Keppel Ltd (SGX: BN4) Near Record Highs: Earnings Jump, M1 Sale and Buybacks Drive 2025 Outlook

As of 2 December 2025, Keppel Ltd (SGX: BN4) is trading close to its all‑time high, capping a year of strong earnings growth, aggressive asset monetisation and heavy share buybacks.

At around S$10.20–S$10.25 in midday trading, Keppel’s share price is up about 52% over the past 12 months, giving the Singapore-listed asset manager and operator a market capitalisation of roughly S$18.5 billion. ^[1]

Analysts broadly remain positive, but there is a widening debate over valuation after the stock’s sharp rerating. Below is a detailed overview of the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Keppel as at 2 December 2025.

Keppel share price today: strong run with relatively low volatility

According to StockAnalysis and SGX-linked data, Keppel shares are trading around S$10.24 as of late morning on 2 December 2025, within a 52‑week range of S$5.61 to S$10.38. Over the past year, the stock has gained just over 52%, outpacing the Straits Times Index and many Singapore blue chips. ^[2]

Key snapshot metrics (trailing 12 months): ^[3]

Share price: ~S$10.24
Market cap: ~S$18.5 billion
Revenue (ttm): S$6.43 billion
Net income (ttm): ~S$1.0 billion
EPS (ttm): ~S$0.55
PE ratio: ~21x (forward PE ~21x)
Dividend (ttm): S$0.34 per share
Dividend yield: ~3.3%
52‑week performance: ≈ +52%
Beta: ~0.5, indicating lower volatility than the broader market

Technical services such as StockInvest.us describe Keppel as a relatively low‑risk, steadily trending stock: daily volatility has hovered around 1–2%, and the name has risen in 5 of the last 10 sessions, with a modest 1–2% gain over the past two weeks. A recent analysis flags a “sell signal” from a short‑term pivot top but still labels overall risk as low, with a suggested stop‑loss just under S$9.85. ^[4]

Over a longer horizon, Keppel’s transformation is evident: a September 2025 review by Simply Wall St notes that investing in Keppel five years ago would have produced a total return of about 320%, reflecting both price appreciation and distributions. ^[5]

From shipyard to “New Keppel”: business model and restructuring

Keppel is now positioned as a global asset manager and operator with four main platforms: Infrastructure, Real Estate, Connectivity, and Fund Management & Investment. The company has operations in more than 20 countries and Temasek Holdings as a major shareholder with roughly a 21% stake. ^[6]

Key milestones in the transformation:

Divestment of Offshore & Marine (O&M): Keppel completed the sale of its offshore and marine division to Sembcorp Marine (now Seatrium) in 2023, exiting its historic rig-building core. ^[7]
Rebranding to Keppel Ltd: Effective 1 January 2024, Keppel Corporation Limited changed its name to Keppel Ltd. The SGX trading counter name switched to “Keppel” on 4 January 2024, while the ticker BN4 remained unchanged. ^[8]
Asset‑light, capital‑recycling model: Since 2020, Keppel has focused on monetising assets and recycling capital into higher‑growth, higher‑return opportunities, while growing third‑party funds under management.

This shift explains two seemingly contradictory data points: full‑year 2024 earnings fell sharply versus an unusually strong 2023 (due to large one‑off gains from O&M transactions), yet underlying recurring income and returns on capital have been trending up. StockAnalysis data show 2024 revenue at S$6.6 billion (down about 5% year on year) and net profit around S$940 million, roughly 77% lower than the prior year’s exceptional base. ^[9]

9M 2025 results: net profit up more than 25%, recurring income up ~15%

The most important update for investors this quarter is Keppel’s business update for the nine months ended September 2025.

According to Keppel’s own 9M 2025 presentation and media release, as well as Reuters reporting: ^[10]

Net profit for the “New Keppel” (excluding legacy non‑core assets and M1’s telco business) rose by more than 25% year on year.
Overall net profit for the group still grew by over 5% even after an estimated S$222 million accounting loss related to the planned sale of M1’s telecom operations. ^[11]
Recurring income (primarily asset management fees and operating income) increased by close to 15% year on year, underscoring the shift toward more stable fee-based and operating cash flows. ^[12]
All three operating segments—Infrastructure, Real Estate and Connectivity—delivered earnings growth in the period. ^[13]

Reuters notes that the strong update pushed Keppel’s shares to a record high of about S$10.03 in late October and extended an eight‑day winning streak at the time. ^[14]

On the capital recycling side, The Smart Investor’s 1 December 2025 article highlights that Keppel monetised roughly S$2.4 billion of assets in 9M 2025, bringing total monetisation since October 2020 to around S$14 billion. Management indicated that more than S$500 million of further deals are in the pipeline over the coming months. ^[15]

M1 sale: unlocking close to S$1 billion cash and refocusing connectivity

A pivotal corporate action in 2025 is Keppel’s proposed divestment of the M1 telecom business to Simba Telecom.

On 11 August 2025, Keppel announced that it would sell its 83.9% effective stake in M1’s telco operations to Simba Telecom at an enterprise value of S$1.43 billion, expecting net cash proceeds of nearly S$1 billion. Keppel will retain M1’s non‑telco information and communications technology (ICT) assets—such as data centres and subsea cable infrastructure—which are more aligned with its digital connectivity strategy. ^[16]

Key points about the transaction: ^[17]

Keppel estimates an accounting loss of about S$222 million from the sale, largely reversing previously recognised fair‑value gains.
Despite this non‑cash hit, the deal is in line with its asset‑light model and frees capital for debt reduction, new investments or potential shareholder returns.
Singapore regulators are reviewing the consolidation of M1 and Simba, which, if approved, would strengthen the third‑ and fourth‑largest telcos’ competitive position.
The sale excludes M1’s ICT and digital infrastructure businesses, which will remain under Keppel and support the Connectivity platform’s long‑term growth.

The Smart Investor’s December blue‑chip update frames the M1 sale as the “most notable deal” of 2025 for Keppel, noting that the transaction is part of a broader asset monetisation programme that has already unlocked S$14 billion since 2020. ^[18]

Asset monetisation and portfolio reshaping

Beyond M1, Keppel has been streamlining and upgrading its portfolio on multiple fronts:

Divestment of 800 Super: Keppel agreed to sell its 40.5% stake in waste management company 800 Super for about S$184 million, achieving roughly 20% EBITDA growth and a mid‑teens internal rate of return over its holding period, according to The Smart Investor’s summary. ^[19]
Real estate recycling: In the first nine months of 2025, Keppel monetised approximately S$830 million of real estate assets, particularly in China, Singapore and Vietnam, while pivoting further towards an asset‑light model. ^[20]
Ongoing non‑core disposals: SGX announcements show steady progress in divesting or liquidating dormant or non‑strategic entities, including a members’ voluntary liquidation of wholly owned subsidiary Techbod Info Tech (Shanghai) Co. Ltd in October 2025, which Keppel said would have no material impact on its net tangible assets or earnings. ^[21]

Since October 2020, Keppel’s cumulative asset monetisation of about S$14 billion has included the exit from O&M, stakes in various infrastructure and real estate vehicles, and other non‑core businesses. Management continues to position this programme as a key engine for funding growth and shareholder returns. ^[22]

Strategic partnerships: AIIB and sustainable infrastructure

Keppel is also deepening its role in the region’s energy transition and infrastructure build‑out.

On 25 June 2025, Keppel announced a strategic partnership with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to mobilise up to US$1.5 billion for sustainable infrastructure investments across the Asia‑Pacific region. ^[23]

The collaboration will target projects in:

Power transmission and distribution
Renewable energy
Digital infrastructure (such as data centres)
Urban services and sustainable urban development

The agreement runs initially through to December 2030 and is intended to combine Keppel’s deal‑sourcing and operating capabilities with AIIB’s capital and multilateral platform. The Smart Investor highlighted this partnership earlier in June as a key positive driver for Keppel’s long‑term growth story. ^[24]

Dividend policy and aggressive share buybacks

Dividend profile

Based on trailing 12‑month data, Keppel has paid S$0.34 per share in dividends, implying a yield of roughly 3.3% at a S$10.24 share price. The most recent ex‑dividend date was 11 August 2025. ^[25]

Multiple Yahoo Finance pieces over 2025 reference a S$0.19 per share dividend linked to FY2024 results, followed by an additional S$0.15 payout in 2025, consistent with the trailing total of 34 cents. ^[26]

The Smart Investor notes that since 2022, Keppel has returned about S$6.6 billion to shareholders via a mix of cash dividends and in‑specie distributions, delivering an annualised total shareholder return of around 38% in that period—well ahead of the STI’s roughly 14.5%. ^[27]

Share buybacks

On top of dividends, Keppel has been extremely active in repurchasing its own shares in 2025.

SGX filings and aggregators like Dividends.sg and SGInvestors show near‑daily “Share Buy Back – Daily Share Buy‑Back Notice” announcements in September, October and November 2025, alongside fresh notices on 1 December 2025. ^[28]

A buyback mandate renewed in April 2025 authorises the purchase of up to about 90.7 million shares, with repurchases carried out via on‑market transactions and all shares held as treasury stock. ^[29]

MarketScreener’s news feed for Keppel in late November repeatedly lists “Keppel Buys Back More Shares”, underlining the intensity of the programme. ^[30]

For investors, these buybacks simultaneously:

Support the share price by adding demand, especially during market dips
Incrementally increase EPS and net asset value per share over time
Signal management’s confidence in the long‑term value of the business

Analyst ratings, price targets and valuation debate

Consensus outlook: mostly positive, with upside seen

Multiple data providers now track analyst coverage on Keppel:

ValueInvesting.io cites an average 12‑month target price of S$11.08, implying about 8% upside, based on a range of S$7.88 to S$13.35 and a BUY consensus from 18 analysts. ^[31]
Fintel shows a similar average target of S$11.08 (median S$11.25), with the same S$7.88–13.35 range. ^[32]
TradingView reports a slightly higher consensus target of S$11.56 (min S$9.50, max S$13.17). ^[33]
Stockopedia places the analyst consensus target at S$11.15, about 8.9% above a recent closing price of S$10.24. ^[34]
Yahoo Finance / BN4.SI summarises an average target around S$10.99, with a low near S$7.80 and high at S$13.17. ^[35]
Beansprout (SGX‑based data), using a broader consensus, shows a higher average target of S$12.455 as of 2 December 2025, implying roughly 22% upside from a spot price of S$10.20. ^[36]
TipRanks reports 11 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell ratings in the past month, with an average target near S$10.95. ^[37]

Taken together, the analyst community is clearly skewed towards “Buy/Outperform”, though there is some dispersion in target prices and perceived upside (roughly 8–22% depending on the source and price reference).

Valuation metrics

On raw multiples, Keppel currently trades at: ^[38]

PE ratio: ~21x trailing earnings
Price‑to‑book: ~1.7x
Dividend yield: ~3.3%

Fintel’s factor scores rank Keppel reasonably well on value (≈61/100) and momentum (≈82/100), with moderate scores for growth and profitability. ^[39]

“Fair value” models: more mixed signals

Not all valuation models see Keppel as cheap at current levels:

A recent Simply Wall St piece (via Yahoo Finance and EODHD) estimates Keppel’s intrinsic value at about S$8.81 per share using a two‑stage discounted cash flow to equity model. With the stock trading above S$10, the article suggests Keppel is close to—or slightly above—its DCF‑based fair value rather than deeply undervalued. ^[40]
GuruFocus’ “Projected FCF” model gives Keppel an intrinsic value of only S$1.60, implying a very high price‑to‑projected‑FCF multiple of about 6.4x, compared with a historical range of roughly 1.1–16.3x. By that specific metric, Keppel looks expensive versus its own history. ^[41]
Simply Wall St’s fair‑value and ROE pieces over 2024–2025 have generally argued that while Keppel’s transformation is promising, investors need to watch the quality and sustainability of earnings, particularly as one‑off gains taper off. ^[42]

In short: sell‑side brokers are mostly bullish, but independent DCF and FCF models are more cautious, reflecting both the stock’s strong run and the inherently judgment‑heavy nature of valuation.

Balance sheet, FUM and growth runway

A central pillar of Keppel’s strategy is to grow third‑party Funds Under Management (FUM) and fee income.

In February 2025, Keppel outlined an interim target of S$100 billion in FUM by end‑2026, and Reuters later reported that the group was “close” to that target as of early 2025. ^[43]

Other 2025 updates include:

Raising about S$6.3 billion in additional FUM year‑to‑date across private funds by August 2025. ^[44]
Launching and growing private credit funds and infrastructure funds as part of its asset‑management franchise. ^[45]

As recurring management fees scale and infrastructure assets mature, Keppel aims to increase the proportion of stable, fee‑based earnings—which can support dividends and potentially justify higher valuation multiples over time.

Risks and overhangs

Despite the strong narrative, several risks remain on investors’ radar:

M1 litigation: Liberty Wireless (parent of Circles.Life) has launched legal proceedings against M1 over a 2019 mobile virtual network agreement. Media reports note that the claim relates to alleged failures to enter into good‑faith negotiations and other contractual disputes. ^[46]
Arbitration with Seatrium: In August 2025, Keppel issued a notice of arbitration against Seatrium relating to the earlier O&M deal. Details remain limited, but the case introduces potential legal and financial uncertainty around legacy offshore & marine exposure. ^[47]
Completion risk on the M1 sale: The M1 telco transaction still requires regulatory approval and successful financing by Simba’s parent Tuas. Delays or restructuring of the deal could affect Keppel’s timeline for deleveraging and capital deployment. ^[48]
Macro and rate sensitivity: Although Keppel’s infrastructure and real estate assets are long‑term in nature, they remain exposed to interest‑rate, currency and demand risks across multiple geographies, particularly China and other emerging Asian markets. This is especially relevant as much of Keppel’s value lies in the valuation of underlying assets and discounted future cash flows. ^[49]
Valuation risk after a strong rally: With the stock up more than 50% in a year and trading at ~21x earnings and ~1.7x book, further upside increasingly depends on continued execution and favourable macro conditions. Any disappointment in FUM growth, asset monetisation or earnings quality could trigger a de‑rating. ^[50]

How Keppel looks now: key takeaways for investors

Putting the pieces together as of 2 December 2025:

Momentum is strong. The share price is near record levels after a year of solid operational performance, strong recurring income growth and active capital recycling. ^[51]
The transformation story is real. Keppel has largely completed its shift away from cyclical rig‑building and into infrastructure, real estate, connectivity and asset management, backed by S$14 billion of asset monetisation and an ambitious S$100 billion FUM target. ^[52]
Capital returns have been generous. Between dividends, in‑specie distributions and heavy buybacks, Keppel has returned billions of dollars to shareholders since 2022 and continues to do so. ^[53]
Analysts are broadly bullish. Most broker and platform consensus data point to a BUY rating and price targets 8–22% above current levels, though independent fair‑value models are more cautious and highlight valuation risk after the rally. ^[54]
Risks are non‑trivial. Legal disputes around M1 and legacy O&M, macro uncertainty, and the possibility that expectations have run ahead of fundamentals remain important points to monitor.

For investors, Keppel in late 2025 is less a cyclical shipyard and more a hybrid of infrastructure operator, asset manager and yield‑plus‑growth vehicle. Whether the current share price fully reflects that shift—or over‑reflects it—will likely depend on how convincingly management can execute on FUM growth, close the M1 sale, and continue delivering double‑digit recurring income growth into 2026 and beyond.