As of 1 December 2025, Bunzl plc shares remain in recovery mode after a year defined by a sharp profit warning, a subsequent derating and a cautiously optimistic trading recovery in the second half of the year. The FTSE 100 distribution and services group has reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, resumed its share buyback programme and continues to lean on acquisitions, while investors weigh margin pressure in North America against resilient cash generation and a long dividend track record. [1]
Bunzl share price today: still around 40% below its 52‑week high
Bunzl’s primary London listing (ticker: BNZL) last closed at 2,164p on Friday 28 November 2025, with an opening trade around 2,150p and an intraday range between roughly 2,132p and 2,174p. [2]
Over the past 12 months the stock has fallen close to 40% from a 52‑week high of 3,622p to recent levels just above 2,100p. [3] StockInvest’s quantitative model calculates a one‑year change of about ‑39.6% and currently categorises Bunzl as a hold candidate, having upgraded it from a sell rating, with a “fair” projected opening price for 1 December 2025 of roughly 2,157p. [4]
With approximately 324.2 million shares now in issue and no treasury stock, Bunzl’s equity market capitalisation stands at around £7–7.5 billion at current prices. [5]
2025: from profit warning shock to stabilising outlook
April profit warning and outlook cut
The turning point for 2025 came on 16 April, when Bunzl issued a Q1 trading statement cutting its full‑year outlook and pausing its share buyback programme. [6]
Key points from that update:
- Group revenue in Q1 2025 grew 2.6% at constant exchange rates, but underlying revenue (adjusted for trading days and hyperinflation effects) fell 0.9%.
- Adjusted operating profit declined “significantly” year‑on‑year, driven mainly by margin pressure in North America and Continental Europe.
- Management reduced 2025 guidance to “moderate” revenue growth at constant exchange rates, with underlying revenue broadly flat and group operating margin moderately below 8.0% versus 8.3% in 2024. [7]
- To preserve balance sheet flexibility amid macro uncertainty and execution challenges, the existing share buyback programme was paused for the rest of 2025, after around £115m of purchases. [8]
The warning highlighted serious execution issues in Bunzl’s largest North American distribution business, where a shift to a new operating model and an expanded own‑brand offering coincided with deflation and softer demand, leading to a sharp drop in profitability. [9]
This announcement triggered a one‑day share price fall of more than 25%, taking Bunzl to a near four‑year low, according to Reuters. [10]
Half‑year 2025: margins under pressure, cash flow resilient
The half‑year results to 30 June 2025 reinforced the narrative of revenue resilience but margin compression:
- Revenue increased 4.2% to about £5.76 billion.
- Underlying revenue slipped 0.2%, with organic revenue (unadjusted for trading days) down 0.7%.
- Adjusted operating profit fell 7.6% to c.£404.5 million, with the operating margin down from 8.0% to 7.0%.
- In North America, adjusted operating profit dropped roughly 14.7% at constant exchange rates. [11]
Despite weaker margins, Bunzl’s cash generation remained strong:
- Cash conversion was reported at about 97%, ahead of the group’s long‑term 90% target.
- Free cash flow was around £243m, down about 22% year‑on‑year but still robust.
- Adjusted net debt to EBITDA stood at 1.9x, near the lower end of the targeted 2.0–2.5x range. [12]
Management outlined a series of corrective actions in North America, including leadership changes, cost savings, re‑empowering local teams on pricing and inventory, and better balancing own‑brand and third‑party supplier relationships. Early indicators were described as positive, but many benefits are not expected to fully show through until 2026. [13]
Q3 trading: guidance reaffirmed, margin decline moderating
The Q3 2025 trading statement published on 21 October marked a stabilisation point for Bunzl’s narrative. [14]
For the quarter since 30 June:
- Group revenue grew 0.6% at constant exchange rates.
- Underlying revenue increased 0.4% despite continued “challenging end markets”.
- Net acquisitions contributed about 1.4% revenue growth, while fewer trading days reduced revenue by 1.1%.
- At actual exchange rates, revenue declined 0.8%.
Crucially for investors, Bunzl reported that the year‑on‑year operating margin decline moderated compared with the first half. Full‑year guidance was left unchanged:
- Moderate revenue growth in 2025 at constant exchange rates.
- Underlying revenue expected to be broadly flat.
- Group operating margin moderately below 8.0%, versus 8.3% in 2024, with margin decline easing in H2 versus H1. [15]
The group also updated investors on capital allocation:
- Around £190m of a £200m 2025 buyback had been completed by October.
- Leverage is expected to be just over, and trending towards, 2.0x net debt/EBITDA at year‑end 2025, after acquisitions and buybacks. [16]
Buybacks, share count and voting rights
After the April pause, Bunzl resumed its £200m buyback in August, a move that saw the shares jump about 5% on the day as the market welcomed the signal of renewed confidence. [17]
The cumulative effect of buybacks has been visible in the share count:
- The half‑year report noted a weighted average of 326.9 million shares, down from 335.4 million in the prior period. [18]
- As per the latest RNS on 1 December 2025, Bunzl’s share capital now consists of 324,211,429 ordinary shares, each with one vote, and the company holds no shares in treasury. [19]
For investors tracking ownership thresholds, that 324.2m figure is now the denominator for UK disclosure rules on significant shareholdings. [20]
Acquisitions: still central to Bunzl’s growth model
Acquisitions remain at the core of Bunzl’s long‑term “compounding” strategy. In 2025 the group has continued to deploy capital into bolt‑on deals across multiple geographies and sectors:
- April: entry into the Chilean healthcare market and acquisition of a Dutch medical firm, expanding the healthcare distribution footprint. [21]
- August: acquisitions of Quindesur in Spain and Gisa in Mexico, alongside previously announced deals for Brazilian packaging firm Solupack and Chilean healthcare distributor Hospitalia. [22]
- October: acquisitions of Caterline Catering Equipment in Ireland and Anta y Jesús in Spain, each generating around €6m (£5m) of 2024 revenue, strengthening Bunzl’s foodservice and catering equipment presence in Europe. [23]
This deal flow continues a record acquisition spend in recent years and underpins management’s expectation of moderate revenue growth despite flat underlying volumes and pricing. [24]
Dividend, yield and payout: Bunzl’s income case
Bunzl has long been a favourite among UK income investors thanks to its multi‑decade record of dividend growth.
For the 2024 financial year:
- The board recommended a final dividend of 53.8p, taking the full‑year dividend to 73.9p, up 8.2% year‑on‑year.
- This marked the 32nd consecutive year of annual dividend growth.
- Dividend cover for 2024 stood just above 2.6x, with further “normalisation” of cover expected in 2025. [25]
For 2025 so far:
- Bunzl has announced an interim dividend of 20.2p per share, payable on 5 January 2026 to shareholders on the register by 14 November, with an ex‑dividend date of 13 November. Management expects 2025 dividend cover around 2.4x. [26]
Based on current share prices around 2,150–2,200p, the implied dividend yield is in the region of 3.2–3.4%, broadly in line with figures from Morningstar and recent analyst commentary. [27]
DirectorsTalk’s recent investor note highlighted Bunzl’s dividend yield of roughly 3.2% and estimated a payout ratio of 50.8%, emphasising the balance between shareholder returns and financial flexibility. [28]
Fundamentals in 2024 and 2025: low growth, solid returns
Looking at the last reported full year, Bunzl generated 2024 revenue of about £11.78 billion with net profit of £500 million, implying a net margin a little above 4%. [29] Return on equity has been estimated at around 18%, underlining the group’s ability to convert a low‑margin distribution model into solid shareholder returns. [30]
Half‑year 2025 numbers show:
- Revenue up 4.2%.
- Underlying revenue slightly negative.
- Adjusted operating margin down to 7.0%.
- North America still the main drag, with revenue down 2.3% and profit down double digits in that business area. [31]
Despite this, Bunzl continues to throw off strong cash flow, maintain high cash conversion and operate with moderate leverage, prompting some analysts and quant models to highlight its financial strength. Investing.com notes, for example, that the company scores a perfect 9 on the Piotroski F‑Score, a metric of balance sheet and earnings quality. [32]
A recent fundamentals‑focused review described Bunzl’s financial profile as “pretty strong” and expects future earnings growth to be broadly similar to its current trajectory – essentially a low‑single‑digit growth compounder rather than a high‑growth story. [33]
Analyst ratings and price targets: cautious but with upside
London listing (BNZL)
MarketBeat’s latest summary for Bunzl’s London‑listed shares shows a consensus rating of “Hold” from six brokerages, split into 2 sells, 1 hold and 3 buys, with an average 12‑month price target of 2,728p. [34]
That target implies roughly 25% upside from recent prices around 2,170p, but the distribution of recommendations is wide:
- Jefferies: Underperform, target 1,900p.
- UBS: Sell, target 2,200p.
- RBC: Sector Perform, target 2,350p.
- Shore Capital: Buy, target 3,040p. [35]
A separate investor‑oriented piece in early November aggregated 18 analyst views and found 7 buys, 6 holds and 5 sells, with an average target price of about 2,629p, implying 13.7% potential upside from a then share price of 2,312p. [36]
Bernstein SocGen has reiterated an Outperform rating on Bunzl with a price target of £29.00 (2,900p), citing:
- Improved pricing in Q3, with estimated price increases of about 0.5% and only a small 0.1% volume decline.
- Modest revenue growth of just under 2% over the last twelve months.
- A trailing P/E multiple around 16.7x.
- Forecast EPS for 2026 and 2027 that sit 5% and 9% above consensus, respectively, helped by margin expectations and share buybacks. [37]
The same report notes that Goldman Sachs recently upgraded Bunzl from Sell to Neutral and raised its target price from £23.75 to £25.10, arguing that after a ~30% share price drop, risk/reward has become more balanced and the resumption of buybacks reduces near‑term downside risk. [38]
US over‑the‑counter listing (BZLFY)
For US investors, Bunzl trades as an OTC ADR under ticker BZLFY. MarketBeat’s separate coverage of this line shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus from nine brokerages, with five hold ratings, one buy and three strong buys – slightly more optimistic than the UK‑line consensus. [39]
Technical and quantitative signals
On the technical side, several indicators flag that Bunzl remains in a post‑warning consolidation rather than a clean uptrend:
- The stock has been trading below its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages (around 2,443p and 2,626p respectively in early November). [40]
- StockInvest’s model records a 52‑week range of 2,072.9p–3,622p, with the current price close to the lower end of that band. [41]
- The same model has upgraded its stance from “Sell” to “Hold”, describing Bunzl as a hold/accumulate candidate at current levels pending clearer trend confirmation. [42]
Key risks investors are watching
Several themes dominate the risk discussion around Bunzl as 2025 draws to a close:
- North America execution risk
The biggest single issue remains the transformation of Bunzl’s largest North American business, where a new operating model and own‑brand push initially led to lost agility, customer volume loss and higher costs. Management actions are showing early positive signs, but Bunzl itself has flagged that some benefits will not be visible until well into 2026. [43] - Margin pressure and deflation
Continental Europe has seen margin pressure from post‑Covid price normalisation in cleaning and hygiene, weak macro conditions and cost inflation. The group expects easier comparatives and ongoing cost actions to support a better H2 performance, but visibility remains limited. [44] - Tariff and macro uncertainty
Bunzl has highlighted uncertainty around tariffs, especially in Asia, and their potential impact on both inflation and demand. Higher tariffs can support pricing but may dampen volumes – a delicate balance for a high‑volume distributor. [45] - Acquisition integration and dependence
The business model relies heavily on a steady stream of bolt‑on acquisitions. While this has historically driven growth, it also introduces integration risk and makes future growth partly contingent on finding attractive targets at reasonable valuations. [46]
Is Bunzl plc stock a buy, hold or sell now?
Bunzl’s 2025 story is one of derated quality: a historically reliable, cash‑generative compounder that has stumbled on execution in a key region, cut guidance, but is now demonstrating stabilisation and incremental improvement.
At current prices, the shares trade materially below their 2024 highs, with:
- A mid‑teens earnings multiple (roughly 14–17x, depending on the source and time of measurement). [47]
- A dividend yield in the low‑3% range, backed by strong cash conversion and a long record of growth. [48]
- Consensus analyst targets suggesting mid‑teens to mid‑twenties percentage upside over 12 months, but with a wide spread between bears and bulls. [49]
The broad message from professional coverage is that Bunzl is no longer priced as a near‑bulletproof defensive, but rather as a slow‑growth distributor with genuine execution risk – and corresponding opportunity if its North American turnaround and acquisition pipeline deliver.
For more cautious investors, the prevailing “Hold” consensus reflects a desire to see firmer evidence of margin stabilisation and organic growth before re‑rating the stock. For long‑term income and quality‑tilted investors, the combination of a durable business model, strong balance sheet, resumed buybacks and a long dividend track record continues to make Bunzl a candidate for further research – particularly at a time when the share price still trades well below its recent peak.
References
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