Updated December 3, 2025
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has turned into one of 2025’s most surprising comeback stories. After years of lagging rivals, the stock has doubled this year and is now trading at fresh 52‑week highs, powered by three big storylines: a $208 million expansion in Malaysia, mounting evidence that Apple may become a foundry customer, and a historic 9.9% equity stake from the U.S. government. [1]
Below is a deep dive into what’s driving Intel stock right now, how Wall Street is valuing the rally, and what the latest forecasts and analyses say as of December 3, 2025.
Intel stock today: near record highs after a 2025 comeback
Intel shares closed Tuesday at $43.47, up 8.65% on the day, after touching an intraday high of $43.68. That move came on trading volume more than 50% above the stock’s recent average. [2]
This morning, Intel opened again around $43.47, putting the company’s:
- Market cap near $208 billion
- 12‑month trading range at roughly $17.67 – $43.68
- Trailing P/E ratio at an eye‑watering 4,351, off just $0.01 in earnings per share over the last four quarters [3]
Year‑to‑date, Intel stock is up about 90–100%, vastly outperforming high‑flying peers like Nvidia, which is up around 28% over the same period. [4]
That rally has been driven not by booming profits, but by a sharp shift in narrative: investors are suddenly willing to bet that Intel’s foundry turnaround and AI roadmap might actually work.
Malaysia expansion: $208 million to reinforce a key manufacturing hub
The most concrete catalyst this week is Intel’s decision to invest about $208 million to expand its assembly, testing, and advanced packaging facilities in Malaysia. [5]
Key points:
- The new investment builds on a prior $7 billion commitment (announced in 2021) to create an advanced chip‑packaging mega‑site in the country. [6]
- Malaysia is already one of Intel’s largest back‑end manufacturing hubs and accounts for a sizable piece of global chip assembly, testing, and packaging capacity. Estimates cited in recent coverage suggest Malaysia handles roughly 13% of global semiconductor assembly, test, and packaging. [7]
- Intel says the additional capital will support advanced packaging capabilities critical for AI accelerators and high‑performance computing chips, while improving delivery times for customers across Asia. [8]
Markets loved it. The Malaysia news helped push Intel stock above $43 and to a new 52‑week high, reinforcing the idea that the company is not just cutting costs, but also investing aggressively to rebuild its manufacturing edge. [9]
Apple foundry speculation: 18A process gets a potential flagship customer
The other major narrative is more speculative but arguably more powerful: Apple may be preparing to send some of its M‑series Mac and iPad chips to Intel’s upcoming 18A process node.
According to reporting from analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo and technical coverage from Tom’s Hardware: [10]
- Apple has signed an NDA with Intel and received a pre‑release version of the 18AP process design kit (PDK).
- Early internal simulations reportedly align well enough with expectations that Apple is now waiting on the full PDK 1.0 and 1.1 updates, targeted for early 2026.
- If everything stays on track, volume production could start as early as Q2–Q3 2027, with Intel fabbing Apple’s lowest‑end M‑series processors—chips used in MacBook Air and iPad Pro.
- Those products shipped roughly 20 million units in 2025, with forecasts calling for 15–20 million units annually in 2026–2027. [11]
For Apple, this would be a second‑source move: TSMC would remain the primary supplier for flagship chips, but Intel would give Apple added redundancy and more U.S.‑based capacity. For Intel, landing Apple—even on a slice of its portfolio—would be a massive symbolic win that validates its foundry technology to the most demanding customer in the world. [12]
This rumor alone helped send Intel stock up more than 10% during a shortened session in late November, making it the best‑performing stock in the S&P 500 that day. [13]
The U.S. government now owns 9.9% of Intel
One of the most unusual pieces of the Intel story in 2025 is who now sits near the top of the shareholder list: the U.S. government.
In August, Intel and the Trump administration announced that the federal government would buy 433.3 million newly issued Intel shares at $20.47 each—an $8.9 billion primary investment that translates to a 9.9% equity stake. [14]
Subsequent amendments to Intel’s CHIPS Act agreement mean:
- The total government investment tied to grants and equity now runs to roughly $11.1 billion. [15]
- The stake is described as non‑voting and “passive,” but Washington also received warrants that could push its ownership above 15% under certain conditions. [16]
This is an unprecedented industrial‑policy experiment: the U.S. is turning what would traditionally be subsidies into equity in the country’s only leading‑edge logic manufacturer.
There are benefits and risks:
- The stake strengthens Intel’s financing for its enormous U.S. fab build‑out and signals that the company is “too important to fail” in the eyes of policymakers. [17]
- Intel has warned in SEC filings and public comments that such a visible government ownership position could hurt international sales or complicate future grants, especially in markets sensitive to U.S. security policy. [18]
For equity investors, this stake both de‑risks Intel’s balance sheet and intertwines its fate even more tightly with geopolitics.
Earnings snapshot: modest growth, improving margins, cautious guidance
Fundamentally, Intel is still in early innings of a turnaround.
In Q3 2025, Intel reported: [19]
- Revenue: about $13.7 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year
- GAAP EPS:$0.90
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.23, beating a consensus near $0.00 by roughly $0.23
- Gross margin: up more than 23 percentage points vs. the prior year, driven by mix and cost cuts
- Operating expenses (R&D + SG&A): down roughly 20% year‑over‑year
The foundry business is still loss‑making, but the bleeding is slowing. Commentary from recent analyses citing Intel’s filings indicates: [20]
- Intel Foundry posted around a $2.3 billion operating loss in Q3, a big improvement from about $5.8 billion a year earlier.
- The Client Computing Group (CCG) remains the profit engine, with roughly $8.5 billion in revenue and 5% year‑over‑year growth.
- The Data Center & AI (DCAI) and Foundry segments were slightly down year‑over‑year, underscoring that AI benefits have not yet fully offset cloud and enterprise digestion cycles.
For Q4 2025, Intel has guided to: [21]
- Revenue:$12.8 – $13.8 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS: about $0.08
Wall Street, however, is still penciling in a weak full‑year:
- Consensus forecasts 2025 EPS at roughly –$0.11, improving to about $0.56 in 2026. [22]
That combination—sharply improved operations but still depressed earnings—is why Intel’s trailing P/E looks absurdly high and why most analyst targets sit below the current share price.
Foundry roadmap: 18A is real, 14A is already getting praise
Nearly all of the long‑term Intel story revolves around its foundry roadmap—specifically the 18A and 14A process nodes.
Recent technical reporting and analyst commentary highlight several points: [23]
- Intel has already produced more than 30,000 wafers on 18A in a single quarter, and process steps for certain layers have been cut from about 40 steps to fewer than 10, improving throughput and yields. [24]
- At a recent investor conference, Intel executives said 18A yields are ramping around 7% per month, keeping next‑generation Panther Lake CPUs on track for mass production. [25]
- 14A, slated for around 2027, will use High‑NA EUV lithography and is expected to deliver 15–20% better performance‑per‑watt or 25–35% lower power than 18A—but at meaningfully higher cost per wafer. [26]
- Early customer feedback on 14A has been described by industry analysts as “the real deal,” potentially competitive not only in data center and PCs but also in mobile chips—an area where Intel has historically struggled. [27]
On the customer side, Intel Foundry appears to be gaining real traction:
- Microsoft is reportedly planning to use Intel 18A for its next‑generation Maia AI accelerators, with multiple reports and industry chatter pointing to contracts for Maia 2 and Maia 3 on 18A/18A‑P. [28]
- Intel itself has disclosed that Intel Foundry’s lifetime deal value has already surpassed $15 billion, and it continues to target becoming the world’s No. 2 foundry by 2030. [29]
These developments underpin both the Malaysia expansion and the Apple speculation: advanced packaging in Malaysia supports the high‑density chiplets used in AI, while 18A/14A progress is the technological precondition for signing and keeping marquee foundry customers.
Intel stock forecast: what Wall Street is saying after the spike
Despite the massive rally and all the buzz, analysts are still cautious on Intel.
Consensus ratings and price targets
Across multiple platforms tracking analyst forecasts, the picture as of December 3, 2025 looks like this:
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Reduce”
- Breakdown: 2 Buy, 24 Hold, 8 Sell
- Average price target:$34.84, implying downside of roughly 20% from the current price. [30]
- TipRanks:
- Consensus rating: Hold (3 Buy, 25 Hold, 6 Sell over the last three months)
- Average target:$36.07, about 16–17% below where shares are trading now. [31]
- TradingView / GuruFocus (via a recent note syndicated on TradingView News):
- Average 1‑year target:$35.91 (36 analysts)
- High / low target range: about $18 – $52
- GF “fair value” estimate:$23.92, implying almost 45% downside from current levels. [32]
- Public.com forecast page:
- Consensus rating: Hold from 24 analysts
- Modelled 2025 price prediction: around $32.02 per share, also below the current quote. [33]
Analysts do expect earnings to recover materially over the next 12–24 months, but in aggregate they see Intel as fully priced or overvalued after the recent run.
Narrative‑driven analysis: take profits or stay for the turnaround?
More qualitative commentary is split:
- A widely circulated analysis hosted by Interactive Brokers (originally from The Tokenist) highlights Intel’s ~100% year‑to‑date rally and argues that its strategic positioning, government backing, and AI roadmap justify the comeback—but also suggests early‑year buyers may want to at least consider taking some profits with the stock now above earlier target zones around $38. [34]
- Other commentators emphasize how dependent the story is on flawless execution of the 18A and 14A roll‑out and on Intel’s ability to secure and retain external foundry customers like Microsoft and (potentially) Apple. [35]
The common thread: analysts acknowledge that Intel’s turnaround is more believable today than it was in 2023–2024, but most do not see the current price as a clear bargain.
Options market and sentiment: bullish positioning, binary outcomes
The options market adds another layer to the story.
According to an AI‑driven options analysis from AInvest: [36]
- On December 2, 2025, Intel saw about 1.09 million options contracts trade, with 73.9% of that volume in calls.
- One of the largest single trades was 26,000 March 2026 call contracts with a $50 strike, representing over $9 million in notional turnover.
- December‑dated options show roughly 70% bullish sentiment, but the platform’s own AI “rating” for Intel as an AI play is a middling 5/10, reflecting concerns about execution risk and competition.
In other words, speculative capital is very interested in Intel here, but those bets are high‑conviction, high‑risk wagers on the success of the foundry and AI strategy rather than on the current balance sheet.
Key risks: execution, capital intensity, and politics
Even the bullish analyses are clear that Intel’s rally sits on top of serious risks.
1. Foundry execution and capital intensity
- Intel Foundry remains unprofitable and will likely require tens of billions of dollars more in capex to sustain 18A and 14A ramps—especially with extremely expensive High‑NA EUV tools that can cost around $380 million each. [37]
- If Intel struggles to achieve competitive yields or fails to land sufficient volume from external customers, it could end up with underutilized fabs and structurally depressed margins.
2. Demand cyclicality
- PC demand, which underpins CCG, is vulnerable to macro slowdowns and what some analyses call the “worst period to build PCs” thanks to soaring memory prices—pressuring consumer upgrades even as AI PCs roll out. [38]
- Data‑center and AI spending is strong overall, but hyperscalers can shift quickly between vendors like Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and Samsung.
3. Political and geopolitical risk
- The 9.9% U.S. government stake may help Intel secure domestic projects and anchor funding, but Intel itself has warned that such visible state ownership could hurt international sales or complicate future grants, particularly in China and other sensitive markets. [39]
- Government contracts reportedly require Intel to maintain majority control over Intel Foundry, limiting the company’s flexibility to spin off or structurally separate the unit if it underperforms. [40]
Investors are essentially betting that Intel can thread all of these needles simultaneously: ship competitive leading‑edge nodes, fill fabs with high‑margin external demand, and navigate an unusually politicized capital structure.
What to watch next for Intel (INTC) stock
For traders and long‑term investors tracking Intel, several near‑term catalysts are likely to shape the next leg of the story:
- UBS Global Technology and AI Conference (Dec 3, 2025): Intel is scheduled to present at 1:15 p.m. PST. Any new color on foundry margins, 18A/14A progress, or Apple/Microsoft relationships could move the stock. [41]
- Q4 2025 earnings (expected Jan 29, 2026): This will test whether recent margin gains and cost cuts are sustainable and how much AI‑related demand is actually flowing through the income statement. [42]
- Further Apple and Microsoft news: Confirmations, design wins, or delays related to Apple’s M‑series on 18A or Microsoft’s Maia accelerators on Intel Foundry will heavily influence how credible the long‑term roadmap looks. [43]
- Additional CHIPS‑related developments: Any changes to U.S. policy, further funding, or international reactions to Washington’s equity stake could affect both Intel’s financing costs and its global customer relationships. [44]
Bottom line: Intel is back in the spotlight, but the price reflects it
As of December 3, 2025, Intel has transformed from a forgotten legacy chipmaker into a high‑beta macro‑and‑policy story at the heart of U.S. industrial strategy, AI infrastructure, and Apple’s supply‑chain diversification.
- The Malaysia expansion,
- The potential Apple foundry deal,
- The Microsoft AI accelerator contracts, and
- The U.S. government’s 9.9% stake
have collectively reignited enthusiasm for INTC stock. [45]
But with the share price now well above most published 12‑month targets, the market is clearly paying up for that story. Whether that premium proves justified will depend on Intel’s ability to execute on an extraordinarily ambitious technical and political roadmap.
References
1. m.economictimes.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. m.economictimes.com, 5. m.economictimes.com, 6. m.economictimes.com, 7. coincentral.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tomshardware.com, 11. www.tomshardware.com, 12. www.tomshardware.com, 13. m.economictimes.com, 14. www.intc.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.wisdomtree.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.intc.com, 20. www.interactivebrokers.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.interactivebrokers.com, 26. www.tomshardware.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.tomshardware.com, 29. www.intc.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.tradingview.com, 33. public.com, 34. www.interactivebrokers.com, 35. www.investopedia.com, 36. www.ainvest.com, 37. www.tomshardware.com, 38. www.interactivebrokers.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.tomshardware.com, 41. www.intc.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.tomshardware.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. m.economictimes.com
