Vodafone Idea Share Price Jumps on AGR Relief Buzz: Latest News, Analyst Targets and Outlook (3 December 2025)

Vodafone Idea Ltd (NSE: IDEA, BSE: 532822) extended its sharp rally on 3 December 2025, with the stock trading around ₹10.5, up roughly 3.5–4% intraday, even as the broader Indian market stayed under pressure. The move comes amid heavy volumes, fresh speculation on government relief for adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues, and a mixed but noisy chorus of broker forecasts. ^[1]

Below is a detailed roundup of everything that matters today for Vodafone Idea’s share price, including the latest news, key numbers from recent results, and how analysts are valuing the stock.

Vodafone Idea share price today: rally extends on 3 December 2025

By midday on 3 December 2025, Vodafone Idea was quoted near ₹10.51, up 3.65% versus the previous close of ₹10.14. The stock has traded in a day range of ₹10.12–₹10.59, with combined NSE and BSE volume above 800 million shares, only slightly below its already elevated 20‑day average. The current market capitalisation is about ₹1.14 trillion (₹1,13,868 crore). ^[2]

Short-term performance has been equally dramatic:

Business Today notes that Vodafone Idea has gained about 6.3% over the last two sessions, with today’s intraday high around ₹10.57. ^[3]
Upstox highlights that the stock hit an intraday high of ₹10.58, with shares up over 4% in early trade and roughly 29% year‑to‑date. ^[4]
MarketsMojo data earlier in the session flagged exceptional trading volume – roughly 34.4 crore shares and value near ₹359 crore by 9:44 am, with the stock opening at ₹10.15 and briefly touching ₹10.58. ^[5]

From a longer lens, Vodafone Idea has staged a sharp rebound from distress levels: its 52‑week low of ₹6.12 in August 2025 has given way to a recent high of ₹11.08 in November 2025, implying an ~80% rebound in three months. ^[6]

Why Vodafone Idea is surging: AGR relief hopes back in focus

Supreme Court’s AGR ruling and government stake

The current narrative starts in November 2025, when India’s Supreme Court allowed the central government to reassess and reconcile Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, including interest and penalties. The clarification means New Delhi can now consider relief on the entire AGR liability, not just incremental amounts, and the stock jumped around 9–10% on the day of the ruling. ^[7]

That ruling lands on top of a big ownership change earlier this year. In April 2025, the government converted about ₹36,950 crore of spectrum-related dues into equity, lifting its stake in Vodafone Idea to roughly 48.99%, making it the single largest shareholder. ^[8]

Government review and minister’s comments

As of March 31, 2025, Vodafone Idea’s dues to the government totalled nearly ₹1.94 trillion, split between deferred spectrum dues (~₹1.18 trillion) and AGR liabilities (~₹0.76 trillion). ^[9]

Following the Supreme Court’s green light, the company has formally submitted a proposal seeking relief on its AGR obligations. According to reporting from HDFC Sky and other outlets: ^[10]

The Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia has confirmed that the government is examining what relief can be provided, in line with the Supreme Court judgment.
He has indicated that recommendations could be finalised within weeks, with a possible decision before the end of 2025.
Media coverage suggests the cabinet may meet as early as this week to discuss the relief proposal. ^[11]

Today’s twist: a clarification, not an announcement

On 2–3 December 2025, several media reports implied that AGR relief might be formally granted by year‑end, which drove a fresh bout of speculative buying. Stock exchanges (NSE and BSE) sought clarification, and Vodafone Idea responded that: ^[12]

It has already disclosed the Supreme Court order and AGR status in detail through earlier communications (October 27, 2025 and November 4, 2024).
There is no new decision yet; the company will update exchanges when there is any concrete development.

Despite the fairly cautious clarification, the stock continued to rally, with NDTV Profit and Business Today both recording gains of over 4% intraday and a two‑day advance above 6%. ^[13]

In short, today’s move is less about new facts and more about renewed optimism that the long-running AGR overhang might finally be restructured in Vodafone Idea’s favour.

Fundamentals: loss-making, but operational trends are improving

Today’s speculative flavour sits on top of tangible (if modest) operational progress. Vodafone Idea’s Q2 FY26 (July–September 2025) results show: ^[14]

Net loss narrowed to ₹5,524.2 crore from ₹7,175.9 crore a year earlier.
Revenue rose about 2.4% year‑on‑year to ₹11,190 crore.
EBITDA came in at ₹4,690 crore.
Capex was ₹1,750 crore for the quarter and ₹4,200 crore for the first half of FY26.
Average revenue per user (ARPU) improved to ₹180, up from ₹166 a year ago—an 8.7% increase, driven by tariff hikes and customers moving to higher‑value data plans.
The subscriber base stood at around 196.7 million, including 127.8 million 4G/5G users, up from 125.9 million a year earlier.
Debt from banks was about ₹1,530 crore, while cash and bank balances totalled ₹3,080 crore as of 30 September 2025.

External sector data suggests Vodafone Idea holds around 17–18% of India’s wireless market by subscribers, down from nearly 20% in 2023, underscoring that the company is still losing share to Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel even as it stabilises operations. ^[15]

Put simply:

Operating indicators (ARPU, 4G/5G adoption, revenue) are moving in the right direction,
But the company remains loss‑making and highly leveraged, with a heavy dependence on government support and capital‑market access to complete its turnaround. ^[16]

Tariff hikes, 5G rollout and a massive capex plan

The other big structural driver for Vodafone Idea is pricing power. Recent sector commentary suggests that Jio, Airtel and Vodafone Idea are preparing for broad tariff hikes from December 2025, roughly: TS2 Tech+1

Around 10% average increase across prepaid plans,
With some high‑end and long‑validity packs seeing increases of up to 20–25%,
Justified by escalating 5G‑related capex, spectrum costs and network opex.

On the investment side, analysis compiled by TS2.tech from company commentary and broker reports points to an ambitious medium‑term plan: TS2 Tech+1

Vodafone Idea is targeting roughly ₹50,000–55,000 crore in capex over the next ~3 years, conditional on securing new funding.
H1 FY26 capex of ~₹4,200 crore is expected to ramp up as fresh debt lines and possibly new equity are finalised.
The immediate priority is to expand 4G coverage to around 90% of India’s population, while rolling out 5G selectively in markets where handset adoption and enterprise demand justify the investment.
Management has also flagged a push into digital services, enterprise connectivity, fintech (Vi Finance) and IoT, aiming to reduce reliance on plain‑vanilla mobile voice and data revenues.

This capex plan is being steered by a revamped leadership team:

Abhijit Kishore, previously COO since 2015, took over as CEO on 19 August 2025 for a three‑year term.
Tejas Mehta, formerly CFO at Mondelez India, joined as CFO in October 2025. TS2 Tech

Analysts generally welcome the operational focus but stress that execution depends on funding—and that funding terms themselves will be heavily influenced by the AGR outcome and tariff discipline in the industry. ^[17]

Broker and model forecasts as of early December 2025

Street consensus: Neutral, with average targets below today’s price

Different data providers all tell a similar story: Vodafone Idea is widely covered, but not widely loved.

From LiveMint’s market stats page for Vodafone Idea (updated 3 December 2025): ^[18]

Around 20 analysts track the stock.
The overall risk label is “High risk”.
The stock is up 27.6% year‑to‑date and about 0.8% over the last five sessions.

Investing.com’s consensus estimates (21 analysts) show: ^[19]

Rating: Neutral overall.
Average 12‑month target: ≈ ₹8.9.
Target range:₹2.4 (low) to ₹15 (high).
Ratings split: roughly 5 Buy, 7 Hold, 9 Sell over the last few months.

TradingView’s aggregated forecast for NSE: IDEA shows a very similar average target around ₹8.8–₹8.9, with the same ₹2.4–₹15 range, implying modest downside from the current market price near ₹10.5. ^[20]

Trendlyne’s broker‑report aggregation is even more conservative: ^[21]

Average target: about ₹7.3 per share.
Implied downside: roughly 25–30% versus the current price.
Coverage skewed towards Hold/Sell calls, with multiple reports emphasising that debt funding and AGR resolution remain critical to long‑term survival.

Named broker views

TS2.tech’s synthesis of recent notes from major houses captures the dispersion well: TS2 Tech+1

Citi – Buy (High Risk), target ~₹14
- Sees Vodafone Idea as a high‑beta, high‑risk turnaround with 35–40% upside if AGR relief and tariff hikes translate into sustainable funding and margin expansion.
Motilal Oswal – Neutral, target ~₹10
- Upgraded from Sell (earlier target ~₹6–6.5) after the AGR judgment, but still cautious on leverage and subscriber losses.
UBS – Neutral, target ~₹9.7
- Recommends a wait‑and‑watch approach around capex execution and the final AGR relief quantum.
ICICI Securities – Hold, targets ₹7–10 across various notes
- Stresses that future capex “hinges on debt funding” and that relief plus fund‑raising must both show up to justify current valuations.
Edelweiss – Hold, target ~₹10
- Acknowledges better ARPU and lower losses but flags negative net worth and elevated interest costs.
Emkay – Sell, target ~₹6
- Treats the AGR judgment as a lifeline, but argues that the stock looks expensive without visible progress on funding and market‑share stabilisation.

Technical calls and near‑term trading levels

Business Today’s piece today quotes technical analysts who see Vodafone Idea as being in a positive short‑term trend: ^[22]

Support zones: around ₹9.0–₹9.5, with stronger support near ₹8.
Upside levels: a sustained move above ₹11 could open the way to ₹11.5 and beyond in the next leg of the rally.
One desk suggests traders use a stop‑loss near ₹10 to manage near‑term volatility.

Taken together, the forecasts imply that today’s price already embeds meaningful optimism about AGR relief and tariff‑led earnings recovery. Upside scenarios exist, but many institutional models still place fair value below the current market price, while flagging wide outcome dispersion. TS2 Tech+2Investing.com+2

Key upside triggers and risks as of 3 December 2025

Analyst commentary over the last few weeks largely agrees on the main swing factors for Vodafone Idea. Synthesising multiple research notes and explainer pieces: TS2 Tech+2Swastika Investmart+2

Bullish triggers

Material AGR relief
- A substantial reduction or restructuring of AGR dues, especially on interest and penalties, would ease annual cash outflows and improve the company’s net present value.
Successful, reasonably priced fund‑raising
- Bond issuance via the Vodafone Idea Telecom Infrastructure subsidiary is one step; Reuters reports the issue size was recently trimmed to ₹32 billion but still aims to fund expansion, at yields of 12–14%. ^[23]
- Longer term, the government is also scouting for a strategic investor willing to inject around $1 billion for a 12–13% stake, which could complement bank funding and private credit. ^[24]
Sector‑wide tariff hikes that stick
- If December’s price hikes are implemented across Jio, Airtel and Vi—and customer churn remains manageable—ARPU could continue to climb from today’s ₹180 level, pushing Vodafone Idea closer to cash‑flow breakeven. ^[25]
Execution on 5G and digital businesses
- Successful monetisation of enterprise, IoT and fintech offerings could gradually reduce dependence on low‑margin prepaid voice/data and support higher blended ARPU. TS2 Tech

Bearish risks

Limited or delayed AGR relief
- If the eventual government decision offers only modest relief, the debt overhang (nearly ₹2 trillion of government dues) will remain largely intact. ^[26]
Funding at punitive terms or short maturities
- Private‑credit style loans in the mid‑teens yield range may solve near‑term capex but lock the company into very high interest costs, increasing the risk of further equity dilution. ^[27]
Execution risk on network rollout
- Falling behind peers in 4G/5G coverage or quality could confine Vodafone Idea to lower‑value segments, capping ARPU despite tariff hikes. ^[28]
Persistent dilution and negative net worth
- With the government already owning about 49% and vendors like Nokia and Ericsson also taking equity against dues, existing shareholders face the risk of ongoing dilution until the balance sheet is rebuilt. ^[29]

What today’s move means for investors

As of 3 December 2025, Vodafone Idea sits at the intersection of:

Improving operating trends (higher ARPU, growing 4G/5G base, narrowing losses), ^[30]
A powerful policy and regulatory catalyst (AGR reassessment and potential relief within weeks), ^[31]
A still‑fragile capital structure (very large dues to the government, heavy capex needs, and reliance on high‑cost funding). ^[32]

Market pricing has moved ahead of the most cautious models:

Consensus targets from major aggregators cluster below today’s share price, in roughly the ₹7–9 range, even as a few bullish houses pitch numbers closer to ₹14–15. ^[33]
Technical analysts are happy to trade the trend as long as the stock holds above key support levels around ₹8–9. ^[34]

For now, Vodafone Idea remains a high‑beta, event‑driven turnaround story rather than a settled, compounding franchise. The next big inflection points for the stock are likely to be:

The actual text and quantum of AGR relief, if any;
The size, pricing and structure of upcoming fund‑raising (bonds, bank loans, potential strategic equity);
Evidence that tariff hikes and capex are translating into a durable shift in ARPU and cash flows. ^[35]

Vodafone Idea Share Price Jumps As Supreme Court Allows Centre To Reconsider AGR Issue