Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Stock Outlook: 2025 Gold Rally, New Power Deal and 2026 Forecasts

Published: 2 December 2025

Northern Star Resources share price: near record highs after a huge 2025 rally

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST), Australia’s largest listed gold miner, is trading close to record territory after an extraordinary year for both gold and gold equities.

The stock is changing hands around A$27.20, according to live pricing from Investing.com and MarketScreener, putting it just below its recent all‑time highs in the high A$27 range. ^[1]
Based on 2025 performance data, Northern Star’s shares are up around 90% year to date, one of the strongest runs in its listed history. ^[2]
Over the last 12 months, the stock has outperformed both its sector and the broader ASX 200 by more than 40 and 60 percentage points respectively, according to Market Index performance figures. ^[3]
The trailing dividend profile remains an additional attraction, with an indicated yield of roughly 2% (DPS of A$0.55 per share over the last 12 months). ^[4]

In other words, investors coming fresh to Northern Star today are not looking at a neglected mid‑cap producer – they’re looking at a large‑cap gold growth stock that has already re‑rated aggressively in 2025.

New on 2 December 2025: 25‑year renewable power deal for KCGM

The most recent piece of price‑relevant news dropped on 2 December 2025 and goes straight to the heart of Northern Star’s cost base and ESG profile.

Independent power producer Zenith Energy has signed a 25‑year power purchase agreement (PPA) to supply energy to Northern Star’s flagship Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) operations. ^[5]

Key elements of the deal:

Zenith will fund, build, own and operate the power facilities.
The project will deliver:
- 256 MW of wind generation
- 138 MW of solar generation
- 138 MW / 300 MWh of battery storage
The renewables will be supported by a 120 MW thermal generation joint venture with Northern Star plus a new 132 kV transmission network and substations, collectively branded the Eastern Goldfields Power Projects. ^[6]
Commissioning is expected to begin around mid‑2027, subject to environmental and regulatory approvals. ^[7]

From a stock perspective, the PPA matters because:

It locks in long‑term power security for KCGM, Northern Star’s key growth asset.
A high share of renewables should reduce carbon intensity and can help meet investor ESG expectations.
Over time, depending on contract structure and fuel costs, this sort of hybrid system can stabilise or lower unit power costs, buffering the company against energy‑price volatility.

For a company battling rising all‑in sustaining costs (AISC), anything that improves energy certainty and long‑term costs goes straight into the valuation debate.

Strategic expansion: De Grey takeover, Hemi project and growth options

2025 has also been the year Northern Star fully pivoted from “turnaround specialist” to long‑duration growth platform.

De Grey takeover and Hemi

On 16 April 2025, Northern Star completed a ~A$5 billion all‑scrip takeover of De Grey Mining, delivering ownership of the Hemi gold discovery in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. ^[8]
Hemi is expected to cost about A$1.3 billion to develop and is initially planned as a 12‑year operation, creating hundreds of construction and operating jobs. ^[9]
The transaction is expected to lift Northern Star’s production profile from about 2 million ounces a year to roughly 2.5 million ounces by FY29 once Hemi ramps up. ^[10]

Northern Star’s own Hemi project page puts some numbers around the scale of the orebody:

11.2 Moz of Mineral Resources and 6.0 Moz of Ore Reserves, based on the latest published estimates. ^[11]
Simple open‑pit mining with significant underground potential, 85 km south of Port Hedland. ^[12]

The company’s November 2025 European roadshow presentation reiterates that Hemi, together with the KCGM mill expansion, underpins a 10+ year, ~2 Moz per year reserve‑backed production profile, with the company targeting a position in the first half of the global cost curve once growth projects are complete. ^[13]

Alaska Range and Pilbara consolidation

Alongside Hemi, Northern Star has continued to bolt on growth and optionality:

Alaska Range earn‑in (PolarX) – In August 2025, the company agreed to earn up to 70% of the Alaska Range Project in the US via an incorporated JV, committing staged contributions totalling US$39 million over up to five years to fund exploration and a pre‑feasibility study. ^[14]
Mt Roe Mining acquisition (Mantle Minerals) – In August 2025, Northern Star paid A$13.5 million for Mt Roe Mining, which holds five tenements north of Port Hedland, further strengthening its Pilbara footprint around Hemi. ^[15]

Together, these moves deepen Northern Star’s exposure to two “tier‑one” jurisdictions – Western Australia and Alaska – with a pipeline of large‑scale gold projects to feed its mills well into the 2030s.

Quarterly results: higher costs, guidance intact

The latest detailed operational update came with the September 2025 quarter (Q1 FY26), released in late October.

According to Mining Weekly’s summary of the company’s quarterly report: ^[16]

Gold sales:
- Total Q1 gold sold: 381,055 oz
- Kalgoorlie: 202,812 oz at AISC A$2,474/oz
- Yandal: 113,422 oz at AISC A$2,778/oz
- Pogo (Alaska): 64,821 oz at AISC US$1,453/oz
Costs:
- Group AISC: A$2,522/oz, a sharp rise versus FY25’s average, reflecting inflation and heavy growth capex.
- All‑in costs (AIC): A$3,989/oz, up year‑on‑year due to major projects such as the KCGM mill expansion.
Guidance:
- FY26 gold sales guidance of 1.7–1.85 Moz was reaffirmed.
- FY26 AISC guidance of A$2,300–2,700/oz was also maintained, with the company flagging roughly 5% inflationary pressure across its operations (around A$100/oz increase versus the prior year).

Northern Star also noted two operational incidents early in the December quarter at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie that could defer up to 20,000 oz of production, with volumes expected to be recovered later in the financial year. ^[17]

Stocks Down Under’s late‑November review of the stock picked up on this cost theme, highlighting that AISC had jumped about 16–17% from FY25 levels to the September‑quarter figure of A$2,522/oz, and warning that margin compression becomes a bigger risk if gold prices retreat from current extremes. ^[18]

Macro tailwind: gold at record highs

Northern Star’s share price surge needs to be viewed in the context of one of the wildest gold rallies on record:

A Market Index deep dive from early October notes that gold futures rallied 16% in six weeks to around US$3,943/oz, driven by geopolitics, US fiscal concerns and relentless central‑bank buying. ^[19]
The same piece cites UBS research suggesting up to 150% upside for gold miners under a US$4,500/oz gold price scenario, with Northern Star and Regis Resources flagged as offering the most upside leverage in that environment. ^[20]

UBS’s scenario analysis is particularly eye‑catching for NST:

Current UBS target: A$21.10
Under a US$4,500/oz gold case: A$50.70 target – implying about 140% upside from that starting point. ^[21]

However, those numbers are scenario‑based, not base‑case forecasts. UBS also notes that Northern Star’s free‑cash‑flow yield remains modest in the near term (0.4% on current prices, rising to 3.0% in the high‑gold scenario) because capex is elevated until around FY29. ^[22]

In parallel, Goldman Sachs has turned structurally more bullish on gold and on Northern Star specifically:

In September 2025, the bank lifted its long‑term gold price forecast to US$3,300/oz (from US$2,850), with upside cases up to US$4,500–5,000/oz, and highlighted Northern Star as a well‑positioned “Buy” among large‑cap Australian gold miners. ^[23]

For Northern Star shareholders, 2025 has been a perfect storm of rising volumes, rising prices and a re‑rating in expectations.

Analyst ratings and NST stock forecasts

Despite the big move in the share price, the sell‑side remains broadly constructive – though there is growing debate about valuation.

Street consensus

MarketScreener’s consensus snapshot (as at late November 2025) shows: ^[24]

Mean rating: Outperform
Number of covering analysts: 16
Last close price: A$27.20
Average target price:A$27.39 (around 0.7% above the last close – essentially “fairly valued”)
Target range:
- High: A$35.00
- Low: A$13.70

The narrow gap between current price and average target suggests that further upside now depends heavily on continued execution and sustained high gold prices, rather than on simple “catch‑up” re‑rating.

Goldman Sachs and UBS

Goldman Sachs – via the Insider Monkey summary – argues Northern Star is undervalued versus peers, with strong profit margins and leverage to both stable and “stress” scenarios for gold, and expects gold stocks like NST to outperform the metal itself through 2025. ^[25]
UBS, as discussed above, sees outsized upside for Northern Star under a very bullish gold scenario, but is explicit that heavy capex means free cash flow is muted until around FY29, which tempers near‑term yield. ^[26]

Simply Wall St and valuation debate

Simply Wall St’s November 2025 valuation note on Northern Star captures the split in opinion: ^[27]

Its “most popular narrative” suggests NST is about 8–9% overvalued relative to a fair value estimate of A$22 per share, based on one set of assumptions.
At the same time, the platform’s own discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model points to the stock trading roughly 45% below intrinsic value, depending on long‑term growth and price assumptions.

In a separate piece focusing on the balance sheet, Simply Wall St notes that at December 2024 Northern Star had around A$949.5 million of debt, offset by A$1.05 billion in cash, leaving it in a modest net cash position of roughly A$96 million, with solid EBIT growth and typical free‑cash‑flow conversion over the last three years. ^[28]

Other commentary

Stocks Down Under (25 November 2025) describes Northern Star as a “quality business” but flags that, after a ~64% year‑to‑date gain at that point and sharply higher AISC, the stock is increasingly “priced for delivery” and that new investors may wish to watch for a deeper pullback before entering. ^[29]
Motley Fool Australia (1 December 2025) recently placed Northern Star in its “hold” bucket in a buy/hold/sell rundown, warning that the shares could remain under pressure after such a strong run, even with a supportive gold backdrop. ^[30]

Taken together, the analyst and commentator picture looks like this:

Institutional consensus: constructive but increasingly valuation‑sensitive. Bullish long‑term growth and gold price views are running up against near‑term cost inflation and a share price already discounting a lot of good news.

Balance sheet, dividends and major shareholders

Northern Star’s size and capital structure are central to its investment case:

Free‑cash‑flow generation in FY25 was strong, helping support an increased final dividend of A$0.30 per share paid in late September 2025, following an interim A$0.25 earlier in the year. ^[31]
The trailing twelve‑month dividend (A$0.55) implies a payout ratio of about 49%, according to Market Index data. ^[32]
Major global institutions including BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street and VanEck hold substantial stakes, with several adjusting positions through 2025 as the share price climbed. ^[33]

Simply Wall St’s debt analysis underlines that, despite hefty liabilities tied to future capex, Northern Star currently carries more cash than debt, which gives the board flexibility to keep funding growth, pay dividends and still contemplate opportunistic M&A. ^[34]

Key opportunities for Northern Star shareholders

From today’s vantage point (2 December 2025), the bullish case for NST rests on several pillars:

Scale and asset quality
- ~1.6 Moz of gold sold in FY25 across three production centres (Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo) and a decade‑long reserve‑backed production profile targeting around 2 Moz per year once current projects are complete. ^[35]
Growth pipeline
- The KCGM mill expansion and Hemi Development Project are designed to increase group output and push the portfolio further into the lower half of the global cost curve over time. ^[36]
Leverage to structurally higher gold prices
- Multiple banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, see a case for gold above US$4,000/oz into 2026, and model substantial valuation upside for miners that can deliver volume and keep costs contained. ^[37]
ESG and power security
- The Zenith Energy 25‑year PPA should help de‑risk the energy side of KCGM, reduce emissions intensity and potentially support margins through a more stable, renewable‑heavy power mix. ^[38]
Robust balance sheet and dividend track record
- A net‑cash position, strong institutional support and a decade‑long history of paying dividends give Northern Star a degree of resilience unusual for a growth‑focused miner. ^[39]

Key risks and what to watch into 2026

The bear (or at least cautious) case is far from trivial:

Cost inflation and AISC creep
- The step‑up in AISC to A$2,522/oz in the September quarter cannot be ignored. If inflation remains sticky or operating hiccups persist, margins could shrink quickly if gold prices consolidate or pull back. ^[40]
Capex blowouts and execution risk
- KCGM’s mill expansion, the Hemi development and the Eastern Goldfields Power Projects all involve multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar capital commitments. Cost overruns, delays or technical issues could erode returns.
Regulatory and approvals timing
- Northern Star has flagged that not all primary environmental approvals for Hemi are likely to be in place by the end of 2025, with the project following a staged approvals and FID timeline. ^[41]
Gold price downside scenarios
- The 2025 rally has been extraordinary. If macro conditions ease or central‑bank buying slows, a retracement in gold could coincidentally hit just as Northern Star’s capex peaks, compressing cash flows and limiting dividend growth.
Valuation risk after a 90%+ run
- With the share price near its consensus target and many long‑term positives already priced in, any disappointment in quarterly numbers or project updates could trigger sharp corrections, as recent heavy‑volume pullbacks have already hinted. ^[42]

Near‑term catalysts and checkpoints include:

Q2 FY26 results (due around February 2026) – especially trends in AISC vs guidance. ^[43]
Hemi approvals and updated reserves/resources – expected no later than the May 2026 annual resources statement. ^[44]
Progress on KCGM expansion and the Eastern Goldfields Power Projects, including any updated capex and commissioning timelines. ^[45]

Bottom line: Northern Star at the rich end of the gold cycle

As of 2 December 2025, Northern Star Resources sits at an interesting junction:

It is larger, higher‑quality and more growth‑leveraged than at any point in its history, with tier‑one assets, a deep project pipeline and a supportive gold price backdrop.
The stock has already delivered near‑triple‑digit gains in 2025, outpacing almost everything else on the ASX, and trades roughly in line with the average analyst target. ^[46]
Opinions among analysts and commentators are divided primarily on valuation and timing, not on the quality of the business itself.

For readers and investors, Northern Star now looks less like a simple “cheap gold stock” and more like a high‑expectation growth franchise where future returns will hinge on whether management can:

Hold the line on costs,
Deliver Hemi and KCGM on time and budget, and
Continue to benefit from an elevated gold price environment without over‑stretching the balance sheet.

References