Canara Bank’s stock extended its strong run on 2 December 2025, climbing to yet another 52‑week high around ₹154 on the NSE and BSE. The share price has rallied roughly 50% over the last 12 months, far outpacing benchmark indices and cementing the bank’s position as one of the standout performers in the public‑sector banking basket. [1]
As of the latest close, Canara Bank changed hands at about ₹153.6–₹153.9, after an intraday range of roughly ₹150.6–₹154.2, with healthy traded volumes of more than 2 crore shares across exchanges. The current 52‑week band runs from a low near ₹78.6 to a fresh high slightly above ₹153–154, implying the stock has nearly doubled from its low over the past year. [2]
Behind this performance is a mix of strong earnings, improving asset quality, and a market‑wide re‑rating of PSU banks. At the same time, valuations, regulatory overhangs and slowing net interest income (NII) are starting to feature prominently in analyst commentary and quantitative models.
Canara Bank share price on 2 December 2025: what moved the stock
On 2 December 2025, Canara Bank was among the actively traded PSU bank names, helped by:
- Fresh 52‑week high: Intraday highs around ₹153.8–₹154.2 put the stock marginally above previous records set in late November and 1 December, when it first crossed the ₹153 mark. [3]
- Strong near‑term returns: Business Standard’s return table shows gains of about 12% in one month, ~45% in three months, and ~51% over one year, versus low‑ to mid‑single‑digit returns for Sensex/Nifty over the same periods. [4]
- Momentum recognition: Market analytics platforms such as MarketsMojo and Smart‑Investing flag Canara Bank as a PSU bank with bullish price momentum and a one‑year return of roughly 49–51%, significantly ahead of the Sensex’s ~6% during the period. [5]
Broader banking sentiment has stayed constructive. HDFC Sky, for example, highlighted earlier in the season how banking stocks, including Canara Bank, were benefiting from the RBI’s supportive stance on lending norms and a positive macro backdrop for credit growth. [6]
Earnings backdrop: Q2 FY26 results underpin the rally
The current leg of the rally can be traced back to the Q2 FY26 results (quarter ended September 2025), released at the end of October.
Profit growth with better asset quality
- Standalone net profit rose about 18.7–19% year‑on‑year to ~₹4,774 crore, supported by stronger operating profit and lower credit costs. [7]
- On a consolidated basis, HDFC Sky pegs the quarterly profit at ₹4,865.8 crore, up from about ₹4,100 crore a year earlier, implying a similar ~18–19% growth rate. [8]
- Operating profit grew roughly 12% YoY to about ₹8,588 crore, as per Economic Times’ coverage. [9]
The standout story, however, is asset quality:
- Gross NPAs (GNPA) fell sharply to 2.35%, from about 3.7% a year ago.
- Net NPAs (NNPA) dropped to 0.54%, down from nearly 1.0% in the prior year. [10]
- Credit costs improved to around 0.68%, and the provision coverage ratio climbed to approximately 93.6%, signaling a strong buffer against stressed assets. [11]
Return ratios have picked up accordingly:
- Return on Assets (ROA) is now around 1.10–1.12%, which is high by PSU‑bank standards. [12]
- Capital adequacy (Basel III) stands at a comfortable ~16.3%. [13]
Growth in deposits and advances
The Q2 numbers also reflect steady business growth:
- Global business (deposits + advances) grew about 13.6% YoY to roughly ₹26.8 lakh crore.
- Deposits increased by about 13.4%, and global advances by ~13.7%, indicating broad‑based loan growth across retail, corporate and MSME segments. [14]
Screener’s consolidated data shows that over the last five years, Canara Bank’s revenue has grown around 20% annually, while profits have compounded at roughly 61%, with ROE improving to ~18% in the latest year. [15]
The one big negative: NII pressure
Despite higher profits, net interest income (NII) actually declined:
- Q2 FY26 NII slipped by roughly 2% YoY, as loan yields and interest margins came under pressure and part of the interest stream has shifted into “other income” because of classification changes. [16]
Brokerage reports summarised by Motilal Oswal and Emkay have repeatedly noted that earnings beats are being driven by treasury gains, recoveries and other income, while core NIMs (net interest margins) face headwinds from deposit repricing and competition for low‑cost funds. [17]
Valuation snapshot: Cheap PSU bank or fully priced compounder?
Valuing Canara Bank is where opinions start to diverge.
Relative valuation: still inexpensive versus peers
An Economic Times screen of “undervalued midcaps” put Canara Bank’s trailing P/E at about 7.9x, against an industry average near 9.6x for comparable banks. [18]
Smart‑Investing’s fundamental dashboard (as of 1 December 2025) shows: [19]
- P/E (TTM): ~7.2x
- P/B: ~1.29x
- Price‑to‑Sales: ~1.08x
For a PSU lender with:
- 5‑year profit CAGR ~61%,
- 3‑year ROE ~17%, and
- membership in key indices like Nifty Bank, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Next 50, [20]
those multiples still screen as modest compared with high‑quality private‑sector banks and several NBFCs.
Intrinsic value models: signs of overvaluation
On the other hand, Smart‑Investing’s intrinsic value model estimates a “fair value” of about ₹119.8 per share, based on a blend of EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales and Price‑to‑Sales approaches. At the current market price, the stock is described as trading at roughly a 25% premium to this median intrinsic value. [21]
The site summarises Canara Bank’s situation as:
- Fundamentals: strong, with improving NPAs and decent earnings momentum.
- Valuation: stretched versus its own historical intrinsic value bands, even if still inexpensive relative to the PSU‑bank pack. [22]
Screener also flags a few structural risk markers: a low interest‑coverage ratio, large contingent liabilities of over ₹4 lakh crore, and a substantial share of “other income” (~₹33,500 crore TTM) in overall earnings, all of which require careful monitoring by investors. [23]
Analyst targets and AI models: how much upside is left?
Sell‑side consensus
Data compiled by Investing.com for NSE: CNBK shows a consensus 12‑month target around ₹147, with a target range from ₹110 to ₹171 based on nearly 20 analyst estimates. The overall consensus rating sits in the “Buy” zone, with most recommendations positive but a few “Sell” calls tempering the picture. [24]
At roughly ₹153–154 today, the stock is trading slightly above that consensus target, implying that a portion of the expected upside has already been realised.
Trendlyne’s compilation of domestic brokerage reports suggests a somewhat lower average target in the ₹125–₹130 band, implying mid‑teens downside from current levels, although many of these reports were written when the stock price was materially lower. [25]
Recent broker views include:
- InCred Equities (Oct 31, 2025): “Accumulate” rating with a target of ₹147, issued soon after Q2 results. [26]
- InCred Equities (Diwali “Samvat 2082” picks): Suggested buying Canara Bank in the ₹120–130 zone with a target price of ₹156, implying ~25% upside from that buy range; the stock is now already near that target band. [27]
Long‑term thematic analysis
A detailed fundamental piece on Investing.com India earlier this year outlined a share‑price path from ₹147 (2025) to around ₹367 by 2030, assuming sustained profit growth, healthy ROE and stable asset quality. The article emphasised: [28]
- Strengths: rising ROE, strong profit growth and comfortable capital adequacy (~16–16.3%).
- Limitations: historically low ROA (~0.8%), weak CASA growth and a relatively high cost‑to‑income ratio in recent years.
These are scenario‑based targets, not guarantees, but they show how some fundamental analysts see room for continued compounding if current trends hold.
AI‑driven forecasts and quant signals
On the purely quantitative side, forecasting site WalletInvestor, which uses technical and statistical models, currently projects: [29]
- 1‑year target: around ₹158, implying roughly 5% upside from a base price near ₹150.
- 5‑year (2030) projection: about ₹202 per share, pointing to a cumulative gain of around 30–35% from recent levels.
- The model describes Canara Bank’s recent trend as “bullish” within the broader financial‑services sector, while also acknowledging that these are probabilistic forecasts derived from historical prices.
Importantly, Smart‑Investing’s dashboard, while positive on fundamentals, explicitly concludes that the stock is not a “value buy” at today’s price given its premium to intrinsic value — a reminder that “good company” and “good stock at this price” are separate questions. [30]
Technical picture: strong momentum with relatively low volatility
Momentum indicators are broadly aligned with the fundamental story:
- Over one year, Canara Bank has delivered ~51% price returns, compared with ~6–7% for the Sensex and Nifty. [31]
- Over three years, Screener’s data shows stock‑price CAGR near 33–47%, mirroring a sharp turnaround in profitability and ROE. [32]
- WalletInvestor estimates a beta of about 0.58, suggesting the stock has been less volatile than the broader market, despite outsized returns. [33]
MarketsMojo notes that the 52‑week high of around ₹153.8 is supported by: [34]
- structurally lower GNPA (~2.35%),
- improving NNPA (~0.54%), and
- a one‑year stock return above 50%, far ahead of the Sensex’s mid‑single‑digit increase.
Short‑term traders will also note that the stock now trades well above its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, indicating a clear uptrend — but also raising the probability of intermittent profit‑booking as targets set earlier in the year are met or exceeded. [35]
Corporate developments: AMC IPO, AT1 bonds and regulatory fine
Several recent corporate and regulatory events are on the radar:
- Canara Robeco AMC IPO:
- The IPO of Canara Robeco Asset Management Company, a joint venture where Canara Bank is a key shareholder, has received SEBI approval for an updated draft red herring prospectus.
- The issue is structured as an offer for sale (OFS), meaning Canara Bank and its JV partner ORIX will sell part of their stake rather than raise fresh capital at the AMC level. [36]
- News of the approval coincided with a >2% intraday jump in Canara Bank’s share price in late November, as markets priced in potential value unlocking from the AMC business. [37]
- AT1 bonds call option:
- The bank has announced its intent to exercise call options on two Basel III‑compliant Additional Tier‑1 (AT1) bond issues totalling ₹1,755 crore, a relatively modest sum versus its balance sheet but relevant for capital‑structure planning. [38]
- RBI penalty:
- In late November, the RBI imposed a small penalty of about ₹4.36 lakh on the bank after an inspection of one of its currency chests found issues such as cash shortages and handling of mutilated notes. [39]
- While financially immaterial, such actions highlight the importance of operational controls and compliance for large PSU lenders.
- Management and governance:
- Recent exchange filings show changes in senior management and director positions, while Screener confirms that promoter (Government of India) holding stands near 62.9%, with FII stakes rising to almost 11.9% and no promoter pledging — a positive from a governance standpoint. [40]
Key risks and watch‑points for Canara Bank stock
Even with the strong stock performance, several risks and overhangs remain in focus:
- Margin and NII pressure
- The decline in NII despite higher profits points to margin compression. If funding costs keep rising faster than lending yields, or if high‑yield segments slow, earnings growth could become more dependent on volatile “other income” and recoveries. [41]
- Contingent liabilities and leverage
- Screener’s data shows contingent liabilities of over ₹4 lakh crore, and a low interest‑coverage ratio — not unusual for large banks, but a reminder that systemic or sector‑specific stress could still hurt the balance sheet. [42]
- CASA and cost‑to‑income dynamics
- The Investing.com India analysis highlights slower CASA growth and a cost‑to‑income ratio above 47% as structural challenges. If low‑cost deposits fail to keep pace, the bank may need to rely more on higher‑cost funding to sustain growth. [43]
- Macro and regulatory environment
- PSU banks remain sensitive to interest‑rate cycles, government policy, and regulatory changes. Any shift in RBI stance on provisioning norms, capital requirements or sectoral lending can quickly alter the sector’s risk‑reward profile.
- Valuation risk after a sharp rally
- With the stock now trading above some analyst targets and around 25% above one prominent intrinsic‑value estimate, forward returns could be more modest unless earnings growth and ROE continue to positively surprise. [44]
Outlook: what investors will be watching next
Going forward, markets are likely to focus on a few key themes:
- Sustainability of 1%+ ROA and high‑teens ROE, which underpin the “cheap‑but‑quality PSU bank” narrative. [45]
- NII and margin trajectory in an environment where deposit rates are competitive and liquidity is tighter than in the immediate post‑pandemic phase.
- Asset‑quality resilience, especially in SME and retail unsecured segments, if the domestic or global macro backdrop softens.
- Progress on the Canara Robeco AMC IPO, and whether the market assigns a higher standalone valuation to the AMC business that can translate into further value unlocking for Canara Bank’s shareholders. [46]
- Government stake‑sale or capital‑raising plans, which can influence both free‑float liquidity and overhang perceptions for PSU bank investors.
For now, the stock reflects a rare combination of strong recent performance, improving fundamentals and still‑moderate headline valuation multiples, but with rapidly narrowing room for error as it hovers near multiple broker and model‑driven targets.
References
1. www.business-standard.com, 2. www.business-standard.com, 3. www.business-standard.com, 4. www.business-standard.com, 5. www.marketsmojo.com, 6. hdfcsky.com, 7. m.economictimes.com, 8. hdfcsky.com, 9. m.economictimes.com, 10. m.economictimes.com, 11. m.economictimes.com, 12. m.economictimes.com, 13. hdfcsky.com, 14. m.economictimes.com, 15. www.screener.in, 16. m.economictimes.com, 17. trendlyne.com, 18. m.economictimes.com, 19. www.smart-investing.in, 20. www.screener.in, 21. www.smart-investing.in, 22. www.smart-investing.in, 23. www.screener.in, 24. www.investing.com, 25. trendlyne.com, 26. www.business-standard.com, 27. m.economictimes.com, 28. in.investing.com, 29. walletinvestor.com, 30. www.smart-investing.in, 31. www.business-standard.com, 32. www.screener.in, 33. walletinvestor.com, 34. www.marketsmojo.com, 35. walletinvestor.com, 36. hdfcsky.com, 37. upstox.com, 38. scanx.trade, 39. www.screener.in, 40. www.screener.in, 41. m.economictimes.com, 42. www.screener.in, 43. in.investing.com, 44. www.smart-investing.in, 45. m.economictimes.com, 46. hdfcsky.com


