D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock on December 3, 2025: New U.S. Government Unit, Evercore’s $44 Target and What It Means for Investors

As of December 3, 2025, D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is again at the center of the quantum-computing story on Wall Street. A new U.S. government-focused business unit, a fresh “Outperform” initiation from Evercore ISI with a $44 price target, and a flurry of valuation debates have turned the stock into one of the most closely watched high‑risk tech names on the market. TS2 Tech+2Quantum Zeitgeist+2

Below is a detailed, SEO-friendly rundown of today’s news, analyst forecasts, fundamentals, bull vs. bear arguments, and what could move QBTS next. This article is informational only and not investment advice.

Quick Snapshot: QBTS Stock on December 3, 2025

Latest price: about $25.08 per share in regular trading, up roughly 11% on the day, after opening near $22.62 and trading as high as $25.40. ^[1]
Market cap: around $8 billion, based on recent filings and market data. TS2 Tech+1
2025 performance: QBTS is up about 168% year to date, even after a steep pullback from mid‑October highs. ^[2]
Volatility: The stock has routinely moved 10–30% in a single session, and November alone saw a drop of more than 30% as quantum peers IonQ and Rigetti sold off. ^[3]
Short interest: Short sellers remain active, with recent data showing short interest just over 19% of float. ^[4]

In other words, QBTS remains one of the most volatile, sentiment‑driven tech stocks on the NYSE.

Today’s Big Catalysts (December 3, 2025)

1. D-Wave Launches U.S. Government Business Unit

D-Wave has formally created a dedicated U.S. Government Business Unit to sell and support its quantum systems for federal customers, especially in defense, logistics and national security. ^[5]

Key points:

The new unit is led by Jack Sears Jr., who joins as Vice President of U.S. Government Solutions with more than 25 years of experience in defense and aerospace contracting, including proposal development and federal acquisition compliance. ^[6]
The move responds to growing demand from U.S. defense leadership for quantum technologies to optimize logistics, routing and other mission‑critical workloads. ^[7]
D-Wave’s Advantage2™ annealing quantum computer is now operational at Davidson Technologies in Huntsville, Alabama, where it is expected to tackle mission‑critical problems and, over time, sensitive applications for government customers. ^[8]

Coverage from Quantum Insider, Quantum Zeitgeist and BusinessWire-syndicated releases all stress that government and defense are now one of the central growth verticals for D-Wave rather than just a handful of pilot projects. ^[9]

Why it matters for the stock:

Government contracts can be large, multi‑year and sticky, which may smooth out D-Wave’s historically “lumpy” bookings. TS2 Tech+1
A live Advantage2 system tied to defense applications serves as a powerful signal that D-Wave’s machines are being used in real‑world, high‑stakes environments—not just lab experiments. ^[10]

2. Evercore ISI Initiates QBTS at “Outperform” With a $44 Price Target

Today, Evercore ISI initiated coverage of D-Wave Quantum with an “Outperform” rating and a $44 price target, almost double where shares traded before the recent rebound. TS2 Tech+1

According to coverage summarised by Investing.com and TechStock²: TS2 Tech+1

Evercore builds its model on projected 2035 earnings per share of about $2.61, applying a 40× P/E multiple and discounting back nine years to arrive at the $44 target.
The firm estimates D-Wave could capture around 12% of the global quantum-computing market, especially in the subset of workloads—roughly 15–25% of use cases—that annealing architectures can handle better than gate‑model rivals.
Evercore highlights D-Wave’s trailing triple‑digit revenue growth and very high gross margins as signs of an early‑stage but high‑value business. TS2 Tech+1

Crucially, Evercore’s target sits above the rest of the Street, making it one of the most bullish voices in the analyst community. TS2 Tech+1

3. Fresh Valuation Debates: “Overvalued?” vs “Long-Term Winner?”

A cluster of new analyses landed today and this week:

TipRanks asks bluntly whether “D-Wave Quantum Stock (QBTS) is Overvalued,” noting that:
- QBTS is up more than ~160–170% year to date.
- The shares trade at a price‑to‑sales multiple around 180×, far above typical tech stocks. TS2 Tech+1
- Revenue remains concentrated and lumpy, with a large part of recent sales tied to a single system upgrade. TS2 Tech
Yet on the same platform, the analyst consensus remains strongly positive:
- 9 analysts tracked by TipRanks rate QBTS a “Strong Buy”, with an average price target of about $38.89, implying roughly 70% upside from recent levels. ^[11]
Nasdaq’s feature, “QBTS Soars 168% in 2025: Should You Buy for 2026 or Wait for a Pullback?” frames the stock as a long‑term story with short‑term exhaustion, noting that:
- The shares are trading below their 50‑day moving average but above the 200‑day, a pattern often read as short‑term weakness within a still‑intact uptrend. ^[12]
A Motley Fool piece syndicated via AOL, “Is D-Wave Stock Yesterday’s News?”, points out that the share price has been cut roughly in half from mid‑October peaks, despite remaining far above where it started the year. ^[13]

Taken together, today’s commentary reflects a split screen: a consensus of bullish analysts on one side, and a rising chorus of commentators warning that expectations and valuation may be running ahead of reality. TS2 Tech+1

4. Quantum-Stock Boom and Bust Context

D-Wave’s moves today sit against a very choppy backdrop for quantum stocks:

On December 1, Benzinga reported a “Quantum Stocks Bleed Out” episode in November, with D-Wave dropping more than 30% in the month alongside sizable declines in IonQ and Rigetti. ^[14]
A Motley Fool analysis today asks whether IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave could plunge 80% or more, pointing to historical parallels with previous tech bubbles where early leaders eventually saw huge drawdowns. ^[15]
MarketBeat’s new “Top Quantum Computing Stocks To Research – December 3rd” list still places D-Wave among the top names to watch but labels the entire space as speculative, long‑horizon and suitable only for highly risk‑tolerant investors or diversified ETF exposure. ^[16]

In short, today’s rally is happening inside a sector that has already shown it can swing violently in both directions.

5. Insider-Style Selling: Small Rule 144 Notice

Adding nuance to the bullish headlines, a Form 144 filing published today shows a D-Wave holder planning to sell 7,000 Class A shares via J.P. Morgan on or around December 3, 2025, with an estimated value of about $158,000. The shares were originally received through restricted stock units for services rendered. ^[17]

The filing is small relative to a float of ~342 million shares and outstanding Class A count just over 10.5 million, and it’s flagged with “Low” impact and “Neutral” sentiment by the filing tracker—but it’s a reminder that equity compensation and potential dilution remain part of the story. ^[18]

Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets for D-Wave Quantum (2025–2026)

Street Consensus (MarketBeat)

MarketBeat’s latest forecast dashboard (updated today) shows: ^[19]

Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
Coverage:14 analysts over the last 12 months
- 12 Buy
- 1 Hold
- 1 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:$29.85
- High: $44.00
- Low: $9.00
- Implied upside from ~$25.09: about 19%

This places Evercore’s new $44 target at the very top of the Street range, while the low end ($9) reflects at least one very cautious view on long‑term execution and valuation. ^[20]

Other Named Targets (B. Riley, Stifel, Rosenblatt, Piper, Benchmark)

A broader survey of research compiled by Capital.com and others highlights several other banks: ^[21]

B. Riley Securities:
- Rating: Buy
- Target: $33 (raised from $22 in September 2025)
Stifel:
- Rating: Buy
- Target: $26 (initiation in August 2025)
Rosenblatt Securities:
- Rating: Buy
- Target: $30
Piper Sandler:
- Rating: Overweight
- Target: $22 (after a lift from $13)
Benchmark:
- Rating: Buy
- Target: $20

QuiverQuant’s aggregation of recent targets shows medians in the low‑to‑mid $30s, with several firms previously publishing objectives between $35 and $41. TS2 Tech

TipRanks vs MarketBeat: Different Samples, Same Message

TipRanks: “Strong Buy” consensus, 9 Buy ratings, and an average target near $38.89, implying ~70% upside. ^[22]
MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy” consensus, 14 analysts, $29.85 average, ~19% upside. ^[23]

The difference mostly reflects different analyst sets and methodologies, but both agree that most covering analysts still expect higher prices over the next year—even after the 2025 rally.

D-Wave’s Fundamentals: Fast Growth on a Small Base

Q3 2025 Results (Quarter Ended September 30, 2025)

D-Wave’s Q3 2025 earnings, reported November 6, underpin much of the current debate. ^[24]

Highlights:

Revenue:
- $3.7 million, up 100% year-over-year from $1.9 million in Q3 2024
- Up 8% sequentially from Q2 2025
Bookings:
- $2.4 million, +3% year-over-year
- Up 80% versus Q2 2025
- More than $12 million in additional bookings closed after quarter end
Customers:
- Over 100 revenue‑generating customers across the last four quarters, including large airlines, semiconductor foundries, banks and global enterprises.
Margins:
- GAAP gross margin 71.4%
- Non‑GAAP gross margin 77.7%
Losses:
- GAAP net loss $140 million, driven largely by about $121.9 million in non‑cash warrant‑related charges tied to the stock’s surge.
- Adjusted net loss more modest at $18.1 million.
Cash:
- Record cash balance of over $836 million, fueled mainly by warrant exercises and equity issuance, not by operating cash flow.

For the first nine months of 2025, revenue totaled $21.8 million, up 235% from the same period in 2024. ^[25]

Takeaway:

Bulls see a business that is finally scaling: rapidly growing revenue, expanding margins, and a deepening customer list. TS2 Tech+1
Bears stress that absolute revenue is still tiny, losses are large, and the capital structure has been heavily shaped by warrants and share issuance, with the risk of further dilution if cash burn remains high. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2

Technology and Strategy: Why D-Wave Is Different

Unlike many competitors focused solely on gate‑model quantum computers, D-Wave is:

The only commercial player currently pursuing both annealing and gate‑model systems, according to its own and industry reports. TS2 Tech+1
Generating revenue today mainly from its annealing systems—the Advantage and Advantage2 platforms—optimized for combinatorial optimization problems such as routing, scheduling, workforce planning and resource allocation. ^[26]
Investing heavily in a gate‑model roadmap based on fluxonium qubits and cryogenic control chips, with the goal of delivering a scalable gate‑model system in the future. ^[27]

Recent technical and commercial milestones include: ^[28]

Completion of fluxonium qubit and control‑chip fabrication, now being integrated.
A series of hybrid quantum‑classical proofs‑of‑concept, including:
- Manufacturing workflow optimization with BASF
- Route optimization with North Wales Police for improving incident response times
Deployment of Advantage2 systems in Italy and the U.S. (including the Alabama system for U.S. government missions).

This dual‑track strategy—monetizing annealing today while building gate‑model capabilities for tomorrow—is a core reason many analysts are willing to project decade‑long growth stories into their price targets. TS2 Tech+1

Bull Case for D-Wave Quantum Stock

Supporters of QBTS typically highlight several themes:

First-Mover in Commercial Quantum Annealing
D-Wave has been shipping commercial annealing systems for years and claims more than 200 million problems submitted by customers via its cloud platform. ^[29]
Real Revenue, Not Just Research Grants
Recent quarters have shown triple‑digit revenue growth, an expanding customer base, and high gross margins—evidence that D-Wave has a commercial path, not just a research program. ^[30]
Government and Enterprise Momentum
The new U.S. Government Business Unit and deployments in Italy and Alabama suggest growing institutional trust, especially in sensitive use cases like defense and law enforcement. ^[31]
Strong Liquidity
With over $800 million in cash, D-Wave appears to have a multi‑year runway to invest in R&D and go‑to‑market, even with ongoing losses—something many early‑stage tech firms lack. ^[32]
Supportive Analyst Community
The overwhelming majority of covering analysts rate the stock a Buy, and target medians in the high‑20s to mid‑30s indicate that, on average, Wall Street expects further upside over the next year. ^[33]

Bear Case: Valuation, Dilution and Hype Risk

Skeptics, including several independent analysts and at least one Seeking Alpha contributor who rates the stock a Sell, point to a very different set of concerns. ^[34]

Extreme Valuation
- TipRanks recently estimated D-Wave’s price‑to‑sales multiple at around 182×, and other commentators have calculated multiples north of 300× depending on the precise market‑cap and revenue inputs. TS2 Tech+1
- At a roughly $8 billion valuation on trailing revenue in the low‑20‑million range, D-Wave is priced for massive future success, leaving little margin for disappointment. ^[35]
Small Revenue Base, Persistent Losses
Despite rapid growth, quarterly revenue is still under $4 million, and even the adjusted net loss remains in the tens of millions per quarter. ^[36]
Dilution and Warrant Overhang
The company’s huge cash balance was built largely from warrant exercises and share issuance, and recent warrant redemptions added more capital while increasing share count. TS2 Tech+1
Sector Hype and Crash Risk
As the November “bleed out” showed, quantum stocks have already collapsed more than 30% in a single month, and historical analogies suggest that some early leaders in nascent tech booms eventually see 80%+ declines before a stable long‑term equilibrium emerges. ^[37]
Competition From Big Tech and Rivals
D-Wave faces competition both from public peers (IonQ, Rigetti, Quantum Computing Inc.) and from deep‑pocketed giants (IBM, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon) building their own quantum offerings. Some analysts question whether D-Wave can keep a durable moat in such a crowded, fast‑moving field. ^[38]

What to Watch Next for QBTS

From here, several catalysts could drive D-Wave Quantum’s stock up or down:

New U.S. Government Contracts
Any confirmation that the new business unit is landing multi‑year, high‑value contracts—especially in defense and critical infrastructure—would likely be seen as a major validation of the current strategy. ^[39]
Future Earnings (Q4 2025 and Beyond)
The Street will be watching whether D-Wave can sustain 80–100%+ revenue growth, improve adjusted losses, and demonstrate that bookings and revenue are broadening beyond a small set of large deals. ^[40]
Additional Analyst Coverage or Target Changes
New initiations from other major banks—or downgraded ratings if the stock stumbles—could materially shift sentiment, especially given how influential Evercore’s $44 call is today. TS2 Tech+1
Sector Sentiment in Quantum and AI
Quantum names often trade as a basket, reacting to funding news, government programs, and the broader AI and high‑growth tech environment. A renewed risk‑off phase could hit QBTS even if company‑specific news is positive. ^[41]
Regulatory Filings and Insider Activity
While today’s 7,000‑share Form 144 is minor, larger or more frequent sales from insiders or early holders could weigh on sentiment, particularly given the high valuation. ^[42]

Bottom Line: High Upside Story, High Risk Reality

On December 3, 2025, D-Wave Quantum sits at a crossroads:

Positive side:
- A new U.S. government unit gives structure to a promising defense and public‑sector pipeline.
- Evercore’s $44 target and a largely bullish analyst community underscore optimism about long‑term earnings power.
- Q3 results show rapid revenue growth, expanding margins, and strong cash reserves. TS2 Tech+2D-Wave Quantum+2
Negative side:
- The stock trades at extraordinary valuation multiples, with high volatility and sector‑wide hype risk.
- Fundamentals are improving from a very small base, and the path to sustainable profitability is still unclear.
- Independent analysts and commentators warn that even after a 50% drawdown from October highs, QBTS may still be “too expensive to buy” on a fundamental basis. ^[43]

For anyone following D-Wave Quantum, the key is to recognize that this is not a typical tech stock. It behaves more like an early‑stage, story‑driven venture investment sitting inside a public equity ticker—where potential long‑term rewards are balanced by the very real possibility of sharp, lasting drawdowns.

If you’re considering any investment decisions, it’s important to do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial advisor. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell QBTS or any other security.