Stock Market Today: Dow Drops 296 Points as Bitcoin Slumps and Fed Jitters Hit Wall Street

US stock market recap for Monday, December 1, 2025 — after the closing bell (10:00 PM ET)

Key takeaways

Major indices slipped:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 296 points (-0.62%) to 47,420.77
- S&P 500 lost 0.34% to 6,825.87
- Nasdaq Composite declined 0.29% to 23,297.00 ^[1]
Macro data disappointed: ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, the ninth straight month of contraction, underscoring tariff‑driven pressure on U.S. factories. ^[2]
Crypto rout spilled into equities: Bitcoin fell about 7% and briefly broke below $85,000, dragging crypto‑linked stocks sharply lower. ^[3]
Fed cut still priced in: Futures markets see an ~85–90% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, but a growing bloc of Fed dissenters is worrying investors. ^[4]
After hours in focus: Earnings from MongoDB (MDB), Credo Technology (CRDO), Vestis (VSTS) and Simulations Plus (SLP) are due this evening and could sway index futures into Tuesday. ^[5]

How Wall Street closed on December 1, 2025

U.S. stocks started December on the back foot, giving up a slice of last week’s powerful rally.

According to closing data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 295.65 points (-0.62%) to 47,420.77, the S&P 500slipped 23.22 points (-0.34%) to 6,825.87, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 68.69 points (-0.29%) to 23,297.00. ^[6]

Breadth was negative: decliners outnumbered advancers by roughly 1.5 to 1 on the NYSE and nearly 2 to 1 on the Nasdaq, even as the S&P 500 still managed 17 new 52‑week highs versus just 1 new low. ^[7]

Sector‑wise:

Real estate and utilities—classic “bond proxies”—were among the laggards as Treasury yields climbed. ^[8]
Crypto‑exposed names (Coinbase, Bitfarms, MicroStrategy) were hit hard by the Bitcoin selloff. ^[9]
Retailers like Walmart and Target gained as Cyber Monday spending was forecast to hit a record $14.2 billion in online sales. ^[10]
Synopsys rallied nearly 5% after Nvidia disclosed a $2 billion stake, highlighting ongoing AI‑driven dealmaking even as broader tech cooled. ^[11]

Despite today’s pullback, U.S. stocks enter December from a position of strength: the S&P 500 gained about 3.7% and the Nasdaq 100 nearly 4.9% last week, helped by growing confidence in an upcoming Fed rate cut and classic “Santa rally” seasonality. ^[12]

Macro check: U.S. manufacturing slumps again

The main data driver on Monday was the November ISM Manufacturing PMI — and it wasn’t pretty.

Headline PMI: 48.2 (vs. 48.7 in October and 48.6 expected)
New Orders Index: 47.4 (down from 49.4)
Employment Index: 44.0 (down from 46.0)
Prices Paid Index: 58.5 (up from 58.0) ^[13]

Sub‑50 readings signal contraction, and November marked the ninth consecutive month of downturn in U.S. manufacturing. Multiple analyses tied that weakness squarely to ongoing tariffs, especially on autos and industrial inputs, which are raising costs, damping orders and prompting some firms to cut jobs or move production offshore. ^[14]

Globally, PMI readings from China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the euro area also showed factory activity under pressure, reinforcing the picture of a synchronised industrial slowdown rather than a purely domestic issue. TS2 Tech+1

Complicating matters, the recent 43‑day U.S. government shutdown has left an uneven data landscape. Retail sales, inflation and jobs figures have been released on a delayed basis, and some reports (like an October payrolls print) will not appear at all. Investors and economists are relying more than usual on surveys, weekly claims, and private data to gauge momentum. ^[15]

Fed watch: Cut almost “baked in,” but dissents loom

If today’s ISM report underscored growth worries, Federal Reserve policy remained the dominant narrative.

Futures markets now price roughly an 85–90% probability that the Fed will deliver a 25‑basis‑point rate cut at its December 9–10 FOMC meeting, taking the policy range below the current 3.75–4.00% after October’s quarter‑point move. ^[16]
A popular State Street and 1919 Investment Counsel set of weekly outlooks notes that a December cut is “fully priced” after softer consumer data and cooling producer prices, even as the labor market softens only gradually. ^[17]

But the path to easier policy is not simple. A Reuters deep‑dive today warned of a “flurry of Fed dissents” that could emerge in coming meetings:

As many as five of twelve FOMC voters have publicly questioned the need for further cuts.
A core group of Board governors in Washington favors more easing to support a slowing labor market.
With Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in May and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassettwidely seen as a top contender to succeed him, analysts worry that political pressure could sharpen these divisions. ^[18]

Markets still see a December cut as the “compromise” outcome, but continued internal dissent could:

Make Fed communications harder to interpret,
Increase bond and equity volatility around each meeting, and
Raise questions about the Fed’s independence heading into the 2026 political cycle. ^[19]

For now, traders are also watching a delayed September PCE inflation report—the Fed’s preferred gauge—due Friday, which could validate or challenge current rate‑cut expectations. ^[20]

Crypto rout and an AI “pause” weigh on risk appetite

A big story on Monday wasn’t just stocks—it was crypto.

Bitcoin tumbled about 7%, briefly dropping below $85,000, in one of its sharper single‑day pullbacks in recent months. ^[21]
The total crypto market has now lost more than $1 trillion in value since its recent peak near $4.3 trillion, according to CoinGecko data cited by Reuters. ^[22]

That move slammed crypto‑exposed equities:

Coinbase fell about 5.1%
U.S.‑listed Bitfarms dropped 6.9%
MicroStrategy—described by Reuters as the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin—slid around 7% intraday after a more than 12% session drawdown, and cut its 2025 earnings forecast as the Bitcoin slide bit into projections. ^[23]

At the same time, a separate Reuters video feature noted that the “AI trade may be pausing,” as investors question stretched valuations in some high‑flying tech names and rotate within the sector. ^[24]

That combination—crypto volatility and a cooling AI momentum trade—helped pull risk appetite lower just as December began, even though many strategists still see AI and digital infrastructure as multi‑year growth themes.

Sector moves: Yields pressure bond proxies, retailers shine

Rising global bond yields were another headwind for equities.

U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that conditions may be lining up for a future Japanese rate hike, helping push Japanese and European yields up and spilling over into Treasuries. ^[25]
Higher yields weighed particularly on real estate and utilities, which investors often treat as bond substitutes because of their income characteristics. ^[26]

On the positive side:

Big‑box retailers benefited from record‑setting Cyber Monday expectations, with Adobe Analytics projecting $14.2 billion in U.S. online spending. Walmart rose about 1%, and Target added around 0.5%. ^[27]
Synopsys jumped 4.9% after Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment, seen as a strategic bet on the software at the heart of chip design for AI data centers. ^[28]

The net result was a market that tilted defensive but not panicked: cyclicals and energy were mixed, bond proxies struggled, and a handful of individual stories (AI tools, retail, select industrials) continued to buck the broader weakness.

After-hours spotlight: AI infrastructure and software earnings

While the cash session belonged to macro and crypto, the after‑hours session is all about earnings, especially in AI‑linked infrastructure and enterprise software:

Companies scheduled after the bell include: ^[29]

MongoDB (MDB) – Q3 FY2026
Credo Technology Group (CRDO) – Q2 FY2026
Vestis (VSTS) – Q4 FY2025
Simulations Plus (SLP)

Analyst and options expectations heading into tonight:

MongoDB (MDB)
- Consensus EPS around $0.79–0.81 and revenue near $593 million. ^[30]
- Options markets were pricing an ~11–13% post‑earnings move, notably larger than typical S&P 500 earnings reactions. ^[31]
Credo Technology (CRDO)
- Consensus EPS near $0.49–0.50 on revenue of roughly $235 million, as hyperscale AI data‑center demand drives high‑speed connectivity products. ^[32]
Vestis (VSTS)
- Expected EPS around $0.39 and revenue close to $788 million, as investors watch for progress in margin improvement at the uniform and workplace‑supplies provider. ^[33]

As of late evening on the U.S. East Coast, full earnings details and sustained after‑hours price reactions were still being digested. The results, plus guidance on AI workloads, cloud spending and corporate IT budgets, are likely to influence index futures and sentiment in high‑growth names into Tuesday’s session.

What the pros are saying about December

Even with today’s stumble, many strategists still see room for a year‑end rally, but with more caveats than usual.

Macro strategists: cautious but not bearish

1919 Investment Counsel points out that after a holiday‑shortened, low‑volume week, U.S. equities still managed “meaningful” gains, leaving the S&P 500 with its seventh consecutive positive month. They highlight a labor market that is cooling gradually, softer retail sales, and easing producer prices—conditions that justify further Fed easing without screaming “recession.” ^[34]
State Street’s economics team notes that September retail sales and consumer confidence came in weaker than expected, and that investors have now fully priced a December cut in response. They frame the current environment as one of “more of the same” inflation but growing consumer caution. ^[35]

Both houses stress an unusually wide “visibility gap” due to data delays: with some official releases missing or out of sync, each new data point (like this week’s PCE and ISM services prints) could have an outsized market impact. ^[36]

Trading desks and technical analysts: mind the PCE and key levels

OANDA’s MarketPulse notes that the probability of a December cut has surged from around 20% to almost 90%in just a few sessions, leaving “limited upside” if data come in benign—but significant downside if PCE inflation surprises to the upside and markets have to re‑price. ^[37]
The same analysis highlights technical “pivot zones” such as S&P 500 ~6,800, Nasdaq 100 near 25,000, and Dow support around 47,000, arguing that as long as these areas hold, the broader uptrend remains intact, even if volatility bumps higher. ^[38]

Tom Lee and other strategists: bullish, but with turbulence

In a recent note summarized by TechStock², Fundstrat’s Tom Lee reiterated a year‑end S&P 500 target in the 7,200–7,300 range, implying ~5–10% upside from today’s levels. He views the end of Fed quantitative tightening (QT) as a major tailwind and remains constructive on Bitcoin and Ethereum over the longer term, seeing the current crypto pullback as cyclical. TS2 Tech
More cautious voices, including Reuters’ Fed commentators and several global macro desks, warn that multiple Fed dissents, tariff‑driven manufacturing weakness, and elevated AI valuations are likely to produce “air pockets” of volatility — sharp, sudden downdrafts even within a generally positive trend. ^[39]

What to watch for the rest of the week

With the first trading day of December in the books, attention now shifts to a dense macro and policy calendar:

Tuesday–Wednesday
- ADP private payrolls (Nov)
- ISM Services PMI (Nov) — especially its employment and prices components, which matter more than ever for a services‑heavy U.S. economy. ^[40]
Thursday
- Initial jobless claims
- Trade balance data for the U.S. and Canada TS2 Tech+1
Friday
- Delayed September PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
- Factory orders and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary) ^[41]

All of this lands just ahead of the Fed’s communications blackout and the December 9–10 policy meeting, setting the stage for potentially larger‑than‑normal market reactions to each data point.

Bottom line for investors

For traders and long‑term investors alike, Monday’s session sends a few clear signals:

The uptrend is intact, but momentum is slowing.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record territory after a strong November rebound, but the first day of December shows that gains are increasingly hard‑fought. ^[42]
Fed expectations are crowded.
A December cut is heavily priced in; that leaves markets vulnerable if PCE or jobs data challenge the “soft landing with easing inflation” narrative.
Old‑economy tariffs are biting just as new‑economy themes lead.
Manufacturing is firmly in contraction, even as investors remain focused on AI, data centers and software. That split could matter for sector allocation and earnings dispersion going into 2026. ^[43]
Crypto and high‑beta tech are the “shock absorbers.”
Bitcoin’s slide and the wobble in AI‑favored names show where volatility is likely to concentrate when macro nerves flare.

As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Any allocation or trading decisions should be based on your own research, risk tolerance, and, ideally, consultation with a qualified financial professional.