National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) Stock on 2 December 2025: Dividend Update, Share Price Outlook and 2026 Forecast

As at early afternoon on 2 December 2025, National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) shares are trading a little above A$40, modestly higher than Monday’s close of A$39.85. Intraday data from local market trackers shows NAB changing hands around A$40.10–A$40.12, with a session range near A$39.83 to A$40.17 and a market capitalisation of roughly A$123 billion. ^[1]

That leaves the stock about 10–12% below its early‑November high around A$45.25 but still comfortably above where it started the year, with total share price gains for 2025 running in the high single digits depending on the reference date. ^[2]

Against this backdrop, today’s key NAB story is a detailed update to its final dividend and dividend reinvestment plan (DRP), alongside an increasingly complex mix of rate expectations, new mortgage-lending caps, and a busy December shareholder calendar.

1. Today’s headline: NAB tweaks DRP pricing on its FY25 final dividend

On 2 December 2025, National Australia Bank released an updated notice on its final dividend distribution, clarifying the mechanics and pricing of its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) for the year ended 30 September 2025. ^[3]

Key points for income investors:

Final dividend amount: NAB has confirmed a fully franked final dividend of 85 cents per share, bringing the FY25 total to 170 cents, up slightly from 169 cents in FY24. ^[4]
Payment and ex‑dates:
- Ex‑dividend date: 11 November 2025
- Record date: 12 November 2025
- Payment date: 12 December 2025 ^[5]
DRP pricing:
- Pricing period: the 10 trading days from 18 November to 1 December 2025
- No discount has been applied to the DRP price
- NAB’s DRP/BSP issue price for the 12 December 2025 allotment has been set at A$40.45 per share, very close to the current on‑market price. ^[6]

TipRanks summarised today’s ASX announcement, noting the DRP revision and highlighting that the latest analyst rating captured by its platform remains a Hold with a A$40.00 price target, a year‑to‑date price gain of around 13%, and a market cap in the low A$120 billions. ^[7]

At a share price near A$40, NAB’s 170‑cent annual dividend equates to a cash yield of roughly 4.2%, or considerably more for investors who can fully utilise franking credits. External brokerage data pegs the trailing dividend yield at about 4.2–4.3%, with a price/earnings ratio a touch above 18 times and earnings per share around A$2.21. ^[8]

2. Share price performance: from record highs to a consolidation zone

NAB’s stock has had a busy 2025 on the ASX:

It rallied strongly into early November, touching an intraday high near A$45.25 just before its full‑year results. ^[9]
The results day sell‑off on 6 November knocked roughly 4% off the share price, with the stock closing at A$43.06 despite a broadly higher market. ^[10]
Through late November, NAB drifted down into the A$40–41 range, a move of around 10–12% off the peak, before stabilising close to A$40 heading into December. ^[11]

A detailed markets piece on 27 November argued that the pull‑back looks more like a multi‑factor “de‑rating” than a panic sell‑off, driven by:

Flat FY25 profit versus market expectations
Growing regulatory pressure on riskier property lending
Concern about how long the current housing and credit cycle can run without a pick‑up in arrears. TS2 Tech

At today’s level, NAB trades near the middle of its 52‑week range, not at distressed levels, but no longer at the premium price that followed the earlier bank rally. TS2 Tech+1

3. FY25 results: steady earnings, high capital, and a generous payout

NAB’s full‑year 2025 results, released on 6 November, set the fundamental backdrop for today’s share price and dividend decisions. ^[12]

Headline numbers for the year to 30 September 2025: ^[13]

Net interest income: A$17.4 billion, up 3.8% on FY24
Net operating income: A$20.8 billion, up 2.9%
Underlying profit: A$11.0 billion, up 1.3%
Cash earnings: A$7.09 billion, effectively flat (‑0.2%) versus last year
Statutory net profit attributable to owners: A$6.76 billion, down 2.9%
Dividend per share:170 cents, up 1 cent on FY24
Cash earnings per share: 231.8 cents, up 2.6%
Statutory return on equity (ROE): 10.8% (down 60 bps)
Cash ROE: 11.4% (down 20 bps) ^[14]

On capital and liquidity, the bank remains comfortably above prudential minima:

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: 11.7% as at 30 September 2025
Pro‑forma CET1: 11.81%, factoring in the sale of the remaining 20% stake in MLC Life to Nippon Life (completed in October). ^[15]
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): 135%
Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): 116% ^[16]

Divisional performance was broadly positive despite the flat group result:

Business & Private Banking cash earnings rose 1.6%
Personal Banking cash earnings jumped 9.9%
Corporate & Institutional Banking cash earnings grew 4.7%
New Zealand Banking cash earnings improved 1.5% ^[17]

The combination of stable cash earnings, a slightly lower ROE, and strong capital helps explain why NAB has been able to hold its high dividend payout ratio (cash payout around the low‑70s percent of earnings) while also completing A$8 billion of on‑market buybacks since 2021 and continuing to neutralise the DRP. ^[18]

4. Rates, inflation and housing: the macro puzzle around NAB

4.1 NAB’s own economics team: soft landing, rates on hold – but risks rising

NAB’s November “Forward View Australia – Goldilocks on hiatus” sets out the bank’s base‑case view for the economy: ^[19]

A “soft landing” remains the central scenario, with growth near trend and only a modest rise in unemployment.
Underlying inflation is expected to stay above 3% for several quarters before gradually drifting back into the RBA’s 2–3% target band and towards about 2.5% by 2027.
With limited spare capacity and still‑firm demand, NAB’s economists see the cash rate on hold at 3.6% for the foreseeable future, barring a major external shock.

However, more recent commentary referenced in ABC News and specialist mortgage coverage goes a step further: NAB’s team now argues that the easing cycle is “over”, and that any renewed acceleration in growth or a tightening labour market could force the Reserve Bank to contemplate rate hikes as early as the first half of 2026. ^[20]

For NAB shareholders, that mix matters:

Higher‑for‑longer or even slightly higher rates can support net interest margins (NIMs).
The same backdrop increases the risk of stress among highly leveraged borrowers, especially given the run‑up in housing prices and the cost‑of‑living squeeze. ^[21]

4.2 APRA’s high DTI caps: pressure on the riskier end of mortgage growth

The other big macro lever for NAB is regulation rather than rates. Australia’s banking regulator APRA has introduced a new cap on high debt‑to‑income (DTI) home lending, limiting loans with a DTI above a set threshold to no more than 20% of new lending, with the rule due to take effect from 1 February 2026. ^[22]

Commentary on the new cap notes that:

It primarily targets the most leveraged borrowers and the highest‑margin segments of the mortgage market.
While Australian banks, including NAB, have already tightened underwriting standards in recent years, the rule will still act as a drag on loan growth at the high‑risk end. ^[23]

A detailed markets piece focusing on NAB argued that these macro‑prudential changes, layered on top of elevated house prices and a “no more cuts” rates outlook, are a key reason why investors have marked the shares down from their November highs. TS2 Tech

5. Strategy update: digital transformation, housing ambition and executive changes

5.1 Multi‑cloud technology push and new transformation leadership

Technology and operational resilience remain central to NAB’s equity story. In October, FinTech Futures reported that NAB had formally added Google Cloud to its existing Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure partnerships, making it one of the few major banks to lean fully into a multi‑cloud architecture. ^[24]

According to NAB’s enterprise technology leadership, the program has:

Moved nearly 90% of the bank’s applications to the cloud (from just 2% in 2018)
Delivered an 89% reduction in critical and high‑severity outages
Made its systems “significantly more reliable” and more portable across cloud providers. ^[25]

To keep that modernisation going, NAB has elevated Shane Conway to Group Executive, Transformation, effective 1 December 2025, with a mandate to continue driving technology simplification and digital change. ^[26]

5.2 Tackling the housing crisis: A$60 billion financing ambition

NAB has also moved to align its strategy with the political and social spotlight on housing affordability. In late October, CEO Andrew Irvine unveiled an ambition to provide at least A$60 billion in housing‑related financing by 2030, including: ^[27]

A$30 billion to boost supply in residential development – from build‑to‑rent projects and student accommodation to community housing
A$30 billion to first‑home buyers via the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme

NAB estimates that this financing could support around 55,000 first‑home‑buyer loans and the development of about 50,000 new homes, assuming supportive government policy settings and manageable construction capacity constraints. ^[28]

Irvine has repeatedly described housing as “Australia’s biggest societal and policy challenge”, and the bank is clearly positioning itself as a core part of the solution — a stance that may help defend its franchise and brand in a politically sensitive market while still generating profitable lending. ^[29]

5.3 Executive bench: CFO transition and governance signals

NAB has seen significant movement in its finance leadership:

In March 2025, long‑time executive Nathan Goonan resigned as Group CFO to take up the same role at Westpac. ^[30]
Shaun Dooley, previously Group Chief Risk Officer, stepped in as acting CFO from March 2025. ^[31]
In August, NAB announced the appointment of Inder Singh, currently CFO at insurer QBE, as Group Chief Financial Officer and Group Executive, Strategy, effective March 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. ^[32]

Singh is recognised for his experience in complex, highly regulated environments and in funding technology and transformation programs, reinforcing the message that NAB intends to marry capital discipline with continued investment in digital and risk infrastructure. ^[33]

6. ESG and the 12 December AGM: climate and governance on the agenda

NAB’s 2025 Annual General Meeting will be held on 12 December 2025 as a hybrid physical–virtual event in Melbourne. ^[34]

The AGM is notable for a series of shareholder‑requisitioned resolutions that focus on governance and climate risk: ^[35]

A special resolution (Item 5(a)) seeks to amend the company’s constitution to make it easier for shareholders to put ordinary resolutions on strategic and ESG issues to a vote.
Contingent ordinary resolutions (Items 5(b)–5(d)) request additional disclosures and commitments around climate, nature and deforestation finance.

The board has recommended shareholders vote against these proposals, arguing that:

NAB already reports extensively through its Climate Report, Sustainability Data Pack and other disclosures.
It has implemented a Climate Transition Plan (CTP) Assessment Framework that scores in‑scope customers on their decarbonisation progress, including whether their targets align with science‑based pathways and the Paris Agreement. ^[36]
The bank has set 12 interim sector decarbonisation targets across eight high‑emitting sectors, applying sustainability and climate‑risk appetite settings at both customer and portfolio levels. ^[37]

Environmental groups and some institutional investors argue that NAB should go further, especially on deforestation and fossil fuel finance, while activist organisation Market Forces has highlighted NAB’s decision to cease funding for some fossil‑fuel clients deemed misaligned with the Paris Agreement trajectory. ^[38]

For shareholders, the AGM will be a key point for:

Testing how the board balances capital returns, growth and climate risk
Gauging the tone on future shareholder engagement and the legitimacy of ESG‑driven resolutions in Australian corporate law

7. What are analysts saying about NAB’s valuation and outlook?

There is no single consensus view on NAB at current prices, but some patterns stand out.

7.1 Broker ratings and price targets

TipRanks’ latest summary of Australian broker calls shows the most recent rating as “Hold”, with a A$40.00 price target – very close to today’s price – and a technical signal skewed to “Buy”. ^[39]
A separate TipRanks note following the FY25 results in early November cited a Hold rating with a A$37.50 target, indicating modest downside from the then‑elevated share price above A$43. ^[40]
Market data collated by Investing.com, moomoo and other platforms suggests that across roughly 14 analysts covering the ASX‑listed NAB, the average 12‑month target price is around A$38.0, with estimates clustering roughly between A$29 and A$46.30. ^[41]
That same consensus data currently tags NAB with a “Sell” or underweight tilt overall (only a minority of brokers rating it a Buy), reflecting concerns about growth, margins and capital management after the strong multi‑year run. ^[42]

Individual broker calls underscore the divergence:

A Proactive Investors summary of a Morgan Stanley note in November reported that the broker cut NAB to “equal‑weight” after flat profit and soft guidance, pointing out that total shareholder return has fallen about 30% since March and that the earnings and capital outlook are not strong enough to support near‑term share price upside. ^[43]
A Simply Wall St. update highlighted that analysts nudged their fair value estimate from A$36.58 to A$37.01 after revising assumptions on margins and earnings growth — still below the A$43 level the shares were trading at immediately after the results. ^[44]

Taken together, the centre of gravity for valuation appears to sit in the mid‑to‑high A$30s, with today’s A$40 price:

Slightly above the average 12‑month target,
But not dramatically out of line with the upper end of fair‑value ranges, especially for investors who place a premium on fully franked dividends and a relatively defensive business model. ^[45]

7.2 Big picture: TSR, income and relative performance

NAB’s own reporting highlights that over the five years to 30 September 2025, its total shareholder return (TSR) was about 189.8%, ahead of the roughly 168% average for its major bank peers, helped by solid dividends and substantial buybacks. ^[46]

Third‑party trading and brokerage platforms show:

Dividend yield around 4.2–4.3% at current prices
P/E ratio near 18 times, slightly above NAB’s long‑term average but not extreme by global big‑bank standards
YTD share price gains in the high single digits to low teens, depending on the starting point used, with NAB outpacing inflation and delivering positive real returns even after the recent pull‑back. ^[47]

8. Key risks and what to watch into 2026

For investors tracking NAB through 2026, the main swing factors are relatively clear:

Credit quality and arrears
- How households cope with higher‑for‑longer mortgage rates, stubborn inflation and rising dwelling values will be crucial.
- Any sustained rise in arrears or impairment charges above current expectations would pressure both earnings and capital. ^[48]
Impact of APRA’s lending rules
- The new high‑DTI cap and trust‑lending curbs will almost certainly cool some of the highest‑margin mortgage segments.
- The question is whether NAB can compensate via fee income, business lending, and cost control, or whether overall earnings growth will drift down. TS2 Tech+1
Net interest margins in a noisy rate environment
- NAB’s own economists see rates on hold for now, but markets and some commentators are beginning to price a non‑trivial chance of a rate hike in 2026.
- NIM resilience will depend on competitive dynamics in deposits and mortgages as much as on headline cash‑rate moves. ^[49]
Execution on technology and transformation
- The multi‑cloud program and the appointment of a dedicated Group Executive, Transformation, are designed to drive fewer outages, lower cost‑to‑serve and better digital experiences.
- If these investments deliver, NAB could keep its cost‑to‑income ratio trending down, which would support earnings even under modest revenue growth. ^[50]
Climate and ESG expectations
- Shareholder resolutions at the AGM and ongoing campaigns by climate groups will keep NAB’s fossil‑fuel and deforestation exposures under scrutiny.
- How effectively the bank uses its CTP assessment framework and sector targets to manage risk — while maintaining relationships with clients in transition — will be a medium‑term valuation input for ESG‑conscious investors. ^[51]

9. Bottom line: where NAB stands on 2 December 2025

As of 2 December 2025, National Australia Bank sits at a crossroads between solid fundamentals and growing constraints:

Balance sheet strength: High capital ratios, strong liquidity and a long track record of paying fully franked dividends. ^[52]
Earnings profile: Cash earnings essentially flat in FY25 but supported by steady volume growth and resilient business conditions in key segments. ^[53]
Shareholder returns: A fully franked 170‑cent dividend, an active buyback history and five‑year TSR comfortably ahead of peers. ^[54]
Headwinds: A tougher regulatory stance on housing risk, limited slack in the economy, sticky inflation, and an analyst community whose average price targets sit a few dollars below the current share price. ^[55]
Strategic levers: Continued investment in cloud and digital, a prominent A$60 billion affordable‑housing ambition, and a refreshed finance and transformation leadership team. ^[56]

For income‑focused investors, NAB remains one of the core fully franked dividend names on the ASX, now trading only slightly above the centre of its analyst target range and offering a yield materially higher than term‑deposit rates. For those with a more growth‑oriented or valuation‑sensitive lens, the current price reflects a balance between a still‑solid franchise and non‑trivial risks around regulation, climate expectations and the interest‑rate path.