Published December 3, 2025
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) – the consumer‑staples giant behind Tide, Pampers, Gillette and Olay – is back in the spotlight after a rare warning about weakening U.S. demand sent its stock toward a two‑year low. As of midday on December 3, 2025, PG was trading around $146 per share, only a few dollars above its 52‑week low near $142.50 and well below its high just under $180. [1]
At the same time, most Wall Street analysts still see double‑digit upside for the “dividend king” over the next 12 months, even as management flags a tougher near‑term backdrop for U.S. consumers. [2]
P&G stock on December 3, 2025: what just happened?
The immediate catalyst for the latest move in Procter & Gamble stock was CFO Andre Schulten’s candid assessment of the U.S. consumer at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on December 2. [3]
Schulten told investors that U.S. sales in the product categories where P&G competes were “down significantly” in October and likely in November as well, in both volume and value. He described the backdrop as “a tough context for the U.S. business,” citing: [4]
- Weaker demand as shoppers grow more cautious
- A volatile environment, including the impact of a U.S. government shutdown
- Pressure on monthly federal food assistance (SNAP), which disproportionately affects lower‑income households and staple purchases
Despite the downbeat tone on U.S. categories, Schulten stressed that these trends remain within the full‑year guidance range the company has already provided, and that the current quarter is likely to bear more of the impact than the fiscal year as a whole. [5]
The market reaction was swift:
- P&G shares fell as much as 3.3% intraday on Tuesday, touching their lowest level since December 2023, before closing down about 1.1%. [6]
- Coming into December 3, the stock was trading in the mid‑$140s, close to the bottom of its 52‑week range of roughly $142.51–$179.99. [7]
Investopedia and other outlets framed the move as P&G “hitting a two‑year low” driven by concerns over the health of the American economy and consumer spending power. [8]
Fundamental backdrop: solid Q1 FY2026 results and guidance reaffirmed
The bearish read‑through from Schulten’s comments comes on the heels of a reasonably strong first quarter of fiscal 2026, reported on October 24. [9]
From P&G’s Q1 FY2026 report:
- Net sales: $22.4 billion, up 3% year over year
- Organic sales: up 2%, with pricing and mix each contributing about 1 percentage point
- Diluted EPS:$1.95, up 21% (boosted by elevated restructuring charges in the prior‑year quarter)
- Core EPS:$1.99, up 3%, and slightly ahead of consensus estimates around $1.90–$1.93
- Operating cash flow: $5.4 billion
- Adjusted free cash flow productivity:102%
- Cash returned to shareholders: $3.8 billion in the quarter ($2.55B in dividends and $1.25B in share repurchases) [10]
Management reaffirmed its full‑year fiscal 2026 outlook, including: [11]
- All‑in net sales growth: 1–5%
- Organic sales growth: in‑line to up 4%
- Diluted EPS growth: 3–9% vs. fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.51
- Core EPS: $6.83–$7.09 (flat to up 4% vs. 2025), with a midpoint of $6.96 (+2%)
P&G also highlighted cost headwinds, including:
- About $100 million after‑tax from commodities
- Roughly $400 million after‑tax from higher tariffs
- Net headwinds from interest and tax roughly $250 million after‑tax
Collectively, these represent around $0.19 per share of EPS drag in fiscal 2026. [12]
To help offset that pressure, the company has leaned harder into pricing, productivity, and restructuring:
- Pricing and mix together added about 2 percentage points to organic growth in Q1. [13]
- P&G has announced mid‑single‑digit price increases on roughly 25% of its U.S. product portfolio, tied partly to higher tariff costs, usually paired with visible product improvements. [14]
- The company is rolling out a multi‑year productivity and organizational simplification program.
Restructuring, job cuts and AI‑driven efficiency
Behind the headline earnings numbers, P&G is in the middle of a sizable restructuring aimed at freeing up resources and future‑proofing margins in a tougher environment.
Key elements include:
- A plan to reduce up to 7,000 non‑manufacturing roles – up to 15% of the office workforce – over fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027, largely through organizational streamlining and technology‑enabled efficiency. [15]
- A broader “productivity and portfolio” program that uses automation and AI tools to simplify workflows and cut overhead, while focusing resources on core global brands and innovation platforms. (This has been referenced in recent P&G conference appearances and earnings commentary.) [16]
Interestingly, the restructuring is being launched not from a position of crisis, but from relative strength in P&G’s key categories:
- In Q1 FY2026, Beauty posted 6% net sales growth, powered by brands like Olay and SK‑II, while Grooming (Gillette, Venus) grew 5%. [17]
- P&G reported strong gains in Latin America and China, with high‑single‑digit net sales growth in both regions, reflecting improvement after earlier weakness in China. [18]
The message from management: P&G is using this period to reshape the cost base and reinvest in innovation and premiumization, even as it navigates a bumpier demand curve in its home U.S. market.
Leadership transition: a new CEO from January 1, 2026
Another medium‑term factor for PG stock is the upcoming CEO transition.
- P&G has named Shailesh Jejurikar, currently Chief Operating Officer, as the next Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2026.
- Current CEO Jon Moeller will transition to the role of executive chairman, maintaining continuity at the board level. [19]
Jejurikar is a P&G veteran with decades of experience across Health & Beauty Care and Fabric & Home Care, including responsibility for flagship brands such as Tide, Ariel and Downy. The leadership change comes at a time when P&G is juggling higher input costs, tariffs, restructuring, and pricing actions, and is viewed by many analysts as a “managed hand‑off” rather than a strategic reset. [20]
Dividend strength: a 69‑year increase streak and ~2.9% yield
For many investors, Procter & Gamble is primarily a dividend stock, and that story remains intact.
According to the company’s own disclosures and recent filings: [21]
- P&G has paid a dividend for 135 consecutive years (since 1890).
- It has increased its dividend for 69 consecutive years, placing it firmly among the market’s most established Dividend Aristocrats / Dividend Kings.
- The current annual dividend is about $4.23 per share, paid quarterly (roughly $1.06 per quarter).
- At recent prices in the mid‑$140s, that equates to a dividend yield around 2.8–2.9%. [22]
Third‑party data providers show a payout ratio of roughly 59–60% of earnings and long‑run annualised dividend growth around 5–6% over the past decade, indicating P&G still has room to both reinvest and return cash to shareholders. [23]
That combination – long streak, moderate payout, slow‑and‑steady growth – is why P&G appears regularly on lists of “safest dividend stocks” and core income holdings, even as its valuation and short‑term growth prospects remain hotly debated. [24]
How Wall Street sees PG now: Moderate Buy with mid‑$170s targets
Despite the recent price weakness and U.S. demand worries, most analyst aggregators paint a broadly constructive picture of P&G over the next 12 months.
Consensus rating
- MarketBeat (21 analysts over the last year) shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with 12 Buy and 9 Hold ratings. [25]
- StockAnalysis summarises 14 analysts with an overall “Buy” rating. [26]
- Across several Wall Street surveys, P&G is rated more positively than the average consumer‑staples peer group, which tends to skew toward “Hold”. [27]
Price targets and implied upside
While the exact numbers differ slightly by platform, the cluster of 12‑month price targets sits fairly tight:
- MarketBeat: average target $171.53 (high $209, low $153), implying about 17% upside from the mid‑$140s. [28]
- StockAnalysis: average target $174.43, or roughly 19% upside from current levels. [29]
- MarketWatch analyst estimates: average target around $170.05, with a range from $153 to $186. [30]
- Zacks price‑target snapshot: average short‑term target of about $169.77 based on 22 analysts. [31]
- ValueInvesting.io: average target $172.19, with a range of $146.90 to $195.30 across 35 analysts and a Buy consensus. [32]
- Quiver Quantitative: median target $172 from eight recent analyst notes, including:
- Barclays: $153, “Equal Weight”
- Wells Fargo: $170, “Overweight”
- UBS: $176, “Buy”
- Bank of America: $174, “Buy”
- BNP Paribas: $177, “Outperform”
- JPMorgan: $165, “Neutral” [33]
Taken together, the central tendency of forecasts suggests that Wall Street expects P&G to trade back into the low‑ to mid‑$170s over the next year, offering roughly 15–20% price upside plus a ~3% dividend yield, if things go roughly according to plan.
Ownership and flows: heavy institutional backing, mixed insider signals
P&G remains one of the most institutionally owned stocks in the market:
- MarketBeat’s 13F summaries indicate that institutional investors own about 65–66% of outstanding shares. [34]
Recent filings show big money moving both ways:
- Invesco Ltd. increased its stake by 21.4% in Q2, adding nearly 2.9 million shares to reach over 16.3 million shares (roughly 0.70% of the company). [35]
- Quantbot Technologies LP boosted its position by 173%, to about 55,968 shares. [36]
- CW Advisors LLC raised its holdings by 29.2% to about 194,000 shares, while Groupe la Française added 16.2% to hold around 102,455 shares. [37]
- Quiver Quantitative’s data show that in the last six months, 1,658 institutional investors added PG, while 2,082 reduced positions, underscoring an active tug‑of‑war rather than a one‑way stampede in or out. [38]
On the insider side:
- Over the past quarter, P&G insiders sold about 30,308 shares valued at roughly $4.6 million, including sales by CEO Gary Coombe and COO Shailesh Jejurikar, leaving insiders with around 0.20% ownership. [39]
- Quiver Quantitative counts 25 insider sale transactions and zero insider open‑market purchases within the last six months, a statistic that some investors view cautiously, though insider ownership is low to begin with. [40]
At the same time, members of the U.S. Congress have traded PG shares 18 times over the last six months (8 buys, 10 sells), reflecting its status as a widely held blue‑chip rather than providing a clear directional signal. [41]
Valuation: premium defensive, but off its highs
Where does that leave P&G on valuation?
Key snapshot metrics from mid‑day trading on December 3, 2025: [42]
- Share price: about $146
- Market cap: roughly $340–342 billion
- Trailing 12‑month EPS: about $6.85
- P/E ratio: around 21–22x
- Forward P/E: roughly 20–21x, based on fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and consensus
- Dividend yield:~2.9% on a $4.23 annual payout
- 52‑week range:$142.51–$179.99
- Beta: about 0.38–0.39, underscoring its low‑volatility, defensive profile
Coverage from platforms like Simply Wall St and TechStock² emphasises that, even after the recent pullback, P&G still trades at a premium valuation to the broader market, but at a discount to where it has often traded in calmer periods, especially given its long dividend track record and relatively stable earnings profile. TechStock²+2Quiver Quantitative+2
Several commentators, including The Motley Fool and Kiplinger, continue to argue that P&G looks like a core “sleep‑at‑night” holding for long‑term income investors, while AI‑driven platforms such as Danelfin assign more muted near‑term ratings (for example, an AI score of 4/10 and a Hold outlook over the next three months). TechStock²+2StockAnalysis+2
Key risks to the PG stock outlook
Despite the constructive long‑term narrative, today’s move underlines that P&G is not risk‑free:
- U.S. demand softness and SNAP headwinds
The CFO’s warning that U.S. category sales have been down “significantly” in both volume and value in October and likely November highlights the risk that price‑sensitive consumers are finally pushing back, especially as government support programs fluctuate. [43] - Tariffs and cost inflation
P&G has flagged roughly $1 billion in incremental pre‑tax tariff costs for fiscal 2026 and other cost pressures, forcing a mix of price increases and productivity measures. If competitors undercut P&G on price or if the consumer weakens further, that could pressure both volumes and margins. [44] - Execution on restructuring and workforce cuts
The plan to cut around 7,000 non‑manufacturing roles and substantially reshape how the company works carries execution risk: cost savings and agility are the goal, but any disruption to innovation or brand support could blunt growth. [45] - Leadership transition
While the Moeller‑to‑Jejurikar transition is designed to be smooth, leadership changes at global consumer giants always carry a degree of strategic and cultural uncertainty, especially around capital allocation and growth priorities. [46] - Valuation vs. interest rates
Even after the decline, PG trades at a low‑20s earnings multiple and sub‑3% yield at a time when cash and bonds can offer competitive yields with less volatility. That dynamic has been one factor behind the multiple compression in many consumer‑staples names, including P&G. TechStock²+2Webull+2
What to watch next for Procter & Gamble stock
Investors following PG from here will likely focus on a few catalysts:
- Q2 FY2026 earnings release and call, currently scheduled for January 22, 2026, which should provide hard data on the “significant” U.S. slowdown the CFO just flagged. [47]
- Holiday‑season sell‑through trends in U.S. staples categories, especially in channels serving lower‑income consumers and SNAP recipients. [48]
- Progress on restructuring, job cuts, and AI‑enabled productivity gains, and whether those translate into sustained margin resilience without sacrificing brand strength. [49]
- How the market digests the CEO transition to Shailesh Jejurikar and any updated long‑term strategy messaging that may accompany his first quarters as CEO. [50]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.businessoffashion.com, 4. www.businessoffashion.com, 5. www.businessoffashion.com, 6. www.businessoffashion.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.pginvestor.com, 10. www.pginvestor.com, 11. www.pginvestor.com, 12. www.pginvestor.com, 13. beautymatter.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. www.glossy.co, 16. www.pginvestor.com, 17. www.glossy.co, 18. www.glossy.co, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.pginvestor.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.koyfin.com, 24. www.kiplinger.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.zacks.com, 32. valueinvesting.io, 33. www.quiverquant.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.quiverquant.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.quiverquant.com, 41. www.quiverquant.com, 42. stockanalysis.com, 43. www.businessoffashion.com, 44. www.pginvestor.com, 45. www.glossy.co, 46. www.barrons.com, 47. www.pginvestor.com, 48. www.businessoffashion.com, 49. www.pginvestor.com, 50. www.barrons.com
