Tesla Stock on December 1, 2025: Europe Slumps, Michael Burry Sounds the Alarm and Wall Street Resets Its Forecasts

Published: December 1, 2025 – ticker: TSLA (NASDAQ)

Tesla stock is starting December under pressure from fresh European and China concerns, a high‑profile short seller calling the shares “ridiculously overvalued,” and Wall Street forecasts that now imply downside from today’s price, even as long‑term bulls still see four‑digit targets for the next decade. ^[1]

Tesla stock price today

As of early afternoon on December 1, 2025, Tesla shares were trading around $430.17, up roughly 0.8% on the day.

TipRanks reported that the stock opened the week softer, down about 1.4% in pre‑market trading before recovering later in the session, as investors took profits after a strong prior week and digested weak China EV data. ^[2]

Year to date, different outlets put Tesla’s 2025 gain in the mid‑single to low double‑digit range: Investors Business Daily has cited an advance of about 6.5%, while Business Insider notes that the stock is up roughly 11% in 2025, helped by enthusiasm around Tesla’s robotaxi rollout. ^[3]

That performance comes after a huge run‑up and violent sell‑off over the past year. Tesla hit an all‑time high in late 2024 around the high‑$470s to high‑$480s per share, depending on the data source, before dropping by nearly half over the next three months as EV sales slowed and investors questioned whether the stock’s valuation could be justified by fundamentals. ^[4]

Fresh headwinds from Europe and China

European registrations plunge

The most immediate negative catalyst today is weak November sales data out of Europe.

A new Reuters analysis shows that Tesla’s November registrations – a proxy for new car sales – halved year over year in several key European markets:

France: registrations down 58% to 1,593 vehicles
Sweden: down 59% to 1,466
Denmark: down 49% to 534 ^[5]

Spain tells a similar story. New Tesla sales there fell 8.75% year over year in November to 1,523 vehicles. Over the first eleven months of 2025, Tesla’s Spanish sales are still up 5.56%, but the broader category of electrified vehicles (EVs plus hybrids) has doubled, implying meaningful market‑share loss. ^[6]

There are pockets of strength: in Norway, registrations nearly tripled to 6,215 vehicles, a 175% jump that set a new annual sales record with one month left in the year. Model Y sales in Norway climbed about 19%, even as they fell sharply in Sweden and Denmark. ^[7]

But the headline picture from Europe is clear: Tesla’s growth is stalling or reversing in several mature markets, even as cheaper Chinese and European rivals expand.

Brand fatigue, politics and competition

Reuters cites an Escalent survey of more than 2,000 consumers in Europe’s five largest car markets in which 38% said Tesla’s “novelty has worn off” and the brand now trails competitors on design, quality and emotional appeal. ^[8]

Analysts also highlight:

Intensifying competition, particularly from Chinese automakers, in a crowded EV market
Tesla’s aging line‑up, with the Model 3 and Model Y carrying most of the volume
Slower EV demand growth overall in Europe

Tesla’s own actions may be contributing to the problem. The company has launched a cheaper Model Y variant in Europe at around €40,000 in Germany, but Reuters reports that only a small number of these lower‑priced vehicles arrived by the end of November, limiting their ability to offset the sales slump. ^[9]

Tesla’s European slowdown began late last year, shortly after CEO Elon Musk publicly supported far‑right political figures, prompting protests and calls for boycotts. While Musk has since toned down political commentary, Reuters notes that Tesla’s European business has not fully recovered, suggesting deeper competitive and brand challenges. ^[10]

China concerns re‑emerge

China remains another pressure point. TipRanks highlights new data showing that a trio of leading Chinese EV makers delivered 106,184 vehicles in November, just 6% higher than a year earlier – the slowest growth rate for China’s EV market in 2025. Tesla does not report monthly regional data, but its deliveries in China through October were already down about 7% year over year, and the weak broader numbers are raising concerns about demand for Tesla’s Shanghai output. ^[11]

Add in the fact that China’s BYD is now the world’s largest EV seller and has started bundling advanced driver‑assistance features as a standard, no‑extra‑cost option, and the competitive pressure on Tesla’s pricing power becomes even clearer. ^[12]

Risk‑off mood weighs on big tech and the “Magnificent Seven”

Tesla’s stock is not trading in a vacuum. U.S. futures for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow all opened lower on December 1, with investors shifting away from high‑growth and AI‑linked names after a strong November. ^[13]

Investopedia notes that all seven “Magnificent Seven” mega‑cap tech stocks – Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Tesla – were down in early pre‑market trading as concerns mounted around stretched valuations and heavy AI spending. ^[14]

That broader risk‑off backdrop magnifies any Tesla‑specific worries around Europe, China or valuation.

Michael Burry calls Tesla “ridiculously overvalued”

Into this mix comes Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor famous for betting against the U.S. housing market before the 2008 crisis.

In a new Substack post published over the weekend, Burry argued that Tesla’s market capitalization is “ridiculously overvalued” and has been for a long time. He points in particular to: ^[15]

Tesla’s price‑to‑earnings multiple, which he says far exceeds that of traditional automakers
The risk of share dilution tied to Elon Musk’s newly approved $1 trillion pay package, which pays out largely in stock over the coming decade
What he characterizes as a series of shifting narratives: from EV dominance, to autonomous driving leadership, to humanoid robots and “physical AI,” each time competition catches up

Burry previously disclosed a massive put position against Tesla shares in 2021 before exiting a few months later. His renewed criticism comes as Tesla trades at roughly 260 times this year’s forecast earnings, using a share price around $430 and a 2025 EPS consensus of $1.64. ^[16]

Reuters has separately estimated that Tesla’s forward P/E is more than nine times the average of the next 25 most valuable automakers and two to three times the multiples of several mega‑cap tech peers, even after the stock’s big drawdown earlier this year. ^[17]

Burry’s critique taps into a broader question that has haunted Tesla for years: how long can the stock stay disconnected from its core auto earnings, given that much of its valuation rests on robotaxis and robots that do not yet exist at scale? ^[18]

What Tesla’s latest earnings tell us

Tesla’s Q3 2025 results, released on October 22, are the most recent hard look at the company’s fundamentals.

According to Tesla’s investor presentation: ^[19]

Total revenue rose to $28.1 billion, up roughly 11–12% from $25.2 billion a year earlier
Net income attributable to common shareholders fell to about $1.37 billion, down around 37% year over year
Diluted EPS dropped from $0.62 to $0.39, underscoring margin pressure despite higher sales
Automotive revenue reached $21.2 billion, still the bulk of the business
Energy generation and storage revenue jumped to $3.4 billion (about 44% growth year on year)
Services and other revenue climbed to $3.5 billion, up roughly 25%

In short, Tesla is growing again at the top line but earning less profit per dollar of sales than it did a year ago, as price cuts, new product ramp‑ups and restructuring costs weigh on margins.

Energy and AI become bigger pieces of the story

The Q3 deck also highlights how Tesla is leaning on its energy and AI/software businesses to drive future profitability: ^[20]

The company reported record quarterly energy storage deployments, supported by the ramp‑up of Megafactory Shanghai and strong Powerwall demand, with energy storage gross profit over the trailing 12 months reaching about $1.1 billion.
Tesla unveiled Megablock, a new industrial storage product built around Megapack 3 that simplifies utility‑scale installations, with planned production in Houston from 2026.
Tesla is rolling out FSD (Supervised) v14, which incorporates more of its robotaxi neural‑network stack and improves behavior in complex driving scenarios.
The company says its AI training cluster, “Cortex,” now has the equivalent of 81,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs, and it has announced a deal with Samsung to manufacture advanced AI semiconductors in the U.S.
Tesla has launched robotaxi services in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area on a limited basis and is building first‑generation production lines for its Optimus humanoid robot, with volume production targeted for 2026.

Management reiterates that over time, it expects AI, software and fleet‑based services to account for an increasing share of profits, as hardware margins come under pressure. ^[21]

Wall Street’s 12‑month Tesla stock forecast

Wall Street remains deeply split on Tesla’s near‑term upside, but most major datasets point to a muted or slightly negative expected return from today’s price.

Consensus targets and ratings

TipRanks tracks 34 analysts and finds a “Hold” consensus:
- 13 Buy, 11 Hold, 10 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target:$383.04, implying about 11% downside from recent levels ^[22]
Public.com, aggregating 26 analysts, also shows a “Hold” consensus:
- Roughly half of analysts rate Tesla Buy or Strong Buy, but a sizeable minority rate it Sell or Strong Sell
- Average target: about $378.50, effectively flat to slightly below the current price ^[23]
StockAnalysis.com, using data from Benzinga and Finnhub, reports 27 covering analysts with a more optimistic “Buy” consensus:
- Average target:$383.96, again about 10–11% below today’s price
- Range of targets runs from $19.05 on the low end to $600 on the high end, reflecting extraordinary disagreement about Tesla’s future. ^[24]

Even within the bullish camp, expectations vary widely. Recent notes include:

Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh maintaining a Buy rating with a slightly trimmed target of $475
Stifel’s Stephen Gengaro reiterating a Strong Buy with a $508 target
Wedbush’s Daniel Ives sticking with an aggressively bullish $600 target, implying nearly 40% upside from current levels ^[25]

Earnings and growth forecasts

Analysts also expect a profit dip in 2025 followed by a rebound:

Revenue 2025: about $97.1B, slightly down (~0.7%) versus 2024
Revenue 2026: roughly $109.8B, implying ~13% growth
EPS 2025:$1.64, down nearly 20% from 2024’s $2.04
EPS 2026:$2.14, a 30%+ rebound versus 2025 ^[26]

That pattern — near‑term margin and EPS pressure but renewed growth as robotaxis, Optimus and energy scale — is central to the bullish thesis. Bears counter that these forecasts already assume a lot going right and still struggle to justify today’s valuation multiples.

Nasdaq’s earnings page currently shows a consensus EPS forecast of $0.33 for the fiscal quarter ending December 2025, with estimates largely unchanged over the past month, underscoring the market’s “wait‑and‑see” stance. ^[27]

Longer‑term Tesla stock forecasts: 2026–2030 and beyond

If the 12‑month view is cautious, the multi‑year forecasts are all over the map.

Algorithmic and aggregated forecasts

An analytical roundup by FXOpen, which compiles projections from several forecasting websites, offers an illustrative range for Tesla’s potential path: ^[28]

End of 2025:
- Most bullish: around $786
- Most bearish: about $442
2026:
- Bullish mid‑year: roughly $1,026
- Bullish end‑year: up to $1,213
- Bearish end‑year: near $233
2027–2030:
- Various bullish scenarios see Tesla between $1,200 and $1,800+
- More cautious models hold it in a $350–700 range

Beyond 2030, some sources quoted in the same survey suggest Tesla could exceed $1,600 by 2035, with certain ultra‑bullish models projecting $4,000+ per share by 2050. Others are far more conservative, keeping the stock closer to current levels even over long periods. ^[29]

Another forecast aggregator, StocksGuide, finds that 48 analysts’ 2026 price targets cluster around an average of roughly $418, only a few percent below today’s price, again underscoring the lack of a strong consensus on dramatic upside. ^[30]

ARK Invest and the robotaxi super‑bull case

On the extremely bullish end, ARK Invest has projected that Tesla shares could reach about $2,600 by 2029, with robotaxis accounting for nearly 90% of that valuation in its model. Reuters’ review of multiple bank models found similar structures, with a relatively small portion of Tesla’s value attributed to the current auto business and the majority tied to: ^[31]

Paid self‑driving software subscriptions
Robotaxi fleets
Optimus humanoid robots and related services

These optimistic models assume that Tesla successfully scales autonomous driving, overcomes regulatory hurdles, and captures a disproportionate share of global robotaxi and “physical AI” markets — outcomes that skeptics view as far from guaranteed.

Bulls vs. bears: the core narratives right now

The bullish case in late 2025

Supporters of Tesla at current levels tend to emphasize:

Technology and AI leadership: Tesla’s massive FSD dataset, custom AI training infrastructure and partnerships (like its semiconductor collaboration with Samsung) are seen as durable advantages. ^[32]
Energy storage and grid solutions: Rapidly growing Megapack and Powerwall deployments, plus new products like Megablock, provide diversified revenue streams and higher potential margins than commoditized EVs. ^[33]
Robotaxis and Optimus: Early deployments in Austin and the Bay Area, along with production lines for Optimus robots, are viewed as proof that Tesla is moving beyond the concept stage. ^[34]
Global scale and brand: Despite recent stumbles, Tesla still commands around 40% of the U.S. EV market and leads in several European and Asian countries, particularly with the Model Y. ^[35]
CEO confidence: Elon Musk’s $1 billion personal share purchase in September was widely read as a strong vote of confidence in Tesla’s long‑term prospects. ^[36]

The bearish case

Skeptics, including Burry and several outspoken short‑focused analysts, focus on:

Valuation: A forward P/E multiple far above both auto peers and many leading tech names, even after the 2025 drawdown. ^[37]
Slowing EV demand and competition: Falling sales in parts of Europe, intensifying competition in China, and an aging vehicle lineup that may need heavy discounting to sustain volumes. ^[38]
Execution and safety risk in autonomy: Ongoing investigations and lawsuits around Autopilot/FSD, combined with the technical and regulatory challenges of launching robotaxis at scale. ^[39]
Dependence on unproven businesses: A large portion of Tesla’s market value now reflects future cash flows from robotaxis, robots and software that have yet to prove themselves commercially. ^[40]
Governance and political noise: Musk’s political activism, massive pay package and multiple business commitments (SpaceX, xAI, X) raise concerns about distraction and shareholder dilution. ^[41]

Key catalysts to watch next

Looking ahead from December 1, 2025, several milestones are likely to be critical for Tesla’s stock:

Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026):
- Can Tesla stabilize automotive margins while maintaining volume?
- Does energy and services growth continue at recent rates? ^[42]
Robotaxi expansion and regulatory approvals:
- Progress on expanding paid robotaxi services beyond Austin and the Bay Area
- Any breakthroughs or setbacks in obtaining approvals in major markets such as California and European cities ^[43]
Product roadmap and 2026 launches:
- Execution on volume production of Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3, all currently slated to ramp in 2026
- Clarity on pricing and unit economics for these new businesses ^[44]
Global demand trends:
- Whether November’s sharp drops in European registrations prove to be a one‑off or the start of a longer trend
- Chinese EV market growth and Tesla’s ability to defend its share against BYD and other local champions ^[45]
Macro environment and AI sentiment:
- Big‑tech and AI stocks are under closer scrutiny as investors reassess valuations; Tesla, as both an EV and AI story, is especially sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. ^[46]

Bottom line: Where Tesla stands on December 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Tesla sits at a crossroads:

The stock has rebounded from its early‑year collapse but still trades well below its late‑2024 highs. ^[47]
Fundamentals are mixed: revenue is growing again, especially in energy, but margins and EPS are under pressure. ^[48]
Near‑term Wall Street targets cluster below the current share price, signaling a view that Tesla is at best fairly valued on a 12‑month horizon. ^[49]
Long‑term forecasts range from modest gains to multi‑bagger potential, depending on how much weight you put on robotaxis, Optimus and AI services. ^[50]
Fresh data from Europe and China plus Michael Burry’s renewed short‑side critique are keeping the valuation debate as heated as ever. ^[51]

For investors and traders following Tesla stock on Google News and Discover, the key question now is less about whether Tesla is an important company — it clearly is — and more about how much of that future is already priced into a $430 share price.

This article is for information and analysis only and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and need for independent professional advice before making investment decisions.

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