US Stock Market Today (Dec. 1, 2025): Wall Street Slips as Bitcoin Tumbles and Fed Jitters Build

The first trading day of December is off to a cautious start on Wall Street. Major US stock indices are trading lower on Monday as investors digest weaker‑than‑expected manufacturing data, a sharp selloff in Bitcoin and rising bond yields, while bracing for a closely watched speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a pivotal rate decision next week.

As of late morning in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was hovering near 47,500, down roughly 0.3%–0.5%. The S&P 500 was trading just below 6,840 and the Nasdaq Composite near 23,300, both off around a quarter to half a percent after last week’s powerful rebound. ^[1]

That pullback follows a strong holiday-shortened week in which the S&P 500 gained about 3.7% and the Nasdaq 100 jumped nearly 4.9%, helped by growing confidence that the Fed will deliver another quarter‑point rate cut at its December meeting. ^[2]

How the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Are Trading Today

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Around 47,500, down roughly 0.3%–0.5% on the day. ^[3]
S&P 500: Trading in the low 6,800s, off about 0.3% intraday after closing Friday at 6,849.09. ^[4]
Nasdaq Composite: Near 23,300, slipping about 0.3%–0.5%. ^[5]

Earlier in the session, futures trading set the tone: S&P 500 futures fell over 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures nearly 0.8%, and Dow futures about 0.5%, as traders took profits after November’s choppy rally and responded to a fresh wave of risk‑off sentiment. ^[6]

Volatility, while still relatively subdued, is ticking higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was back in the high‑teens on Monday after finishing last week around 16, a reminder that investors are growing more nervous heading into a dense run of macro data and central bank decisions. ^[7]

Fed Rate Cut Hopes vs. Powell’s Message

The Federal Reserve remains the central driver of market psychology as the year’s final policy meeting on December 9–10 approaches.

Futures markets now assign roughly an 85%–90% probability of a 25-basis‑point rate cut at the December meeting, up sharply from about 70% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch and analyst commentary. ^[8]
Monday’s weakness comes as investors step aside ahead of a Jerome Powell speech later in the day that could either cement or challenge those expectations. ^[9]

But the path to easier policy is far from straightforward. A new Fed analysis from Reuters highlights a deep split inside the central bank, with as many as five of the 12 voting members skeptical about further cuts, even as a core group of governors argues that more easing is needed to support a slowing labor market. ^[10]

Persistent dissent could mean:

More volatile market reactions to Fed announcements if votes become narrowly divided.
Increased concern about the Fed’s independence and communication, especially with political pressure mounting ahead of the 2026 cycle and with the White House expected to nominate the next Fed chair soon. ^[11]

For equity investors, that internal tension adds an extra layer of uncertainty to what might otherwise be a straightforward “rate cuts are good for stocks” narrative.

Macro Data: US Manufacturing PMI Slips Deeper Into Contraction

Monday’s key data point was the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, which disappointed:

Headline PMI fell to 48.2 (vs. 48.7 in October and 48.6 expected).
The New Orders Index dropped to 47.4 from 49.4.
The Employment Index slid to 44 from 46, indicating deeper job losses in factories.
The Prices Paid Index rose to 58.5 from 58, signaling firmer input-cost inflation. ^[12]

A reading below 50 marks contraction, and November is now the ninth straight month of sub‑50 readings, underscoring sustained weakness in the industrial side of the economy. ^[13]

Globally, purchasing managers’ surveys painted a similar picture:

Factory activity contracted in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the euro area in November, pointing to slower global demand and ongoing tariff and trade uncertainty. ^[14]

That combination—softer growth but sticky input prices—complicates the Fed’s job and helps explain why officials are divided over how aggressive they should be with rate cuts.

Bonds, the Dollar, and the “Higher for Longer” Hangover

Bond markets reinforced the cautious mood:

The 10‑year US Treasury yield moved roughly six basis points higher on Monday, as investors demanded a bit more compensation to hold long‑dated government debt. ^[15]
At the same time, the US dollar index extended a recent losing streak, trading near 99—its lowest in about two weeks—after the soft ISM print encouraged more bets on Fed easing. ^[16]

Rising yields typically pressure equity valuations, especially for long‑duration assets such as high‑growth tech stocks, while a weaker dollar tends to support commodities like gold and oil—both of which have been firming as December begins. ^[17]

Crypto-Led Risk-Off: Bitcoin Drops Below $90,000

Crypto markets are once again acting as a high‑beta barometer of risk appetite—and the signal isn’t comforting for equity bulls.

Bitcoin fell as much as 6% on Monday, sliding below $90,000 and briefly trading around $86,500, in what looks set to be its biggest one‑day loss in about a month. ^[18]
The drop extends a brutal November in which Bitcoin lost more than $18,000 in value, marking its largest dollar decline since the 2021 crypto crash. ^[19]
Analysts note that Bitcoin is currently showing a tight correlation with equities, making its slide an ominous sign for broader risk assets at the start of the month. ^[20]

Crypto‑linked equities have been hit hard:

Shares of major Bitcoin holders and miners, including MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings, were down between roughly 3% and 7% in Monday trading. ^[21]

FXEmpire’s intraday futures update echoed the same theme: Bitcoin’s break below $87,000 is “feeding into the risk‑off feel” and prompting traders to trim exposure in other high‑beta corners of the market. ^[22]

Sector Moves and Notable Stocks Today

Even on a down day, the action under the surface is uneven.

Tech and AI: Cooling After a Big Run

Tech and AI‑linked names, which led last week’s rebound, are taking a breather:

Futures and early cash trading showed Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom each down more than 1% as investors become more selective after a strong November bounce and lingering concerns about stretched valuations. ^[23]
Synopsys is a notable outlier on the upside, jumping roughly 5%–8% after Nvidia disclosed a $2 billion investment tied to a deeper AI‑focused partnership. ^[24]

Last week, the launch of Google’s Gemini 3 AI model lifted Alphabet and key chip partner Broadcom, while the broader US Tech 100 index climbed back above its 50‑day moving average—signs that the AI trade is still alive but increasingly choppy. ^[25]

Energy, Retail, and Other Standouts

Friday’s session saw energy, consumer staples and communication services lead the S&P 500 higher, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) up about 1.3%, while health care lagged. ^[26]

On Monday:

Energy names and oil producers continue to find support as crude prices edge higher on geopolitical risks and OPEC‑related supply developments. ^[27]
Big‑box retailers like Walmart and Target are modestly higher as early Cyber Monday data point to strong online spending after a record Black Friday. ^[28]
Tesla is slightly lower after new data showed a drop in registrations across several key European markets in November. ^[29]
Leggett & Platt is surging on a buyout proposal, while Wynn Resorts is getting a lift from a fresh “conviction buy” call at Goldman Sachs. ^[30]
Moderna is under pressure after an FDA memo flagged safety concerns around its Covid vaccine in a small group of cases, prompting quick selling in the stock. ^[31]

Overall, decliners outnumber advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, according to Reuters, consistent with a broad if not panicked risk‑off tilt. ^[32]

What the Pros Are Saying About December

Despite Monday’s wobble, many strategists still see room for a “Santa rally”—but with bigger caveats than usual.

Tom Lee’s Bullish Call

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remains among the more optimistic voices on Wall Street. In a note highlighted by Seeking Alpha, he argued that: ^[33]

The S&P 500 could climb to 7,200–7,300 by year‑end, implying another 5%–10% upside from current levels.
The expected end of Fed quantitative tightening (QT) is a major tailwind, as past QT conclusions have often coincided with robust equity rallies.
He remains upbeat on Bitcoin and Ethereum longer term, arguing that recent weakness is cyclical rather than the start of a new structural downtrend.

Rate Cuts, but With More Noise

Other analysts are more cautious. A Reuters deep‑dive into the Fed’s internal politics warns that a flurry of dissenting votes at upcoming meetings could muddy the policy outlook and make it harder for markets to price the path of interest rates with confidence. ^[34]

At the same time, global macro strategists point to:

Persistent manufacturing softness across major economies. ^[35]
Rising odds of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, which could reshape global capital flows and push bond yields higher. ^[36]
Ongoing uncertainty over who will lead the Fed after Powell’s term ends, with White House adviser Kevin Hassett widely seen as a frontrunner for the job. ^[37]

All of that suggests December could still deliver a rally—but one punctuated by sudden air‑pockets of volatilitywhenever incoming data or Fed messaging challenges the market’s rate‑cut narrative.

Key Data and Events to Watch This Week

Traders looking beyond today’s moves are laser‑focused on a dense economic and policy calendar:

Today (Mon, Dec. 1)
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) – already released and weaker than expected. ^[38]
- Powell’s speech on the economic outlook and policy. ^[39]
Wednesday, Dec. 3
- ADP private payrolls (Nov)
- US ISM Services PMI (Nov) – critical for gauging the strength of the much larger services side of the economy. ^[40]
Thursday, Dec. 4
- Initial jobless claims
- US and Canada trade balance data. ^[41]
Friday, Dec. 5
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Dec, prelim)
- US factory orders (Oct). ^[42]

Because a recent US government shutdown delayed several official releases, investors are still working with patchy dataon inflation and the labor market. That raises the odds that each new report this week could move markets more than usual, right into the Fed’s blackout period and the December rate decision. ^[43]

Bottom Line: A Shaky but Not Broken Start to December

To sum up:

Stocks are modestly lower after a strong Thanksgiving week, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all starting December in the red. ^[44]
Weaker manufacturing data, a Bitcoin slide below $90,000, and higher bond yields are weighing on risk appetite. ^[45]
At the same time, rate‑cut hopes for the December Fed meeting remain firmly priced in, and some high‑profile strategists still see upside for stocks into year‑end. ^[46]

Whether December ultimately delivers a Santa rally or a lump of coal will likely hinge on three things: the tone of Powell’s remarks, the next batch of inflation and labor data, and whether Bitcoin’s selloff stabilizes or spills further into equities.

For now, it’s a market that’s taking a breather, not collapsing—but one that’s clearly nervous about what the next two weeks will bring.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.