Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Today: UBS Sets $145 Target as Guyana Output Surges and Dividend Yield Nears 3.5%

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) enters December trading near its 52‑week highs, backed by fresh “Buy” ratings, record-breaking production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, and a newly increased dividend — but also facing softer oil prices and a tougher energy-transition backdrop.

As of Monday, December 1, 2025, Exxon Mobil shares are changing hands around $116–117, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $492 billion. ^[1] That sets the stage for a busy end to 2025, with Wall Street updating forecasts, institutions adjusting positions, and the oil market digesting the latest OPEC+ decision.

Exxon Mobil stock today: price, valuation and macro backdrop

• Share price & range
  Real‑time data show XOM trading around $116.6–117.1 on December 1, 2025, up about 1% on the day and within a few percent of its 52‑week high of $120.81. ^[2]
  Over the past year, the stock has delivered low single‑digit price gains, lagging both the S&P 500 and the broader oil & gas industry, where peer groups are up closer to the mid‑single digits. ^[3]
• Valuation snapshot
  Current data put Exxon’s trailing P/E around 16.5–16.7x, a price‑to‑earnings‑growth (PEG) ratio near 2.0, and an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of about 7.5x, versus an industry average around 4.8x. ^[4]
  That premium reflects expectations for durable cash flow from low‑cost assets such as Guyana and the Permian, but it also explains why some research houses classify the stock as fairly valued rather than cheap.
• Dividend yield
  After a recent increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.03 per share, the annual payout of $4.12 equates to a dividend yield of roughly 3.5% at today’s price — one of the more attractive, well‑covered yields among mega‑cap U.S. companies. ^[5]
• Oil price environment
  Exxon’s fundamentals are currently playing out against a softer commodity backdrop. Brent crude is hovering around $63 per barrel and WTI near $59, both down low‑teens percentages from a year ago. ^[6]
  Over the weekend, OPEC+ reaffirmed existing production levels through at least the first quarter of 2026, maintaining more than 3 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts but signaling no fresh tightening, a decision that has kept oil prices range‑bound in the low 60s. ^[7]

For Exxon, this mix — premium valuation, solid yield, and subdued oil prices — sets a nuanced stage for investors.

Fresh December 1 analyst calls: UBS goes to $145, consensus grinds higher

December 1, 2025 has brought a wave of updated views on XOM:

• UBS assumes coverage with a “Buy” and $145 target
  UBS initiated (or, depending on the source, reiterated) coverage on Exxon Mobil with a “Buy” rating and a $145 price target, implying roughly 24% upside from current levels. ^[8]
  The bank is effectively staking out the bullish end of the mainstream range, arguing that Exxon’s integrated model, volume growth and balance sheet warrant a higher multiple.
• HSBC nudges its target higher while staying cautious
  On the same day, HSBC raised its price target on Exxon to $126 from $121 but kept a “Hold” rating, citing a more constructive oil price deck yet acknowledging limited upside from today’s price. ^[9]
• Consensus: “Moderate/Overweight Buy” with ~10–11% upside
  Across Wall Street:
  • FactSet and MT Newswires data show Exxon with an average rating of “overweight” and a mean price target around $127.8. ^[10]
  • StockAnalysis and other aggregators, looking at 16 analysts, peg the 12‑month average target near $129.5, with a range from about $105 on the low end to $156 on the high end. ^[11]
  • MarketBeat’s tally shows 2 “Strong Buy”, 8 “Buy” and 10 “Hold” ratings, summarizing to a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target around $128.7. ^[12]
  Net‑net, the street is looking for roughly 10–11% price appreciation plus a 3.5% dividend yield over the next year, though the spread between the most bullish ($150s) and most cautious ($100–110) targets is wide.
• Zacks highlights upstream strength but calls valuation “Hold”
  A new Zacks‑authored note (syndicated via Nasdaq) titled “XOM’s Upstream Advantage: The Growth Story Investors Shouldn’t Ignore” emphasizes that Exxon generates the majority of its earnings from upstream operations, with record output in the Permian and Guyana and low breakevens that allow it to stay profitable even if oil prices weaken. ^[13]
  At the same time, Zacks flags that XOM trades at a richer EV/EBITDA multiple than peers and thus assigns a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rather than a buy rating.

This mix of bullish upside cases from UBS and others, plus more measured “Hold” stances from Zacks and HSBC, sums up the debate: is Exxon’s superior asset quality fully reflected in the price yet?

Earnings power: inside Exxon’s third‑quarter 2025 results

Exxon’s latest reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on October 31, and it sets the fundamental backdrop for all of the current stock calls. ^[14]

Key highlights:

• Headline numbers (Q3 2025)
  • Earnings: $7.5 billion, or $1.76 per diluted share.
  • Cash flow from operations: $14.8 billion.
  • Free cash flow: $6.3 billion.
  • Shareholder distributions: $9.4 billion, split between $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in buybacks. ^[15]
• Year‑to‑date performance
  By the end of the third quarter, Exxon had generated $22.3 billion in earnings and $20.6 billion in free cash flow, even as weaker crude prices and bottom‑cycle chemical margins pressured results versus 2024. ^[16]
• Costs and efficiency
  Since 2019, Exxon has accumulated over $14 billion of structural cost savings, including another $2.2 billion in 2025 alone, and remains on track to exceed $18 billion in cumulative savings by 2030. ^[17]
• Balance sheet strength
  Debt metrics remain conservative: debt‑to‑capital around 13.5% and net‑debt‑to‑capital under 10%, with about $13.9 billion of cash on hand at quarter‑end. ^[18]

For investors, the takeaway is that cash generation remains robust even in a mid‑cycle pricing environment, and management is returning more capital to shareholders than it’s currently generating in free cash, funded by the still‑strong balance sheet.

Guyana and the Permian: Exxon’s upstream growth engine

If there is a single theme running through today’s research on XOM, it’s this: volume growth from low‑cost barrels.

Record production in Q3 2025

In the Q3 release, CEO Darren Woods highlighted:

• Record quarterly production in both the Permian and Guyana.
• Net production of 4.8 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day, up 139,000 boe/d sequentially.
• Nearly 1.7 million boe/d from the Permian Basin, a new record.
• Gross production above 700,000 boe/d in Guyana, with the massive Yellowtail project started up four months ahead of schedule. ^[19]

Exxon also closed on more than 80,000 additional net acres in the Permian from Sinochem, expanding its inventory of high‑return drilling locations. ^[20]

Guyana hits 900,000 barrels per day and keeps climbing

A subsequent November 12, 2025 update from ExxonMobil Guyana announced that daily production in the offshore Stabroek block has reached 900,000 barrels per day, only months after Yellowtail ramped to its initial 250,000 bpd capacity. ^[21]

Looking ahead, Exxon and its partners have now committed more than $60 billion to develop at least seven sanctioned projects (Uaru, Whiptail, Hammerhead, and others), with:

• Uaru and Whiptail each expected to add another ~250,000 bpd in 2026–2027.
• Hammerhead projected to contribute ~150,000 bpd by 2029.
• A planned eighth project (Longtail) under regulatory review; if approved, total capacity from eight FPSOs could reach 1.7 million bpd by 2030. ^[22]

Zacks notes that Guyana and the Permian feature some of the lowest breakeven costs in the industry, providing Exxon with a buffer should oil prices stay in the low‑$60s. ^[23]

In short, volume growth from these “advantaged barrels” is the spine of the bullish long‑term XOM thesis.

Dividend, buybacks and capital spending: income story still intact

For income‑oriented investors, Exxon remains a flagship name:

• Dividend growth
  The board declared a fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend of $1.03 per share, up 4% from $0.99 and marking Exxon’s 43rd consecutive annual dividend increase. ^[24]
• Yield and payout
  At around $116–117 per share, the $4.12 annual dividend translates to roughly a 3.5% yield, with a payout ratio under 60% of expected earnings — leaving room for continued investment and buybacks. ^[25]
• Share repurchases and cash returns
  Year‑to‑date, Exxon has already returned $27.8 billion to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks) and remains on track with a $20 billion share‑repurchase plan for 2025. ^[26]
• Capex discipline
  Management now expects full‑year 2025 cash capital expenditures (excluding acquisitions) to come in slightly below the low end of its $27–29 billion guidance range, after spending $20.9 billion in the first nine months. ^[27]

This balance — high but sustainable payouts plus still‑elevated investment in growth projects — is central to the case that Exxon can both reward today’s income investors and build earnings power into the next decade.

Energy transition moves: hydrogen pause shows the challenges

Not all recent headlines have been unambiguously bullish.

On November 27, 2025, Exxon confirmed it had paused plans to build a massive blue hydrogen facility at its Baytown, Texas complex, citing weak customer demand and difficulty securing long‑term offtake contracts at prices that justify the higher cost of low‑carbon hydrogen. ^[28]

• The project, designed to produce around 1 billion cubic feet per day of hydrogen, was intended as one of the world’s largest such facilities.
• Exxon and its partners have already invested roughly $500 million, but management indicated they are unwilling to proceed without firmer demand signals and policy support. ^[29]

The pause underscores a key risk for energy majors: earning competitive returns in low‑carbon projects is still difficult, even as investors, regulators and governments push for decarbonization.

At the same time, Exxon is doubling down on more near‑term cash‑generative projects:

• A Reuters‑reported deal to acquire 40% of Enterprise Products Partners’ Bahia NGL pipeline to support Permian growth. ^[30]
• Lifting force majeure on the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, signaling that long‑delayed LNG capacity may finally move forward. ^[31]

These moves suggest that, for now, Exxon’s transition strategy is to lean heavily on low‑cost hydrocarbons and LNG while advancing low‑carbon solutions more cautiously.

Forecasts: where analysts see Exxon Mobil heading

Beyond price targets, several datasets update how the street sees Exxon’s fundamentals:

• Earnings and revenue growth
  Simply Wall St’s compilation of analyst models shows Exxon’s:
  • Earnings expected to grow about 7.3% per year through 2027.
  • Revenue growth at roughly 1% per year, reflecting flat‑to‑slightly higher oil prices and limited volume growth outside Guyana and the Permian.
  • EPS growth around 10.4% annually and return on equity rising toward ~14.4% within three years. ^[32]
• Full‑year 2025 and beyond
  That same dataset suggests:
  • 2025 revenue around $327 billion and earnings near $29.3 billion.
  • A step‑up to $30.9 billion in earnings in 2026 and $36.2 billion by 2027, assuming modestly improving margins and the full contribution of new projects. ^[33]
• Q4 2025 earnings expectations
  One recent analyst note (via Webull) projects Q4 2025 EPS of $1.74, above the current street consensus near $1.64, with cash flow per share also modestly ahead of consensus. ^[34]
• Independent valuation models
  A TradingNEWS article published December 1 builds a dividend‑discount and cash‑flow model that estimates fair value for XOM around $138–$140 per share, implying high‑teens upside from the current price, and frames the stock as a “Strong Buy” heading into 2026. ^[35]
  That view relies on assumptions about sustained free cash flow growth from Guyana, LNG and the Permian, so it sits above the more conservative sell‑side consensus averaging around $128–129. ^[36]

In short, most forecasts see mid‑single‑digit revenue growth, high‑single‑digit earnings growth and modest multiple expansion, with upside skewed if oil prices surprise to the upside.

Flows and sentiment: institutions shuffle, shorts inch up, retail interest rises

Big‑money positioning

December 1 filings and round‑up stories highlight active repositioning by institutional investors:

• Fisher Asset Management increased its stake by 438,345 shares in Q2, bringing its holdings to about 30.85 million shares, or 0.72% of Exxon, worth roughly $3.3 billion and making XOM the firm’s 20th‑largest holding. ^[37]
• Panagora Asset Management trimmed its position by 6.4%, selling 38,995 shares to end Q2 with about 568,554 shares worth $61.3 million. ^[38]
• Prossimo Advisors LLC cut its stake by 56.2%, selling 4,103 shares and retaining just 3,200 shares valued around $345,000. ^[39]

Overall, MarketBeat data suggest that roughly 62% of Exxon’s shares are owned by institutional investors, indicating that despite some trimming at the margins, XOM remains a core holding in many large portfolios. ^[40]

Short interest and retail sentiment

• A Benzinga analysis on December 1 reports that short interest in Exxon has risen about 19.6% since the last report, to 41.7 million shares sold short, or roughly 1.1% of the free float, with days‑to‑cover at about 3.3. ^[41]
  That’s an uptick but still a low absolute level of bearish positioning compared to many large‑cap stocks.
• On the retail side, Indian brokerage platform INDmoney notes that search interest and tracking activity for XOM has climbed roughly 72% between November 1 and December 1, 2025, suggesting growing attention from global investors. ^[42]
• MarketBeat’s “Best Oil Stocks to Watch Today – December 1” list names Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, SLB, and Valero as the five oil stocks drawing the most dollar trading volume in recent sessions — another indication that XOM remains a central liquid proxy for the energy trade. ^[43]

Taken together, flows and sentiment data point to steady institutional ownership, modestly rising short interest, and heightened retail curiosity, rather than frothy speculation or panic.

Key risks: what could derail the bullish case?

Even with strong assets and a solid balance sheet, several risks could pressure Exxon Mobil’s stock:

1. Oil and gas prices stay “lower for longer”
   With Brent currently in the low $60s and OPEC+ extending its output framework through 2026, a sustained period of subdued prices would cap cash flows and erode returns on large projects. ^[44]
2. Project and political risk in Guyana
   Guyana has been a spectacular growth engine, but intense public debate over revenue‑sharing and environmental impacts is ongoing, and incremental production beyond design limits has drawn scrutiny. ^[45]
   Any regulatory shifts, tax changes or social unrest could affect project economics.
3. Energy transition and policy uncertainty
   The Baytown hydrogen project pause highlights the difficulty of earning competitive returns in low‑carbon projects without robust demand or supportive policy frameworks. ^[46]
   Climate litigation, carbon taxes, or more aggressive regulation of fossil fuels could all compress long‑term valuations for oil majors.
4. Execution risk on mega‑projects
   While Exxon has a strong track record, mega‑projects in LNG, petrochemicals, and offshore oil carry cost‑overrun and delay risk, which can compound if commodity prices fall at the wrong time.
5. General market and macro risk
   Broader equity volatility, higher interest rates and shifting risk appetite can affect valuation multiples even if Exxon’s fundamentals remain sound. Barron’s, for example, lists Exxon among 16 “quality stocks” recommended for navigating a choppy, AI‑driven market, but even quality names can face de‑rating in a risk‑off environment. ^[47]

What to watch next for XOM investors

Going into the rest of December and early 2026, a few catalysts stand out:

• Q4 2025 earnings – Whether Exxon can meet or beat the higher end of EPS and cash‑flow forecasts, especially with oil prices stuck in the low 60s. ^[48]
• Updated capital‑allocation guidance – Any changes to the $27–29 billion capex framework or buyback pace will affect valuation models. ^[49]
• Guyana and Permian progress – Additional project approvals, FPSO ramp‑ups, or regulatory developments in Guyana will feed directly into long‑term volume and cash‑flow expectations. ^[50]
• Further analyst revisions – With UBS now at $145 and others clustering in the $125–135 band, any move in consensus targets or ratings — up or down — could be a near‑term sentiment driver. ^[51]
• Oil market developments – Ongoing OPEC+ monitoring, geopolitical disruptions (like issues around the Caspian Pipeline) and global demand trends will remain the biggest day‑to‑day swing factors for XOM. ^[52]

Bottom line

On December 1, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock is trading near multi‑year highs, offering:

• A 3.5% dividend yield with a multi‑decade record of growth. ^[53]
• Record production and long‑run volume growth from Guyana and the Permian. ^[54]
• A fortress balance sheet and sizable buybacks. ^[55]
• Consensus upside in the low double digits, with more aggressive models pointing to fair value in the high $130s. ^[56]

At the same time, subdued oil prices, energy‑transition uncertainties and political risk around key projects mean the path to those targets is unlikely to be a straight line.

For investors following XOM, the story into 2026 is less about discovering a “hidden” stock and more about deciding whether Exxon’s combination of yield, quality and low‑cost growth is worth paying a premium multiple for in a world that still very much runs on oil and gas — but increasingly demands lower‑carbon solutions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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