As of December 1, 2025, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is trading around $1,075 per share, giving the drugmaker a market capitalization of roughly $1.0–1.02 trillion and cementing its status as the first pharmaceutical company to enter the trillion‑dollar club. [1]
But today’s story is not just about the share price. Fresh Zepbound price cuts, new World Health Organization (WHO) guidance on GLP‑1 obesity drugs, and ongoing debate over valuation vs. growth are shaping how investors look at Eli Lilly stock heading into 2026.
Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at LLY stock on December 1, 2025, including the latest headlines, Wall Street forecasts, and the key risks long‑term investors are weighing.
1. Where Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Stands Today
- Latest price (intraday, Dec 1): about $1,075.47, down roughly $29 (≈2.6%) from the previous close.
- Market cap: ~$1.02 trillion, making Lilly the world’s most valuable healthcare company. [2]
- 52‑week range: roughly $624 to $1,112 per share. [3]
- Dividend: $1.50 per quarter, or $6.00 annually, for a yield near 0.6% at current prices. [4]
LLY’s move up the market‑cap rankings has been powered by a surge in demand for GLP‑1‑based diabetes and obesity medicines, especially Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity), which together generated more than $10 billion in revenue in the third quarter alone. [5]
At the same time, the stock is expensive by traditional metrics, trading at over 70x trailing earnings and more than 50x forward earnings, far above the typical large‑cap pharma multiple around 15–20x. [6]
2. Today’s Biggest Headline: Zepbound Price Cuts to Widen Access
The most important December 1, 2025 news for Eli Lilly shareholders is a fresh round of price cuts on Zepbound, the company’s blockbuster obesity drug.
According to a new Reuters report, Lilly has reduced prices on single‑dose Zepbound vials sold through its LillyDirect platform: [7]
- The starting 2.5 mg dose now costs $299 per month, down from $349.
- The 5 mg dose has been cut to $399, down from $499.
- Higher doses are now $449 per month, versus $499 previously.
These reductions follow similar cuts announced in November for multi‑dose Zepbound pens and come alongside a broader drug pricing agreement with the U.S. government that lowers GLP‑1 prices for Medicare, Medicaid and cash‑pay patients. [8]
What the Zepbound price cuts mean for LLY
- Near‑term margin pressure
- Lower list and net prices will squeeze per‑prescription profit, at least initially. Lilly’s CEO has previously said the company expects a net Zepbound price of about $245 under the new government framework, a discount versus diabetes drug Mounjaro despite sharing the same active ingredient. [9]
- Volume‑driven growth strategy
- Management is clearly betting that higher patient volumes—driven by more affordable pricing and government coverage—will more than offset lower prices over time. Past quarters already show this pattern: Q3 2025 revenue jumped ~54% year‑on‑year to $17.6 billion, driven primarily by volume growth even as realized prices fell. [10]
- Policy and headline risk
- Drug‑pricing deals with the Trump administration (and similar agreements in other markets) also increase Lilly’s exposure to political risk. Any change in reimbursement, tariffs or program rules could move the stock sharply, in both directions. [11]
For investors, the Zepbound cuts underline the core trade‑off in LLY stock right now: lower margins but a much bigger addressable market in obesity and diabetes.
3. WHO’s New GLP‑1 Obesity Guidelines: Structural Tailwind with Limits
Also on December 1, the World Health Organization issued its first formal guideline on using GLP‑1 therapies to treat obesity. [12] The guideline:
- Conditionally recommends GLP‑1 drugs such as semaglutide (Novo Nordisk) and tirzepatide (Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro/Zepbound) for long‑term treatment of adults with obesity (BMI ≥30), excluding pregnant women. [13]
- Emphasizes that medication should be combined with diet and physical activity, not used in isolation. [14]
- Warns that access will remain limited: even with rapidly expanding production, WHO expects fewer than 10% of eligible patients to receive GLP‑1 therapies by 2030 due to cost and infrastructure constraints. [15]
For Lilly, WHO’s stance is a long‑term demand catalyst—legitimizing GLP‑1 drugs as part of standard obesity care—while also underscoring a key risk: global affordability and access remain major bottlenecks, which keeps political and pricing pressure high.
4. Fundamentals Check: Q3 2025 Blowout and Upgraded 2025 Guidance
Q3 2025 results
Lilly’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, released October 30, set the stage for the stock’s November surge: [16]
- Revenue: $17.6 billion, up ~54% year‑over‑year and well ahead of consensus around $16.0 billion.
- Key drivers:
- Zepbound sales surged about 184% year‑on‑year.
- Mounjaro revenue increased about 109% year‑on‑year. [17]
- Adjusted EPS:$7.02, versus Wall Street expectations around $5.7–$6.4, depending on the source. [18]
2025 guidance and Street forecasts
On the back of that quarter, Lilly raised full‑year 2025 guidance: [19]
- Revenue guidance: $63.0–$63.5 billion (up from $60–$62 billion).
- Adjusted EPS guidance:$23.00–$23.70 per share (up from $21.75–$23.00).
Analyst estimates:
- MarketBeat notes the company has set a 2025 EPS range of 23.0–23.7, and the consensus sell‑side forecast is around $23.5 per share. [20]
- Barchart’s analysis cites an even higher consensus EPS estimate of about $24.0, reflecting extremely rapid earnings growth (upward of 80% year‑on‑year). [21]
From a fundamentals perspective, Lilly is delivering the kind of top‑line and earnings growth more commonly associated with high‑flying tech names than with a 100‑year‑old pharmaceutical company—one reason its valuation multiple has expanded so dramatically. TS2 Tech+1
5. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets for LLY Stock
Wall Street sentiment on Eli Lilly remains broadly positive, but expectations are now very high, and many price targets sit near or even below the current share price.
Consensus across major platforms
- MarketBeat (25 analysts):
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- Breakdown: 3 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 7 Hold.
- Average 12‑month price target:$1,047.50 (range $800–$1,300), implying slight downside of about 2–3% versus recent prices near $1,075. [22]
- TipRanks (20 analysts):
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” based on 18 Buy and 2 Hold ratings in the last three months.
- Average target: about $1,035, implying mid‑single‑digit downside after November’s rally. [23]
- Barchart (27 analysts):
- Consensus: “Strong Buy”, with 19 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys and 6 Holds.
- Cites an average target in the mid‑$900s, with a street‑high target around $1,190, suggesting sizeable upside only if the most bullish scenarios play out. [24]
- Simply Wall St valuation models (Dec 1 article):
- One widely followed narrative pegs Lilly’s fair value around $1,189, about 9–10% above the latest close, based on aggressive GLP‑1 growth assumptions.
- At the same time, they note a forward P/E of ~52x versus an industry average near 20x, flagging the stock as richly valued on simple multiples. [25]
In late November, some individual brokers reportedly pushed their price targets higher—for example, Bernstein lifting its target to $1,300—but even these “jaw‑dropping” targets only offer modest upside relative to where LLY traded at the end of the month. [26]
The big picture: analysts overwhelmingly like the business, yet many see the stock as fully valued or close to it at today’s levels.
6. Performance Recap: November Surge and the Trillion‑Dollar Milestone
According to TipRanks, Eli Lilly stock rose about 30.8% in November alone, making it one of the top performers in the S&P 500 for the month and pushing the company’s valuation above the $1 trillion mark. [27]
Reuters notes that surging demand for tirzepatide drugs has made Zepbound/Mounjaro the world’s best‑selling medicine, helping Lilly become the first drugmaker ever to reach a $1 trillion market value. [28]
A number of institutional investors have been adding to positions. For example, a December 1 filing analysis by MarketBeat highlights that OMERS Administration Corp increased its LLY holdings by about 80%, now holding nearly 288,000 shares worth roughly $224 million, while institutional ownership overall sits above 80% of shares. [29]
This combination—explosive share‑price momentum, record market cap and heavy institutional ownership—is part of why some commentators describe LLY as both a “quality compounder” and a “priced for perfection” story at the same time. [30]
7. Pipeline and Strategic Moves Beyond Obesity and Diabetes
Although GLP‑1 medicines dominate today’s headlines, Lilly has been widening its pipeline through approvals, acquisitions and partnerships.
Alzheimer’s and neurology
- Lilly won full FDA approval for its Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla (donanemab) in 2024, positioning it as a key player in neurodegeneration alongside Biogen/Eisai’s therapies. [31]
Next‑generation obesity and diabetes treatments
- Orforglipron (oral GLP‑1 pill):
- Once‑daily oral GLP‑1 candidate for obesity and type 2 diabetes.
- Lilly plans regulatory submissions beginning in 2025 and expects U.S. FDA approval by around March 2026, according to comments from its CEO reported by Reuters and follow‑up coverage. [32]
- Phase 3 data show ~11–13% average weight loss over 72 weeks in obesity trials, with convenient oral dosing that doesn’t require fasting or special timing. [33]
- Retatrutide (triple agonist):
- A GIP/GLP‑1/glucagon triple agonist that has produced 20%+ weight loss in earlier‑stage trials, potentially surpassing today’s GLP‑1 injections in potency. [34]
- Partnerships like a $1.3 billion deal with Superluminal Medicines aim to use AI to design next‑generation obesity drugs, including candidates targeting melanocortin pathways and other mechanisms that could complement or compete with GLP‑1s. [35]
Immunology and oncology
- Morphic Therapeutic acquisition:
- Lilly acquired Morphic in a deal worth around $3.2 billion, adding oral integrin inhibitors for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including a mid‑stage challenger to Takeda’s Entyvio. [36]
- Ongoing work in oncology and immunology includes drugs like Verzenio (breast cancer) and Taltz (immunology), which, while overshadowed by obesity headlines, still contribute meaningful and growing revenue. [37]
One‑time gene‑editing therapies for heart disease
- Verve Therapeutics acquisition:
- Lilly is acquiring or has completed the acquisition of Verve Therapeutics for up to $1.3 billion, gaining access to in vivo base‑editing programs aimed at permanently switching off the PCSK9 gene to reduce LDL cholesterol and cardiovascular risk with a single treatment. [38]
These moves are important for LLY shareholders because they diversify the company’s future revenue stream beyond tirzepatide, even if GLP‑1 drugs remain the primary earnings engine through the late 2020s.
8. The Valuation Debate: Is LLY Overpriced or Still a Buy?
The bullish case
Pro‑LLY analysts and commentators point to several key arguments: TS2 Tech+2Simply Wall St+2
- Durable GLP‑1 leadership
- Mounjaro and Zepbound are already the top‑selling drugs globally, and analysts expect tirzepatide sales to climb into the tens of billions of dollars annually by 2026, potentially outpacing Novo Nordisk’s flagship products. [39]
- Massive addressable market
- Obesity affects more than 1 billion people globally; diabetes and cardiometabolic disease affect hundreds of millions more. WHO’s new guideline reinforces the idea that these are chronic, treatable conditions, not merely lifestyle issues. [40]
- Pipeline depth and optionality
- The combination of oral GLP‑1 pills, triple‑agonists, gene‑editing therapies and immunology/oncology assets suggests Lilly could sustain high growth beyond the first GLP‑1 wave. [41]
- Execution track record
- Management has repeatedly beat earnings expectations, raised guidance and scaled manufacturing capacity faster than many rivals, strengthening confidence in long‑term plans. [42]
The cautious or bearish case
More cautious analysts focus on valuation and concentration risk: [43]
- Sky‑high multiples
- With a trailing P/E around 70x and forward P/E above 50x, LLY trades at a premium more typical of high‑growth software companies than big pharma. If GLP‑1 growth slows or margins compress faster than expected, the stock could be vulnerable to a sharp de‑rating.
- Product concentration
- A large and growing share of revenue comes from just a handful of products, especially tirzepatide‑based drugs. Any safety signal, supply issue, or competitive shock could have outsized impact.
- Policy and pricing risk
- Government payers are now central to the GLP‑1 story. The recent U.S. pricing agreements—and WHO’s call‑outs on cost barriers—highlight that political scrutiny is only increasing, especially if obesity drug spending swells public‑health budgets. [44]
- Crowded trade
- With heavy institutional ownership and intense retail interest, LLY has become a crowded market favorite. In such situations, sentiment shifts can produce sudden drawdowns, even if fundamentals remain solid. [45]
In short: Lilly’s business looks excellent; the debate is mainly about the price.
9. Key Risks and What to Watch in 2026
For investors following Eli Lilly stock after December 1, 2025, several catalysts and risks stand out:
- FDA decisions and clinical data
- Progress on orforglipron (oral GLP‑1) and retatrutide will influence long‑term growth expectations for the obesity franchise. FDA approval timing (targeted around March 2026 for orforglipron) is particularly important. [46]
- Further pricing and coverage changes
- Additional drug‑pricing reforms, changes to Medicare/Medicaid policies, or new deals with commercial insurers could significantly affect both volumes and margins. [47]
- Competition from Novo Nordisk and other players
- Novo Nordisk is pushing hard with its own GLP‑1 pills and combination therapies, and other pharma and biotech companies are racing to innovate beyond the current GLP‑1 wave. Competitive data readouts could impact perceptions of Lilly’s durable advantage. [48]
- Execution on M&A and pipeline diversification
- Success in integrating Verve Therapeutics, advancing gene‑editing programs and delivering on the Morphic IBD portfolio will help determine whether Lilly can maintain premium growth outside of obesity. [49]
- Macro and market factors
- As a trillion‑dollar mega‑cap with a growth‑stock multiple, LLY is increasingly sensitive to rate expectations, risk appetite and sector rotations in broader equity markets.
10. Takeaways for Investors
On December 1, 2025, Eli Lilly stock sits at a fascinating crossroads:
- It is a global leader in obesity and diabetes therapeutics, with blowout earnings, strong guidance and a rich pipeline that includes oral GLP‑1s, triple‑agonists, Alzheimer’s drugs and one‑time gene‑editing treatments. [50]
- Fresh Zepbound price cuts and U.S. drug‑pricing deals aim to expand access and cement market share—but also highlight the policy and margin trade‑offs at the heart of the GLP‑1 story. [51]
- Wall Street ratings are overwhelmingly positive, yet many 12‑month price targets now sit close to or below the current price, reflecting the view that much of the near‑term upside may already be priced in. [52]
For prospective or current shareholders, the key question going into 2026 is not whether Lilly is a high‑quality business—it clearly is—but whether its share price appropriately balances growth potential, policy risk and competition.
As always, this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Anyone considering an investment in Eli Lilly should evaluate their own objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon, and where appropriate, speak with a qualified financial adviser.
References
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