Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) shares climb, tightening Agentforce discount as buybacks drive per-share increase

NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 11:06 a.m. EDT — U.S. trading session begins.

Salesforce rose 1.9% to $184.98 during morning trading on Wednesday.
On July 27, a valuation model lowered its price estimate for Salesforce by 2.63% to $241.72.
Repurchases in the first quarter totaled $27.1 billion. Agentforce generated $1.2 billion in annual recurring revenue.

Shares of Salesforce Inc. NYSE:CRM gained 1.9% to $184.98 on Wednesday morning. The recovery is narrowing the valuation gap at a pace exceeding the rise in estimates.

The stock rose 4.55% on Tuesday, as the Dow climbed 1.03%. Afterward, Simply Wall St’s valuation model reduced its estimate by 2.63%.

Recent analysis has produced contrasting opinions. An article featured on Yahoo Finance called Salesforce the Dow’s weakest stock. Meanwhile, 24/7 Wall St., in the same report, gave the stock a buy recommendation.

Independent estimates, rather than company projections, currently indicate varying timelines. Based on $184.98, the associated forecasts suggest:

Source and period	Estimate	Implied upside	Status
Simply Wall St model, July 27	$241.72	30.7%	LLM-powered forecast; trimmed by 2.63%
24/7 Wall St., 2026	$192.00	3.8%	Media projection
24/7 Wall St., 2027	$245.23	32.6%	Media projection

The 24/7 article referenced a price of $157.47. As of Wednesday, the quote was 17.5% higher than that mark. The estimated upside to $245.23 has narrowed, dropping from 55.7% to 32.6%.

Agentforce posted annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.2 billion. ARR reflects the yearly subscription run rate. The figure rose 205% compared to a year earlier.

This run rate represents approximately 2.6% of Salesforce’s projected fiscal 2027 revenue midpoint. The company’s management anticipates annual revenue to range from $45.9 billion to $46.2 billion.

Capital returns are conducted at a far greater magnitude. Salesforce bought back $27.1 billion worth of stock in its first quarter, an amount representing 22.6 times Agentforce ARR.

The buybacks made up 16.8% of Wednesday’s $161.2 billion market capitalization. Salesforce paid for a $25 billion accelerated share buyback via debt.

The number of diluted shares declined by 10.2% to 871 million from 970 million. Revenue increased by 13%, and GAAP diluted earnings per share surged 52%. The drop in share count further accentuated the gap between these growth rates.

Additional support came from investment gains. Strategic investments contributed $0.49 to diluted earnings per share for the quarter, compared to a reduction of $0.05 in earnings during the same period last year.

Chief Executive Marc Benioff described agentic AI as “the biggest growth opportunity for our customers, and for Salesforce.” President Robin Washington predicted an acceleration of organic revenue growth in the second half. SEC

The outlook for the full year anticipates an 11% increase in revenue, with Informatica contributing roughly three percentage points. For the second quarter, expectations are for the Informatica acquisition to account for just over four percentage points.

These numbers indicate that capital returns and investment gains account for a significant portion of the per-share speedup. Agentforce’s annual recurring revenue has grown by triple digits, yet overall group revenue has not risen at a similar pace.

Risks: Revenue from Agentforce could increase more slowly than its user base. The debt-financed buyback results in higher interest expenses. Integrating the proposed $3.6 billion Fin acquisition presents an additional challenge.

The publisher’s 2026 target is currently just 3.8% higher than the market. As a result, much of the associated bullish outlook depends on performance in 2027.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Editorial insight

How is CRM stock performing today?

Salesforce was last seen at $185.19 as of 10:48 a.m. Eastern, up 2.0%. The stock’s session range spanned from $176.85 to $185.92. SPY slipped 0.9%, QQQ declined 1.4%, and DIA retreated 1.6%. CRM outperformed each of these benchmarks. Its market cap was close to $161.3 billion at that time.

What has driven Salesforce’s strong rally this week?

CRM finished at $156.93 on July 23 before rising to $185.19 today, marking an 18.0% recovery in just four trading days. The Veterans Affairs deal announced on July 24 provided a company-specific boost, with a contract ceiling of $1.6 billion but a firm commitment for only one year. Extensions for the following two years require individual annual renewals. A wider rebound in software stocks also contributed, though it makes attribution difficult. Despite the surge, shares are still about 32% lower than the 52-week peak of $274. The Wall Street Journal

Did the most recent quarter surpass forecasts?

The company’s outperformance was widespread. Salesforce posted fiscal first-quarter revenue of $11.13 billion, an increase of 13% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share totaled $3.88, surpassing the $3.12 estimate from LSEG. GAAP EPS advanced 52% on the year to $2.42 for the period. Current remaining performance obligations rose 14% annually to $33.6 billion. GAAP operating margin was 21.1%, and free cash flow reached $6.6 billion. Salesforce Investor Relations

What does Salesforce need to achieve in its upcoming earnings report?

Salesforce projected Q2 revenue in the range of $11.27 billion to $11.35 billion, with the midpoint at $11.31 billion, below the LSEG consensus of $11.36 billion. For the quarter, the company forecast adjusted EPS between $3.25 and $3.27. Management expects current RPO growth to stay around 14%. FactSet cites September 2, though Salesforce has yet to confirm the date. A revenue beat alongside steady RPO growth would support the recovery outlook. Salesforce Investor Relations

Is Agentforce now significant enough to influence the stock?

Agentforce reported annual recurring revenue of $1.2 billion, up 205% on the year. Combined Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue approached $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion attributed to the acquired Informatica Cloud business. Premium Agentforce product bookings grew almost 60% year-over-year, with more than half of those bookings generated by existing Salesforce clients. Agentforce ARR accounts for approximately 2.6% of Salesforce’s fiscal 2027 revenue midpoint. ARR represents contracted recurring revenue, not recognized revenue. Salesforce Investor Relations

Does the $25 billion buyback generate value or add risk to the balance sheet?

Salesforce was initially allotted 103 million shares at an average price of $198.34. The current share price of $185.19 is around 7.1% lower than that average. The ASR boosted first-quarter diluted EPS by roughly $0.14. Debt principal totaled $39.5 billion against $11.8 billion in cash and securities. Quarterly interest expense jumped to $317 million from $68 million. Free-cash-flow growth guidance was reduced from 9%-10% to 4%-5%. The final outcome remains undetermined, which means the eventual repurchase economics could change. SEC

Is CRM still a bargain following its recovery?

CRM is currently valued at $185.19, representing about 23.3 times its projected FY27 GAAP EPS. On an adjusted EPS basis, it trades close to 13.1 times the midpoint of guidance. The difference is due to stock-based compensation, amortization, and other items not included in adjusted figures. FactSet data shows an average analyst price target of $237.27, with a median of $233. Analyst targets span from $160 to $400 per share. The average target suggests potential upside of about 28% from the current level. The broad target range points to particularly high analyst uncertainty. Salesforce Investor Relations

What is an expected price outlook for CRM ahead of the upcoming earnings release?

My central scenario projects a $170 to $205 range ahead of the next earnings update, based on revenue holding within the current guidance and cRPO growth nearing 14%. If revenue exceeds $11.35 billion, shares could potentially trade between $215 and $235. That ceiling is close to FactSet’s current $233 median analyst target. Conversely, if revenue falls below $11.27 billion, shares may move to the $150 to $165 range. After an 18% rebound over four sessions, broader forecast ranges are warranted. These are scenario-based projections rather than established market consensus. Salesforce Investor Relations

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Khadija Saeed is a financial markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and emerging industries. She studied economics and finance at the London School of Economics and previously worked in market research before moving into financial journalism. Her coverage focuses on the companies, innovations and economic trends influencing global investors. Follow Khadija Saeed on Google News.