Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Stock: New Border‑Drone Contract, 700% Rally and 2025

Ondas Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) is back in the spotlight on December 3, 2025, after winning a strategic government tender to build an autonomous border‑protection system using “thousands of drones.” The news caps a year in which the AI‑drone and counter‑UAS specialist has delivered explosive revenue growth, raised its outlook again, and seen its share price multiply several times over — while still burning cash and drawing mixed valuation calls from analysts. ^[1]

As of the latest trade on Wednesday, ONDS was changing hands around $7.85, down roughly 3% on the day after swinging between about $7.47 and $8.80 on heavy volume. ^[2]

What Happened to ONDS Stock on December 3, 2025?

Early Wednesday, Ondas announced that its Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) unit has been selected as prime contractor in a multi‑year, multi‑phase government program to develop and deploy an autonomous border‑protection “system of systems” built around thousands of drones. The company expects an initial purchase order in January 2026 to launch the program, which it won against “major defense primes.” ^[3]

The stock initially spiked on the headlines, with outlets such as Investing.com and StreetInsider noting a pre‑market and early‑session jump as traders reacted to the size and strategic importance of the award. ^[4] Later in the session, however, shares reversed lower; Benzinga reported ONDS was down more than 5% intraday as profit‑taking and broader bearish momentum in high‑beta names kicked in. ^[5]

The volatile intraday pattern fits a familiar theme for 2025: ONDS has frequently swung double‑digit percentages in a single session as investors react to a steady stream of contract wins, capital raises, and changing expectations for its long‑term earnings power. Recent examples include:

November 13, 2025 – Shares jumped roughly 18–32% intraday after Ondas reported record Q3 results and raised 2025 guidance. ^[6]
Late November 2025 – Trading‑education and news platforms highlighted days where the stock fell 8% or more on worries about “financial struggles,” underscoring how quickly sentiment can turn. ^[7]

Inside the New Border‑Protection Drone Tender

The contract driving today’s headlines is more than a one‑off order. According to Ondas’ press release and third‑party summaries, the program features several key elements: ^[8]

Scope and timeline
- Multi‑year, multi‑phase program to develop and deploy an autonomous border‑protection system.
- Initial purchase order expected in January 2026, with subsequent phases extending over at least two years.
Scale
- The system is expected to use thousands of autonomous drones, integrated with ground infrastructure and advanced communications.
Technology stack
- Real‑time sensor fusion.
- AI‑driven detection and targeting.
- Automated swarm operations for persistent coverage of border areas.
Competitive positioning
- OAS was selected as prime contractor after a competitive tender in which, according to Ondas, it outperformed “major defense primes” on key criteria. ^[9]

The award directly leverages Ondas’ core portfolio — drone‑in‑a‑box platforms like the Optimus and Iron Drone Raider, private wireless networks from Ondas Networks, and software for autonomous operations. ^[10]

Contract Momentum: Counter‑UAS, Airports and European Security

Today’s border‑security news follows a rapid cadence of contract announcements, particularly in counter‑UAS (CUAS) and airport defense:

December 1, 2025 – $8.2 million counter‑UAS order
Ondas announced its second ~$8.2 million order in two weeks from a major European security authority. The latest order deploys multiple Iron Drone Raider systems to protect a second large international airport, expanding an integrated autonomous CUAS architecture delivered by OAS subsidiary Airobotics. ^[11]
November 17, 2025 – prior $8.2 million CUAS order
The December airport order follows an earlier $8.2 million contract from the same authority, underscoring repeat business and growing European demand for automated drone defense. ^[12]
Sentrycs acquisition and airspace security
Q3 materials and subsequent coverage highlight a pending acquisition of Sentrycs, whose Cyber‑over‑RF counter‑drone platform is deployed across more than 25 countries. Ondas has framed this as central to building a full‑stack CUAS portfolio. ^[13]
Rift Dynamics “Wasp” munition drones
In October, Ondas placed an initial order for 500 Wasp munition drones from Rift Dynamics for U.S. defense customers, another step toward expanding its role in kinetic and non‑kinetic drone applications. ^[14]

Beyond defense, Ondas’ American Robotics unit secured additional FAA waivers in early 2025 to fly beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) from remote operations centers — a regulatory advantage that supports automated deployments in industrial and infrastructure settings. ^[15]

Taken together, the recent wins suggest Ondas is positioning itself as a systems integrator at the intersection of autonomous drones, CUAS, and mission‑critical wireless networks, rather than just a drone hardware vendor.

2025 Financials: Explosive Revenue, Persistent Losses

Ondas’ 2025 numbers show dramatic top‑line growth powered by OAS — and equally significant losses as the company invests heavily in R&D, acquisitions and commercial ramp‑up.

Q1 and Q2 2025: Laying the foundation

Q1 2025
- Management described the company as “entering 2025 with strong momentum,” citing OAS performance, expanding defense and homeland‑security customers, and a backlog carried over from 2024.
- Ondas ended Q1 with over $25 million in cash and a backlog of about $10 million from 2024 contracts. ^[16]
Q2 2025
- Revenue climbed to $6.3 million, up 555% year‑over‑year and 48% sequentially from Q1’s ~$4.2 million. ^[17]
- The quarter was driven primarily by deliveries of Iron Drone and Optimus systems to military and public‑safety customers. ^[18]

Q3 2025: Record revenue and raised guidance

By Q3, growth accelerated further:

Revenue:
- Record $10.1 million, up about 582% versus Q3 2024 and roughly 60% sequentially versus Q2. ^[19]
- OAS contributed roughly $10 million of that total, making the drone and CUAS business effectively the entire revenue engine. ^[20]
Profitability:
- Net loss of $7.48 million, an improvement from a $9.53 million loss in Q3 2024, but still deep in the red. ^[21]
- Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to about $8.76 million due to higher operating expenses (~$11.6 million in cash OpEx). ^[22]
Backlog and outlook:
- Consolidated backlog reached approximately $23.3 million at quarter end. ^[23]
- Ondas raised its 2025 revenue target from at least $25 million to at least $36 million, and introduced a 2026 target of at least $110 million. ^[24]

Zacks later reiterated the $36 million 2025 revenue expectation and pegged Q3 backlog at around $22.2 million, attributing growth to strong demand for the Optimus and Iron Drone platforms. ^[25]

Analyst summaries of the Q3 results note both sides of the story: rapid revenue expansion and a bigger addressable market, but also high cash burn and a long runway before consistent profitability.

Cash, Capital Raise and Dilution Risk

A major piece of the Ondas puzzle in 2025 is its balance sheet.

In October, Ondas announced it had priced a $425 million underwritten offering of common stock and pre‑funded warrants, together described as “common stock equivalents,” each packaged with warrants to buy additional shares: ^[26]

Offering terms
- 19.56 million shares plus 17.4 million pre‑funded warrants (36.96 million common‑stock equivalents) sold at $11.50 per unit.
- Each unit included two common‑stock warrants with an exercise price of $20.00.
- Gross proceeds of $425 million, before underwriting fees and expenses.
- If all warrants are exercised for cash, Ondas could theoretically raise about $1.5 billion more, though there is no guarantee any will be exercised.

Investing.com’s Q3 analysis notes that, after equity offerings and warrant exercises, Ondas’ cash and restricted cash balance had swelled to roughly $433 million by the end of Q3 2025, up from about $30 million at the end of 2024. ^[27]

For investors, that combination—large cash pile plus aggressive growth plans—cuts both ways:

The company now has substantial firepower to fund acquisitions, integration, and R&D.
The large share and warrant issuance significantly increases potential share count, raising dilution risk if long‑term earnings do not scale to match the bigger equity base.

How Big Is the ONDS Rally?

Despite frequent pullbacks, ONDS has been one of the most explosive performers in U.S. tech and defense this year:

A Zacks industry note cites a 737.3% share‑price gain over the past year. ^[28]
Simply Wall St calculates an 188% year‑to‑date return and an 824% total shareholder return over the last 12 months. ^[29]
FinanceCharts lists Ondas among the best‑performing information‑technology stocks, with a trailing 12‑month return figure around 730%. ^[30]
A Seeking Alpha deep‑dive similarly notes that ONDS has “surged over 700% in the past year,” highlighting how far expectations have run ahead. ^[31]

The takeaway: even after today’s pullback, ONDS trades at levels many multiples above where it started 2025, and price action has been extremely volatile in both directions.

What Are Analysts Forecasting for Ondas Stock?

Price targets: generally bullish, with wide ranges

Across traditional analyst coverage and aggregated platforms, most 12‑month price targets sit above the current share price, but with material dispersion:

Fintel / Nasdaq – The average one‑year target has been raised to $11.07 per share, up 14.29% from a prior $9.69 estimate. Target ranges run from $9.09 to $13.65, implying roughly 40–70% upside versus prices around $7–8 at recent closes. ^[32]
Zacks price‑target page – Cites an average target near $10, with a range of $10 to $13 and about 45% upside versus a recent close around $7.58. ^[33]
Yahoo Finance commentary – Notes that the consensus analyst target has recently climbed from about $9.50 to $10.86 per share. ^[34]

At the same time, Seeking Alpha’s “Growth Story Intact – But Market Looks Ahead Of The Numbers” article takes a more conservative view, arguing that the stock trades at a “substantial premium” to peers and the S&P 500 and assigning a $6.30 12‑month target—only modestly below where the stock trades today, but implying limited upside from levels at the time of publication. ^[35]

Earnings expectations: losses shrinking, but still losses

Consensus still expects red ink for the next several quarters:

MarketBeat and related coverage point to a full‑year 2025 EPS around –$0.53, with Q3 delivering –$0.06 versus a –$0.05 consensus estimate. ^[36]
TradingView and other forecast aggregators show next‑quarter EPS around –$0.04, consistent with a gradual improvement but still negative. ^[37]
Zacks notes that its 2025 loss estimate has narrowed to around –$0.29 per share, after upward revisions over the past month as revenue expectations rose. ^[38]

Different providers use different methodologies and time stamps, which explains the spread between –$0.53 and –$0.29, but all point to the same high‑level conclusion: Ondas is expected to remain unprofitable in 2025, albeit with improving metrics if management hits its revenue targets.

Algorithmic and technical forecasts

On the quantitative and technical side:

StockScan currently tags ONDS as a “Strong Buy” based on 17 technical indicators and neutral RSI, MACD and other oscillator readings. ^[39]
Curiously, the same model projects sharp nominal price declines in several out‑years (2026–2030) from today’s level, highlighting the limitations and internal inconsistencies of long‑dated algorithmic forecasts. ^[40]

Such model‑driven projections are best treated as rough scenario generators rather than precise roadmaps.

The Strategic Thesis: Why Bulls and Bears Disagree

Bull case: building a drone‑and‑CUAS platform with cash to spend

Supportive analysts and commentators typically point to: ^[41]

Explosive growth – 582% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with management targeting $36 million in 2025 and $110 million in 2026 revenue.
Contract momentum – Repeated multi‑million‑dollar orders for Optimus and Iron Drone Raider systems, two consecutive $8.2 million airport CUAS deals, and now a flagship border‑protection program.
Capital strength – Over $400 million in cash and equivalents after the October equity and warrant offering, giving Ondas the ability to continue acquiring complementary technologies (like Sentrycs) and funding integration.
Regulatory and technology moat – FAA BVLOS approvals, RAAS (Robot‑as‑a‑Service) deployment model, and a “system of systems” approach combining drones, sensors, networking, and AI.
Sector tailwinds – Rising global defense and homeland‑security spending on drones and CUAS systems, plus commercial demand in utilities, rail, oil & gas, and smart‑city infrastructure.

A separate Seeking Alpha article, “Cautiously Bullish On Explosive Revenue Growth,” lays out a bull case that hinges on Ondas actually achieving its aggressive revenue ramp (at least $36 million in 2025 and $110 million in 2026) and integrating multiple acquisitions expected to add tens of millions in incremental sales. ^[42]

Bear case: valuation, dilution and execution risk

Skeptics counter with several concerns: ^[43]

Valuation stretch – After a 700–800% 12‑month rally, several analysts argue that the market is already pricing in an extremely optimistic growth path, leaving limited room for error. One detailed valuation study assigns a 12‑month target of $6.30 and suggests Ondas would only reach a market‑like valuation by 2029 even if projections are met.
Ongoing losses – Despite revenue growth, Q3 still produced a ~$7.5 million net loss and an ~$8.8 million adjusted EBITDA loss, and consensus expects negative EPS again in 2025.
Dilution overhang – The $425 million equity and warrant deal dramatically increases potential share count. If earnings don’t ramp quickly enough, existing shareholders could see per‑share value eroded.
Execution complexity – Ondas is simultaneously:
- Scaling manufacturing (including via Detroit Manufacturing Systems in Michigan),
- Managing and integrating multiple acquisitions,
- Launching Ondas Capital as an investment platform, and
- Executing large, multi‑year government contracts.
  Any misstep in integration, product delivery, or regulatory compliance could hurt margins or growth. ^[44]
Volatility and sentiment risk – As recent “plummets” and big swings demonstrate, ONDS is heavily influenced by short‑term sentiment, making it unsuitable for investors who cannot tolerate large drawdowns. ^[45]

Bottom Line: What ONDS’ December 3 Move Means for Investors

The December 3, 2025 border‑security tender cements Ondas’ status as a serious player in autonomous defense systems, not just a niche drone manufacturer. Coupled with back‑to‑back European airport CUAS deals, a massive capital raise, and raised 2025–2026 revenue targets, the company has the ingredients for a high‑growth platform story. ^[46]

At the same time, ONDS remains:

Highly speculative,
Deeply unprofitable on current numbers, and
Exposed to valuation and dilution risk after an unprecedented share‑price surge.

Analyst price targets generally sit above the current share price, but they range from bearish fair‑value calls around $6–7 to bullish targets in the low‑teens, reflecting genuine disagreement about how much of Ondas’ ambitious roadmap is already priced in. ^[47]

For now, the December 3 tender reinforces the central narrative: Ondas is a high‑growth, high‑volatility pure play on autonomous drones and counter‑UAS — a story that hinges less on any single contract win and more on whether management can convert today’s backlog, acquisitions, and cash war chest into durable, profitable scale over the next several years.

References

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Stock: New Border‑Drone Contract, 700% Rally and 2025–2026 Forecasts