Canadian Natural lags TSX as buyback costs fall

Key facts: Oil prices have plunged to five-month lows amid a supply glut and demand worries. U.S. WTI crude recently hit about $58.7/barrel and Brent ~$62.7tradingnews.comrigzone.com – the weakest levels since May. Traders say the slide was triggered by rising OPEC+ output and a U.S.–China trade war scaretradingnews.comrigzone.com. The IEA now forecasts an unprecedented ~4 million barrels/day supply surplus in 2026rigzone.com. OPEC’s Secretary-General Haitham al Ghais warns $18.2 trillion of new oil investment is needed through 2050 to avoid future shortagestradingnews.com. Banks and analysts are growing bearish: Bank of America predicts Brent at ~$61 in Q4 2025 but says a worsening trade war and OPEC+ hikes could drive Brent below $50reuters.com. On the corporate side, Occidental Petroleum’s CEO expects oil to stay “tight and range-bound” around $58–62 through 2026tradingnews.com. Meanwhile U.S. producers like ExxonMobil see today’s oversupply as temporary, with long-term demand tightening absent new investmentreuters.com. Investors have rotated into safe-havens: gold just broke all-time highs above $4,200/oz as fear and Fed rate-cut bets sent money into bullionreuters.com. Even as oil crumbles, North American oil stocks have held up — e.g. Occidental’s stock is buoyed by a recent $9.7B Berkshire Hathaway dealts2.tech and Canadian Natural’s shares hit near three-year highs