Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Stock on December 3, 2025: Price, Dividend Yield and Outlook After Record Q3 Results

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSX: CNQ; NYSE: CNQ) enters December 3, 2025 trading around C$46.94 in Toronto and US$33.55 in New York, near the upper end of its 52‑week range, and offering roughly a 5% dividend yield. ^[1]

After posting record third‑quarter production, hiking its dividend again and returning more than C$6 billion to shareholders year‑to‑date, CNQ is firmly in the spotlight for income and total‑return investors. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 3, 2025—structured for readers and algorithms alike.

1. CNQ Stock Snapshot on December 3, 2025

TSX (CNQ): About C$46.94, with a 52‑week range of roughly C$34.92–C$49.20 and market cap near C$97.8 billion. ^[3]
NYSE (CNQ): Around US$33.55 intraday, down about 1.4% on the session, implying a US$ market cap close to US$70 billion. ^[4]

On the U.S. listing, CNQ trades at about 14–15× trailing earnings with a forward dividend of ~US$1.66 per share, implying a yield near 5%. ^[5]

For Canadian investors, the TSX‑quoted dividend translates into a yield of roughly 5.0–5.3%, depending on the data provider and FX rate. ^[6]

2. Fresh Headlines Today: Institutional Moves and Momentum Signals

December 3, 2025 brings a cluster of institutional‑ownership stories:

Arrowstreet Capital cut its CNQ stake by about 29.7% in Q2, selling roughly 2.9 million shares and ending the period with ~6.9 million shares (about 0.33% of the company). ^[7]
1832 Asset Management L.P. trimmed its position by 1.6%, to about 31.3 million shares (roughly 1.5% ownership). ^[8]
Quadrature Capital has also significantly reduced its CNQ exposure, according to another MarketBeat filing. ^[9]

Despite selective selling, CNQ remains a big‑institution stock: roughly 74% of shares are held by institutional investors and hedge funds, including giants like Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, Canada Pension Plan and TD Asset Management. ^[10]

On the technical‑momentum side, Investor’s Business Daily reported today that CNQ’s Relative Strength Rating has risen to 73 (on a 1–99 scale), reflecting outperforming price action versus the broader market over the past year, though still shy of the “80+” level they often look for before major breakouts. ^[11]

3. Q3 2025: Record Production and Strong Cash Generation

CNQ’s recent fundamental story is dominated by its third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 6:

The company reported record corporate production of about 1,620,000 BOE/d, with record volumes in both liquids and natural gas. ^[12]
Adjusted net earnings came in around C$1.8 billion, while adjusted funds flow reached roughly C$3.9 billion. ^[13]
Management returned C$1.5 billion to shareholders in the quarter alone via dividends and share buybacks. ^[14]

Operating metrics underpin those profits:

In Q3 2025, natural gas production expense averaged C$1.16 per Mcf, down about 8% year‑over‑year. ^[15]
In the Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading segment, production expense averaged C$21.29 per barrel, broadly in line with the prior year. ^[16]

This combination—record volumes + tight cost control—is what allows CNQ to generate heavy free cash flow even with oil prices stuck around the high‑US$50s per barrel.

4. Dividend Profile: A 25‑Year Growth Streak and ~5% Yield

One of CNQ’s defining features in 2025 is its “heritage” dividend status:

The company has now delivered 25 consecutive years of dividend growth, with management highlighting a 21% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the payout over that period. ^[17]
On November 6, 2025, CNQ’s board declared a new quarterly dividend of C$0.5875 per share, payable January 6, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 12, 2025. ^[18]

Year‑to‑date to November 5, 2025, CNQ has returned about C$6.2 billion to shareholders, including C$4.9 billion in dividends and C$1.3 billion in share repurchases (~29.6 million shares retired at an average price of about C$42.92). ^[19]

On the U.S. listing:

Data providers estimate an annual dividend of about US$1.66–1.68 per share, with a yield close to 5% at recent prices. ^[20]
The next ex‑dividend date for CNQ’s NYSE‑traded shares is around December 12, 2025, reflecting the same underlying Canadian dividend schedule. ^[21]

CNQ also explicitly designates its payouts as “eligible dividends” for Canadian income‑tax purposes, which can be tax‑advantaged for many domestic investors. ^[22]

No surprise, then, that multiple commentators and research outlets describe CNQ as a “high‑yield energy powerhouse” and one of Canada’s standout dividend‑growth names for 2025. ^[23]

5. Strategy, Guidance and the AOSP Swap

2025 Capital Plan

Back in January, CNQ set a 2025 operating capital budget of about C$6 billion, aimed at:

Driving roughly 12% production growth versus 2024, to an average 1,510–1,555 MBOE/d,
Funding previously announced acquisitions, including assets tied to the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) and the Duvernay. ^[24]

The message from management has been consistent: “disciplined growth plus aggressive capital returns.” ^[25]

AOSP Asset Swap

On November 3, 2025, CNQ announced the closing of an asset swap with Shell Canada related to AOSP, adding further long‑life oil sands exposure while reshaping its portfolio. The same release updated 2025 guidance to reflect the new assets and higher expected production. ^[26]

The record Q3 results released days later showed that strategy in action, with TipRanks summarising how the acquisition of the Albian oil sands mines is expected to add about 31,000 bbl/d of bitumen production, strengthening CNQ’s long‑duration asset base and cash‑flow runway. ^[27]

Looking to 2026

A Reuters report in early November highlighted that CNQ is forecasting a modest increase in 2026 production while actually reducing total capital spending versus 2025, signalling continued focus on efficiency, free cash flow and shareholder returns, rather than aggressive volume chasing. ^[28]

6. Oil Price Backdrop: WTI Around US$59

CNQ’s fortunes are tightly linked to global crude prices. As of December 3, 2025:

Front‑month WTI crude trades around US$59 per barrel, up modestly on the day but still down double‑digits from levels seen earlier in the year. ^[29]
Reuters notes that oil prices remain under pressure from oversupply concerns and soft demand, even as markets watch Russia‑Ukraine peace efforts and ongoing sanctions for potential supply shocks. ^[30]

For CNQ, this is a “middle‑lane” price band: not boom‑time crude, but high enough that its low‑cost, long‑life oil sands and conventional assets can still throw off substantial cash, as the Q3 numbers show. ^[31]

7. How Wall Street and Bay Street See CNQ: Ratings and Price Targets

Analyst sentiment remains constructive to bullish entering December:

On the TSX listing, one data set shows an average 12‑month target of about C$52.95, with a high estimate of C$62 and a low around C$47. This implies roughly +12–13% upside from current levels, and the consensus rating is “Buy.” ^[32]
MarketBeat, tracking another analyst group, reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus on TSE:CNQ from 10 firms, with 4 holds, 5 buys and 1 strong buy, and an average 1‑year target near C$54.70. ^[33]

On the NYSE listing:

StockAnalysis lists one analyst with a US$62 target, implying about +80–85% upside from a recent U.S. price around US$33.55, and classifies CNQ as a “Buy.” ^[34]
Zacks aggregates a broader set of U.S. price targets ranging from roughly US$32.93 to US$45.09, with an average implying about +10.5% upside from a recent close near US$34.05. ^[35]

Longer‑term, some research suggests:

CNQ could reach about C$36.7 billion in revenue and C$8.1 billion in earnings by 2028, based on current analyst models shared via Yahoo Finance. ^[36]
Algorithmic services such as CoinCodex project shorter‑term appreciation of around +6–7% by late December 2025, and model a potential long‑run peak near US$73 per share by 2028, though they explicitly warn that such quantitative forecasts are speculative. ^[37]

Across this landscape, the common thread is that analysts generally:

Expect continued cash‑flow strength and dividend growth,
See moderate to meaningful upside from current prices,
Warn that outcomes remain highly sensitive to commodity prices and policy.

8. Technical Picture: Neutral Momentum, Up‑Trend Intact

Technical‑analysis dashboards currently paint a cautiously bullish picture for CNQ:

Investing.com lists a 14‑day RSI near 47, firmly in “neutral” territory (neither overbought nor oversold). ^[38]
The 5‑day moving average sits slightly above recent prices and flashes a short‑term Sell signal, but
The 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages (around C$47.0 and C$45.9 respectively) both still point to a longer‑term “Buy” trend, with price trading near or above those levels. ^[39]

Overlay that with IBD’s RS Rating of 73 and you get a stock that has:

Outperformed much of the market in the last year,
But is not yet at the classic “breakout” momentum thresholds, leaving room for both consolidation and further upside depending on oil prices and news flow. ^[40]

9. What Other Analysts Are Saying Right Now

Recent commentary around December 1–3, 2025 adds colour to the raw numbers:

A feature on TS2.tech frames 2025 as a year of record output, larger dividends and a 2026 growth plan, noting that CNQ trades near the upper end of its 52‑week range and highlighting the company’s ability to compound value even in a choppy commodity environment. TS2 Tech
NAI500 recently described CNQ as a “top choice now” for investors seeking nearly 5% yield after a ~16% pullback from all‑time highs, citing the company’s robust free cash flow and conservative balance sheet. ^[41]
Simply Wall St has emphasised that CNQ’s share price has delivered a total return of roughly 392% over the past five years, while still appearing reasonably valued versus their intrinsic‑value estimates around the C$52–53 mark. ^[42]
A recent Motley Fool Canada piece argues that the next three years could look “less cyclical and more compounding,” as CNQ’s long‑life, low‑decline reserves, steady capex and capital‑return policy smooth out some of the traditional boom‑bust pattern in energy stocks. ^[43]
Several writers, including on Seeking Alpha and NAi500, describe CNQ as an “income powerhouse” where dividends, buybacks and vast reserves jointly drive long‑term total returns. ^[44]

At the same time, some coverage—such as a recent Simply Wall St article—reminds investors not to ignore climate‑policy and environmental‑regulation risks, noting that heavier regulation or higher carbon prices could compress future returns even for efficient producers like CNQ. ^[45]

10. Key Opportunities and Risks for CNQ Shareholders

Potential Upside Drivers

Scale and Low‑Cost Reserves
CNQ’s massive oil‑sands and conventional resource base gives it decades of potential production, with unit costs that are competitive even at sub‑US$60 oil. Record Q3 volumes and manageable operating expenses underscore that advantage. ^[46]
Shareholder‑Return Framework
Management has repeatedly emphasised a simple formula: fund a disciplined capital program, maintain a strong balance sheet, and return “free” cash to investors via growing dividends and buybacks. The C$6.2 billion distributed year‑to‑date is tangible evidence of that commitment. ^[47]
Capital Discipline into 2026
The plan to raise production modestly while cutting capex in 2026 leans into the free‑cash‑flow story and could support further dividend increases or buybacks if oil prices cooperate. ^[48]
Supportive (If Volatile) Oil Market
While crude has softened over the year, current WTI levels around US$59/bbl are far from crisis territory and allow efficient producers to keep generating attractive returns. ^[49]

Major Risk Considerations

Commodity‑Price Exposure
A sustained drop in oil or natural‑gas prices—say, into the low‑US$40s for WTI—would pressure cash flow, potentially slowing dividend growth or buybacks.
Climate Policy and ESG Pressures
CNQ is an oil‑sands heavyweight. Tighter carbon‑pricing regimes, emissions caps or project‑approval constraints could increase costs and limit future growth, a risk highlighted in recent valuation commentary. ^[50]
Regulatory and Political Risk in Canada
Evolving federal and provincial policy on emissions, pipelines and indigenous consultation can affect timelines and economics for large resource projects.
Institutional Flows and Sentiment
Today’s 13F headlines show that even committed institutional holders adjust exposure—Arrowstreet, 1832 Asset Management and Quadrature have all trimmed stakes. While big managers like Vanguard and CPP remain heavily invested, shifts in institutional sentiment can amplify volatility. ^[51]

11. Bottom Line: What December 3, 2025 Means for CNQ

As of December 3, 2025, Canadian Natural Resources sits at an interesting crossroads:

The stock trades near the high end of its 52‑week range,
Offers a ~5% dividend yield backed by 25 years of uninterrupted growth,
Just delivered record quarterly production and hefty free cash flow,
And is still generally rated a Buy / Moderate Buy with double‑digit upside implied by most 12‑month price targets. ^[52]

At the same time, the energy cycle, oil prices and climate policy remain genuine wild cards. CNQ’s strategy of pairing disciplined capex with aggressive capital returns makes it a central name in the global oil‑and‑gas income space—but not a risk‑free one.

For readers discovering this via Google News or Discover, the key takeaway is simple:

CNQ is currently a high‑yield, large‑cap energy stock with strong recent execution and supportive analyst views, but its future returns will still hinge on commodity prices and the evolving regulatory landscape.

As always, this article is informational only and not investment advice. Before making any decisions, consider your risk tolerance, portfolio mix and, ideally, consult a qualified financial professional.