Antofagasta plc (LON: ANTO) Stock on 3 December 2025: New Highs, Copper Squeeze and 2026 Outlook

Antofagasta plc’s share price is pressing up against fresh records as of 3 December 2025, powered by a roaring copper market, tight concentrate supply and strong operational numbers – but also trading well above most analyst price targets.

On the London Stock Exchange, Antofagasta trades around 2,905p today, up about 4.8% on the session and just a whisker below its 52‑week high of 2,907p. Over the last 12 months the stock has surged roughly 62%, giving the Chilean copper producer a market cap of about £28.6 billion, with a rich trailing P/E of ~34.7x and EV/EBITDA above 10x. ^[1]

Below is a rundown of the latest news, forecasts and analyst views as of 3 December 2025 – plus what all of this might mean for the stock going into 2026.

Antofagasta share price today: trading at the top of the range

Market data from Investing.com shows Antofagasta changing hands at around 2,905p, having opened at 2,818p and traded in a day range of 2,806–2,907p. The 52‑week range now spans 1,279.5p to 2,907p, and the share price is flagged as “trading near 52‑week high.” ^[2]

Other key snapshot metrics today:

1‑year share price change: +61.6%
Market cap: ~£28.6bn
Trailing P/E: ~34.7x
EV/EBITDA: ~10.6x
Beta: ~1.25 (high-beta play on copper) ^[3]

Put simply: the market is paying “growth stock” multiples for a copper miner whose earnings and cash flow are tightly wired to metal prices.

Fresh headlines on 3 December 2025: new high and copper fee squeeze

MarketBeat: “Reaches New 1‑Year High – Here’s Why”

A new MarketBeat note published today highlights that Antofagasta has pushed to a fresh 1‑year high, with intraday trades around the upper 2,800s and volumes above recent averages. The article points out: ^[4]

The stock has rallied from a 12‑month low near 1,379p to its new high.
Balance sheet metrics remain solid, with current ratio above 2x and modest leverage relative to peers.
The shares trade on a P/E in the mid‑30s and a price‑to‑book of ~3.7x, well ahead of most diversified miners.
MarketBeat’s tracked broker set categorises the stock as a “Moderate Buy”, with 4 Buy and 2 Hold ratings and an average price target of roughly 2,694p – notably below today’s price.

So the technical story (fresh highs, strong momentum) is bullish, but the valuation story (targets below spot) is more cautious.

SP Angel & the copper concentrate crunch

Over in the commodities world, SP Angel’s Morning View today focuses on the escalating squeeze in copper concentrates: ^[5]

Copper futures have broken through previous records, with prices quoted around $11,400/t – above the 2024 peak.
Chinese smelters are reportedly in a stalemate with Codelco over 2026 treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs).
Earlier this year, Antofagasta and China’s Jinchuan agreed to set 2026 TC at zero, effectively saying “concentrate is so scarce we won’t charge you to process it.”

For a miner like Antofagasta, zero or ultra‑low TC/RCs are a big tell: the bottleneck is on the smelter side, and miners increasingly hold the bargaining power. That tightness supports high realised copper prices and underpins the share price strength, even as smelter margins get squeezed.

Production, costs and guidance: what Q3 2025 really said

The latest hard fundamentals still come from the Q3 2025 Production Report and associated coverage from Reuters. Together they paint a picture of a company growing steadily, cutting unit costs, and nudging guidance higher in quality if not in volume. ^[6]

Key points:

Q3 2025 copper production:161,800 tonnes, up about 1% quarter‑on‑quarter;
9M 2025 copper production:476,600 tonnes, up ~2.8% year‑on‑year.
Management still expects full‑year 2025 output at the lower end of its 660–700kt guidance range.
Net cash costs were cut sharply:
- Q3 net cash costs: $1.07/lb, down 4% QoQ;
- 9M 2025 net cash costs: $1.24/lb, with guidance lowered to $1.20–1.30/lb (from $1.45–1.65). ^[7]
Capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has been reduced from $3.9bn to $3.6bn, largely due to Chilean peso depreciation; analysts generally see this as a deferral rather than deep capex cuts. ^[8]
2026 copper production guidance:650–700kt, implying modest growth but no heroic ramp‑up next year. ^[9]

At the asset level, the report emphasised:

Los Pelambres as the main engine, with Q3 copper production of 73kt and improving by‑product credits (gold and molybdenum).
Centinela delivering strong year‑on‑year growth in copper output.
Gold and molybdenum production both running well ahead of 2024 on a year‑to‑date basis, helping drive those lower net cash costs. ^[10]

Operationally, this is a classic “sweet spot” for a miner: rising production, falling unit costs, and strong commodity prices.

Growth projects: Centinela, Los Pelambres and Zaldívar

The growth story is not just “copper price go up”.

Recent coverage and company materials highlight three core levers: Antofagasta+3TS2 Tech+3Investegate+3

Centinela Second Concentrator
- Now well into construction, designed to materially increase sulphide processing capacity and by‑product output (notably gold and moly).
- An investor and analyst site visit in November 2025 confirmed the project remains on schedule and within budget, with management showcasing technology, safety and automation efforts.
Los Pelambres desalination plant expansion & new concentrate pipeline
- Ongoing civil, electrical and pipeline works are aimed at improving water security and logistics resilience in a water‑stressed region of Chile.
Zaldívar mine life extension
- In May 2025, Chilean authorities approved an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) enabling Zaldívar’s mine life to be extended to 2051, with a transition from groundwater to seawater or third‑party water sources from 2028. ^[11]

These projects collectively underpin management commentary about ~30% medium‑term production growth and help justify why Antofagasta trades at a premium to many more diversified miners. TS2 Tech

Analyst ratings and price targets: market price ahead of the curve

Despite the strong operations, most major analyst sets now see the shares as ahead of fair value.

Investing.com consensus

Investing.com’s consensus summary (20 analysts) shows: ^[12]

Overall rating: Neutral
Breakdown: 7 Buy, 9 Hold, 4 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:2,625p
Target range:1,889p (low) to 3,386p (high)
Implied downside from ~2,905p: about ‑9.6%

MarketBeat coverage

MarketBeat, drawing on a slightly smaller broker set, currently records: ^[13]

Consensus: “Moderate Buy”
Sample: 6 analysts (4 Buy, 2 Hold)
Average price target: roughly 2,694p

It also notes several recent broker actions:

Deutsche Bank: raised target from 2,300p to 2,400p, rating Hold.
Morgan Stanley: target around 2,430p, Equal Weight.
JPMorgan: more bullish with a target near 3,300p, Overweight.

Stockopedia and others

Stockopedia, which blends fundamentals, momentum and valuation factors, classifies Antofagasta as a “High Flyer” – strong quality and momentum, but by no means cheap. It quotes: ^[14]

Consensus target price:2,572.5p, ~6–7% below a late‑November price of 2,758p.
Trailing dividend yield: ~1.1%.
Trailing P/E: ~29.7x at 2,758p (implying an even higher multiple at today’s 2,900‑plus level).

Overlay these with today’s live Investing.com data (P/E ~34.7x) and the basic pattern is clear: the share price has outrun the average analyst model, even as sentiment on copper has improved.

Earnings, margins and revenue forecasts

Consensus forecasts compiled by services such as StocksGuide and Investing.com point to very strong recent earnings growth, with more moderate but still healthy expansion into 2026. ^[15]

A simplified snapshot (numbers are approximations from recent consensus):

Revenue 2024: ~$5.0bn
Revenue 2025: ~$6.1bn (up ~22%)
EBITDA 2024: ~$2.4bn
EBITDA 2025: ~$3.5bn (up ~40%), implying EBITDA margins in the mid‑50s.
Net profit 2024 → 2025: from ~$0.63bn to ~$0.8bn, pushing net margins to around 13%.
EPS growth 2024 → 2025: mid‑20s % (roughly $0.64 to $0.81 per share).

On those numbers, at today’s London price the market is paying:

>30x trailing earnings,
high‑single‑digit EV/sales, and
low‑double‑digit EV/EBITDA. ^[16]

It is not a “deep value” copper play; it is priced more like a growth‑and‑quality compounder whose cash flows are nonetheless hostage to metal prices.

Short‑term technical signals: momentum with mild caution

Technical services tracking the US OTC listing ANFGF (Antofagasta’s US‑traded line) classify the stock as a “Hold/Accumulate” candidate after upgrading it from Sell in late November. ^[17]

Highlights from StockInvest.us as of 2 December 2025:

Shares around $36.10, roughly midway in a strong short‑term uptrend.
The system projects a 14–15% potential rise over the next three months within that trend, albeit with mixed moving‑average signals (short‑term buy vs long‑term sell).
A recent double‑bottom pattern generated a theoretical target around $40.5 within weeks, though the service still sticks with an overall Hold conclusion.

All of this fits with the “expensive but strong momentum” picture already painted by the fundamental data.

ESG and innovation: hydrogen trains and decarbonisation

The stock’s premium also reflects an increasingly prominent ESG and innovation story.

On 28 November 2025, Mining.com reported that FCAB, Antofagasta’s transport division, had launched Latin America’s first hydrogen‑powered freight locomotive to mark its 137th anniversary. ^[18]

Key details:

The locomotive uses renewable hydrogen with a hybrid fuel‑cell + battery system.
It delivers around 1,000kW of power while cutting locomotive weight by ~30 tonnes versus diesel designs.
A dedicated hydrogen refuelling station has been built in Antofagasta city.
The pilot is part of Antofagasta’s wider plan to cut Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% by 2035 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Coupled with the heavy investment in desalination and reduced reliance on freshwater at operations like Los Pelambres and Zaldívar, this sort of project strengthens Antofagasta’s profile with ESG‑constrained investors – a non‑trivial part of the shareholder base for a FTSE‑100‑class miner. ^[19]

Key risks highlighted by recent research

Recent broker notes, independent forecasts and company disclosures highlight a handful of recurring risk themes:

Copper price volatility
- Earnings and free cash flow are extremely sensitive to copper prices. Citi and other analysts have flagged that a move from today’s ultra‑bullish $11k/t environment toward an $8k/t bear case would significantly dent margins, even with lower net cash costs. ^[20]
Valuation and “priced for perfection” concerns
- Bernstein downgraded Antofagasta to Market Perform in late September, arguing that the shares had rallied beyond target prices and now embed a lot of good news. ^[21]
- Multiple consensus datasets (Investing.com, Stockopedia, StocksGuide) now show average targets below the market price, so upside requires either higher long‑term copper assumptions or better‑than‑forecast execution. ^[22]
Project execution and capex creep
- Centinela and Los Pelambres growth projects are large, multi‑year builds. Even if management insists they are on time and on budget, big projects are inherently vulnerable to cost inflation, delays and technical surprises. ^[23]
Chile‑specific regulatory and political risk
- All operating mines are in Chile, anchoring exposure to that country’s tax, royalty and environmental frameworks. While the Zaldívar EIA approval is a clear positive, there are also ongoing legal and community‑relations challenges around water use in northern Chile. ^[24]
Water, climate and social licence
- The Atacama region is both copper‑rich and water‑poor. Even with desalination and hydrogen trains, Antofagasta and peers face scrutiny over water use, ecosystems and Indigenous communities’ rights. ^[25]

Taken together, the risks don’t negate the bull case – but they narrow the margin of safety at current valuations.

Upcoming catalysts to watch

For investors tracking the stock from here, several near‑term milestones look important:

Ex‑dividend date (LSE): 4 December 2025 for a small interim payment (around 2.5p per share). ^[26]
Full‑year 2025 results: scheduled for 19 January 2026, which will lock in the final production, cost and dividend numbers. ^[27]
Q4 2025 production report: due 29 January 2026, expected to include full 2026 guidance for costs and capex – critical inputs for any valuation model. ^[28]
Medium‑term project updates: progress at Centinela Second Concentrator and the Los Pelambres desalination and pipeline projects, plus any fresh detail on Zaldívar’s extended mine plan. ^[29]

Positive surprises on unit costs, project timing or dividends could help justify the stretched multiple. Disappointments could puncture the current optimism fairly quickly.

So is Antofagasta plc stock a buy, hold or sell on 3 December 2025?

Framed in general, non‑personal terms (this is not individual investment advice):

Positives

Strong recent financial performance: higher production, much lower net cash costs and very high EBITDA margins. ^[30]
Credible path to ~30% medium‑term production growth via already‑funded projects. TS2 Tech+1
Structural tailwinds from the global energy transition, with multiple banks and commodity analysts expecting tight copper markets into the late 2020s. ^[31]
Growing ESG and decarbonisation credentials, from desalination to hydrogen locomotives. ^[32]

Cautions

The stock is now trading above most published 12‑month price targets, meaning new buyers are swimming against the consensus tide. ^[33]
Valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, price‑to‑book) are well above the mining sector average, leaving less room for error if copper prices cool off. ^[34]
Single‑country, copper‑centric exposure amplifies sensitivity to both Chile and the copper cycle – great on the way up, painful on the way down. ^[35]

For long‑term, high‑risk‑tolerant investors who are bullish on copper through the rest of the decade, Antofagasta currently looks like a high‑quality but not obviously cheap way to gain leveraged exposure to that theme. For more valuation‑sensitive or diversified investors, the combination of record prices, rich multiples and consensus targets below spot argues for caution, pausing, or demanding a pull‑back before getting involved.

Either way, the stock has become one of the purest live test cases of a big macro question on 3 December 2025: how much future copper scarcity is already priced in?