc are both heading into year‑end 2025 with upgraded outlooks, heavy investment in technology – and plenty of analyst attention. Here’s what’s changed, and how forecasts look now.

Snapshot as of 1 December 2025

As of 1 December 2025, both Morgan Sindall (LON: MGNS) and London Stock Exchange Group (LON: LSEG) sit at the intersection of two big UK themes:

a domestic infrastructure and regeneration story (MGNS), and
a global data‑and‑markets infrastructure story (LSEG), increasingly powered by AI, cloud and digital assets.

Morgan Sindall has upgraded its 2025 profit outlook again on the back of a booming Fit Out division and a record order book, while LSEG is posting mid‑single‑digit organic growth, raising margin guidance, and committing billions to share buybacks and strategic deals. ^[1]

At the same time, analyst price targets for both names currently imply further upside from recent levels, although the degree of potential depends on which data provider you look at – and of course comes with the usual market risks. ^[2]

Morgan Sindall: Upgraded outlook and a powerful Fit Out engine

Trading update: 2025 results “significantly ahead” of expectations

Morgan Sindall’s latest official trading update, released on 1–2 October 2025, marked another step‑up in guidance for the full year:

Full‑year 2025 results are now expected to be “significantly ahead” of previous expectations, driven primarily by the Fit Out division. ^[3]
Fit Out has “continued to strengthen significantly”, with a combination of strong trading and operational execution. Profits from this division are now expected to significantly exceed prior group expectations. ^[4]
The Fit Out secured order book stood at about £1.6bn as of 31 August 2025, up 8% on both the 2025 half‑year and 2024 year‑end positions, with more than half relating to work in 2026 and beyond – giving decent visibility into future revenue. ^[5]

Across the wider group:

The total secured order book reached approximately £12.2bn at 31 August 2025, 2% above the half‑year level and 7% ahead of year‑end 2024. ^[6]
Average daily net cash between 1 January and 30 September 2025 was about £361m, and management now expects full‑year average daily net cash to exceed £350m, ahead of previous guidance of £330m. ^[7]
Construction and Infrastructure are on track to deliver profits in line with prior guidance, supported by “high‑quality growing order books”, while Property Services is expected to post a modest profit. Mixed Use Partnerships (urban regeneration) is seeing higher near‑term investment, with second‑half losses expected to be roughly double the £1.5m loss reported in the first half. ^[8]

The group’s full‑year 2025 results are scheduled for 25 February 2026, a key upcoming catalyst. ^[9]

Half‑year 2025: softer revenue, but strong long‑term pipeline

Within Morgan Sindall Infrastructure – a large slice of the group – the HY 2025 numbers looked more mixed:

Revenue fell around 9% to £482m versus HY 2024, and operating profit dipped about 7% to £18.4m, but
Operating margin ticked up to 3.8% from 3.7%, and
The Infrastructure order book rose 11% to £1,873m, with about 98% of work coming through long‑term framework agreements across energy, nuclear, rail, highways, water and defence. ^[10]

This combination – softer near‑term revenue but a larger, longer‑duration pipeline – underpins the group’s confidence that higher investment in UK infrastructure and energy transition projects will support work for years, not quarters.

Share price momentum: breaking above the 200‑day moving average

Into the end of November, Morgan Sindall’s share price has been showing clear technical strength:

On 28 November 2025, the shares broke above their 200‑day moving average (around 4,363p), trading as high as 4,710p and closing at roughly 4,705p on the day, on solid trading volume. ^[11]

That break above a long‑term moving average is being interpreted by some technical‑oriented investors as a sign of improving sentiment after a tough period for UK construction names.

Morgan Sindall: Analyst ratings and stock forecasts

Across the main forecast aggregators, Morgan Sindall currently sits in “Buy” / “Strong Buy” territory, though methodologies differ slightly.

Key datapoints:

MarketBeat reports that three analysts covering MGNS have all issued Buy ratings, with a consensus 12‑month upside of about 7–8% from their reference price. ^[12]
A more detailed MarketBeat note on 28 November highlights that:
- Berenberg raised its target from 5,000p to 5,250p with a Buy rating.
- The average price target across its sample is roughly 5,016.7p. ^[13]
TradingView’s aggregation shows an average target near 5,008p, with a range of about 4,400p–5,250p, and a consensus recommendation of Buy. ^[14]
Investing.com and MarketScreener similarly show a Buy consensus from around 5–6 analysts, with average targets in the region of £49–£50 per share (4,900–5,000p). On older last‑close prices, that translated into roughly 15% implied upside; after the recent rally, the gap is smaller but still positive. ^[15]
TipRanks lists Morgan Sindall as a “Moderate Buy” with its AI tool (“Spark”) rating the stock Outperform, and notes at least one recent Buy rating with a price target in the mid‑£40s region. ^[16]

Putting these together, consensus is broadly:

Morgan Sindall is seen as fundamentally high quality, cash‑rich and structurally well‑placed in UK infrastructure and fit out.
From current levels around the high‑£40s per share, mainstream analyst targets generally imply single‑digit to low‑double‑digit percentage upside on a 12‑month view, assuming the upgraded 2025 guidance is delivered.

None of this guarantees performance, but it sets the backdrop: expectations are high, but not euphoric, and much now depends on the February 2026 numbers and any signs of slowdown in Fit Out.

London Stock Exchange Group: Strong Q3, buybacks and a bid for higher margins

Q3 2025 trading update: growth across all business lines

London Stock Exchange Group’s Q3 2025 trading update, published on 23 October, showed the group’s strategy of pivoting from “just an exchange” to a global data and infrastructure provider continuing to gain traction:

Total income (excluding recoveries) rose 6.4% organically, with 6.7% growth including M&A. ^[17]
Data & Analytics (the largest division, including Refinitiv) grew 4.9% organically, with:
- Data & Feeds up 6.6%, helped by demand for machine‑readable news and pricing data for AI use cases.
- Analytics up 7.7%, driven by strong sales of its Analytics API and distribution via platforms such as Databricks. ^[18]
FTSE Russell delivered 9.3% organic growth, benefiting from asset‑based revenue (index‑linked products and ETFs) rising about 18%. ^[19]
Risk Intelligence – screening and KYC/AML services – led the pack with around 13.9% organic growth, as demand rises for more sophisticated sanctions and identity checks. ^[20]
The Markets division (trading and post‑trade) grew roughly 6.3%, supported by solid activity in fixed income, derivatives and FX. ^[21]

Crucially, management raised its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance to the top end of the previous range, pointing to better‑than‑expected operating leverage. It also reiterated guidance for:

6.5–7.5% organic constant‑currency growth in total income (excluding recoveries) in 2025,
Capital expenditure of about 10% of that income, and
Equity free cash flow of at least £2.4bn for the year. ^[22]

Post‑trade deal and ramped‑up buybacks

On the same day, LSEG unveiled a complex but significant deal in its clearing business:

A 20% stake in its Post Trade Solutions (PTS) clearing unit will be sold to a consortium of 11 major banks for £170m, valuing PTS at £850m. ^[23]
LSEG will pay about £1.15bn (mostly in 2025) to increase its share of surplus revenues from the flagship SwapClear interest‑rate swaps business, cutting banks’ revenue share. ^[24]
The transaction is expected to boost Markets division EBITDA margin by ~250 basis points and group margin by ~100 basis points from 2025, and to be 2–3% accretive to adjusted EPS in the current year. ^[25]

Alongside this, the company:

Completed a £500m share buyback in H1 2025,
Accelerated a further £1bn buyback announced in July, with about £938m completed by 22 October 2025, and
Announced plans for another £1bn buyback to be completed by the 2025 full‑year results (scheduled for 26 February 2026), likely splitting that between late 2025 and early 2026. ^[26]

Reuters reported that LSEG shares jumped by as much as 9% on the day of the Q3 update and post‑trade deal news, albeit from a level that still left them more than 15% lower year‑to‑date at that point. ^[27]

Tech overhaul and AI‑driven efficiency

Beyond the headline numbers, LSEG continues to reshape its technology workforce and platforms:

Financial News reports that LSEG has reduced its engineering headcount by around 3,000 since early 2024, taking it from about 17,000 to 14,000, while insourcing ~2,000 contractors and shifting more roles to India. ^[28]
The group aims to have around 80% of its engineering workforce as permanent internal staff by 2027, up from 58% today.
Despite the 18% cut in headcount, engineering productivity is said to have risen by about 11%, with AI tools further boosting individual productivity by up to a third in some cases. ^[29]

At the same time, LSEG is pushing deeper into blockchain‑based infrastructure:

It has committed roughly £100m to a new Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI) platform, officially launched in September 2025.
DMI uses tokenisation – digital representations of real‑world assets – to streamline issuance, trading and settlement, initially focused on private funds, with plans to expand into more asset classes over time.
The platform is being built in partnership with Microsoft, which provides cloud infrastructure, and already has around 30 large institutional participants in early stages. ^[30]

This is a longer‑term bet: monetisation is expected to follow once efficiency gains and client adoption have been demonstrated.

Governance and market integrity headlines

Other recent LSEG‑related news that may matter to investors:

The Total Voting Rights announcement on 1 December 2025 confirmed that the group has 537,650,105 ordinary shares in issue, of which 24,051,599 are held in treasury, leaving 513,598,506 voting shares. This is the official denominator shareholders must use for major holding notifications under UK rules. ^[31]
A separate report suggests the London Stock Exchange is preparing a crackdown on so‑called “wild west” online bulletin boards, concerned about market abuse and pump‑and‑dump style activity in smaller stocks. ^[32]
LSE’s CEO has also been vocal on executive pay and London’s competitiveness, arguing that UK boards must be more flexible on pay packages to attract global talent, even as shareholder scrutiny remains intense. ^[33]

All of this feeds into a bigger narrative: LSEG is trying to position itself as a modern, tech‑forward, systemically important market utility, while simultaneously signalling that London is serious about both innovation and market integrity.

LSEG: Analyst ratings and price targets

Here, analyst optimism is even more pronounced than for Morgan Sindall.

From LSEG’s own analyst consensus (12 November 2025):

17 Buy ratings and 1 Hold, with no Sell ratings.
A consensus target price of 12,244p.
The closing price on 11 November was 9,186p, implying a theoretical upside of a little over 30% at that point. ^[34]

Other sources broadly agree:

MarketBeat notes a consensus Buy from seven major analysts, with an average 12‑month price target of about £126.17, and target ranges mostly in the £119–£135 band from houses including JPMorgan, Jefferies, RBC, Deutsche Bank and Citi. ^[35]
A ValueInvesting.io screen shows an average target around £127.0 per share, with a range of roughly £111–£144, and a consensus recommendation of BUY. It estimates upside of around 40–45% based on its reference price. ^[36]
A recent analysis piece notes a minor tweak to one broker’s target – from £123.11 to £123.09 – but still well above current trading levels, underscoring that changes right now are about fine‑tuning, not a fundamental downgrade. ^[37]
In the US, the unsponsored ADR LSEGY has been upgraded by Zacks to a Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting more upbeat earnings‑estimate revisions. ^[38]

The broad message: the sell‑side largely sees LSEG as a growth‑at‑scale compounder, with:

mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit organic revenue growth,
incremental margin expansion, and
heavy cash returns via dividends and sizeable buybacks,

justifying a premium valuation, as long as competitive and regulatory risks are contained.

Macro backdrop: UK risk, but not just a UK story

Both stocks are listed in London and unavoidably exposed to UK sentiment.

Recent days have seen UK equities respond positively to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tax‑raising budget, which nonetheless calmed some bond‑market nerves by increasing fiscal “headroom” for the coming years. The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both rallied sharply on 26 November as investors judged the budget to be more reassuring than feared. ^[39]

However, the operational drivers differ:

Morgan Sindall is still predominantly a UK construction, infrastructure and regeneration play. Its long‑term frameworks in energy, nuclear, water and defence give structural support, but earnings remain sensitive to project timing, cost inflation and government capital spending cycles. ^[40]
LSEG, by contrast, is increasingly a global data and infrastructure provider, with meaningful revenue from indices, analytics, risk and trading services across the US, Europe and Asia. Demand for high‑quality, machine‑readable data for AI and risk management is a global theme, not a purely UK one. ^[41]

That divergence is reflected in analyst narratives: Morgan Sindall is often discussed in the context of UK construction and housing cycles, while LSEG is framed alongside global data giants and exchanges – with investors debating how AI and new competitors may affect its moat. ^[42]

Key risks and catalysts to watch

Morgan Sindall (MGNS)

Main risk factors often highlighted by analysts and commentators include:

Cyclical exposure to UK construction and commercial real estate. A sharp slowdown in fit‑out demand or a pause in public‑sector infrastructure spending could hit growth. ^[43]
Cost inflation and labour constraints, which can compress margins on fixed‑price contracts.
Project execution risk, particularly in complex infrastructure and regeneration schemes.

Key upcoming catalysts:

Full‑year 2025 results on 25 February 2026, where investors will look for confirmation that earnings really are “significantly ahead” of prior expectations and that the Fit Out order book remains robust. ^[44]
Any new framework wins or large project awards in energy, transport or defence, which can materially shift the medium‑term revenue outlook. ^[45]

London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)

For LSEG, the risk/reward hinges on a different set of issues:

Competitive pressure from other data vendors and market‑infrastructure providers, especially in a world where AI models can process more raw public data. LSEG argues much of its data is proprietary, curated or not easily replicable – but investors will watch this closely. ^[46]
Regulatory risk, including scrutiny of clearing, index governance and data pricing.
Execution risk on complex tech initiatives such as DMI (blockchain platform) and the large‑scale engineering revamp, where delays or cost overruns could dent margin ambitions. ^[47]

Upcoming catalysts:

2025 full‑year results on 26 February 2026, where the market will focus on:
- Delivery against the 6.5–7.5% income growth target,
- The new, higher EBITDA margin guidance, and
- Progress on the latest £1bn share buyback. ^[48]
Further detail on DMI’s transaction volumes, client adoption and product roadmap, which will help investors judge whether the £100m blockchain bet is likely to generate meaningful returns. ^[49]

Bottom line

As of 1 December 2025, Morgan Sindall and London Stock Exchange Group offer two distinct – but complementary – ways to play:

the physical economy of UK infrastructure, construction and regeneration (MGNS), and
the digital infrastructure of global data, indices, risk and markets (LSEG).

Both companies are entering 2026 with:

Upgraded outlooks and strong order books or subscription pipelines,
Solid balance sheets and significant cash generation, and
Analyst communities that are, on balance, firmly in the “Buy” camp. ^[50]

That said, share prices have already moved on the recent good news, and the usual caveats apply: forecasts can change quickly, markets can be volatile, and this article is for information only – it is not personal investment advice. Anyone considering these stocks should weigh their own risk tolerance, investment horizon and diversification needs, and where necessary seek regulated financial advice.