Costco (COST) Stock on December 2, 2025: Tariff Lawsuit, Membership Engine and 2026 Price Targets

Updated December 2, 2025

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is starting December with more headlines than usual. The warehouse-club giant is suing the U.S. government over Trump-era tariffs, fine‑tuning its powerful membership model and preparing for a key earnings report — all while its richly valued stock lags the market.

Here’s a comprehensive roundup of the latest Costco stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 2, 2025, and what it could mean for investors ahead of 2026.

Costco stock today: price, performance and valuation

By mid-day on December 2, 2025, Costco stock is trading around $906 per share, down modestly on the session.

Key snapshot:

• Price: ~$906
• 52‑week range: roughly $872 – $1,078, putting the stock about 16% below its 1‑year high and only ~4% above its low. ^[1]
• Market cap: about $404 billion
• Trailing P/E ratio: ~50x earnings, with a PEG ratio above 5 and beta just under 1, implying a premium valuation and slightly less volatility than the broader market. ^[2]

Over the last 12 months, Costco shares are down around 6–7%, even as many consumer‑staples peers have eked out small gains. ^[3] Several outlets have noted that 2025 is shaping up as a rare off year for a stock that normally beats the market — a key reason so many current analyses are focused on valuation and timing rather than business quality. ^[4]

From a valuation perspective:

• Forward 12‑month P/E: about 44x, well above an industry average around 30x, according to Zacks/Nasdaq data. ^[5]
• Zacks assigns Costco a Value Score of “D” and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a great business but a fully priced stock. ^[6]

That tension — elite fundamentals vs. premium price — is at the center of almost every “Should you buy Costco before 2026?” piece published today. ^[7]

Headline story: Costco sues over Trump tariffs

The biggest December 2 story for COST isn’t about sales or earnings — it’s about tariffs and the Supreme Court.

Costco has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the Trump administration, seeking to preserve its ability to claim refunds on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) if the Supreme Court ultimately rules those tariffs unlawful. ^[8]

What we know:

• The case was filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade in late November.
• Costco says Customs denied its request for more time to finalize tariff calculations, raising the risk that some duties could be “liquidated” (finalized) without refund rights even if the tariffs are struck down. ^[9]
• Several lower courts have already found Trump’s IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional on the grounds that Congress, not the president, controls taxation and duties. The Federal Circuit has affirmed that view, and the Supreme Court has heard arguments but not yet ruled. ^[10]
• The government has warned that it could face as much as $1 trillion in tariff liabilities if the Court rules against the tariffs. ^[11]

Costco has not disclosed how much it has paid under these tariffs, but its scale is enormous: it generated $275.2 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. ^[12] Management has previously said roughly one‑third of U.S. sales come from imported goods, with less than half of that imported volume tied to China, Mexico and Canada. ^[13]

To manage tariff pressure, Costco has:

• Reduced its supplier base,
• Increased local sourcing, and
• Leaned more heavily on its high‑margin Kirkland Signature private‑label brand. ^[14]

Why the tariff lawsuit matters for Costco stock

For investors, this is mostly a binary, long‑tail legal catalyst:

• If the tariffs are ultimately struck down and Costco’s legal strategy succeeds, the company could see a one‑time cash refund and some ongoing margin relief on affected imports.
• If the Court upholds the tariffs, Costco’s current cost structure and pricing already assume those duties continue — so the main risk is lost optional upside rather than a sudden new cost.

In the near term, the bigger impact is headline risk and uncertainty. Tariff politics are now baked into the Costco story, and investors will be listening carefully on upcoming calls for any color on the potential size and timing of refunds.

Membership engine: still powerful, but with nuanced trends

Costco’s long‑term investment case rests on its membership model. Recent data shows that engine is still running hot — with a few metrics worth watching.

Q4 2025: membership fees surge

In its fiscal Q4 2025 (quarter ended August 31), Costco reported: ^[15]

• Membership fee income up 14% year over year to roughly $1.7 billion for the quarter.
• Full‑year membership fees of about $5.3 billion, up from $4.8 billion in fiscal 2024.
• Membership growth driven by:
  • A larger membership base,
  • More customers upgrading to Executive membership, and
  • The September 2024 fee increase in the U.S. and Canada (+$5 for Gold Star, +$10 for Executive).

Zacks estimates that fee hikes accounted for just under half of the Q4 membership fee growth; even excluding price increases and FX, membership income still grew about 7%, underscoring strong underlying demand. ^[16]

Paid memberships reached roughly 81 million, up 6.3% year over year. Executive members grew 9.3% to about 38.7 million, representing nearly 48% of paid members and over 74% of global sales — a key proof point that Costco continues to deepen engagement with its most valuable shoppers. ^[17]

Renewal rates: extremely high, but dipping slightly

Despite those gains, renewal metrics show a subtle shift:

• Worldwide renewal rate slipped from about 90.2% to 89.8%.
• U.S. and Canada renewal declined around 40 basis points to roughly 92.3%. ^[18]

Management ties this modest downtick mainly to more online sign‑ups — including a large Groupon campaign — where early churn tends to be higher. To counter it, Costco is:

• Pushing auto‑renew,
• Using more targeted digital communication, and
• Offering new perks, such as extended warehouse hours and a $10 monthly Instacart credit for Executive members. ^[19]

Younger shoppers now account for roughly half of new sign‑ups, so a key 2026 focus will be proving that these digitally native members are just as sticky as prior cohorts. ^[20]

Membership outlook for 2026

Zacks expects membership fees to grow about 9.1% in fiscal 2026, after rising approximately 10.3% in fiscal 2025. ^[21] Because membership fees are high‑margin and recurring, even high‑single‑digit growth here can drive disproportionately strong EPS growth relative to sales — one of the main reasons analysts are comfortable with Costco’s premium multiple.

Sales momentum and digital growth heading into the holidays

Beyond the headline lawsuit, Costco is entering the crucial holiday period with solid top‑line momentum.

Fiscal 2025 results: steady mid‑single‑digit comps

For the full 2025 fiscal year, Costco reported: ^[22]

• Net sales: up 8.1% to $269.9 billion.
• Total revenue (including membership fees): about $275.2 billion.
• Net income:$8.1 billion, up roughly 10% from the prior year.
• Diluted EPS:$18.21, compared with $16.56 in fiscal 2024.

Comparable‑store sales for the year rose:

• 5.9% total company, and about 7.6% when excluding gas price and FX effects.
• E‑commerce comps grew in the mid‑teens on both a quarterly and full‑year basis. ^[23]

Costco ended the year with 914 warehouses worldwide. ^[24] By the time of its October 2025 sales release, that count had climbed to 918 — showing continued, measured expansion across the U.S., Canada and international markets. ^[25]

October 2025 sales: strong comps and digital acceleration

In its October 2025 sales update (four weeks ended November 2): ^[26]

• Net sales rose 8.6% to $21.75 billion.
• Comparable sales:
  • U.S.: +6.6%,
  • Canada: +6.3%,
  • Other International: +7.2%,
  • Total company: +6.6%.
• Digitally enabled comps jumped 16–22%, depending on the time frame.

Separate commentary from Zacks notes that digitally enabled sales exceeded $27 billion in fiscal 2025, underlining that Costco’s once‑nascent online channel has now reached meaningful scale. ^[27]

Consumer‑facing coverage also highlights continued demand drivers such as Costco’s food court, which remains a major traffic magnet — including in markets like Japan, where menu updates and localized promotions are getting buzz. ^[28]

Analyst ratings, price targets and Costco stock forecasts for 2026

Wall Street’s view of Costco on December 2, 2025 is remarkably consistent: great business, expensive stock.

Consensus ratings: “Buy” overall, “Hold” on valuation

Across multiple platforms:

• StockAnalysis.com shows an average rating of “Buy” from around 25–26 analysts, with no “Sell” or “Strong Sell” ratings. ^[29]
• MarketBeat aggregates a “Moderate Buy” consensus with roughly 18 Buy vs. 13 Hold ratings. ^[30]
• TipRanks reports an average 12‑month price target of about $1,092, based on 24 Wall Street analysts, implying roughly 19–20% upside from recent prices. ^[31]
• Zacks maintains a Rank #3 (Hold) on COST, largely due to valuation rather than operational concerns. ^[32]

Price targets: mid‑teens upside, wide range

Different aggregators give slightly different numbers, but they all cluster in the same ballpark:

• StockAnalysis: average target around $1,069, with a range of roughly $907 – $1,225, implying mid‑teens upside from today’s price. ^[33]
• MarketBeat: average target near $1,028, suggesting ~13% upside versus recent trading levels. ^[34]
• TipRanks: average $1,091.61, high $1,218, low $907, with estimated upside close to 19.5%. ^[35]

Notably, several well‑known firms have trimmed (but not slashed) their targets over the last few months:

• JPMorgan cut its target from $1,050 to $1,025 while maintaining an Overweight rating. ^[36]
• Oppenheimer reduced its target from $1,130 to $1,050, still rating Costco Outperform. ^[37]
• Mizuho, Evercore ISI, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and others have fine‑tuned targets throughout 2025, but most still sit comfortably above today’s share price. ^[38]

Fresh this week, Telsey Advisory Group reiterated its Outperform rating and $1,100 target, while Gordon Haskett lowered its own target from $1,150 to $1,100 but kept a Buy stance — still implying over 20% upside from current levels. ^[39]

Earnings and growth forecasts

Analyst models, as compiled by StockAnalysis, Zacks and Nasdaq, generally point to: ^[40]

• Revenue growth of roughly 10% this fiscal year, followed by 7–8% in FY 2026.
• EPS growth of around 12–13% this year and ~10% next year, taking EPS from $18.21 (FY 2025 actual) toward the low‑ to mid‑$20s by FY 2027.
• Forward P/E settling into the low‑40s on those projections, still a sizable premium to peers.

Put simply, Wall Street expects Costco to keep doing what it has done for decades: mid‑single‑digit comp sales growth, high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit EPS growth, low credit risk and high cash generation.

The open question is whether paying ~50x earnings for that profile leaves enough room for strong stock returns, especially if interest rates stay elevated or growth decelerates.

Institutional investor moves: active but supportive

Today’s filings and alerts show steady institutional interest in Costco stock.

On December 2:

• Westerkirk Capital Inc. disclosed a new position of 6,197 shares, worth roughly $6.1 million, making COST about 0.8% of its portfolio and its 27th‑largest position. ^[41]
• M&T Bank Corp reported selling 3,102 Costco shares in Q2, trimming its stake by about 1.5% to 203,946 shares — still a sizable holding and its 28th‑largest position. ^[42]

MarketBeat calculates that approximately 68–69% of Costco’s float is owned by institutions, with Vanguard alone controlling more than 43 million shares. ^[43]

These moves suggest normal portfolio rebalancing rather than a dramatic shift in institutional sentiment. Some funds are taking profits after years of outperformance; others are initiating or adding positions after the recent pullback.

What commentators are saying today about Costco stock

A wave of December 1–2 articles are circling around the same central debate:

If Costco is such a superb business, why is the stock underperforming — and is that a buying opportunity or a warning sign?

Recent themes across outlets like The Motley Fool, MarketBeat and Finviz/Yahoo Finance include: ^[44]

• “Rare off year” performance: Costco is on track for one of its worst relative years vs. the S&P 500 in decades, even as operations remain strong.
• Valuation concerns: Many analysts describe the ~50x P/E as a “nosebleed” multiple for a retailer, with limited room for further multiple expansion.
• Long‑term enthusiasm: The same pieces almost universally praise Costco’s renewal rates, membership economics, culture and global runway, often framing the stock as a top long‑term compounder.
• Timing debate: Several conclude that while Costco may still be a core long‑term holding, new buyers might want to scale in slowly or wait for better entry points if interest rates stay high or if a recession weighs on discretionary spending.

In other words: almost nobody questions the business, but many debate the stock price.

Key dates and catalysts for COST in December 2025

If you’re following Costco stock through year‑end, there are two big calendar items to watch:

1. November Sales Results – December 3, 2025, 1:15 p.m. PT
   Costco will release November sales, a vital read on holiday‑season momentum and digital growth. ^[45]
2. Q1 2026 Earnings Results – December 11, 2025
   • Earnings release scheduled for 1:15 p.m. PT, with a conference call later that afternoon. ^[46]
   • Public.com and other outlets currently show a Q1 EPS estimate around $4.27. ^[47]

On that call, expect analysts to drill into:

• Membership trends and renewal rates,
• Tariff exposure and the status of the lawsuit,
• Digital penetration and big‑ticket categories,
• Any commentary on further warehouse expansion or special dividends (a periodic feature of Costco’s capital‑return playbook, though none are currently announced).

Risks and opportunities to watch

Major risks

1. Tariff and legal outcomes
   A Supreme Court decision upholding Trump’s tariffs wouldn’t necessarily worsen Costco’s current economics, but it would remove a potential upside catalyst and keep a structural cost layer in place.
2. Valuation compression
   If interest rates stay higher for longer, investors may be less willing to pay 50x earnings for even the best retail names. A shift from “growth at any price” to “growth at a reasonable price” could pressure COST’s multiple, even if earnings grow in line with forecasts. ^[48]
3. Membership fatigue
   While renewal rates are still extremely high, further declines — especially among newer, younger and more promotional sign‑ups — could weigh on the high‑margin fee stream that underpins Costco’s model. ^[49]
4. Competition and private‑label mix
   Competitors like Walmart/Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale are also investing in membership and digital capabilities. At the same time, Costco’s growing emphasis on Kirkland over some national brands is great for margins but must be managed carefully to avoid alienating shoppers who come for specific branded items. ^[50]

Key opportunities

1. Tariff refunds and margin upside
   A favorable Supreme Court ruling plus a successful lawsuit could deliver a meaningful one‑time cash inflow and potentially improved margins on some imported categories. ^[51]
2. Digital scale and “big‑and‑bulky” categories
   With digitally enabled sales already north of $27 billion, Costco has plenty of runway to improve last‑mile economics, expand delivery, and experiment with higher‑ticket items that benefit from its buying power. ^[52]
3. Younger member cohorts
   The increasing share of younger members, combined with perks like Instacart credits and extended hours, could support multi‑decade lifetime value, especially as Costco continues to grow its credit‑card, travel, and services offerings. ^[53]
4. Global expansion
   With fewer than 1,000 warehouses worldwide and massive underpenetrated markets, Costco still has room to expand internationally, potentially smoothing country‑specific macro or policy shocks over time. ^[54]

What this means for Costco stock investors

As of December 2, 2025, the big picture on COST looks like this:

• Business quality: Exceptional — high recurring revenue, strong comps, world‑class membership economics, manageable balance sheet.
• Growth profile: Still solid, with mid‑single‑digit sales growth and low‑double‑digit EPS growth expected into 2026–2027. ^[55]
• Valuation: Demanding, with P/E near 50x and forward multiples that sit far above peers.
• Near‑term catalysts: November sales (Dec. 3), Q1 2026 earnings (Dec. 11), and any new color on the tariff lawsuit and membership trends.
• Risk/reward: Most analysts see mid‑teens upside over the next 12 months, but much of that depends on the market’s willingness to maintain an unusually rich multiple for a mature retailer. ^[56]

For long‑term investors who prioritize durable business models over near‑term price swings, Costco still screens as one of the highest‑quality consumer stocks in the market. For more valuation‑sensitive buyers, today’s news flow — especially around tariffs and membership dynamics — may be a reason to follow the story closely through December’s data before deciding when (or whether) to add shares.

Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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