Toronto, January 6, 2026, 04:55 EST — Premarket
- The S&P/TSX Composite hit a record close on Monday, led by miners and banks while energy slumped.
- Gold held near peak levels and copper stayed at records in Asia, while oil eased after Monday’s jump on Venezuela headlines.
- The Canadian dollar lagged on fears Venezuelan heavy crude could compete with Canadian barrels into U.S. refineries; traders are watching Friday’s Canada-U.S. jobs data for rate cues.
Canada’s TSX heads into Tuesday’s open still tethered to the geopolitical shock out of Venezuela, after the U.S. military captured President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend and Washington signalled a push to open up Venezuela’s oil industry.
The timing matters because the Canadian benchmark has just pushed to a fresh record, leaving less room for a stumble if commodity prices reverse or energy names stay under pressure. The S&P/TSX Composite ended Monday up 336.58 points, or 1.1%, at 32,219.95.
The index’s sector mix is the story: materials jumped 3.3% as gold surged, financials added 1.6%, and energy slid 3.6% as investors weighed what U.S. access to Venezuelan supply could mean for Canadian producers.
“Nothing can stop the freight train that is the TSX,” said Barry Schwartz, chief investment officer at Baskin Wealth Management. Reuters
Shopify climbed nearly 6% on Monday, helping lift the tech sector, while Canadian Natural Resources fell 6% as energy lagged the broader market. The TSX traded between 31,982.71 and 32,318.30 on the day, putting that 32,318 area on traders’ screens as the near-term level to beat.
In commodities, oil remains the key swing factor for Canada’s energy-heavy tape. Brent settled Monday at $61.76 a barrel and U.S. WTI at $58.32, and Aegis Hedging analysts said, “The unknown for the oil market is how oil flows from Venezuela will change.” Reuters
By early Tuesday in Asia, Brent and WTI were edging lower, while gold rose again after a sharp Monday rally, staying within sight of last month’s record peak as investors kept a bid under safe-haven assets — holdings people buy when risk rises.
The loonie is another pressure point, with the Venezuela story cutting across both oil and Canada’s terms of trade. “I think that Canada might be one of the losers from the U.S. invasion of Venezuela,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC, as the currency weakened to 1.3755 per U.S. dollar on Monday. Reuters
Canadian bond yields also eased, with the 10-year down 4.8 basis points — a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point — to 3.424%, Reuters reported. USD/CAD was last around 1.3766 in Tuesday’s trading.
Overnight equity cues stayed constructive. Wall Street closed higher on Monday — the Dow at a record — and Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said, “Energy stocks are really benefiting from the expectation that President Trump is intending to send them in.” Reuters
Asia extended a record run early Tuesday, with investors focusing more on momentum and upcoming U.S. data than on fresh Venezuela escalation signals from Washington. “Geopolitical concerns seem likely to persist in 2026,” said Yusuke Matsuo, senior market economist at Mizuho Securities, adding support for gold. Reuters
But the TSX’s resilience cuts both ways: a quick unwind in gold’s safe-haven bid, or clearer signals that Venezuelan heavy crude could compete with Canada’s supply into U.S. refineries, would keep the energy underperformance in play and test the index near record highs. “Early Monday’s flight into dollar safety proved very short-lived,” said Francesco Pesole, FX analyst at ING, a reminder that sentiment can flip quickly as macro data hits. Reuters+1
Canada has a lighter top-tier macro calendar on Tuesday, though Statistics Canada is due to publish releases including national tourism indicators at 8:30 a.m. ET. The next clear domestic catalysts are Thursday’s trade data and Friday’s Labour Force Survey, landing alongside the U.S. jobs report.
