Mumbai, December 2, 2025 — Vodafone Idea Ltd (Vi; NSE: IDEA, BSE: 532822) is back in the spotlight as its stock rallies on hopes of government relief on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues, just as a new telecom tariff-hike cycle and ongoing 5G investments reshape the risk–reward profile for investors.
Key takeaways for Vodafone Idea stock on 2 December 2025
- Share price and volumes: Vodafone Idea traded in the ₹10.11–₹10.32 band on Tuesday and was up roughly 2–3% versus Monday’s close of ₹9.94, with last traded levels around ₹10.1–₹10.3 in late morning/early afternoon trade. Year-to-date, the stock is up about 25%, with a 52‑week range of ₹6.12–₹11.08. [1]
- Heavy trading action: Over 23 crore shares changed hands on the day, with traded value exceeding ₹238 crore, roughly three times the 30‑day average volume — signalling elevated interest from both traders and investors. [2]
- AGR relief hopes in focus: The rally follows comments from Union Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, who said the Centre may finalise recommendations on Vodafone Idea’s AGR relief proposal in the coming weeks, potentially by year‑end, once the company submits a formal request and within the legal limits of the Supreme Court’s recent judgment. [3]
- Regulator asks for clarification: The BSE has formally sought clarification from Vodafone Idea regarding the Economic Times report on AGR relief, underscoring that no official company announcement has yet been filed on this subject. [4]
- Derivatives market split between bulls and hedgers: Call options at a ₹13 strike for the 30 December 2025 expiry have seen strong activity, while put options at a ₹9 strike have also been heavily traded, reflecting a mix of upside speculation and downside protection. [5]
- Fundamentals improving but still strained: Recent quarterly results show modest revenue and ARPU growth and expanded 4G/5G coverage, yet the company remains deeply loss‑making and heavily leveraged, with AGR dues still estimated at around ₹830 billion (US$9.4bn) before any relief. [6]
- Street is cautious: Consensus analyst targets cluster around ₹7–₹9 per share, below the current price, and the aggregate rating is broadly “Hold/Neutral” with a noticeable skew towards “Sell” and “Strong Sell” recommendations. [7]
Vodafone Idea share price today: rally on AGR buzz and volume spike
Vodafone Idea’s stock continues its volatile run in 2025. On 2 December 2025, the share traded between ₹10.11 and ₹10.32, compared with a previous close around ₹9.94, translating into a gain of roughly 2–4% during the session depending on the timestamp. [8]
Market data from multiple platforms show:
- Day range: ₹10.11–₹10.32
- Recent last traded price: ~₹10.25 in morning trade, ~₹10.14–₹10.18 in subsequent updates
- 52‑week low/high: ₹6.12 / ₹11.08
- Market capitalisation: approximately ₹1.08–1.10 lakh crore
- YTD return: around 25%; one‑year return in the high‑teens percentage. [9]
The standout feature of today’s session is volume: MarketsMojo data highlight that about 23.3–23.7 crore shares traded, with value exceeding ₹238 crore, more than triple the five‑day average delivery volumes and well above typical recent sessions. [10]
That kind of turnover, along with the price move, is consistent with:
- Fresh speculative interest after new policy headlines;
- Institutional participation or short‑term positioning around the AGR narrative;
- Short‑covering after a recent two‑day decline earlier in the week. [11]
AGR relief hopes: what actually changed on 2 December?
The primary catalyst behind today’s rally is renewed optimism around potential AGR dues relief.
Supreme Court backdrop and AGR size
In October 2025, the Supreme Court allowed the government to reconsider Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues for the period up to FY2016–17, including interest and penalties, effectively permitting a re‑examination of the massive legacy bill — estimated at more than ₹830 billion (~US$9.4 billion). [12]
Subsequent reporting indicates that the Department of Telecommunications has begun a detailed review of the original AGR calculations, including possible errors and duplicated demands, and is also working on potential mechanisms to reduce interest and penalty components before presenting a final package to the Cabinet. [13]
Scindia’s comments on December 2
On 2 December 2025, Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said in media interactions that: [14]
- The government is awaiting a formal request from Vodafone Idea before proceeding with any relief,
- The recent Supreme Court order defines clear legal boundaries that the Centre cannot cross,
- Recommendations on the company’s relief proposal could be finalised within a couple of weeks, and
- A relief package could be announced by the end of 2025, subject to legal review.
Economic Times and other outlets framed this as the Centre moving closer to finalising its stance on the relief proposal, noting that Vi’s shares surged to an intraday high of ₹10.32, up about 3.8–4%. [15]
Exchange caution: BSE seeks clarification
The BSE has taken note of the sharp move and media coverage. In an announcement on the morning of December 2, the exchange disclosed that it has sought clarification from Vodafone Idea regarding the Economic Times article “Vodafone Idea shares jump 4% on anticipation of AGR relief by year-end.” The response from the company is awaited. [16]
That official query underscores an important point for investors:
As of now, there is no new formal company filing announcing a specific AGR relief package; the market is reacting to ministerial comments and media interpretations of an ongoing process.
Derivatives and technicals: bulls, bears and a crowded options market
The derivatives segment around Vodafone Idea has become notably active.
Call option frenzy at ₹13
MarketsMojo data show that on 2 December: [17]
- Call options with a ₹13 strike expiring on 30 December 2025 recorded around 3,873 contracts traded,
- These contracts generated turnover of roughly ₹22.15 crore,
- Open interest stood near 4,566 contracts, and
- The underlying stock price at the time was about ₹10.24.
This implies traders are betting on the possibility of Vodafone Idea moving significantly higher — roughly 25% above current levels — by the end of the month.
Put protection at ₹9
Just a day earlier, on 1 December, Vodafone Idea was also the most active stock in put options, particularly at the ₹9 strike for the same 30 December expiry: [18]
- Around 1,214 contracts traded,
- Turnover was about ₹1.56 crore,
- Open interest was roughly 2,809 contracts,
- The underlying stock then traded close to ₹10.12.
This pattern — bullish calls above the market and protective puts below — is typical of a stock where investors see large upside if good news materialises, but are equally conscious of downside if the story disappoints.
Technical picture: short‑term bullish, long‑term scarred
Recent technical assessments highlight that Vodafone Idea: [19]
- Trades above its 5‑, 20‑, 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages,
- Has seen its short‑term trend shift from “mildly bullish” to “bullish” on daily and weekly indicators such as MACD and KST,
- Sits well above its 52‑week low of ₹6.12 but below the 52‑week high of ₹11.08, and
- Has delivered strong 1‑month and YTD returns, but five‑ and ten‑year returns remain deeply negative, reflecting the long history of value destruction in the stock.
In other words, the momentum is currently favourable, but within a very high‑beta, historically loss‑making setup.
Fundamentals: stabilising operations, persistent losses
Beneath the daily noise, Vodafone Idea is still attempting a multi‑year turnaround.
Quarterly performance and network footprint
Coverage of the company’s Q2 FY26 (June–September 2025) numbers highlights: [20]
- Revenue grew about 2.4% year‑on‑year to roughly ₹111.9 billion,
- EBITDA (excluding leases) increased around 3.5% to about ₹23.2 billion,
- ARPU (average revenue per user) rose a healthy 8.3% to roughly ₹180,
- 4G coverage has expanded to over 84% of India’s population, and
- The company reports having completed 5G rollout in all 17 circles where it holds 5G spectrum, with plans to push 4G coverage towards 90% and deepen 5G where adoption is strongest.
Despite these operational improvements, Mint’s dataset shows that: [21]
- Vodafone Idea reported a full‑year net loss of about ₹27,383 crore in 2025,
- The most recent quarter still saw a net loss of roughly ₹5,524 crore,
- The company does not pay dividends, and standard valuation metrics such as P/E are not meaningful at present.
Debt, fundraising and government stake
The capital structure remains a key risk:
- A Reuters report notes that Vodafone Idea Telecom Infrastructure, a wholly‑owned subsidiary, recently cut its planned bond issue size from ₹50 billion to around ₹32 billion, expecting cheaper bank funding in 2026 after the Supreme Court’s AGR order. The bonds, aimed to be placed by December, carry steep yields of about 12% (two‑year) and 14% (just over three‑year). [22]
- Earlier in 2025, the board approved raising up to ₹200 billion through equity or loans to fund capex and shore up the balance sheet. [23]
- In April 2025, the government converted part of Vodafone Idea’s spectrum dues into equity, lifting its stake to 48.99%, making the Indian state the single largest shareholder. [24]
At the same time, Vi is modernising its IT and cybersecurity stack. A recent three‑year partnership renewal with Kyndryl aims to deliver a unified cyber‑resilience framework, automation‑driven IT operations and cost optimisation across backup, storage and data protection systems. [25]
All of this underlines a simple reality: Vodafone Idea’s operational metrics are improving, but the balance sheet and legacy AGR burden still dominate the investment case.
Tariff hikes and 5G monetisation: structural tailwinds for ARPU
Revenue growth for Indian telcos in 2025 is increasingly about pricing power, not subscriber additions.
Sector‑wide tariff hikes from December 2025
Industry reports suggest that Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea are preparing to raise mobile recharge prices by around 10% on average, with some plans potentially seeing increases of up to 25%, starting from December 2025 and phasing through to mid‑2026. The stated rationale: recover higher 5G‑related capex, rising network costs and push ARPU higher. [26]
For Vodafone Idea specifically, TelecomTalk has already documented one concrete step: [27]
- Vi’s popular ₹1,999 annual prepaid plan has been revised to ₹2,249,
- Validity remains 365 days, but bundled data rises to 30–40 GB depending on the circle,
- The effective daily cost jumps from about ₹5.40 to roughly ₹6.16, aligning Vi’s pricing with Airtel’s comparable ₹2,249 plan.
Regulatory cost relief: backhaul spectrum charges
On the cost side, a separate development could help all telcos, including Vi. TRAI is reportedly considering a proposal that would cut backhaul spectrum charges by up to 50%. Currently, operators pay 0.15–3.95% of AGR towards these charges, amounting to roughly ₹4,000 crore a year industry‑wide, calculated via a weighted‑average formula linked to AGR. [28]
Reducing this levy — another AGR‑linked outflow — would marginally improve Vodafone Idea’s P&L and cash flows, although it will not, on its own, solve the AGR principal and legacy interest/penalty overhang.
5G rollout and monetisation challenge
A 2025 outlook from Light Reading notes that: [29]
- 2025 is expected to finally see Vodafone Idea and BSNL fully launch 5G services at scale,
- The big challenge is monetisation: analysts estimate ARPU must rise 25–35% from 2Q FY25 levels for private telcos to earn a reasonable 15% ROCE,
- While Jio and Airtel already have large 5G subscriber bases, the entry of Vi’s 5G network could increase competition but also create more opportunities to upsell higher‑value plans.
Vodafone Idea’s own messaging, via letters to subscribers and media reports, has emphasised a three‑year investment plan with partners such as Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung, targeting thousands of new 5G‑ready sites and expansions like the recent deployments in Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram. [30]
Analyst ratings and share price forecasts
Despite the excitement around AGR relief and tariffs, sell‑side analysts remain cautious.
- Domestic broker set: Trendlyne data show that eight long‑term reports from four analysts imply an average target price of about ₹7.33, roughly 25–30% below current levels around ₹10.1–₹10.3. Recent notes include downgrades or reduced targets, even where recommendations remain “Hold”. [31]
- Global consensus: Aggregated estimates on Investing.com and TradingView indicate: [32]
- A “Neutral” consensus rating from about 21 analysts,
- 5 rating the stock Buy, 7–9 as Sell, and the rest Hold,
- An average 12‑month target around ₹8.8–₹8.9 per share,
- A wide range of outcomes: ₹2.4 at the bearish end and ₹15 at the bullish end.
- Mint’s broker mix: Mint’s stock page reports that, among 20 covering analysts, the average rating is “Hold”, with only 1 Strong Buy and 4 Buy calls versus 6 Sell and 3 Strong Sell recommendations. [33]
The message from the street is clear: today’s price already discounts a meaningful portion of the turnaround story, and any AGR decision or fundraising outcome that falls short of optimistic expectations could provoke sharp downside.
Key risks and scenarios for Vodafone Idea investors
Given the complexity of the story, many investors treat Vodafone Idea as a high‑risk, event‑driven trade rather than a conventional defensive telecom holding.
Upside scenario
The bullish thesis typically assumes some combination of:
- Material reduction in AGR dues, especially on interest and penalties, improving solvency and lowering leverage; [34]
- Successful execution of tariff hikes, pushing ARPU higher and leveraging the company’s existing subscriber base; [35]
- 5G rollout that is fast enough to retain or win back higher‑value users, supported by network and IT modernisation and fresh capex funded via bonds, bank loans and equity; [36]
- Continued government support, given the state’s near‑49% ownership and the large subscriber base dependent on Vodafone Idea’s services. [37]
If those pieces fall into place, today’s mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit share price could represent leverage to a multi‑year recovery story.
Downside and execution risk
On the other hand, history offers cautionary lessons. Economic Times coverage earlier in 2025 documented periods where Vodafone Idea’s shares fell more than 50% year‑on‑year, particularly when hopes of large AGR relief were dashed or when capital‑raising plans looked uncertain. [38]
Key downside risks include:
- AGR relief that turns out to be modest in quantum, or constrained only to a narrow slice of additional dues; [39]
- Heavy equity dilution in future fundraising, eroding per‑share value even if the company survives; [40]
- Delays or under‑performance in 5G monetisation, especially in a market where competitors Jio and Airtel already dominate high‑value segments; [41]
- Regulatory shifts, such as penalties or licensing changes, that offset the benefits from lower backhaul charges or AGR re‑calibration. [42]
How to read Vodafone Idea after today’s move
From a market‑structure standpoint, Vodafone Idea on 2 December 2025 looks like a leveraged bet on policy, pricing and execution:
- The price action and options data show traders positioning for a potentially large move — in either direction — around the year‑end AGR decision and December tariff‑hike rollout. [43]
- The fundamentals reflect genuine operational improvement in ARPU, 4G/5G coverage and IT modernisation, but also very large losses and a balance sheet that still hinges on debt markets, bank confidence and government support. [44]
- Analyst forecasts suggest that, at current levels, the stock already embeds significant optimism, with consensus targets pointing slightly below today’s price and a wide dispersion of views. [45]
For conservative investors, this may look more like a speculative turnaround story than a core portfolio holding. For risk‑tolerant traders, the combination of policy optionality, tariff‑driven earnings leverage and high volatility is exactly what makes Vodafone Idea so closely watched in 2025.
References
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