Today: 3 July 2026
Canadian Natural lags TSX as buyback costs fall
3 July 2026
2 mins read

Canadian Natural lags TSX as buyback costs fall

TORONTO, July 3, 2026, 16:03 EDT

  • Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) traded 0.8% higher at C$56.67 as of 3:46 p.m. EDT, trailing the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which rose 0.91% at 3:47 p.m.
  • CNQ traded around 20% under its 52-week peak, while the TSX overall was off by about 1% from its high.
  • Shares were about 6% under Canadian Natural’s C$60.33 average buyback price as of May 6. That gives new repurchases some extra punch if cash flow is steady.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) moved higher late Friday in Toronto, though not quite catching up to the Canadian equity rally. Shares changed hands at C$56.67, up 0.8% as of 3:46 p.m. EDT. The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.91% to 35,283.92 a minute later. For the day, CNQ still lagged the broader market. Over the past year, the gap was wider: CNQ sat 20.2% under its 52-week high of C$70.99, while the TSX was only down 1.0% from its 52-week top.

Toronto traded a regular session. TMX says Canada Day, July 1, is the market holiday. The Toronto Stock Exchange kept its usual hours, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. CNQ’s U.S. shares didn’t move Friday with NYSE markets closed for Independence Day observed.

Late-Friday snapshotQuoteMoveDistance from 52-week high
Canadian Natural ResourcesC$56.67up 0.80%off 20.2%
S&P/TSX Composite Index35,283.92up 0.91%down 1.0%
Brent crude$71.94/bblup 0.19%
WTI crude$68.78/bblup 0.13%

Brent finished the week barely higher, adding 14 cents to $71.94 a barrel. WTI also edged up, up 9 cents at $68.78 by 2:31 p.m. ET. Reuters said both Brent and WTI touched their lowest marks since before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started in late February.

This is a factor for CNQ since the Canadian rally today wasn’t driven strictly by oil stocks. Reuters reported that miners led gains on the TSX after softer U.S. jobs numbers pushed gold higher and cut odds on more rate hikes. “Lower rate expectations weaken the U.S. dollar, boost gold and benefit Canadian resource stocks,” Matt Manara, executive vice president and portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management, told Reuters. Reuters

For CNQ, capital return numbers are the story. Canadian Natural said in May it had given back C$3.2 billion to shareholders so far this year through May 6, breaking down to C$2.5 billion in dividends and C$0.7 billion via buybacks. That’s about 2.7% of its C$117.65 billion market value as of late Friday.

Capital-return measureData point
First quarter direct payout to shareholdersC$1.5 billion
Returns to date as of May 6C$3.2 billion
Total shares bought back through May 611.3 million
Average price paid per share in buybacksC$60.33
CNQ closing price late FridayC$56.67
Friday close vs. buyback average-6.1%
Upcoming quarterly dividendC$0.625, payable July 7
Dividend yield on Friday close1.10%

The buyback math is what’s in focus for investors. At C$60.33, a C$1 billion buyback would take out about 16.6 million shares. At C$56.67, C$1 billion can retire around 17.6 million shares. That means at Friday’s price, Canadian Natural could buy 6.5% more stock with the same cash.

Canadian Natural’s next dividend is almost here. The company updated its dividend filing to confirm a C$0.625 quarterly payout, due July 7 for shareholders of record June 23. Based on the C$56.67 share price, that works out to a 1.10% yield for the quarter and C$2.50 annually if the dividend doesn’t change.

Canadian Natural gave its own May update. The company reported Q1 adjusted funds flow at C$4.4 billion, with total production coming in at about 1.64 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Oil sands mining and upgrading output averaged around 588,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude. Operating costs landed at C$23.73 a barrel.

The growth outlook is unclear. President Scott Stauth told analysts in May, “We need that pipeline to be able to grow oil sands in a significant way.” Reuters said a 150,000 barrel-per-day Jackpine expansion is still on hold as the company waits for more certainty on pipeline capacity. Reuters

Chief Financial Officer Victor Darel told investors in May the company would boost returns to shareholders to 100% of free cash flow once net debt drops to C$13 billion. The company’s next check-in is coming soon: Canadian Natural is set to report Q2 results on Aug. 6, with a call at 9:00 a.m. MT, 11:00 a.m. ET.

Roman Perkowski is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Cracow University of Economics, he previously worked in investment research and corporate finance. His coverage helps readers understand the key forces driving global financial markets and emerging industries.

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