NatWest Group Plc (LON: NWG) Stock on 2 December 2025: Stress Test Pass, Buybacks and 2026 Price Targets

NatWest Group Plc shares are trading close to multi‑year highs as fresh Bank of England stress‑test results, continued buybacks and new fintech investments frame the outlook for 2026. For investors following UK banks, NatWest has gone from post‑crisis recovery story to one of the most profitable, capital‑rich income stocks on the FTSE 100. ^[1]

NatWest share price today: near the top of the 52‑week range

On 2 December 2025, NatWest’s London‑listed shares (LON: NWG) are trading around 633p, with intraday moves between roughly 627p and 635p. The stock’s 52‑week range sits near 369p–636p, putting today’s price right at the top end. Over the past year, the shares have delivered a one‑year total return in the high‑50% range, vastly outpacing the wider FTSE 100. ^[2]

The US‑listed ADR (NYSE: NWG) is changing hands at about $16.7, within a whisker of its 52‑week high of $16.82, after rallying roughly 60% over 12 months. ^[3]

Recent trading data show the London line setting a series of new 52‑week highs in late November, with MarketWatch noting fresh records around £6.32 on 27 November and strong daily gains versus the broader index. ^[4]

Q3 2025 recap: profits at post‑crisis highs

NatWest’s current share price is anchored in a very strong set of Q3 2025 results, published on 24 October:

Total income for the quarter was around £4.3 billion, up 8.2% versus Q2 and about 15.7% year‑on‑year. ^[5]
Income excluding notable items was roughly £4.17 billion, up 3.9% quarter‑on‑quarter as deposit margins improved and the bank benefited from an extra day in the period. ^[6]
Operating profit before tax came in near £2.2 billion, beating analyst expectations of roughly £1.8 billion and marking the highest quarterly profit since the 2008 bailout. ^[7]
Attributable profit to shareholders was about £1.6–1.7 billion, up more than 30% year‑on‑year. ^[8]
Return on tangible equity (RoTE) hit 22.3% in Q3, up from around 17–18% earlier in the year and comfortably above most peers. ^[9]
Net interest margin (NIM) improved by 9 basis points in the quarter to around 2.37%, driven by deposit margin expansion and higher structural hedge income. ^[10]

On the risk side, Q3 saw:

A net impairment charge of £153 million, equivalent to roughly 15bps of gross customer loans, lower than Q2 as Stage 3 charges moderated. ^[11]
Expected credit loss (ECL) provisions stable at about £3.7 billion, with an ECL coverage ratio of 0.87%, reinforcing the picture of a diversified, prime loan book rather than a distressed balance sheet. ^[12]

Capital remains robust. NatWest’s CET1 ratio stood at 14.2% in Q3, above the top end of management’s target range, even after ordinary dividends and buybacks. Risk‑weighted asset (RWA) management actions of £2.2 billion created further room for growth and distributions. ^[13]

Management responded by upgrading 2025 guidance, now expecting:

Income excluding notable items of around £16.3 billion.
Full‑year RoTE of more than 18%, up from prior guidance of roughly 16.5%. ^[14]

Consensus data compiled by the company after Q3 similarly show robust expectations for 2025–2026 income and capital metrics. ^[15]

2025 Bank of England stress test: capital strength confirmed

The main new development today (2 December 2025) is the release of the Bank of England’s 2025 stress‑test results and NatWest’s own disclosure on how it fared.

In its RNS on the stress test, NatWest reported that under the BoE’s severe but plausible scenario:

The Group’s low‑point CET1 ratio would fall to 11.1%, from an actual 13.6% at December 2024.
The low‑point Tier 1 leverage ratio would be 4.7%, versus 5.0% at December 2024.
Both figures remain comfortably above the BoE’s stress minimum requirements, meaning no strategic management actions (such as cutting dividends or lending) would be required in the scenario. ^[16]

At the system level, the BoE confirmed that all seven major UK lenders, including NatWest, passed the test and that UK banks would retain about £60 billion of capital headroom above regulatory buffers even after a hypothetical deep recession, house‑price slump and spike in interest rates. ^[17]

Crucially for bank valuations, the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee has now reduced the benchmark Tier 1 capital requirement from 14% to 13%, the first notable easing of post‑crisis capital rules. ^[18]

This combination of:

Strong bank‑specific stress‑test outcomes, and
A small but symbolically important regulatory easing

is positive for NatWest’s dividend and buyback capacity, and it helps explain why UK bank shares, including NWG, are trading at post‑2008 highs. ^[19]

Dividends, yield and buybacks: shareholder returns in focus

NatWest is leaning heavily on capital returns to reward shareholders.

Ordinary dividends

Recent dividend history and 2025 actions include:

A final 2024 dividend of 15.5p per share, with an ex‑date of 13 March 2025 and payment on 28 April 2025. ^[20]
A 2025 interim dividend of 9.5p per share, declared alongside H1 results and paid on 12 September 2025. ^[21]

Data from Fidelity and other dividend trackers show total dividends paid in 2025 of roughly 25p per share, versus 17.5p in 2024, implying strong growth in cash returns. ^[22]

At today’s share price around 633p, various data providers put NatWest’s yield at:

c. 4% on a trailing basis, and
Around 3% on a forward basis, assuming similar payouts. ^[23]

Management explicitly targets an ordinary dividend payout of roughly 50% of attributable profit, a figure echoed by both company materials and external analysts. ^[24]

Ongoing share buybacks

Dividends are only half the story. NatWest is also running substantial buyback programmes:

In July 2025, the bank announced a £750 million share buyback alongside its H1 results. ^[25]
On 27 November 2025, NatWest disclosed that it repurchased 34,122 ordinary shares at prices between 618.8p and 621.2p, with a volume‑weighted average price of 619.64p, and intends to cancel them. ^[26]

After this transaction, filings show over 230 million shares held in treasury and just over 8.0 billion shares in issue, highlighting the cumulative scale of repurchases. ^[27]

Some fundamental research pieces estimate NatWest’s total shareholder yield (dividends plus buybacks) at above 10%, reflecting the combination of high profitability, surplus capital and a valuation that still sits below many global peers. ^[28]

Strategic moves: fintech investment and portfolio reshaping

Alongside capital returns, NatWest continues to reshape its business mix.

Minority stake in fintech lender Bourn

Fresh news ahead of today’s session is that NatWest is taking a minority stake in Bourn, a London‑based fintech that embeds secured working‑capital finance into small‑business banking platforms:

Sky News and other outlets report that Bourn was founded in 2024 to give SMEs faster access to secured funding to manage cash‑flow volatility.
NatWest is acquiring a minority shareholding, part of its strategy to extend embedded finance and digital lending to smaller firms. ^[29]

This follows earlier moves such as the acquisition of parts of Sainsbury’s Bank’s retail operations and a Metro Bank mortgage portfolio, which boosted loan growth but also brought integration and restructuring costs into Q3 numbers. ^[30]

Potential sale of Cushon

On the other side of the balance sheet, Reuters reported on 28 November that NatWest is in exclusive talks to sell its 85% stake in workplace pension provider Cushon to Willis Towers Watson. ^[31]

Cushon was acquired only two years ago, so a sale would underline NatWest’s willingness to recycle capital out of non‑core assets while focusing on core UK retail, SME and commercial banking and wealth. The potential exit also fits with management’s messaging about a simpler group structure.

A fully private NatWest: the government finally exits

Another key 2025 milestone is structural, not operational: the UK government is no longer a shareholder.

On 30 May 2025, NatWest confirmed it had returned to full private ownership, with His Majesty’s Treasury selling its remaining stake via the long‑running trading plan. ^[32]

At its peak, the state owned 84.4% of the bank (then RBS) after £45 billion of crisis‑era capital injections. ^[33]
Government statements indicate that total proceeds from NatWest share disposals reached about £24.8 billion, or roughly £35 billion including dividends and fees—still below the original bailout cost, but judged acceptable given the avoided systemic damage. ^[34]

From an equity‑story perspective, the end of state ownership removes a persistent “overhang” risk and allows NatWest to position itself as a normal, fully private UK high‑street and commercial bank for the first time in 17 years.

Analyst ratings and 2026 price targets

Sell‑side consensus: modest upside from here

On the traditional analyst side:

MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating based on 6 recent analyst opinions: 4 buys, 2 holds.
The average 12‑month price target is about 649p, with a range of 550p–725p. From a current price around 628–633p, that implies a modest upside of roughly 3%–4% before dividends. ^[35]

Other research notes highlight individual target moves:

A MarketBeat alert from late November notes that JPMorgan raised its NatWest target from 610p to 700p with an “overweight” stance, while RBC increased its target from 650p to 725p with a “sector perform” rating. ^[36]

On TradingView, which aggregates a broader analyst universe:

The 1‑year price target is shown as 668.65p, based on analyst models with a range from 550p to 765p.
The overall analyst rating is “Buy”, derived from 19 ratings issued in the past three months. ^[37]

In other words, the fundamental analyst community is broadly positive but not euphoric: after a ~60% share‑price run‑up and record earnings, most models suggest low single‑digit percentage upside plus the dividend rather than a fresh multi‑bagger from here.

Quant and technical forecasts

Various quantitative or technical‑analysis sites offer more aggressive scenarios:

WalletInvestor’s algorithm, for example, uses purely technical inputs to project NWG rising from around 628.6p on 1 December 2025 to roughly 1,019p by late 2030, a theoretical five‑year gain of about 62%. ^[38]

Such models can be useful to gauge momentum and trend assumptions, but they are not a substitute for fundamental analysis and often ignore macro, regulatory or conduct‑risk shocks.

Income and dividend‑growth angle

On the income side, several research houses flag NatWest as a high‑quality dividend name:

Zacks‑linked screens put NWG among “best income stocks” in mid‑November, citing a strong dividend track record and upward earnings revisions. ^[39]
Dividend data providers show rapid dividend growth over the past five years and a forward yield in the low‑single‑digits on today’s price, which rises into mid‑single‑digits once buybacks are included. ^[40]

The consensus picture for 2026 therefore looks roughly like:

Healthy profitability (RoTE staying well into the teens, albeit likely below the 2025 spike).
Solid but not spectacular capital appreciation potential from current levels.
A meaningful income stream, with dividends supported by robust capital ratios and regulatory comfort after the latest stress tests.

Macro backdrop: rates, growth and UK banking conditions

NatWest’s fortunes are tightly tied to the UK macro environment:

The Bank of England’s Bank Rate is currently 4.0%, after being cut from 4.25% in August 2025 and then held in a narrow 5–4 vote at the November meeting. ^[41]
UK CPI inflation has cooled to the mid‑3% range year‑on‑year, still above the BoE’s 2% target but moving in the right direction. TS2 Tech+1
Nationwide data show UK house prices rising 0.3% month‑on‑month in November and annual growth slowing to around 1.8%, suggesting a muted but stabilising housing market. ^[42]

Higher‑for‑longer rates have so far been good for NatWest’s margins, as seen in the Q3 NIM expansion. But as the BoE edges towards rate cuts in 2026, analysts expect:

Pressure on net interest income as deposit pricing re‑normalises; and
Slower loan‑growth dynamics, particularly in mortgages and consumer credit. TS2 Tech+2Reuters+2

The BoE’s Financial Stability Report also flags broader risks—from frothy AI‑related valuations to leveraged hedge‑fund activity in gilt markets—that could generate volatility even if banks remain well capitalised. ^[43]

Key risks to the NatWest investment case

While the numbers look strong, several risks could shape NWG’s path from here:

Margin compression and earnings normalisation
If the BoE cuts faster than expected, NatWest’s NIM could drift down from the current 2.37%, challenging the bank’s ability to keep RoTE above its >18% target. ^[44]
UK economic and credit risk
The Q3 impairment charge of £153 million remains benign, but a deeper slowdown or a spike in unemployment could push impairments higher, especially in commercial real estate or SME portfolios. ^[45]
Regulatory and political risk
- Any reversal of today’s capital‑requirement easing would reduce distribution flexibility. ^[46]
- UK politics remains sensitive to bank profits, with periodic debates about windfall taxes or sector‑specific levies.
Operational, IT and conduct risk
Recent commentary has highlighted NatWest’s exposure to IT outages, cyber attacks and conduct issues, from the infamous “debanking” controversy to earlier AML fines. TS2 Tech+1
Single‑market concentration
NatWest is largely a UK‑focused bank; that concentration magnifies its sensitivity to any domestic shock. Some independent analyses explicitly describe the outlook as “mixed”: excellent profitability and shareholder returns on the one hand, but growth capped by a sluggish UK economy on the other. ^[47]

Bottom line: what 2 December 2025 means for NatWest shareholders

As of 2 December 2025, NatWest Group sits in arguably its strongest position since before the financial crisis:

Earnings and profitability are running at record levels, with RoTE above 20% in Q3 and upgraded guidance for 2025. ^[48]
The bank has passed the BoE’s 2025 stress test with headroom to spare, just as the regulator starts to trim capital requirements for the sector. ^[49]
The UK government has fully exited its stake, removing an overhang that weighed on the stock for more than a decade. ^[50]
Shareholders are enjoying rising ordinary dividends, active buybacks and a total shareholder yield that some analysts estimate in double‑digits. ^[51]

Against that, the valuation has re‑rated sharply. With the shares near 52‑week and post‑2008 highs, the median 12‑month analyst price target suggests only modest upside from here—low‑single‑digit capital appreciation plus a 3–4% dividend yield if current forecasts hold. ^[52]

For investors, NatWest in late 2025 looks less like a distressed turnaround and more like a highly profitable, income‑oriented UK bank where returns will hinge on:

How smoothly the UK rate‑cut cycle unfolds,
Whether asset quality stays benign as growth stays weak, and
Management’s ability to sustain high returns and disciplined capital returns without stumbling on conduct or operational risks.

As always, all of the above is information, not investment advice. Prices, forecasts and regulatory settings can change quickly—especially in a sector as tightly bound to macroeconomics and policy as big‑cap UK banking.